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HYATT HOTELS CORP - CL A

Hyatt Hotels

Hyatt is an operator of owned (3% of total rooms) and managed and franchised (97%) properties across about 30 upscale luxury brands, which includes vacation brands (Apple Leisure Group, Hyatt Ziva, and Hyatt Zilara), the recently launched full-service lifestyle brand Hyatt Centric, the soft lifestyle brand Unbound, the wellness brand Miraval, and the midscale extended-stay brand Studios. Hyatt acquired Two Roads Hospitality in 2018 and Apple Leisure Group in 2021. The regional exposure as a percentage of total rooms is 63% Americas, 15% rest of world, and 22% Asia-Pacific.

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Shares of travel and tourism-related companies are trading higher following President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China.

BofA Securities analyzes the extent of tariffs and the macroeconomic situation&#8217;s effect on the earnings of gaming and lodging companies.
Since BofA&#8217;s previous report on April 1, stocks in the lodging and gaming sector have dropped 11% % -25 %, underperforming the S&amp;P 500's 16% decline.
Rising tariffs have significantly increased recession risks, with the sector now pricing in an 85% % -100 % chance of a downturn.
Investor concerns have escalated from market correction to a potential full-scale recession. A tariff-driven slowdown could cut sector revenues by 2%–4% and EBITDA by 3%–8%.
Recessions differ in nature, but the past three saw average peak-to-trough GDP drops of 5.1% and 10% in RevPAR.
According to the analyst, sub-sector sensitivity varies, with regional gaming and skiing less affected, while hotels and timeshares are more exposed. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44698868/tariffs-recession-fears-could-derail-wayfair-rh-and-etsy-says-analyst">Tariffs, Recession Fears Could Derail Wayfair, RH And Etsy, Says Analyst</a>
Earnings risk is highest for gaming operators and lodging REITs due to their high operating leverage. COVID and GFC downturns lasted about 67 days; current declines are 55 days in, said the analyst.
A 1% GDP decline could reduce hotel RevPAR by 2%–4%, broader sector revenue by 2%–4%, and EBITDA by 3%–8%.
Tariffs are projected to impact GDP by 1%–1.5%, amplifying pressure on hospitality earnings.
Early data from Apple Hospitality REIT Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APLE#NYSE">APLE</a>) signals underperformance, with potential RevPAR guidance cuts of 2% to 3% and flat growth for the U.S. in 2025.
Domestic gaming stocks are currently trading at notably low valuations, with 2025 EBITDA multiples at 6.5x and free cash flow yields at 15%, while operating companies are at 6.3x and 20%, respectively, said the analyst.
These figures sit one standard deviation below long-term averages, hitting levels last seen in 2022 and even lower than in 2016 and 2018. 
Lodging C-Corps are also below historical norms, except for Hilton Hotels Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HLT#NYSE">HLT</a>), which still trades at a premium.
Lodging REITs have dropped to valuation lows only previously observed during the COVID-19 and Global Financial crises.
Meanwhile, timeshare valuations are also depressed, and Vail Resorts Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MTN#NYSE">MTN</a>) is now trading at its lowest multiple since 2011.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44717332/why-is-ev-maker-mullen-automotive-stock-tanking-today">Why Is EV Maker Mullen Automotive Stock Tanking Today?</a>
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BofA Flags Rising Risks For Gaming And Lodging Firms As Valuations Tumble

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Shares of consumer discretionary stocks are trading higher after President Trump issued a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, which may reduce risks towards the consumer economy.

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