United States Copper Index Fund ETV (ARCA: CPER)

Ultime notizie per United States Copper Index Fund ETV (ARCA:CPER)

USCF Investments

The investment seeks the daily changes in percentage terms of its shares' per share net asset value ("NAV") to reflect the daily changes in percentage terms of the SummerHaven Copper Index Total ReturnSM (the "SCI"), less CPER's expenses. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing in the Benchmark Component Copper Futures Contracts. The SCI is designed to reflect the performance of the investment returns from a portfolio of copper futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange, Inc. exchange ("COMEX").

United States Copper Index Fund *

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Dopo un rally del 100%, una società aurifera si quota al Nasdaq per cavalcare l&#39;onda del rialzo dell&#39;oro. Ecco di chi si tratta.

Un titolo minerario fa +100% da inizio anno e ora sbarca a Wall Street: ecco chi è

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Dazi USA sul metallo rosso in arrivo? Scommettere sul differenziale COMEX-LME: visione e timing dell&#39;investment bank.

Trading sul rame: la strategia dettagliata proposta da Goldman Sachs

They call it Dr. Copper for a reason. When the reddish-brown metal surges, it&#8217;s often a sign that the global economy is firing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-invest-in-copper">on all cylinders.</a>
Its role in everything from wiring and housing to electric vehicles makes it a bellwether for growth, investment and industrial demand. But this time, the diagnosis is political—not economic.
On July 23, copper — as tracked by the United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) — spiked to a new record high of $5.85 per pound, rising 15.5% month-to-date. It&#8217;s on track for the strongest monthly performance in nearly a decade.
And the catalyst? Not China. Not infrastructure. But tariffs.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="560" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-1024x560.png" alt="" class="wp-image-997482" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-1024x560.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-300x164.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-768x420.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-1536x840.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23114545/HG1_2025-07-23_17-16-32_09e8c-2048x1120.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Trump&#8217;s Copper Tariffs Trigger A Supply Panic</h3>
President Donald Trump's decision to slap a 50% tariff on copper imports—announced on July 8—has sent shockwaves through global metal markets, creating an arbitrage condition never seen before. 
A 50% tariff on copper imports makes foreign copper dramatically more expensive—effectively inflating prices and triggering a sharp squeeze on U.S. domestic supply.
U.S. COMEX copper futures are now trading at a 30% premium to London Metal Exchange (LME) contracts, as domestic buyers scramble to secure supply before tariffs hit. That spread is the widest on record.
Historically, pricing on the two exchanges has been similar, but in recent months, the U.S. premium has reflected market expectations for tariffs—and this spread has only widened.
According to Goldman Sachs analyst Eoin Dinsmore, the pricing gap reflects "a rush to front-run the tariff," as buyers hoard copper to avoid the looming import cost hike. 
He expects that "shipments into the U.S. will further accelerate ahead of the deadline," driving the arbitrage trade wider.
&#8220;Critical minerals, which are essential for a range of energy technologies and for the broader economy, have become a major focus in global policy and trade discussions,&#8221; wrote the International Energy Association (IEA) in its latest Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="560" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-1024x560.png" alt="" class="wp-image-997450" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-1024x560.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-300x164.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-768x420.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-1536x840.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/23113357/image-335-2048x1120.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">&#8216;None Of Us Own Enough Copper&#8217;</h3>
Otavio Costa, macro analyst at Crescat Capital, says copper has now entered a "price discovery phase," noting that despite record highs, the metal is still historically cheap relative to gold. 
The copper-to-gold ratio is approaching a key breakout level, and Costa sees plenty of room to run.
"None of us own enough copper," he posted, sharing an Elon Musk&#8216;s image of AI servers loaded with industrial cabling—suggesting copper demand from data centers and electrification is booming.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Worth highlighting: Despite copper reaching new highs, it remains at one of its most undervalued levels relative to gold in history. Notice that we are also approaching a potential major breakout in the copper-to-gold ratio. Copper has officially entered a price discovery… <a href="https://t.co/ja0R80STWv">pic.twitter.com/ja0R80STWv</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1948036471975510138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2025</a></blockquote>
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">None of us own enough copper. <a href="https://t.co/OxzYAOJlVU">https://t.co/OxzYAOJlVU</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1947718650431201439?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 22, 2025</a></blockquote>
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Copper's 30% US Premium Is A Goldmine For These Miners</h3>
The historic divergence between copper prices in New York and London—now above 30%—has opened a rare profit window for a select group of miners.
U.S. copper buyers are paying a steep premium as they rush to secure domestic supplies ahead of Trump&#8217;s 50% import tariff, which takes effect on Aug. 1.
That's a game-changer for producers with U.S.-based operations or short-haul logistics from Mexico or South America.
Top of the list is Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), which owns mines in Arizona and Peru and is considered the biggest beneficiary of the COMEX-LME spread. Then there's Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>), a major producer with strong exposure to Mexico and the U.S. market. 
Also worth watching: Lundin Mining Corp. (OTCPK: LUNMF), a smaller player with strategic output in Michigan and Chile.
Now Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46571202/nasdaq-100-technical-analysis-july-2025">This Nasdaq 100 Signal Last Flashed In 1999—What Came Next Was Insane </a></li>
</ul>
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Trump Shock Treatment Ignites Copper Boom—And It's Only Getting Started

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TECK

Shares of copper stocks are trading lower. The commodity may be experiencing volatility following President Trump's announcement of a 50% import tariff on the metal earlier this week.

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To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Copper At Record High</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-taco-trade-mc-07092025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows that copper jumped to a new high yesterday on Trump&#8217;s threat to impose 50% tariffs on copper.</li>
<li>The chart shows that zone 1, previously the resistance zone, has now become the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that copper is overbought but still has room to run.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume was heavy, indicating conviction.</li>
<li>There was a time when copper was in our ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.  If it was not for Trump often changing his mind, copper would have been added to our ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX), the world&#8217;s largest copper producer by mined volume is in our ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  In the Portfolio that surrounds our Core Model Portfolio, there are two other copper producers First Quantum Minerals Ltd (FQVLF) and Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB).  As full disclosure, yesterday a signal was given by us to take advantage of the strength in FQVLF by taking partial profits.</li>
<li>TGB provides an exceptional opportunity for investors who believe that Trump will not chicken out and actually impose large tariffs on imported copper.  The reason is the Florence Copper Project in Arizona, which is 100% owned by TGB.  As full disclosure, We gave a new signal this morning in our ZYX Buy on TGB to take partial profits.</li>
<li>Copper is important, especially for EVs, the electrification of the economy, and AI data centers.&nbsp; Copper is the third most consumed metal after iron and aluminum.&nbsp; About one-half of the copper used in the US is imported.&nbsp; Copper is also known as Dr. Copper due to the impact of copper on the economy.</li>
<li>Trump is also threatening a 200% tariff on pharmaceutical imports.&nbsp; So far, pharmaceutical stocks are only showing a mild reaction because the plan appears to be to give about 18 months for pharmaceutical supply chains to shift.</li>
<li>FOMC minutes will be released at 2 pm ET.  We will study them closely for clues about the Fed&#8217;s policies.  The FOMC minutes may be market moving.</li>
<li>In April 2025, when President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs and claimed he would have 90 trade deals in 90 days.&nbsp; The stock market believed Trump and staged a strong rally that is still continuing.&nbsp; The stock market kept going up when more announcements from the administration came out that they were close to several deals.&nbsp; Now, 90 days have passed, and Trump has extended the deadline from July 9th to August 1st; however, there are only two deals.&nbsp; One of those deals is with the UK and the other with Vietnam.&nbsp; There is also a partial deal with China.</li>
<li>You may be thinking that Trump produced only two deals when 90 were promised — this should cause the stock market to pull back.  However, the stock market is showing no signs of pulling back.  This is classic strong bull market behavior, where investors totally ignore the negative news and believe in the most positive interpretation of the news.  Historically in strong bull markets, the stock market gets totally divorced from reality.</li>
<li>Striking deals is proving more difficult than the administration thought.&nbsp; Now, Trump is sending letters to several countries threatening harsh tariffs.&nbsp; The stock market is seeing buying as more investors join the TACO(Trump Always Chickens Out) trade.&nbsp; Investors believe that when it is all said and done, Trump will likely give in, and the tariffs will not be as harsh.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is seeing buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors. 
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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Copper Hits A Record On Trump's Threat, More Investors Join TACO Trade, Fed Minutes Ahead

