iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA: EWW)

Ultime notizie per iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (ARCA:EWW)

iShares Inc iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

iShares MSCI Mexico Capped Investable Market Index Fund

Consumer Defensive

Financial Services

Basic Materials

Industrials

Communication Services

Real Estate

Consumer Cyclical

Healthcare

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Mexico IMI 25/50 Index (the Underlying Index), which is a free float-adjusted market capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the performance of the large-, mid- and small-capitalization segments of the equity market in Mexico. The Underlying Index is rebalanced quarterly using an optimization process that aims to minimize the constituent weight differences between the Underlying Index and the MSCI Mexico Index (the Parent Index). The Underlying Index uses a capping methodology that limits the weight of any single group entity (constituents that MSCI determines have a control relationship) to a maximum of 25 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight, and the sum of all group entities with a weight above 5% to an aggregate of 50 Pecent of the Underlying Index weight. A group entity is a group of companies that operate as an affiliated corporate group but may separately issue listed securities.

Grupo Financiero Banorte Sab De Cv

iShares MSCI Mexico ETF

Mexican equities staged a historic rally on Thursday, defying a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/04/44618811/trump-tariffs-trigger-sell-off-on-holding-ast-spacemobile-lululemon-shopify-robinhood-tank">global market sell-off</a>. 
When President Donald Trump announced steep trade tariffs <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">targeting key U.S. partners</a>, he spared Mexico and Canada.
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)—a trade agreement that went into effect on July 1, 2020—shields U.S. neighbors from the immediate fallout.
The decision surprised market participants, who had expected a heavy tariff on the Central American economy. After all, Mexico runs a large trade surplus in goods with the U.S.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44635144/fridays-jobs-report-could-be-make-or-break-moment-after-trumps-tariff-shock">Friday&#8217;s Jobs Report Could Be Make-Or-Break Moment After Trump&#8217;s Tariff Shock</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Mexican Equity ETF Outperforms S&amp;P 500 By Widest Margin Since September 1998</h3>
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) — a popular vehicle for U.S. investors seeking exposure to Mexican equities — surged 4.5% on the day. This marks its strongest one-day gain since June 2024.
Its performance was aided by the Mexican peso, which rose 1.4% against the dollar. 
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) plummeted 4.8%. That&#8217;s the worst daily performance since June 2020. 
This sets up an extraordinary 9.2 percentage point outperformance by Mexican stocks over their U.S. counterparts — a historically rare divergence.
According to historical market data, a performance gap of this magnitude between the two ETFs hasn't been seen since Sept. 15, 1998, when the Bank of Mexico intervened to defend the peso during a capital exodus from emerging markets triggered by Russia's default crisis.
Top daily performers included Operadora de Sites Mexicanos, S.A.B. de C.V. (OTCPK: OPMXF), which surged 5.5%, Bolsa Mexicana de Valores, S.A.B. de C.V. (OTCPK: BOMXF), up 4.7%, and Grupo Carso, S.A.B. de C.V. (OTCPK: GPOVF), which gained 3.9%.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Which Tariffs Are Applied To Mexico? </h3>
According to Goldman Sachs economist Alberto Ramos, the April 2 tariff order does not alter existing restrictions placed under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act) related to fentanyl and migration issues.
"USMCA-compliant goods will continue to see 0% tariff; non-USMCA compliant goods will face a 25% tariff, while non-compliant energy and potash exports are subject to a 10% levy," Ramos wrote in a note. 
Should the IEEPA orders be lifted, non-compliant goods would face a 12% "reciprocal" tariff, while USMCA-compliant exports would retain preferential access.
Mexico&#8217;s exports to the U.S. account for over 27% of GDP, underscoring the country's elevated sensitivity to U.S. trade policy. 
Ramos estimates that, under current rules, average U.S. tariffs on Mexican imports amount to roughly 8%, assuming most trade shifts to USMCA-compliant channels. 
Should more trade migrate to USMCA-compliant categories and if reciprocal tariffs replace IEEPA orders, the average effective tariff rate could fall slightly above 6%, improving Mexico's competitive positioning.
Despite the relief rally in Mexican assets, the economist cautions that Mexico remains indirectly exposed to global fallout. 
The broader package of reciprocal tariffs could dampen global growth and weigh on U.S. industrial demand, which would eventually affect Mexican exporters. 
&#8220;All in, in relative terms Mexico's external competitiveness was not hurt by today's announcements versus the current tariff baseline, but indirectly Mexico and LatAm could suffer from the potential impact on US and global growth of the broad reciprocal tariffs and any eventual retaliatory measures,&#8221; he said. 
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44635144/fridays-jobs-report-could-be-make-or-break-moment-after-trumps-tariff-shock">Friday&#8217;s Jobs Report Could Be Make-Or-Break Moment After Trump&#8217;s Tariff Shock</a></li>
</ul>
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Mexican Stocks Notch Widest 1-Day Rally Versus S&P 500 Since 1998 As Trump Spares Mexico From Tariffs

