Consumer prices in the U.S. eased faster than expected in April, with fresh tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump appearing not to have a swift and tangible impact on the cost of living. 



The Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.3% higher compared to a year ago, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday, missing economists' expectations of 2.4% and the previous reading. 



The monthly gain was 0.2%, rebounding from a prior decline of 0.1%, yet falling short of a 0.3% forecasted.



The core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy categories, rose to 2.8% on an annual basis, unchanged from both the previous and expected 2.8%. Month over month, it increased 0.2%, inching higher from the 0.1% uptick in March but below expectations of 0.3%



Shelter costs rose 0.3% in April, contributing to over half of the total monthly increase in the overall consumer price index.



Airline fares, used vehicles, communication services and apparel were among the key categories that saw price declines in April.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Metric</th><th>April 2025</th><th>March 2025</th><th>Forecast</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Headline CPI (YoY)</td><td>2.3%</td><td>2.4%</td><td>2.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Headline CPI (MoM)</td><td>0.2%</td><td>-0.1%</td><td>0.3%</td></tr><tr><td>Core CPI (YoY)</td><td>2.8%</td><td>2.8%</td><td>2.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Core CPI (MoM)</td><td>0.2%</td><td>0.1%</td><td>0.3%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Does This Mean For The Fed?</h3>



Before the release, interest rate futures reflected slim odds of policy easing. CME FedWatch data showed just an 8% chance of a rate cut in June, and 36% in July. 



Markets priced in only 60 basis points—0.6 percentage points—of total cuts by the end of 2025, well below earlier expectations for more aggressive easing.



Yet the modest progress is unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve toward near-term rate cuts, as markets remain cautious amid persistent inflation risks.



Inflation remains above the central bank's 2% target, and with shelter and services inflation proving sticky, policymakers may choose to keep borrowing costs elevated through the second half of the year.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Market Reactions: Dollar And Yields Ease Slightly</h3>



The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) slightly eased 0.1%, down following Monday's sharp 1.3% rally. The 2-year Treasury yield edged down to 3.98%. 



U.S. stock futures, which had rallied on Monday after news of a U.S.-China tariff truce, were mixed in premarket trading as traders recalibrated inflation and interest rate expectations.



Futures on the S&amp;P 500 index were up 0.2%, while contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.4%. 



Read now: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45368550/apple-may-up-its-numbers-amid-china-tariff-truce-trump-talks-500-billion-us-investment-after-tim-cook-call">Apple May &#8216;Up Its Numbers&#8217; Amid China Tariff Truce: Trump Talks $500 Billion US Investment After Tim Cook Call</a></li>
</ul>



Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Macro Economic Events

Econ #s

Economics

Inflation Eases In April As Trump's Tariffs Don't Push Prices Higher

U.S. stock futures fell on Tuesday after a stellar rally on Monday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading lower in premarket.



Tech, consumer discretionary, and communication services led Monday&#8217;s rally as stocks surged on the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling"> tariff truce</a> with China. 



President Donald Trump <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/05/45341590/trumps-drug-pricing-executive-order-could-rattle-pharma-stocksprice-cuts-up-to-80">signed an executive order</a> Monday, seeking to slash U.S. drug prices, fulfilling a social media pledge to achieve cuts of at least 59%. 



Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.45% and the two-year bond was at 3.98%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing a 91.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.20%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.44%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.54%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.25%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Tuesday. The SPY was down 0.42% to $580.57, while the QQQ declined 0.50% to $505.29, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Information technology, consumer discretionary, and communication services sectors saw the biggest gains on Monday. The Dow Jones index soared over 1,100 points as the U.S. and China agreed to a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling">90-day tariff truce</a>, effective May 14. 



This, along with the Trump administration&#8217;s progress to further formal trade talks amid growing economic pressures, fueled the market optimism.



However, this positive Monday followed a down week for major U.S. indices, with the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all closing lower on Friday.



In stock-specific news, NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NRG#NYSE">NRG</a>) reported strong first-quarter results, while Kindly MD Inc.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KDLY#NASDAQ">KDLY</a>) shares skyrocketed following a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) treasury strategy merger.



Meanwhile, utility stocks moved against the broader market trend, closing lower.



After Monday, all the indices were out of the correction zone. The S&amp;P 500 index was down 4.93% from its record high of 6,147.43 points, scaled on Feb. 19. Dow Jones was 5.91% lower than its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points, and Nasdaq 100 was 6.09% lower than its previous high of 22,222.61 points.