Gold and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper" rel="noreferrer noopener">copper producer</a> Aura Minerals (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ORAAF#OTCQX">ORAAF</a>) is preparing to raise approximately $210 million through a U.S. listing, aiming to expand its investor base beyond current markets in Canada and Brazil.
The company plans to offer 8.1 million shares and will list on the Nasdaq Global Select Market under the AUGO ticker.
Although headquartered in Florida, Aura has been listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX) and Brazil's B3 exchange. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2025/07/07/3111364/0/en/Aura-Announces-Launch-of-U-S-Public-Offering.html" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. listing</a> would open a new chapter for the company, providing access to the major capital market.
Proceeds from the offering will fund the $76 million cash portion of its June acquisition of Mineração Serra Grande from AngloGold Ashanti—a move that increases the miner's operation in Brazil.
Founder Paulo Carlos de Brito remains the controlling shareholder, holding around 53% of Aura's outstanding shares.
Aura's operations focus on the LATAM region. It operates in Brazil, Mexico, Honduras, and Colombia, with an additional project under development in Guatemala.
The firm dubbed its operational philosophy "360° Mining," encompassing sustainability, community engagement, and integrated value creation across the entire mining lifecycle.
Aura was named one of Benzinga's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/01/36452207/4-mining-stocks-to-watch-in-2024-aura-oceanagold-alphamin-b2gold" rel="noreferrer noopener">top four mining stocks for 2024</a>, attracting attention with value, improving all-in-sustaining costs, and a hefty dividend. The stock rose 85% in 2024 and accelerated its momentum in 2025, gaining nearly 100% year-to-date to reach a market capitalization of CA$2.67 billion ($1.96 billion).
The gold sector as a whole has benefited from favorable macroeconomic dynamics. Spot gold prices have surged 26.5% this year, driven by geopolitical instability, inflation hedging, and continued central bank buying. In May alone, central banks added a net 20 tons to global reserves.&nbsp;
"Gold remains one of the most optimal hedges for the unique combination of stagflation, recession, debasement, and U.S. policy risks," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/07/46233083/something-big-is-brewing-in-gold-stocks-and-the-dollar-jpmorgans-half-year-2025-outlook" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Strategy at JPMorgan.
The bank forecasts gold could average $3,675/oz in Q4 2025 and surpass $4,000 by 2026, supporting bullish sentiment in gold equities like Aura.
Top institutions, such as Bank of America and Goldman Sachs, lead Aura's U.S. offering. The final offer price will be based on the TSX closing price on July 14, ahead of the Nasdaq debut the following day.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/25/07/46275779/royal-gold-acquires-sandstorm-and-horizon-in-bold-expansion-move" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Royal Gold Acquires Sandstorm And Horizon In Bold Expansion Move</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock

Benzinga's Top Pick Aura Minerals Eyes $210 Million US Listing

The Mining Association of Canada (MAC) released a comprehensive report evaluating the sector's role in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/canada" rel="noreferrer noopener">country's economy</a> and providing an outlook.
The <a target="_blank" href="https://mining.ca/wp-content/uploads/dlm_uploads/2025/05/MAC-Report_2025-final-1.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a>, titled The Mining Story—Canadian Mining Industry Facts and Figures, sets the total value of mineral production at C$71.9 billion ($52 billion). The total GDP contribution was C$117 billion ($84.7 billion), around 4% of the national GDP.
"These numbers show the wealth that could come to Canada if we develop our mineral endowment," said MAC CEO Pierre Gratton. When mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction are included, the share of GDP rises to 5.1%.
Employment figures remained strong, with 430,000 direct jobs and 281,000 indirect ones, demonstrating the sector's high-quality employment footprint. However, Gratton cautioned against complacency. "Geopolitical challenges, national security concerns, the transition to a low-carbon economy and the basic need to build and sustain a strong economy in the face of tariffs will require far more mined materials than we currently produce," he said.
Gold and copper stood out as key minerals. Gold surpassed passenger vehicles as Canada's second-largest export, reaching a value of C$30.2 billion ($21.87 billion) and representing 4.6% of all merchandise exports. Its role as a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty boosted demand and helped Canada become a leading exporter.
Copper, whose cornerstone role in green energy technologies has been increasing, brought in C$38.9 billion ($28.17 billion). Production, which amounted to around 508,000 tons, is still historically low compared to highs from 2016, when production exceeded 650,000 tons.
Gratton clarified that Canada must improve investment conditions and streamline regulatory frameworks to accelerate mine development.
"To supply the resources that are needed, Canada must foster a more efficient investment and regulatory environment," he said, calling for better federal-provincial coordination, faster permitting, and enhanced Indigenous consultation to ensure mining projects are developed in a timely but responsible manner.
This push for regulatory efficiency has gained momentum in Ontario, where Premier Doug Ford's government introduced Bill 5, the Protect Ontario by Unleashing our Economy Act. Framed as a tool to cut through what Ford describes as "a maze of bureaucracy," the bill would enable the province to fast-track mining approvals by establishing special economic zones exempt from certain environmental regulations.
The Ford government argues that these reforms are critical to unlocking mineral wealth in areas like the Ring of Fire and improving Ontario's global competitiveness in mine development timelines. Critics, however, say the legislation reduces oversight too far.
"They're just using this as a pretext for doing what they wanted to do already and hoping that people won't notice that the two are not really connected," Jamie Kneen, co-founder of MiningWatch Canada, said, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-mining-bill-5-legislation-faster-approvals-1.7539045" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> CBC.
Despite claims that the bill will shorten approval timelines from four years to two, Keen said that economic factors—not just regulation—are often responsible for delays in mine development. He pointed out Generation Mining's (OTCQB:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GENMF#OTCQB">GENMF</a>) Marathon copper-palladium project, which paused for six years due to low prices. The mine was approved in 2022 but has yet to begin construction.
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/rumors/25/05/45562268/dundee-precious-metals-eyes-adriatic-metals-for-935-million-no-formal-offer-yet" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Dundee Precious Metals Eyes Adriatic Metals For $935 Million, No Formal Offer Yet</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by TimBrew via Shutterstock

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Gold, Copper Drive Canadian Mining As Industry Pushes For Reforms