President Donald Trump's sweeping new trade tariffs sent shockwaves through global markets on Thursday, triggering a massive sell-off that echoed the COVID-19 pandemic-era routs, as investor risk <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">appetite vanished in a flash.</a>
Wall Street saw a staggering $2 trillion in market cap erased, with the U.S.&#8217;s biggest 10 companies shedding $1 trillion alone.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) plunged 8.7%, staring down its worst day since March 2020 and wiping out nearly $300 billion in value. NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) tumbled 6.4%, losing $171.9 billion, while Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) dropped 8%, on pace for a $166 billion hit.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>% Daily Change</th>
<th>Market Cap Loss ($B)</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Apple</td>
<td>-8.74%</td>
<td>-293.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NVIDIA</td>
<td>-6.38%</td>
<td>-171.89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Amazon</td>
<td>-8.03%</td>
<td>-166.80</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>)</td>
<td>-6.64%</td>
<td>-98.24</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>)</td>
<td>-3.26%</td>
<td>-62.74</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>)</td>
<td>-7.63%</td>
<td>-61.74</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)</td>
<td>-2.04%</td>
<td>-57.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>)</td>
<td>-5.80%</td>
<td>-52.76</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>)</td>
<td>-6.69%</td>
<td>-45.99</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)</td>
<td>-9.93%</td>
<td>-31.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
<tfoot>
<tr>
<td>Total</td>
<td></td>
<td>-1043.67</td>
</tr>
</tfoot>
</table>
</figure>
The S&amp;P 500 fell nearly 4%, poised for its worst session since September 2022, and sank to a seven-month low. Small caps took the brunt of the sell-off, with the Russell 2000 plunging over 5% and officially entering a bear market, now down more than 20% from its 2024 peak.
Fears of retaliatory action from key U.S. trading partners dragged every major sector into the red, except for defensive plays like consumer staples and utilities.
Consumer discretionary stocks were slammed. Apparel names posted double-digit losses: Ralph Lauren Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RL#NYSE">RL</a>), Nike Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NKE#NYSE">NKE</a>), Lululemon Athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LULU#NASDAQ">LULU</a>) and Garmin Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GRMN#NYSE">GRMN</a>) each dropped between 10% and 16%.
Cruise lines were also hit hard: Norwegian Cruise Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) sank 13%, Carnival Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CCL#NYSE">CCL</a>) fell 10%, and Royal Caribbean Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RCL#NYSE">RCL</a>) slid 9%.
Bond markets saw a mild flight to safety. Treasury yields edged lower, yet the U.S. dollar weakened 1.6%, with the DXY index heading for its worst day since November 2022.
Commodities weren't spared. Oil prices nosedived on fears of a global slowdown, worsened by OPEC+'s surprise move to raise output. West Texas Intermediate crude plunged 7.5%, slipping below $70 per barrel.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) showed relative resilience in the carnage, dipping just 1% and holding above $81,600.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance in Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>40,908.76</td>
<td>-3.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,449.64</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>18,751.99</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>1,929.91</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:00 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 3.6% to $544.20.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) tumbled 3% to $409.26.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;plummeted 4.2% to $456.21.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) nosedived 5.4% to 191.63.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Consumer Staples&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) outperformed, up 1.2%; the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) tanked, down 5.6%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Other Major Stock, ETFs Moves To Know</h1>
<ul>
<li>Lamb Weston Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LW#NYSE">LW</a>) up 7.8%</li>
<li>Five Below Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FIVE#NASDAQ">FIVE</a>) down 26%,</li>
<li>Molina Healthcare Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MOH#NYSE">MOH</a>), up 7.8%</li>
<li>Kohls Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KSS#NYSE">KSS</a>) down 25%</li>
<li>VanEck Vietnam ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VNM#NYSE">VNM</a>) down 10.2%</li>
<li>iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) up 4.7%, </li>
<li>iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWT#NYSE">EWT</a>) down 4%. </li>
</ul>
Read Now: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44629640/us-services-sector-slows-sharply-as-hiring-drops-tariff-pressures-mount">US Services Sector Slows Sharply As Hiring Drops, Tariff Pressures Mount</a></li>
</ul>
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Wall Street Wipes Out $2 Trillion, Apple Eyes Worst Day Since COVID-19 Pandemic, Oil Plummets: What's Driving Markets Thursday?