The Dow Jones index declined 119 points or 0.29% to 41,249.38, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index fell 0.071% to 5,659.91. Nasdaq Composite ended 0.004% higher at 17,928.92, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, dropped 0.16% to 2,023.07.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>4.35%</td><td>18,708.34</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>3.26%</td><td>5,844.19</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>2.81%</td><td>42,410.10</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>3.42%</td><td>2,092.20</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



Ryan Detrick from Carson Research highlighted in an X post that more than 55% of the S&amp;P 500 components made a new 20-day high on Monday.



According to the historical data presented by him, the S&amp;P 500 index ended 16.3% higher on average following days with such fresh 20-day highs. Out of the 30 times this has happened, the index has closed the year on a positive note 29 times.



&#8220;This is yet another clue the lows are likely in and better times are coming,&#8221; Detrick wrote in an X post.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&gt;55% of the components in the S&amp;P 500 made a new 20-day high today. This is yet another clue the lows are likely in and better times are coming. Higher a year later 29 out of 30 times and up 16.3% on average. <a href="https://t.co/O0129ED0b9">pic.twitter.com/O0129ED0b9</a>&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1922139786845831186?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The S&amp;P 500 index has a year-to-date performance low of 15.3%. Detrick highlighted that &#8220;Only three times in history has the S&amp;P 500 been down at least 15% YTD and moved back to positive by the end of the year.&#8221;



Despite having only three such instances historically, he added that 2025 could be the fourth such year.



&#8220;Call me crazy, but this year will be number four,&#8221; he said.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Only three times in history has the S&amp;P 500 been down at least 15% YTD and moved back to positive by the end of the year. Call me crazy, but this year will be number four. <a href="https://t.co/JnVDNDgUKz">pic.twitter.com/JnVDNDgUKz</a>&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1922131292151337121?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 13, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



After the 90-day tariff pause between the U.S. and China, John Murillo, chief dealing officer of B2BROKER, a global fintech solutions provider, said that the news triggered an immediate positive market response. 



"Stocks and oil prices have rebounded – apparently, in reaction to the news, which can lead to lower costs for businesses and consumers," Murillo noted.



Despite the initial positive action following the announcement, Murillo emphasized the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45367206/sp-500-rallies-over-3-on-us-china-90-day-tariff-truce-but-experts-warn-it-doesnt-guarantee-a-complete-resolution-of-the-trade-war">temporary nature of the agreement</a>. "Now, while the 90-day pause is a big step towards easing tensions, it&#8217;s crucial to remember that it doesn&#8217;t guarantee a complete resolution of the trade war."



Meanwhile, Ed Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, has <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45367861/ed-yardeni-revises-recession-odds-to-25-after-the-rally-bumps-sp-500-year-end-target-to-6500">lowered his U.S. recession probability</a> to 25% while raising his S&amp;P 500 target to 6,500 points for this year, following the trade deal with China. &#8212;



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Tuesday:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>April&#8217;s NFIB optimism index will be out by 6:00 a.m., whereas headline and core CPI data for April will be released by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Under Armour Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAA#NYSE">UAA</a>) rose 1.45% in premarket on Tuesday as it is expected to report earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect a quarterly earnings of 8 cents per share on the revenue of $1.16 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Cyberark Software Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CYBR#NASDAQ">CYBR</a>) was up 0.94% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 79 cents per share on revenue of $305.23 billion before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JD#NASDAQ">JD</a>) was 1% lower ahead of its earnings. Analysts expect earnings of $1.02 per share on revenue of $37.91 billion.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Acadia Healthcare Company Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ACHC#NASDAQ">ACHC</a>) jumped 4.99% after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter financial results after the closing bell on Monday. The company posted adjusted earnings of 40 cents per share, with revenue of $770.50 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) surged 8.98% after the announcement that the company will join the S&amp;P 500, effective before the opening of trading on Monday, May 19.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sangamo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGMO#NASDAQ">SGMO</a>) dropped 31.51% after reporting a quarterly loss of $0.14 per share versus the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.11.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Accelerate Diagnostics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXDX#NASDAQ">AXDX</a>) slumped 17.97% after it filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, leading to a delisting notice from Nasdaq due to non-compliance with listing requirements.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Microvision Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MVIS#NASDAQ">MVIS</a>) tumbled 13.22% after reporting a 40% decline in first-quarter revenue, falling to $0.6 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>OPTIMIZERx Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OPRX#NASDAQ">OPRX</a>) zoomed 24.89% after it reported strong first-quarter financial results with revenue increasing 11% year-over-year to $21.9 million.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 0.45% to hover around $62.23 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.61% to hover around $3,254.39 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.18% at the 101.6080 level.