The global copper market could experience a notable surplus over the next two years, as analysts anticipate rising production and weakening demand owing to<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/trade-war" rel="noreferrer noopener"> rising international trade tensions</a>.
The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) concluded its biannual meeting in Lisbon this week, revising the projections. It now expects a <a target="_blank" href="https://icsg.org/press-releases/#" rel="noreferrer noopener">surplus of 289,000 metric tons</a> in 2025, more than double the 138,000 surplus in 2024. For 2026, it forecasts a smaller but elevated surplus of 209,000 tons owing to concerns over the economic fallout from U.S. tariffs and reduced copper usage in key global markets.
ICSG attributes the widening surplus primarily to increasing mine and smelter output. Global copper mine production is forecast to grow by 2.3% next year to 23.5 million tons, with major contributions from the ramp-up of the Ivanhoe's (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IVPAF#OTCQX">IVPAF</a>) Kamoa-Kakula Complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Rio Tinto's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RIO#NYSE">RIO</a>) Oyu Tolgoi in Mongolia, and the new Malmyz project in Russia.
In 2026, ICSG expects mine supply to grow by a further 2.5%, bolstered by new or expanded capacity in China, Chile, and Zambia and a recovery in Indonesian output. A wave of smaller operations in countries like Iran, Brazil, Eritrea, Greece, and Angola will also contribute.
The Group anticipates refined copper output will increase by 2.9% in 2025, driven by smelting expansions in China and new capacity in India, Indonesia, and the DRC.
However, 2026 could see a contraction of 1.5% in refined output due to tighter concentrate availability, particularly for primary electrorefining. Secondary refined production, which could grow by 6.4%, will partially offset that decline, as countries invest in recycling capacity to reduce dependency on mined copper.
ICSG also downgraded its copper usage growth forecasts, citing weaker global economic prospects exacerbated by trade policy uncertainty. Refined copper usage is expected to grow by 2.4% in 2025, down from a previous forecast of 2.7%, and slow further to 1.8% in 2026.
China, the world's largest copper consumer, is forecast to see demand growth fall from 2% this year to just 0.8% next year. Other major markets, including Europe, Japan, and the United States, are expected to remain subdued, leaving broader Asia as the main driver.
While structural trends such as energy transition technology and digital infrastructure support the long-term demand for copper, the ICSG believes that current trade disruptions dampen near-term consumption.
Copper inventories on global exchanges rose by 25% in the first quarter of 2025, primarily due to a surge in holdings on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, further reinforcing the oversupply trend.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44988722/freeport-mcmoran-exceeds-q1-copper-sales-estimates-expects-lower-copper-costs-amid-tariff-concerns" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">World's Largest Copper Producer Freeport Estimates Proposed Tariffs Could Raise US Cost Of Goods Purchased By 5%</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by TimBrew via Shutterstock

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Global Tensions To Drive Two-Year Copper Surplus, Study Group Warns

KoBold Metals, the mining startup backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, is ready for a major expansion into the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) – a country with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" rel="noreferrer noopener">vast commodity wealth</a>, including cobalt, copper, and lithium.
"KoBold is committed to significant investments in the DRC, potentially amounting to billions of dollars. Our goal is to harness the country's rich mineral resources responsibly and sustainably," Benjamin Katabuka, the firm's newly appointed Director-General in the DRC, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3c5859db-2a46-4111-b823-865dc284c33b" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> to The Financial Times.
The United States has recently intensified its interest in securing African mineral resources to counter China's dominance. Massad Boulos, President Donald Trump's Senior Adviser for Africa, confirmed that the U.S. and the DRC have "charted a path forward" for a minerals partnership that could enhance American access to lithium, cobalt, and copper—resources critical for electric vehicles and energy storage.
KoBold Metals has shown keen interest in DRC's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44456007/gates-bezos-backed-startup-makes-move-for-dr-congos-lithium" rel="noreferrer noopener">lithium deposits</a>, which could become one of the largest lithium mines globally if legal disputes are resolved. CEO Gerard Barron presented the goal to "responsibly and economically deliver the world's first commercial-scale nodule project."
However, the DRC remains a difficult jurisdiction. Security concerns, such as the ongoing conflict with the M23 rebels, disrupt mining operations, particularly in the eastern regions. Per recent reports, Blackwater founder Erik Prince might provide an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/04/44885311/blackwater-founder-reaches-a-security-deal-with-dr-congo" rel="noreferrer noopener">initial security deployment</a> in the Katanga province.
Infrastructure challenges, including unreliable energy supplies, further complicate investment. "It's difficult to do business in the DRC," Katabuka acknowledged.
The DRC is the world's leading cobalt supplier and a major copper producer, two elements indispensable for EV batteries and green technologies. Yet, the country has faced criticism for human rights abuses and environmental concerns regarding its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2023/02/01/1152893248/red-cobalt-congo-drc-mining-siddharth-kara" rel="noreferrer noopener">mining practices</a>, which NPR dubbed "modern-day slavery."
KoBold's Machine Prospector uses advanced data modeling and AI to systematically analyze geochemical, geophysical, and geological datasets, allowing faster, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.koboldmetals.com/news/robust-and-ethical-cobalt-supply-for-the-electric-vehicle-revolution/" rel="noreferrer noopener">more accurate identification</a> of mineral prospects without relying solely on manual methods. This approach could enable KoBold to develop new, ethical sources of cobalt that meet rising demand.
So far, the firm has raised over $1 billion, with the latest $537 million round with backers such as Breakthrough Energy Ventures, Equinor, Mitsubishi Corporation, and Standard Investments. The firm's leadership, including founder Josh Goldman, has hinted that KoBold may eventually go public, but for now, it remains privately backed and focused on long-term strategic mineral exploration.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/45021300/golds-glitter-fades-what-etf-investors-need-to-know-now" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Gold's Glitter Fades? What ETF Investors Need To Know Now</a></li>
</ul>

BATT

CARZ

Fidelity Electric Vehicles and Future Transportation ETF

FDRV

KoBold Metals Prepares Billions To Develop Ethical Sources Of Critical Metals In DR Congo

Goldman Sachs is eyeing a high-reward opportunity in copper that could pay off big if the U.S. follows through on i<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">ts protectionist policy shift.</a>
In a note published on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs analysts led by Eoin Dinsmore outlined a bullish view on what they are calling "The Copper Tariff Trade," a strategy built on the expectation of a potential import tax from the Trump Administration.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Happening With Copper Tariffs?</h3>
In February, the Trump Administration launched a formal investigation into copper imports under Section 232 — a process used to determine if certain imports pose a national security risk. It's the same move that led to tariffs on steel and aluminum years ago.
&#8220;For metals there is a stated and very real commitment to tariffs, which we believe they will deliver on,&#8221; Dinsmore wrote.
Goldman Sachs thinks copper is next in line. The bank says there's a 90% chance the U.S. will impose a 25% import tariff on foreign copper, possibly as soon as June. But right now, markets are acting like there's only a 60% chance of that happening.
That's where the trade opportunity comes in.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trade: Bet On COMEX Over LME Copper</h3>
Goldman says the market is underpricing this risk and suggests a tactical move: go long the December 2025 COMEX–London Metal Exchange copper arbitrage.
The trade Goldman likes is based on the price difference between copper traded in the U.S. – on COMEX – and globally, on the London Metal Exchange.
In simpler terms, bet that U.S. copper prices will jump relative to global ones if tariffs are put in place. Right now, U.S. copper for December delivery is trading $1,707 per metric ton higher than global prices — an 18% premium.
If a 25% tariff becomes reality, Goldman says that spread should widen to $2,287 per ton.
The United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) is the only U.S.-listed ETF that invests in COMEX copper futures, offering investors direct exposure to U.S. copper prices tied to domestic market dynamics.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Fast Could Copper Tariffs Happen?</h3>
Goldman's base case assigns a 55% probability that the tariff will be announced by the end of June—just 125 days after the investigation began. 
This expectation is supported by a March 26 press report suggesting tariffs could arrive "within weeks." Another scenario, with a 30% probability, pushes the decision to August or early September, based on a 180-day timeline used in previous investigations of critical minerals.
Regardless of the exact timing, the final decision must be made by December 2025, which is why Goldman favors the December COMEX-LME arbitrage trade.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How High Could Tariff Rate On Copper Go?</h3>
Goldman's model suggests a "fair" probability-weighted tariff of 22.5% on U.S. copper imports. That figure comes from assigning a 90% probability to a full 25% tariff and 10% to a no-tariff scenario. 
Notably, the investment bank indicated that a middle-ground 10% tariff is "hard to rationalize," especially since copper was excluded from the baseline 10% tariffs already in effect.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Copper? National Security, Economic Policy, China's Dominance</h3>
The U.S. imports nearly 50% of the refined copper it uses — about 725,000 metric tons last year, worth around $7 billion. That's up from just 25% back in 2010.
Domestic copper production has dropped by 20% since 2010 due to high costs and tough regulations, while global production — mostly in China — has increased by 40%. So even as U.S. demand rises, more copper is coming from abroad, especially from countries like Chile, Peru and Canada.
&#8220;The Trump Administration believes the US&#8217; reliance on copper imports leaves consuming sectors vulnerable to supply disruptions,&#8221; Goldman Sachs stated.
This worries policymakers. Copper is used in defense systems, power grids, electric vehicles, and even AI technology — all areas closely tied to national and economic security.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Could Tariffs Boost US Copper Output?</h3>
Goldman expects tariffs to encourage more investment in copper recycling and might help restart idle smelters and refineries. It could also reduce demand for copper exports by making them pricier overseas.
The bigger shift could come from Washington's push to fast-track mining permits. If that goes through, U.S. copper mine production could get a real lift, yet not until the early 2030s.
Photo: Shutterstock