<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stellantis-idles-plants-in-mexico-and-canada-due-to-tariffs.html">https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/stellantis-idles-plants-in-mexico-and-canada-due-to-tariffs.html</a>
&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>Stellantis is pausing production at assembly plants in Canada and Mexico.</li>
<li>The actions will result in temporary layoffs of roughly 900-U.S. represented employees in addition to roughly 7,000 other employees at the assembly plants.</li>
</ul>
&nbsp;
<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/STLA/">Stellantis</a> is pausing production at two assembly plants in Canada and Mexico as the company attempts to navigate President <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/donald-trump/">Donald Trump</a>'s new round of <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/03/trumps-25percent-auto-tariffs-are-in-effect-what-investors-need-to-know.html">25% automotive tariffs</a> that took effect Thursday.
The downtime includes two weeks at the automaker's Windsor Assembly Plant in Ontario, Canada, and the entire month of April at its Toluca Assembly Plant in Mexico. Both start Monday.
&nbsp;
The actions will result in temporary layoffs of roughly 900-U.S. represented employees in addition to roughly 7,000 other employees at the assembly plants.
In an email to employees Thursday, Stellantis North American chief Antonio Filosa said the plant downtime is tied to the tariffs, as the company reviews its options.
"We are continuing to assess the medium- and long-term effects of these tariffs on our operations, but also have decided to take some immediate actions, including temporarily pausing production at some of our Canadian and Mexican assembly plants," Filosa said. "Those actions will impact some employees at several of our U.S. powertrain and stamping facilities that support those operations."
The Canadian plant produces the Chrysler Pacifica minivan and the recently released Dodge Charger Daytona EV. The Mexico plant produces the Jeep Compass SUV and Jeep Wagoneer S EV.

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STLA

'Stellantis Idles Plants In Mexico And Canada Due To Tariffs' - CNBC

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiTFPN6SZsU" title="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiTFPN6SZsU">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yiTFPN6SZsU</a>

Politics

General

Watch Live: President Trump To Announce Tariffs At White House

Canada's Carney Says If He Wins April 28 Election, His Government Will Set Up A Trade Diversification Fund; Gov't Will Strengthen The Security Of Ports To Help Stop The Traffic Of Drugs Such As Fentanyl As Well As Guns; New Trade Diversification Fund Will Have C$5 Billion In Funding; Canada's System Of Agricultural Supply Management Will Never Be On The Table In Talks With The U.S.; Says He Will Meet Trump, Talk With Trump Was Very Cordial; Says It's Not Clear Whether There Will Be New Trade Discussions

President Trump Says Don't Think Americans Should Buy Cars Now To Avoid Tariffs

Mexican President Sheinbaum Says The Door Is Open To Talks With The US; We Will Do What Is Best For Mexico

Mexican Economy Minister Ebrard Says We Are At A Negotiating Table With US Commerce Secretary To Protect Autoparts Made In Mexico

<a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-considers-more-limited-tariff-plans-09b36d26?mod=latest_headlines" title="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-considers-more-limited-tariff-plans-09b36d26?mod=latest_headlines">https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-considers-more-limited-tariff-plans-09b36d26?mod=latest_headlines</a>

'U.S. Weighs Excluding Auto Parts From Tariffs' - WSJ Citing Moreno

White House Says President Trump To Hold Press Conference At 4 p.m. ET To Announced Auto Tariffs

<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/trump-prepares-auto-tariff-announcement-as-soon-as-wednesday" title="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/trump-prepares-auto-tariff-announcement-as-soon-as-wednesday">https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/trump-prepares-auto-tariff-announcement-as-soon-as-wednesday</a>