Asian markets ended on a mixed note on Tuesday as India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell. While South Korea's Kospi, China&#8217;s CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, and Australia's ASX 200 indices advanced. European markets were also mixed in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45368511/china-to-us-goods-shipment-jump-after-90-day-tariff-postponement-a-big-backlog-is-looming">China To US Goods Shipment Jump After 90-Day Tariff Postponement: &#8216;A Big Backlog Is Looming&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Equities

News

Markets

General

$BTC

ACHC

AXDX

COIN

CYBR

KDLY

MVIS

OPRX

SGMO

US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After A Strong Rally: 'Lows Are Likely In And Better Times Are Coming,' Says Expert

UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) announced Tuesday morning that its CEO, Andrew Witty, will resign for personal reasons. The change is effective immediately.



Stephen Hemsley, who previously held the CEO title from 2006 to 2017, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/05/b45370370/unitedhealth-group-announces-leadership-transition" rel="noreferrer noopener">will succeed him</a>.



Hemsley will also remain chairman of UnitedHealth&#8217;s board of directors, and Witty will become senior adviser to the CEO.



Hemsley joined UnitedHealth Group in 1997 as chief operating officer and became president in 1999. He has been chair of the company&#8217;s board since leaving the CEO role in 2017.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/04/44821140/unitedhealth-demands-rapid-repayment-of-cyberattack-relief-loan-billions-providers-say-push-undermines-recovery" rel="noreferrer noopener">UnitedHealth Demands Rapid Repayment Of Cyberattack Relief Loan Billions, Providers Say Push Undermines Recovery</a>



The company also revealed that it would suspend its 2025 outlook, citing that care activity continued to accelerate.



UnitedHealth noted broadening to more types of benefit offerings than seen in the first quarter, and the medical costs of many Medicare Advantage beneficiaries new to UnitedHealthcare remained higher than expected.



It said it &#8220;expects to return to growth in 2026,&#8221; according to the announcement.



&#8220;UnitedHealth Group has tremendous opportunities to grow as we continue to help improve health care and to perform to our potential — and, in so doing, return to our long-term growth objective of 13 to 16 percent,&#8221; Hemsley continued.



The insurance giant reported adjusted EPS of $7.20 in April, up from $6.91 a year ago, missing the consensus of $7.29. Revenues increased 6.8% year over year to $109.6 billion, missing the&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus of $111.60 billion</a>.



&#8220;UnitedHealth Group…did not perform up to our expectations, and we are aggressively addressing those challenges to position us well for the years ahead and return to our long-term earnings growth rate target of 13 to 16%,&#8221; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/04/44860240/unitedhealth-slashes-2025-outlook-on-medicare-funding-reductions-stock-crashes" rel="noreferrer noopener">Witty said</a>.



Prior Guidance: UnitedHealth Group cuts its 2025 performance outlook. It expected adjusted earnings of $26.00-$26.50 per share versus&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/01/43025159/unitedhealth-q4-earnings-revenue-falls-short-medical-ratio-rises-to-85-5-stock-falls" rel="noreferrer noopener">prior guidance of 29.50-$30.00</a> per share, versus consensus of $29.73, reflecting:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Heightened care activity indications within UnitedHealthcare&#8217;s Medicare Advantage businesses became visible as the quarter closed, far above the planned 2025 increase consistent with the elevated levels in 2024, most notable within physician and outpatient services.</li>



<li>Unanticipated changes in the profile of Optum Health members are impacting planned 2025 reimbursement due to unexpectedly minimal 2024 beneficiary engagement by plans exiting markets. In addition, a greater-than-expected impact to current and new complex patients from the ongoing Medicare funding reductions enacted by the previous administration.</li>
</ul>



Price Action: At the last check on Tuesday, UNH stock was down 11% at $337.02 during the premarket session.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/biotech/25/05/45358050/nano-cap-neurosense-therapeutics-gets-14-price-forecast-as-primec-nears-key-als-milestones" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Why This Nano-Cap Stock Might Skyrocket To $14, Per Analyst Insights</a></li>
</ul>



Photo by JHVEPhoto via Shutterstock

Large Cap

Guidance

Health Care

Management

Movers

UnitedHealth Names New CEO, Suspends 2025 Guidance, Stock Plunges

In the wake of a 90-day suspension of most tariffs between the U.S. and China, President Donald Trump stated that he engaged in talks with&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) CEO Tim Cook.