Goldman Sachs Backs 'Copper Tariff Trade' If Trump Slaps 25% Duty On US Imports

Copper experienced one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44663034/asia-in-freefall-hang-seng-posts-worst-drop-since-1997-europe-market-tumbles-oil-slips-gold-eases-global-markets-today-while-us-slept" rel="noreferrer noopener">most volatile trading days</a> in over 15 years, tumbling as much as 7.7% at the start of Monday's trading session in London.
Three-month contracts slid to $8,780 a ton as investors scrambled to reduce exposure—before staging a nearly $1,000 rebound in just over two hours—marking the largest intraday price swing since 2009.
"Metals are under significant pressure from dampened sentiment as the world braces for a possible recession and heightened geopolitical tensions that would threaten demand," Sabrin Chowdhury, head of commodities at BMI, said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/tariffs/2025/04/06/gold-falls-further-at-open-as-traders-assess-tariff-turmoil/" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> Bloomberg.
Copper's volatility recently surged as President Donald Trump's tariff threat hit both sides of the spectrum. The market rallied sharply in anticipation as the threat of copper being added to the list of targeted metals <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44498083/trumps-copper-tariffs-might-come-sooner-rather-than-later-insiders-warn" rel="noreferrer noopener">loomed in March</a>.
Traders raced to reroute shipments to the U.S., capitalizing on a premium in New York prices – even yesterday's selloff saw New York prices hovering much higher, around $10,000 per ton.
However, a possible recession quenched speculators' short-term thirst, as copper exceeded the broad sector decline before buyers stepped in to reverse the course. For Codelco chairman Maximo Pacheco, the logic behind the dip buying is obvious.
The fundamentals haven't changed at all," he <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-07/codelco-boss-keeps-faith-in-copper-fundamentals-amid-market-rout" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, citing sustained Chinese interest and a resilient U.S. market. China has been a notable copper buyer in times of price crunches, stepping in to recover the market in 2008 and 2020.
Codelco, the world's top copper supplier, plans to invest up to $5.6 billion in 2025 to rejuvenate aging mines and restore output to pre-2020 levels. The Chilean state-owned giant is also expanding into lithium, aiming to finalize a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/42840568/chiles-codelco-targets-turnaround-with-modest-copper-output-increase-and-strategic-lithium-ventures" rel="noreferrer noopener">key deal with </a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/42840568/chiles-codelco-targets-turnaround-with-modest-copper-output-increase-and-strategic-lithium-ventures" rel="noreferrer noopener">SQM</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/42840568/chiles-codelco-targets-turnaround-with-modest-copper-output-increase-and-strategic-lithium-ventures" rel="noreferrer noopener"> by Q3</a>.
The tariff uncertainty dominated discussions at this week's CESCO conference in Santiago, where Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) CEO Kathleen Quirk warned that trade wars could "cause people to not invest, to not buy, to change their patterns and affect demand."
Last month, Quirk noted that tariffs could boost her company's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44271394/goldman-sees-copper-imports-frontrunning-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit" rel="noreferrer noopener">annual profits by $500 million</a>, but she's well aware that the long-term industry outlook stretches beyond the short-term profit.
"All of us will rely on a market that will be growing in demand and not subject to these big recessions that we've seen over time," she said, according <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/freeport-mcmoran-ceo-flags-concern-over-global-growth-amid-us-tariffs-2025-04-07/" rel="noreferrer noopener">to</a> Reuters, recalling the effects of the Great Recession.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/management/25/04/44663078/barrick-gold-proposes-name-change-targets-30-production-growth-by-2030" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Barrick Gold Proposes Name Change, Targets 30% Production Growth By 2030</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Politics

Media

Copper's Rout Sees A Massive Intraday Price Swing, 'Fundamentals Haven't Changed,' Expert Says

Copper is red-hot, and so are <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs that track the industrial metal</a>. 
Prices rocketed to new records as traders responded to increasing talks of the U.S. imposing hefty tariffs on copper imports in the near future — several months before the schedule originally anticipated, according to Bloomberg citing sources familiar with the matter. 
The news rippled across global markets, sending U.S.-listed copper ETFs to record highs and fueling concerns of inflation and supply scarcity.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/03/44522702/blackrock-unveils-new-ishares-ibonds-etfs-for-fixed-income-investors">BlackRock Unveils New iShares iBonds ETFs For Fixed-Income Investors</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Copper ETFs Break Records</h1>
The copper price rally propelled ETFs tracking the metal to their highs. The $200.7 million United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) rose more than 3% on Wednesday before backing off, taking year-to-date gains to 30% (as of writing, YTD gains is 27%). The more volatile USCF Daily Target 2X Copper Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPXR#NYSE">CPXR</a>), which started in January and seeks to replicate twice the daily return of copper futures, reached another all-time high — 45% since it started. It has since retreated slightly and currently stands at 37.64% gains since inception.
Investors have been rushing into copper ETFs during the price spike. CPER experienced $18.5 million in net inflows from March 13 to March 25, according to etf.com, indicating sustained interest in the metal. Copper miner ETFs have also reaped benefits from the spurt. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>), which owns leading mining stocks, has risen 7.6% year-to-date, helped by improving copper prices and investor appetite for mining stocks.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">The Driving Force Behind The Fever</h1>
The copper tariff hype received traction following a report indicating President Donald Trump may impose a whopping 25% duties on import of all copper into the U.S. The gesture, allegedly sought to protect native production of minerals of paramount significance, forms a part of larger efforts toward diversifying American supply chains. Nevertheless, with the lengthy lead times necessitated to increase domestic mining capability, the short-term impact has been increased prices as vendors scramble to deliver copper into the U.S. prior to the imposition of tariffs, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/trump-may-implement-copper-import-tariffs-within-weeks?sref=TBDibEcD">reported </a>Bloomberg.
New York COMEX copper futures rose as high as 3.1% on Wednesday to a record high of $5.374 per pound before backtracking. The disparity between U.S. and world prices was stark — benchmark London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices temporarily dipped 2.2% to $9,893 a metric ton, widening the difference between the two markets to over $1,750 a ton. This arbitrage chance initiated a worldwide sprint to reroute cargoes to the U.S., leaving major consumer China short, per Bloomberg.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44523208/new-polen-capital-etfs-target-floating-rate-loans-high-yield-bonds">Polen Capital Introduces ETFs Target Floating-Rate Loans, High-Yield Bonds</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Trade Wars, Global Supply Constraints</h1>
Copper is the newest front in the Trump administration&#8217;s relentless trade wars. The prospective tariffs follow previous tariffs on steel, aluminum and other goods, which have had a supply chain-whipping effect around the world and increased U.S. manufacturers&#8217; input costs. The threat of fresh trade barriers has again instigated fears of inflation, as increased raw material prices could percolate down through to consumers and businesses.
Supply limitations also still keep the market tight, <a href="https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/stocks/XCG-T/pressreleases/31551635/rising-copper-prices-boost-commodity-etf-amid-tariff-fears-and-china-stimulus/">noted </a>The Globe And Mail. Declining investments in new mining operations and refining capacity have kept the sector fighting to meet demand. Even if new copper production in the U.S. increases, it will be several years before it can significantly contribute to supply, so prices can remain high for the foreseeable future.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Next for Copper and ETFs?</h1>
With tariffs on the horizon, weeks away at worst, copper&#8217;s run could yet have some life left in it. Confirmation of duties could boost U.S. copper prices to even higher levels, increasing the arbitrage differential with the global markets. Players will be interested to see how supply chains recalibrate and whether China&#8217;s stimulus measures continue to underpin demand.
For ETF investors, the rally highlights the metal&#8217;s pivotal role in electrification, AI infrastructure and renewable energy transitions. Whether through direct copper ETFs such as CPER or mining-related funds such as COPX, the metal&#8217;s rebound offers both opportunities and threats as geopolitical and macroeconomic trends influence its path.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/03/44521217/new-rsmr-etf-balances-risk-and-reward-for-investors">New RSMR ETF Balances Risk And Reward For Investors</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Jose Luis Stephens via Shutterstock