'President Trump Prepares Auto Tariff Announcement As Soon As Wednesday' - Bloomberg News

Markets

Head Of Mexico's PMI Says Company Is Actively Looking For New Markets For Motor Fuel Imports And Crude Oil Exports Amid US Tariff Risks

Mexico's economy is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/recession">slipping into recession</a>, and according to JPMorgan analyst Steven Palacio, it's no longer a question of if, but how deep. 
"We now think a recession is unavoidable" due to weak economic momentum, declining private consumption, and sluggish manufacturing, Palacio warned.
The bank now expects first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) to shrink by 1.5% quarter-over-quarter on an annualized basis. That&#8217;s a sharp revision from its previous forecast of 0.5% growth. This follows a 2.5% GDP decline in the fourth quarter, putting Mexico on track for a full-year contraction of 0.2%.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44360564/trumps-tariffs-could-fuel-inflation-in-canada-mexico-warns-economic-expert">Trump&#8217;s Tariffs Could Fuel Inflation In Canada, Mexico Warns Economic Expert</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Shrinking Economy, Weak Consumer Demand</h2>
JPMorgan&#8217;s latest data shows Mexico&#8217;s GDP proxy was down 0.2% in January, following a 1.1% month-over-month drop in December. 
"Momentum was already weak coming into the new year," Palacio noted, adding that January's GDP level is tracking a 3.1% annualized contraction in the first quarter. Services, which had already declined 0.8% in December, remained flat in January, further confirming a deteriorating growth outlook.
Palacio pointed out that Mexico's economic drivers have shifted significantly.
"For many quarters domestic demand single-handedly drove growth, largely driven by private consumption, but also by investment,&#8221; he added.
Investment was the first to falter, followed by private consumption, which is now feeling the strain of slowing job creation. External demand, particularly in manufacturing, has failed to offset these weaknesses, as production has remained inconsistent.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Inflation Easing, Rate Cuts Incoming</h2>
While economic growth deteriorates, inflation is cooling faster than expected. Core inflation has dropped to 3.56% year-over-year, with core services inflation finally slipping below 5%. Palacio noted, "The downward pull from cyclical weakness in the economy is becoming more noticeable in non-tradable prices." He also highlighted a decline in housing inflation, with non-tourism services now following the same trend.
Given these developments, JPMorgan sees an increasingly dovish stance from the Bank of Mexico (Banxico). Palacio believes the case for "back-to-back 50 basis point rate cuts at least in the next couple of meetings is strong," with risks skewed toward even deeper easing. The bank continues to project a year-end interest rate of 7.5% but sees further downside potential.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Investor Implications: ETFs, Stocks To Watch</h2>
With Mexico's economic downturn accelerating and inflation cooling, investors should brace for further volatility in the Mexican peso and local equities. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>), which tracks major Mexican stocks, could face downward pressure if GDP contracts as sharply as JPMorgan predicts. 
Key Mexican companies with exposure to domestic demand, such as Grupo Bimbo SAB de CV (OTCPK:GRBMF) and Walmart Inc&#8216;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WMT#NYSE">WMT</a>) Mexican entity, Walmart de México y Centroamérica, could also be impacted as consumer spending weakens.
Palacio's note follows a <a href="https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/oecd-economic-outlook-interim-report-march-2025_89af4857-en.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">report</a> from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which blames the global trade war for hurting Mexico&#8217;s economy.
With Mexico's growth story shifting from expansion to contraction, investors will need to adjust their strategies accordingly.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44473410/trumps-tariff-rates-could-be-double-what-market-participants-expect-goldman-sachs-warns">Trump&#8217;s Tariff Rates Could Be &#8216;Double What Market Participants Expect,&#8217; Goldman Sachs Warns</a></li>
</ul>
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GRBMF

'Recession To Hit' Mexico, Says Analyst As GDP Contracts, Inflation Eases, Banxico Faces Pressure

<a href="https://www.ft.com/content/114ceb19-86ef-43a0-9f45-7d45300c3ffd" title="https://www.ft.com/content/114ceb19-86ef-43a0-9f45-7d45300c3ffd">https://www.ft.com/content/114ceb19-86ef-43a0-9f45-7d45300c3ffd</a>