What Happened: Trump revealed that Cook intends to boost Apple&#8217;s investment in U.S. operations. &#8220;I spoke to Tim Cook this morning and he&#8217;s going to, I think, even up his numbers,&#8221; Trump said. &#8220;$500 billion, he&#8217;s going to be building a lot of plants in the United States for Apple. And we look forward to that,&#8221; <a href="https://editorial.benzinga.com/wp-admin/admin.php?id=3046&amp;page=benzinga-neuro-displayarticle">reported</a> CNBC.



In early February, Apple revealed plans to invest $500 billion in expanding its U.S. operations, which include assembling artificial intelligence servers in Houston.



Although the U.S.-China trade war truce is expected to benefit Apple, it's uncertain how much Monday's announcement provided immediate relief for the tech giant. Despite a few exemptions, Apple continues to face tariffs on Chinese imports as well as products manufactured in secondary hubs like India and Vietnam.



SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/05/45356571/shiba-inu-jumps-27-in-7-days-what-is-going-on" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shiba Inu Jumps 27% In 7 Days: What Is Going On? &#8211; Benzinga</a>



Why It Matters: The Trump administration has been pressuring Apple to move device production, including iPhones, to the U.S.—a shift many experts view as both unlikely and expensive. Earlier this month, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick indicated that Cook had <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45162929/tim-cook-tells-commerce-secretary-lutnick-how-apple-could-bring-iphone-manufacturing-to-us">discussed</a> the potential of relocating iPhone production to the U.S. This conversation aligns with the Trump administration&#8217;s push for Apple to shift device production to the U.S.



On an earnings call, Cook discussed Apple's tariff strategy with investors, stating that the company is currently sourcing products bound for the U.S. from manufacturing sites in Vietnam and India. However, he refrained from making projections beyond June, describing the situation as "difficult to predict."



Furthermore, amid ongoing trade tensions, recent reports indicate that Apple has been contemplating<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45347263/apple-weighs-iphone-price-hike-this-fall-steering-clear-of-tariff-blame-report"> raising the prices</a> for its forthcoming fall iPhone models. However, the tech giant is keen to dismiss any notion that a possible price increase is tied to U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, where most of its devices are assembled.



The tariff suspension resulted in a 6.3% increase in Apple&#8217;s stock on Monday. On a year-to-date basis, the stock plunged 13.56%, as per <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">data </a>from Benzinga Pro.



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/news/25/05/45314762/charlie-munger-was-once-asked-why-warren-buffett-was-so-much-richer-and-replied-he-got-an-earlier-start-before-adding-why-was-albert-einstein-poorer-than-i-was" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Charlie Munger Was Once Asked Why Warren Buffett Was So Much Richer — He Replied, &#8216;He Got An Earlier Start,&#8217; Then Added, &#8216;Why Was Albert Einstein Poorer Than I Was?&#8217; &#8211; Benzinga</a></li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Tech

AAPL

Apple May 'Up Its Numbers' Amid China Tariff Truce: Trump Talks $500 Billion US Investment After Tim Cook Call

Renowned independent investment strategist Ed Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, has lowered his U.S. recession probability while raising his S&amp;P 500 target following the trade deal with China.



What Happened: After the U.S. and China announced a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45341884/apple-amazon-nvidia-rise-in-monday-premarket-as-us-china-agree-to-90-day-tariff-truce-neither-side-wants-a-decoupling">90-day truce </a>on Monday, the markets cheered the development as the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rallied over 3%.



While this provides a short-term relief, Yardeni noted in his QuickTakes that the negative wealth effect of President Donald Trump&#8217;s tariffs was &#8220;probably insignificant&#8221; after the announcement of the deal.



According to his earlier analysis, the tariff turmoil was having a &#8220;negative wealth effect on consumers, especially retired and soon-to-be retiring Baby Boomers, who collectively own about $25 trillion in corporate equities and mutual funds.&#8221;



This led him to raise the &#8220;subjective probability of a recession&#8221; this year from 20% to 35% on March 5, and from 35% to 45% on March 31 as stock prices tanked in response to the tariffs.