Movers

CPXR

Red-Hot Copper: ETFs Soar On Tariff Speculation, Supply Squeeze

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/2025-03-26_08h19_57.jpg" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Doctor Copper</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-copper-futures-cper-mc-03262025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of copper ETF United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>Copper is known as Doctor Copper because historically copper has been a good indicator of the global economy.&nbsp; However, this time it is different because the move in copper is due to President Trump's policies.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you a long term perspective.</li>
<li>The chart shows that copper is hitting a new high.</li>
<li>The up move over the last month is due to the threat of US tariffs.</li>
<li>President Trump instructed the Commerce Department to look into copper tariffs on February 25th and produce a report within 270 days.&nbsp; It appears now that the Commerce Department is ready with the report.</li>
<li>In our analysis, copper tariffs may come within weeks, much earlier than expected.</li>
<li>Copper futures on Comex hit a record of $5.37 per pound.</li>
<li>Copper is important because the demand has been rising due to its use in AI data centers, electric vehicles, and more power production.</li>
<li>In anticipation of tariffs, copper traders are importing huge amounts of copper into the United States.</li>
<li>The largest publicly traded copper producer by market cap is Freeport-McMoRan Inc (FCX).  As full disclosure, FCX is in our ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. There is another copper position in First Quantum Minerals Ltd (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FQVLF#OTC">FQVLF</a>).  FQVLF is also a buyout target.  Earlier this morning, we gave a new signal on copper producer Taseko Mines Ltd (TGB) due to its Florence Copper Project in Arizona; as of December 2024, the project was 56% complete.  Being in the United States, Florence Copper Project will benefit from tariffs.  The signal was given in our ZYX Buy. </li>
<li>Another big use of copper is in housing.&nbsp; If there is a recession, copper demand from housing will fall.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should take a global perspective.&nbsp; China is the biggest consumer of copper.</li>
<li>Consumer confidence fell to a four year low.&nbsp; Consumer confidence came in at 92.9 vs 93.5 consensus.&nbsp; As a reference, consumer confidence was 100.1 in February.&nbsp; A number below 80 is an indication of a recession.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Durable orders data is strong.
<ul>
<li>Durable orders came in at 0.9% vs -1.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable orders &#8211; ex transport came at 0.7% vs 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Market mechanics continue to be in control of the stock market.  Please click <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44476483/market-mechanics-driving-stocks-tariffs-whipsaw-ai-data-center-bubble-warning">here </a>to see the prior Morning Capsule for details.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. </li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), and Microsoft Corp (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta Platforms Inc (META), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Oil</h4>
Oil inventory data from API came at a draw of 4.6M barrels vs a consensus of a draw of 2.5M barrels.&nbsp; This data is bullish in the short term and bringing in buying.&nbsp; However, prudent investors should note that there is a counter balance — the US and Russia have reached a deal on a ceasefire in the Black Sea.&nbsp; The US is also likely to work to reduce or eliminate sanctions on Russian oil.
As full disclosure, there are signals in oil in inverse oil ETF ProShares UltraShort Bloomberg Crude Oil (SCO) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy and oil ETF United States Oil Fund LP (USO) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Short.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin is range bound.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors. 
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Signals

FQVLF

Copper Hits A New High, Consumer Confidence At Four-Year Low, Market Mechanics Control Stock Market

Copper prices have surged above $10,000 per metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) for the first time since October. On LME, copper has gained 14% year-to-date, while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. copper futures</a> surged 26%.
The price differential widened to $1,200 per metric ton, creating arbitrage opportunities. Since copper futures result in physical delivery on maturity, buyers have scrambled to move supplies into the U.S.
Between 100,000 and 150,000 metric tons of copper will arrive in the U.S. in the coming weeks, potentially surpassing the monthly import record of 136,951 tons set in January 2022.
Leading commodity traders, including Trafigura, Glencore, and Gunvor, have aggressively rerouted shipments, with additional warehouse space being secured in New Orleans and Baltimore to handle the influx.
Still, the 12% differential between the domestic and foreign copper prices is around half of anticipated copper tariffs.
On February 25, President Donald Trump signed an executive action directing the U.S. Commerce Department to investigate copper imports on national security grounds. Leading institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup, responded, predicting a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/03/44271394/goldman-sachs-sees-copper-imports-increasing-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit" rel="noreferrer noopener">25% tariff</a> on imported copper by year-end.
"Copper's rise is being driven solely by supply concerns surrounding the potential for universal tariffs to be placed on all imports of copper into the US," Natalie Scott-Gray, a senior metals demand analyst at StoneX, <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/neilksethi/status/1902053890079535258" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a>, warning about the high reliance on foreign copper.
According to ING, in 2024, the U.S. imported <a target="_blank" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/industrial-metals-monthly-us-copper-tariff-risks-pull-more-metal-to-the-us/" rel="noreferrer noopener">850,000 tons</a> of refined copper, excluding scrap. Chile was the largest supplier, accounting for 41% of imports, while 27% came from Canada.
Despite efforts to increase local production, output has steadily declined, falling 3% in 2024 after an 11% drop in 2023. Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), the largest U.S. producer, has faced declining ore grades, environmental regulations, and permitting challenges, limiting the ability to ramp up domestic supply.
The firm's CEO, Kathleen Quirk, has called for Trump's administration to classify copper as a critical mineral, anticipating a $500 million windfall from tax credits tied to the Inflation Reduction Act. Quirk sees Freeport's domestic production growing by 8%, targeting an output of 225,000 metric tons, none of which will be exported.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44375055/trump-turns-to-beautiful-clean-coal-to-address-domestic-energy-demand" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Turns To ‘Beautiful, Clean Coal' To Address Domestic Energy Demand</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