Financial Times Reported Donald Trump Considers Two-step Tariff Regime On April 2

The latest forecast from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development announced a particularly stark warning <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s">for North American economies. </a>
The institution's latest report warns that escalating tariffs combined with persistent inflation and policy uncertainty could drag Mexico into a recession while sharply slowing Canada's economy.
Although the U.S. economy continues to grow, signs of strain are emerging and economists are increasingly concerned that trade barriers imposed under Trump&#8217;s policies could exacerbate economic challenges by fueling inflation and prolonging tight monetary policy.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">North America's Growth Outlook Deteriorates</h1>
The Paris-based OECD downgraded its projections for all three of North America&#8217;s major economies in its March 2025 Economic Outlook Interim Report.
Economic growth in the U.S. is now expected to reach 2.2% in 2025, a decline of 0.2 percentage points from the institution's December forecast. The pace of expansion is forecast to slow further to 1.6% in 2026 as the economy absorbs the impact of tight monetary policy and rising trade restrictions.
Canada's outlook has weakened even more, with growth now projected at just 0.7% for 2025. The revision marks a steep 1.3 percentage-point downgrade from previous estimates, underscoring the mounting challenges for an economy heavily reliant on trade with its southern neighbor. 
Mexico's economic prospects have taken the hardest hit, with the OECD now predicting a 1.3% contraction in 2025, a drastic downward revision of 2.5 percentage points that signals a looming recession. Growth in Mexico is expected to remain negative in 2026, with output declining by an additional 0.6%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tariffs, Trade Wars Cloud Region Outlook</h1>
&#8220;These projections are based on an assumption that bilateral tariffs between Canada and the United States and between Mexico and the United States are raised by an additional 25 percentage points on almost all merchandise imports from April,&#8221; the OECD said. 
Mexico has not yet introduced specific trade policy changes but has indicated a general intention to retaliate should Washington proceed with its tariff increases. 
Given their deep trade ties with the U.S., both Canada and Mexico are particularly vulnerable to the economic fallout, with the OECD warning that "such tariffs are likely to be particularly costly for Canada and Mexico due to their greater openness to trade, and high proportion of trade with the United States."
&#8220;Greater policy uncertainty can be expected to hold back spending decisions by companies and households, particularly on longer-term items such as fixed capital investment and durable goods.&#8221;
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Trade Tariffs Fuel Inflation Risks</h1>
The report also highlights growing concerns over inflation, as higher trade costs ripple through supply chains and push up consumer prices.
"Increased trade costs are expected to feed through gradually to final goods prices, putting additional upward pressure on inflation in many countries and requiring monetary policy to remain restrictive for longer than previously expected," the OECD stated. 
In the U.S., inflation is now projected to rise to 2.8% in 2025, an upward revision of 0.7 percentage points from December estimates. Canada's inflation rate has also been revised higher to 3.1%, while Mexico's is now expected to reach 4.4%.
&#8220;If the announced trade policy actions persist, as assumed in the projections, the impact of higher costs will be amplified where inputs cross borders several times and duties are incurred at each stage, as is the case in the integrated North American market," the OECD said.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Uncertainty Weighs On Consumption And Investments</h1>
Uncertainty over trade policy is also discouraging business investment across the continent. Companies are hesitant to commit to capital expenditures in an environment where tariffs and trade rules are shifting unpredictably. 
Recent economic data already suggest that sentiment is deteriorating. 
"Consumer confidence generally dipped further in early 2025 and remains below long-run average levels despite strong growth in real incomes in many economies," the report noted. In the U.S., "personal real consumer spending declined in January."
The OECD also warned of potential volatility ahead, as any surprises — whether a resurgence in inflation or weaker-than-expected economic growth — could quickly ripple through global markets.
"A resurgence of inflation or downside surprises to economic growth could trigger a rapid repricing in financial markets and a further rise in market volatility," the report said.
Moreover, &#8220;higher-than-expected inflation would prompt more restrictive monetary policy.&#8221;
The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWW#NYSE">EWW</a>) traded 0.6% higher on Monday, eyeing its fifth straight session of gains. Canadian stocks gained substantially; the iShares MSCI Canada Index Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWC#NYSE">EWC</a>) rose by 1.1%, yet the fund has fallen by 5% from a month ago.
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