However, he said that &#8220;We didn&#8217;t cross over to the dark side subsequently, i.e., forecasting greater than a 50% chance of a recession. Instead, we lowered our recession odds back down to 35% on May 4. Now we are lowering it again to 25%.&#8221;



After Monday&#8217;s stock market rally, he also raised the S&amp;P 500 year-end target back up to 6,500 from 6,000.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45367206/sp-500-rallies-over-3-on-us-china-90-day-tariff-truce-but-experts-warn-it-doesnt-guarantee">S&amp;P 500 Rallies Over 3% On US-China 90-Day Tariff Truce, But Experts Warn It &#8216;Doesn&#8217;t Guarantee A Complete Resolution Of The Trade War&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: Concerning other metrics, Yardeni highlighted that he has raised the real GDP growth range to 1.5%-2.5% this year, up from our previous 0.5%-1.5%.



Also, he predicts the S&amp;P 500 forward earnings to rise to $300 per share at the end of this year.



&#8220;We now see the S&amp;P 500 forward P/E at 21.6 at the end of the year rather than 20.0 as we previously had projected,&#8221; he said.



Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, jumped with joy on Monday. The SPY was up 3.30% to $582.99, while the QQQ advanced 4.07% to $507.85, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Here&#8217;s how the benchmark indices performed on Monday. 



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>4.35%</td><td>18,708.34</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>3.26%</td><td>5,844.19</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>2.81%</td><td>42,410.10</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>3.42%</td><td>2,092.20</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



After Monday, all the indices were out of the correction zone. The S&amp;P 500 index was down 4.93% from its record high of 6,147.43 points, scaled on Feb. 19. Dow Jones was 5.91% lower than its 52-week high of 45,073.63 points, and Nasdaq 100 was 6.09% lower than its previous high of 22,222.61 points.



On Tuesday, the futures of the Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading lower.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45344120/cathie-wood-says-ai-innovation-in-healthcare-will-be-more-profound-than-autonomous-taxi-networks-humanoid-robots" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cathie Wood Says AI Innovation In Healthcare Will Be More ‘Profound' Than Autonomous Taxi Networks, Humanoid Robots</a></li>
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Ed Yardeni Slashes Recession Odds To 25% After US Stocks Rally, Lifts S&P 500 Year-End Target To 6,500

Leading cryptocurrencies corrected on Monday even as the U.S. and China slashed tariffs to avert a trade war.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 9:15 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>-1.98%</td><td>$102,569.21</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-2.64%</td><td>$2,468.88</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>-5.47%</td><td>$0.2254</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin witnessed a big sell-off after the market opened, slipping below $101,000, but recovered to the mid-$102,000s by evening.



Ethereum traders also cashed in, dragging its price to $2,411.59 before a recovery late evening.



Bitcoin's market dominance fell further to 61.9%, while Ethereum's share rose to 9.1%, suggesting rotation of capital away from the apex cryptocurrency.



The pullback resulted in liquidations worth more than $690 million in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for $489 million.



Bitcoin's Open Interest dropped 0.73% in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, bets against the cryptocurrency in the Binance derivatives market fell sharply, although the majority were still bearish.



"Greed" sentiment prevailed in the market, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24-Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Cryptocurrency</td><td>Gains +/-</td><td>Price (Recorded at 9:15 p.m. ET)</td></tr><tr><td>Dogwifhat (WIF)</td><td>+15.56%</td><td>$1.12</td></tr><tr><td>Four (FORM)</td><td>+5.67%</td><td>$2.81</td></tr><tr><td>XRP (XRP)</td><td>+3.66%</td><td>$2.49</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization stood at $3.29 trillion, following a 1.93% decline in the last 24 hours.



Stocks started the fresh trading week with a bang. The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 1,160.72 points, or 2.81%, to end at 42,410.10. The S&amp;P 500 rose 3.26% to close at 5,844.19, while the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite popped 4.35% to end at 18,708.34.



The surge came after the U.S. and China <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45347089/wall-street-rips-higher-as-tariff-truce-halts-us-china-economic-escalation">agreed to slash their retaliatory tariffs</a> by over 100 percentage points, allaying concerns of a trade war.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michaël van de Poppe said he would be interested in the $2,100-$2,250 area if Ethereum sees a pullback.



"I expect shallow corrections, but would be diving into these as opportunities," the trader revealed his strategy.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">If the markets provide a correction, then I&#39;d be interested in anything between $2,100-2,250 for <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$ETH</a>. I expect shallow corrections, but would be diving into these as opportunities. <a href="https://t.co/MiGFhSQ90P">pic.twitter.com/MiGFhSQ90P</a>&mdash; Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1922001579697140076?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Another widely followed analyst, Rekt Capital, noted that ETH has reclaimed the $2200-$4000 macro range and will "likely" lift across the range over time.