MTAL

Copper Surges As Arbitrage Opportunity Drives US Imports

Editor&#8217;s Note: The headline has been updated for clarity.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a surge in U.S. copper imports soon, driven by expectations of tariffs from President Donald Trump's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">administration</a>.
Per Reuters' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-anticipates-surge-us-copper-net-imports-2025-03-11/" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a>, the investment bank expects a 25% duty on copper imports by year's end, incentivizing stockpiling to frontrun the legislative. As a result, U.S. net copper imports could surge by 50-100%, adding between 200,000 to 300,000 metric tons to domestic inventories by Q3.
If this projection materializes, U.S. copper stockpiles could swell from 95,000 tons to as much as 400,000 tons or around half of global reported inventories – leaving the international market at historically low inventory levels.
For 2025, Goldman sees a 180,000-ton global copper deficit as growing demand for electrification, economic stimulus measures in China, and slow mine growth materialize. The bank sees the supply imbalance more pronounced in the second half of the year as a catalyst for higher prices.
"We maintain our forecast that the LME three-month price will average $10,200 per ton in Q3 2024 and see the impact of inventory dislocation predominantly in timespreads," the bank noted. Current three-month copper contracts on the London Metal Exchange were trading at $9,528.50 per ton as of Wednesday morning.
The largest U.S. copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), could benefit from this scenario, particularly if copper is classified as a critical mineral.
In a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ceraweek-freeport-sees-500-million-annual-boost-if-trump-declares-copper-2025-03-10/" rel="noreferrer noopener">interview</a>, CEO Kathleen Quirk expressed optimism that the Trump administration could make this move soon, unlocking the federal tax incentives to support domestic production.
"Having the incentives and clarity around those would be a big plus for the domestic copper industry," Quirk said. Such a designation would enable Freeport to claim more than $500 million annually in tax credits tied to the Inflation Reduction Act.
Freeport-McMoRan operates seven copper mines across the U.S. and one of two domestic copper smelters. The firm doesn't export any domestically produced copper, making it a key supplier in any scenario restricting imports.
However, production costs in the U.S. are higher than in Freeport's international operations due to lower ore grades, making policy support a crucial factor.
Per the <a target="_blank" href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20250122679192/en/2360933/1/FCX_250123_4Q_2024_Earnings_Release.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">latest guidance</a>, the company expects its U.S. copper production to increase by 8% in 2025, with further growth in subsequent years. Opportunities include doubling the concentrator capacity at its Bagdad operation in Arizona, which could add 200-250 million pounds of copper annually.
Quirk also hinted at a possible <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44216408/dr-congo-explores-a-minerals-for-security-deal-with-the-us" rel="noreferrer noopener">return to the Democratic Republic of Congo</a>, where Freeport previously owned the Kisanfu copper-cobalt project before selling it to China Molybdenum in 2020. "We would be interested in going back for the right opportunity," she said, adding that Freeport would seek to be the operator of any project if it re-enters the DRC.
Price Watch: Freeport-McMoRan has declined 5.28% year-to-date. The stock is up 1.56% to $36.44 premarket at the last check on Wednesday.
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Goldman Sachs Sees Copper Imports Increasing Ahead Of Tariffs As FCX Positions To Benefit (UPDATED)

China's metal markets are waking up post-Lunar New Year, and JPMorgan analyst Dominic O'Kane is tracking <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">some eye-catching trends</a>.
Copper and iron ore prices are at four-month highs, steel output is the strongest since 2021, and base metal inventories are running at record-low seasonal levels. 
The takeaway? A tight physical market could be setting the stage for a bullish move—if China's demand kicks in.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43603930/tech-stocks-surge-steelmakers-jump-on-trumps-25-tariffs-copper-hits-9-month-highs-whats-driving-markets-monday">Tech Stocks Surge, Steelmakers Jump On Trump&#8217;s 25% Tariffs, Copper Hits 9-Month Highs: What&#8217;s Driving Markets</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Copper's Mixed Signals</h2>
Copper prices have climbed 5% in the last two weeks to around $9,500 per ton, but China's domestic demand isn't quite keeping pace. JPMorgan points out that physical copper demand is lagging seasonal norms, reflected in a 20% drop in China's copper premia. 
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/02/43432736/copper-stocks-on-shaky-ground-jpmorgan-analysts-say-tariffs-deepseek-cloud-outlook">Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook</a>
Still, O'Kane notes that global macro forces—like a strengthening yuan and anticipation of U.S. metal tariffs—are helping keep LME copper elevated. With inventories at five-year lows, JPMorgan sees copper climbing to $10,400 per ton by the fourth quarter of 2025.
For investors looking to capitalize, United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) and Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) offer exposure to copper's momentum.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Iron Ore Rallies Amid Supply Disruptions</h2>
Iron ore prices have surged 10% since January to $105 per ton, fueled by cyclone-related supply hits in Western Australia. While steel rebar demand in China took a weather-related dip, steel production is running at the fastest pace since 2021. JPMorgan is watching China's annual National People's Congress (March 5) for potential policy support that could further boost steel and iron ore markets.
Investors eyeing the iron ore trade might look at VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>) for broad exposure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Aluminium &amp; Zinc: Low Inventories, Limited Demand</h2>
Aluminium and zinc inventories are at multi-year lows, signaling tight supply. However, demand remains sluggish post-New Year, with aluminium inventories rising by 110kt last week. JPMorgan projects aluminium prices at $2,763 per ton for 2025, but stronger demand signals are needed for a sustained rally.
For those bullish on aluminium, iPath Series B Bloomberg Aluminum Subindex Total Return ETN (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JJU#NYSE">JJU</a>) offers direct exposure.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Investors Await Next Big Move</h2>
China's metal markets are in flux—tight supplies and record-low inventories are colliding with sluggish post-holiday demand. 
JPMorgan's O'Kane sees China's upcoming policy moves as a key catalyst for the next leg in metal prices. 
With copper and iron ore already running hot, investors should keep an eye on ETFs like COPX, SLX, and PICK to position for the next big move.
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China's Metal Markets Are Stirring - Here's What It Means for Commodity Investors