"Any dips, if needed at all, would only solidify $2,200 as range low support," the analyst predicted.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true"><a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24ETH&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$ETH</a> Key Ethereum Weekly Close secured Ethereum has reclaimed the $2200-$4000 Macro Range History suggests that over time, Ethereum is likely to lift across the Range Any dips, if needed at all, would only solidify $2200 as Range Low support<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ETH?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ETH</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Crypto?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Crypto</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Ethereum?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Ethereum</a> <a href="https://t.co/gtM5xcZnwp">https://t.co/gtM5xcZnwp</a> <a href="https://t.co/fyGlz8qeFJ">pic.twitter.com/fyGlz8qeFJ</a>&mdash; Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) <a href="https://twitter.com/rektcapital/status/1921875905082704365?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo Courtesy: alfernec on Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/05/45365186/coinbase-stock-jumps-nearly-11-after-hours-monday-heres-why">Coinbase Stock Jumps Nearly 11% After-Hours Monday: Here&#8217;s Why</a></li>
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Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Retreat, Stocks Rally After US-China Tariff De-Escalation: Analyst Sees Opportunity In $2,100-2,250 If ETH Corrects

Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>), the largest U.S. crypto exchange, is set to join the S&amp;P 500, replacing Discover Financial Services (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DFS#NYSE">DFS</a>) in the benchmark index, according to a Monday announcement.



What Happened:&nbsp;The inclusion of Coinbase in the S&amp;P 500 will become effective before trading begins on May 19, according to a press release shared by S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices.



With this, Coinbase becomes the first company with cryptocurrency as its core business to enter the coveted index that holds some of the most valued stocks in the world, including Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).



Coinbase&nbsp;went public on April 14,&nbsp;2021, through a direct listing&nbsp;on the Nasdaq under the&nbsp;ticker COIN. The company boasted a market capitalization of nearly $53 billion as of this writing.



Discover, which will be delisted, had a 0.10% weight in the index, <a href="https://www.slickcharts.com/sp500">according </a>to Slickcharts.



See Also:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/05/45342167/why-is-this-dogecoin-clone-surging-on-monday-morning" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Why Is This Dogecoin Clone Surging On Monday Morning?</a>



&#8220;This milestone represents what the true believers, from retail investors to institutional investors to our employees and partners, knew all along,&#8221; said CEO Brian Armstrong.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Coinbase just became the first and only crypto company to join the S&amp;P 500. This milestone represents what the true believers, from retail investors to institutional investors to our employees and partners, knew all along. Crypto is here to stay. <a href="https://t.co/MnMRCX8pMg">https://t.co/MnMRCX8pMg</a>&mdash; Brian Armstrong (@brian_armstrong) <a href="https://twitter.com/brian_armstrong/status/1922048865395511477?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



The company reported disappointing <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/05/45302422/coinbase-q1-earnings-highlights-revenue-eps-miss-2025">first-quarter financial results</a> last week, missing the revenue and earnings expectations.



Price Action:&nbsp; Shares of Coinbase popped 10.9% in after-hours trading after closing 3.96% higher at $207.22&nbsp; during Monday&#8217;s regular trading session, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?_gl=1&#x2A;380nj0&#x2A;_ga&#x2A;MTEyOTAyOTcxMy4xNzEzMzY0NTYy&#x2A;_ga_V7ZK73W7N0&#x2A;MTcxNDk4MzIzMi42LjEuMTcxNDk4OTE0Ni4wLjAuMA.." target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">data from Benzinga Pro</a>. Year-to-date, the stock has lost 16.54% of its value.



As of this writing, COIN ranked high on growth, an indicator of a stock&#8217;s combined historical expansion in earnings and revenue across multiple periods.&nbsp; To check how other cryptocurrency-related stocks stack up against COIN, visit&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings</a>.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="505" height="187" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/12205044/Screenshot-2025-05-13-062019.png" alt="" class="wp-image-912641" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/12205044/Screenshot-2025-05-13-062019.png 505w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/12205044/Screenshot-2025-05-13-062019-300x111.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 505px) 100vw, 505px" /></figure>



Photo Courtesy: Mehaniq On Shutterstock.com



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Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/apis?utm_source=benzinga.com&amp;utm_campaign=article-bottom" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank"></a>

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Coinbase Stock Jumps Nearly 11% After-Hours Monday: Here's Why

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