The energy transition is reshaping the global mining industry, with demand for critical minerals expected to surge over the coming decades. A shift toward renewable energy and electrification drives demand for commodities like copper, nickel, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/23/07/33233340/rare-earth-elements-explained" rel="noreferrer noopener">rare earth elements</a>.
According to BDO's Annual Mining Report, the demand for key energy transition minerals will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/industries/natural-resources-and-energy/annual-mining-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">nearly triple by 2030</a> and quadruple by 2040.
Copper remains a cornerstone of the transition, as it is the only critical mineral vital for all clean energy technologies, such as solar, wind, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, and power grids.
While copper prices hit a record high in mid-2024, they later softened due to weak demand from China's property market. In 2025, forecasts suggest continued price constraints due to high inventories despite the long-term positive outlook.
Merger and acquisition activity has surged – with mining giant BHP <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/05/39068033/time-runs-out-for-bhp-deal-49-billion-acquisition-of-anglo-american-proves-too-complex-to-solve" rel="noreferrer noopener">unsuccessfully bidding</a> for Anglo American and launching a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/40031488/bhp-to-unlock-south-american-copper-riches-partners-with-lundin-for-filo-acquisition" rel="noreferrer noopener">joint venture</a> with Lundin. Meanwhile, sector leader Freeport-McMoRan is opting for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/09/41098074/freeport-mcmoran-sticks-with-organic-growth-takes-advantage-of-geodiversity" rel="noreferrer noopener">capex-driven internal expansion</a>.
Nickel, a metal essential for battery technologies, has faced a turbulent period. In 2024, an oversupply from Indonesia and China led to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/07/39749321/bhp-halts-nickel-mine-were-not-able-to-overcome-economic-challenges-driven-by-oversupply" rel="noreferrer noopener">mine closures</a>, including those operated by Glencore and BHP. However, a rebound is expected in 2025 as supply surpluses narrow and demand for EV batteries remains strong.
Despite the forecasted price stabilization, industry players remain cautious, with some automakers shifting towards alternative battery chemistries that reduce dependence on nickel.
Zinc, another key transition metal used in wind and solar infrastructure, experienced a sluggish first half of 2024 due to subdued industrial activity but rebounded later in the year thanks to Chinese stimulus measures.
In 2025, BDO expects the demand to strengthen as renewable energy projects ramp up. Still, supply constraints and logistical challenges may continue to drive price fluctuations.
The rare earth element market is also in focus as countries look to diversify their supply chains since the U.S., China, and Myanmar account for 92% of global production.
President Donald Trump's recent remark shows the importance of this group of metals, which is vital for producing magnets.
"We're looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they're going to secure what we're giving them with their rare earths and other things," he said,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-says-he-wants-ukraine-supply-us-with-rare-earths-2025-02-03/" rel="noreferrer noopener"> per</a> Reuters.
Looking forward, despite opportunities created by the energy transition, BDO notes a pressing demographic challenge.
Per McKinsey's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/has-mining-lost-its-luster-why-talent-is-moving-elsewhere-and-how-to-bring-them-back" rel="noreferrer noopener">survey</a> of Canadian mining companies, 70% of people between 15 and 30 years old would not consider working in mining. Meanwhile, between 2016 and 2022, the number of mining engineering graduates in the U.S. fell by 41%.
While the industry tries to reverse the trend by integrating advanced technologies and enhancing sustainability efforts to create a more attractive work environment – closing the skills gap remains a key. To drive the next phase of mining evolution, the future workforce will need expertise in automation, AI, and environmental management.
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Critical Metal Demand To Triple By 2030, But Demographics Pose Risks

Chile has rejected the proposed $2.5 billion Dominga iron and copper mining project. Andes Iron, a domestic <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/mining" rel="noreferrer noopener">exploration and mining company</a>, aimed to establish two open-pit mines and a seaport near the Humboldt Penguin National Reserve.
However, the regulators rejected the project again, citing environmental concerns for an area home to a unique mix of species, including Humboldt penguins, dolphins, and endangered parrots.
The mines were expected to extract 12 million tons of iron and 150,000 tons of copper annually for 22 years, generating 1,400 jobs in a country that is the world's top copper producer.
In 2017, socialist President Michelle Bachelet's administration first rejected the project, leading to the resignation of two top ministers. In 2019, the Chilean Supreme Court ordered a reevaluation, and under the current government of President Gabriel Boric, the project was rejected again in January 2023.
This latest decision by Chile's Committee of Ministers follows an environmental court's mandate to revisit that ruling.
The project's potential impact on biodiversity influenced their decision. The committee noted a lack of a credible mitigation plan, particularly for the burrowing parrot, whose habitat and food sources were inadequately assessed.
"It was not possible to determine or evaluate the real impact on these species," the committee stated.
As <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chile-rejects-environmental-permit-dominga-copper-iron-mine-2025-01-08/" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> the Reuters report, Andes Iron criticized the ruling, accusing the government of bias since the nearby Cruz Grande port received environmental approval.
"The action of the Committee of Ministers sets an unfortunate precedent never seen before in the history of Chile in terms of environmental permits," the company said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.dominga.cl/andes-iron-llama-al-comite-de-ministros-a-respetar-fallo-de-justicia-ambiental/" rel="noreferrer noopener">statement</a>.
Despite continuously rejecting this prospective project, Chile remains committed to growing its copper output. State-owned miner Codelco recently showed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/01/42840568/chiles-codelco-targets-turnaround-with-modest-copper-output-increase-and-strategic-lithium-ventures" rel="noreferrer noopener">signs of a production turnaround</a> and is raising $1.5 billion in bonds to fund its capital expenditure plans.
After spending between $4 and $5 billion last year, these expenditures could reach nearly $6 billion in 2025, aiming to push the copper output toward the goal of 1.7 million tons per year by the decade's end. The financing deal, sourced by Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., and Banco Santander, is expected to close by January 13.
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Chile Rejects Dominga Project Once Again, Taps Debt Market To Help Its Copper Growth

KoBold Metals, the AI-driven mining startup backed by Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos, has secured $537 million in its Series C funding round. The latest funding round gives the Berkeley-based company a valuation of $2.96 billion and fresh capital to pursue ambitious goals in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" rel="noreferrer noopener">critical minerals sector</a>.
Durable Capital Partners LP and T. Rowe Price funds led the round, alongside contributions from existing investors such as Andreessen Horowitz Growth, Breakthrough Energy Ventures, and Mitsubishi Corporation, as well as new players like StepStone Group and WCM Investment Management.
This latest injection brings KoBold's total fundraising to $1 billion. The funds will accelerate exploration, develop high-potential projects, and enhance its R&amp;D capabilities.
KoBold's innovative approach relies on artificial intelligence to locate deposits of vital minerals such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and nickel. The company's proprietary technology aggregates data from sources like satellite imagery and historical drilling reports to create a detailed "Google Maps" of the Earth's crust, pinpointing untapped resources that traditional methods might miss.
Using this technology, KoBold discovered a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/02/36940360/kobold-metals-announces-historic-copper-discovery-in-zambia" rel="noreferrer noopener">substantial copper deposit</a> in Zambia's Copperbelt. The Dumbwa target, part of the Solwezi project, exhibited promising results, including drilling highlights of 16 meters at 1.24% copper. KoBold's $2 billion Mingomba site is set to produce at least 300,000 tons annually by 2030, making it Zambia's largest copper operation.
"About 40% of the new capital will go toward advancing existing projects into production, with Zambia receiving the lion's share," KoBold's CEO and co-founder Kurt House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.koboldmetals.com/news/mining-startup-kobold-metals-valued-at-2-96-bn-after-closing-537m-series-c/?aid=01" rel="noreferrer noopener">said</a> to the Financial Times.
With 60 active projects across continents, including partnerships with mining giants like BHP and Rio Tinto, the firm is ready to reshuffle the industry. House noted they plan to aggressively expand the team, particularly seeking data scientists, while expanding into new jurisdictions such as Finland and Botswana. The company also aims to go public within three to five years.
Despite changes in U.S. political leadership, House expressed confidence in bipartisan support for critical mineral initiatives. "There is very broad bipartisan support for diversifying [the] supply of critical minerals because this is a national security priority," he said.
U.S. foreign policy is aiding companies like KoBold. President Joe Biden's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/24/10/41416913/bidens-farewell-to-africa-strategic-motives-behind-first-and-only-presidential-visit" rel="noreferrer noopener">last official trip</a> to Angola discussed revitalizing the Lobito railway line to facilitate mineral transport across Angola, Zambia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Thus, firms like KoBold would benefit from better infrastructure while bolstering Western access to strategic resources and reducing reliance on China-dominated supply chains.
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Bill Gates And Jeff Bezos Backed Mining Startup Raises $537 Million, Targets Going Public In Few Years

As the world hurtles toward an electrified future, the copper market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/copper">stands at a crossroads</a>. 
Insights from JPMorgan analysts Patrick Jones, Greg Shearer and Bill Peterson paint a complex picture: short-term hurdles for copper prices, but a glittering long-term outlook driven by electric vehicles and evolving supply dynamics.
This could seem as good news for those invested in United States Copper Index Fund ETV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>), Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>), iShares Copper and Metals Mining ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ICOP#NASDAQ">ICOP</a>) for the long-term.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">EV Boom: Supercharging Copper Demand</h2>
The electric vehicle revolution is set to electrify copper demand. JPMorgan predicts copper usage in EVs will more than double from 1.4 million metric tons in 2023 to 3 million by 2030. While some worry that technological advances like thinner copper anode foils could dampen demand, the analysts argue otherwise. 
Larger EV sizes and a pivot toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) batteries — which are more copper-intensive — are expected to drive long-term growth.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/10/41337566/trump-2-0-trade-policies-could-hit-copper-stocks-harder-warns-jpmorgan-analyst">Trump 2.0 Trade Policies Could Hit Copper Stocks Harder, Warns JPMorgan Analyst</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">New Technologies: Leaching A Lifeline?</h2>
Leaching technologies are generating buzz, but can they revolutionize copper supply? Not yet, say the analysts. While projects from major miners like Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) and BHP Group Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BHP#NYSE">BHP</a>) are on the horizon, these advancements are unlikely to offset supply declines before 2030.
At best, leaching could add 550,000 metric tons annually, just 2% of global supply.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Scrap &amp; Recycling: The Unsung Hero?</h2>
Recycling is a crucial cog in the copper machine, accounting for about 17% of refined supply in 2024, up from 14% in 2020. JPMorgan forecasts scrap supply will grow by 5-6% annually, faster than historical rates, yet insufficient to bridge the long-term deficit. Recycling alone won't solve copper's supply crunch.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Near-Term Risks, Long-Term Rewards</h2>
JPMorgan warns of near-term risks from macroeconomic pressures, particularly a potential devaluation of the Chinese yuan to 7.8 to 8.0 per U.S. dollar. This could lead to a 12-15% dip in copper prices, presenting headwinds for equities. However, the analysts remain bullish on the long-term trajectory, underpinned by a looming supply-demand gap.
Their picks? 
Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK: LUNMF) leads in EMEA, while Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>) tops the Americas. Asia-Pacific favorites include Zijin Mining and Merdeka Copper, with caution advised on Jiangxi Copper and Sandfire Resources.
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Copper's High-Wire Act: Can EVs, New Tech Power The Metal's Next Big Surge?

The re-election of Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities">has metals markets</a> looking a little like a shaken-up snow globe—chaotic and swirling. 
While some metals might be facing a rocky road, JPMorgan's Commodities Research team, led by Greg Shearer, sees gold as holding strong through the turbulence, calling recent gold action a "stumble not a sea change."
Here's the JPMorgan breakdown on what to watch in metals as this political shift unfolds.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">"Timing and Sequencing Will Be Critical" For Base Metals</h2>
As tariff tensions escalate, Peterson and his team emphasize that "policy timing and sequencing will be critical." They anticipate that China's response will likely be "a more reactive mechanism" once tariffs are in place, rather than a proactive approach. In practical terms, this suggests that the market may start to factor in "risk premia" in the weeks ahead.
Traders should buckle up as base metals brace for near-term turbulence, holding off for now on any major plays.
Investors in base metal ETFs such as the United States Copper Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) and the Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBB#NYSE">DBB</a>) should remain wary of their holdings.
The analysts say one metal could break the trend, though: aluminum. With supply issues dogging the bauxite market, aluminum has an "idiosyncratic fundamental support" that could "significantly mitigate bearishness from a weaker CNY." So, while aluminum may stay relatively resilient, other base metals might be taking a temporary backseat.
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<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold: The "Debasement Trade" Keeps The Glitter</h2>
Gold experienced a dip following the election, but JPMorgan sees this as a temporary setback rather than a major shift. With potential U.S. fiscal challenges and rising inflation concerns, Peterson anticipates gold will perform strongly in the coming years, projecting it could reach $2,850 per ounce by late 2025.
This "debasement trade" may make gold the go-to hedge as the new administration's policies take shape, especially as inflationary pressures bubble up.
This may bode well for investors in the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) and the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>).
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Yuan Factor: Copper's Achilles' Heel?</h2>
Another key factor here is the yuan (CNY). If Trump's policies lead to further yuan depreciation—potentially up to 7.40 or even 7.8, according to JPMorgan's FX strategists—copper prices could see a roughly 5% hit, dragging prices down to around $9,000 per metric ton.
Aluminum, again, may be shielded somewhat by those supply issues, but other base metals could be feeling the squeeze.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Glimmers While Base Metals Hold Their Breath</h2>
For the metals market, Trump's second term brings headwinds and a few golden highlights. 
While base metals might see some strategic waiting time, aluminum could be one of the few to withstand the early hits. 
Gold, meanwhile, has the long game in sight, with JPMorgan's "debasement trade" fueling bullish forecasts.
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Trump Re-Election Jolts Metals Market As Gold Sees A 'Stumble, Not A Sea Change'

Copper stocks, like Freeport-McMoRan Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) and Teck Resources Ltd (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TECK#NYSE">TECK</a>), may face another turbulent period if Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">returns to office.</a>
JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson warns that Trump 2.0&#8217;s trade policies could deal an even more significant blow than his first term.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trump 1.0 Vs. Trump 2.0: Higher Stakes, Bigger Tariffs</h2>
During Trump&#8217;s presidency, the 2018 trade war slapped a 25% tariff on Chinese imports, leading to a sharp downturn in metal prices and causing global mining stocks to fall by over 10%.
Copper, a key indicator of global economic health, was hit hard as fears of slowing demand and higher costs rippled through the markets. The United States Copper Index Fund ETV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CPER#NYSE">CPER</a>) serves as a performance barometer for copper as a commodity. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) tracks the equity of copper miners, with its top holdings including KGHM Polska Miedz SA (OTCPK:KGHPF), First Quantum Minerals Ltd (OTCPK:FQVLF), Teck Resources and Freeport-McMoRan.
Peterson said that if Trump returns to the White House, his proposed Trump 2.0 policies could increase tariffs on Chinese imports to 60%, a significant escalation that would amplify trade tensions.
He suggests that while China&#8217;s share of U.S. imports has dropped from over 21% in 2018 to under 14% in 2023, the sheer size of the tariff increase could lead to even more significant disruptions in global copper demand, potentially increasing the impact by 40%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/10/41176539/vale-plans-to-expand-copper-output-invests-184m-for-domestic-critical-minerals">Vale Plans To Expand Copper Output, Invests $184M For Domestic Critical Minerals</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Great Copper Rollercoaster: Boom, Bust, Repeat?</h2>
Comparing the two periods, Trump's 2016 election win initially buoyed copper stocks, with investors optimistic about deregulation and infrastructure spending. 
However, the optimism quickly faded as the trade war unfolded in 2018, causing copper prices and related stocks to plunge. A similar pattern could unfold under Trump 2.0: a post-election boost followed by another painful downturn if tariffs escalate, according to the analyst.
Adding further uncertainty, Peterson points to upcoming Federal Reserve rate cuts.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">History&#8217;s Lesson: Copper Tariffs Are Trouble</h2>
Historically, industrial metals like copper have underperformed following rate-cutting cycles, with the Bloomberg Industrial Metals Index typically falling 6% on average within nine months of cuts. 
Despite being long-term bullish on copper due to structural demand, Peterson advises caution in the near term, as macro risks remain significant.
The lesson from Trump 1.0 is clear: tariffs led to a steep decline in copper equities, and Trump 2.0's aggressive stance could trigger a similar or even worse outcome for the sector.
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/10/41295764/copper-rebounds-as-chinas-stimulus-boosts-market-sentiment-but-us-elections-loom-large">Copper Rebounds As China&#8217;s Stimulus Boosts Market Sentiment, But US Elections Loom Large</a></li>
</ul>
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