A quiet day on Wall Street turned into a major win for airline investors Thursday, as Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) surged 12% after posting second-quarter results that topped both earnings and revenue expectations, while indicating a strong demand outlook, sparking <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/25/07/46341383/delta-air-lines-ceo-confident-in-stronger-2025-as-demand-holds-steady">a broad rally across the sector.</a>



Shares of American Airlines Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) jumped 12.5% and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rallied 13.5%. The U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>), which tracks airline stocks, soared 7.2% for its best day since the 90-day tariff pause in April.



Elsewhere, major large-cap averages were little moved. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.3% after hitting all-time highs on Wednesday. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) eased 0.2%, following a 1.8% surge the day before that pushed its market cap to a record-breaking $4 trillion — the largest ever for any company.



Small-cap stocks continued to outperform, with the Russell 2000 touching levels last seen in February. 



A day earlier, President Donald Trump announced sweeping 50% tariffs on imports from Brazil and confirmed the 50% tariff on copper, effective Aug. 1.



iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWZ#NYSE">EWZ</a>) fell 1.6% Thursday, adding to a 1.7% decline on Wednesday. The combined 3.3% drop marked the worst two-day performance for Brazilian equities since early April.



Copper futures surged 2.2% to around $5.60 per pound in reaction, with strength spilling into other industrial metals. Silver rose 1.6%, while palladium gained 3.6%, reflecting expectations of tightening supply.



Crude oil prices declined over 2% as the market absorbed reports that OPEC+ is considering halting its planned production increases starting in October, highlighting concerns about a potential oversupply after the summer. 



In economic news, the U.S. labor market showed continued resilience as initial jobless claims dropped to 237,000 last week, beating forecasts. However, continuing claims rose to 1.965 million, the highest level since 2021.



Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) traded flat at $111,300 after touching a fresh record of $112,040 on Wednesday.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>%chg</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,266.68</td><td>0.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>44,705.80</td><td>0.6%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>6,275.94</td><td>0.2%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>22,790.40</td><td>-0.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:18 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) inched 0.2% higher to $574.78.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.6% to $446.98.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;slipped 0.3% to $554.72.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) soared 0.7% to $225.12.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 1%; the&nbsp;Technology&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, down 0.4%.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Thursday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NCLH#NYSE">NCLH</a>) jumped more than 4% after NorthCoast Research raised its price target to $28 from $21, reiterating its &#8216;Buy&#8217; rating.</li>



<li>Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>) climbed 3.3% as copper prices extended gains, with futures rising above $5.60 per pound amid renewed supply concerns.</li>



<li>Nu Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NU#NYSE">NU</a>) dropped 5.1% after Trump announced a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports, sparking a broad selloff in Brazil-linked assets. Read now:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/07/46344520/defense-stocks-outperform-tech-trump-budget-boost"></a></li>



<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/07/46344520/defense-stocks-outperform-tech-trump-budget-boost">Forget Tech—Trump Just Made Defense The Hottest Trade On Wall Street</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Trading Ideas

$BTC

JETS

NCLH

NVDA

Airline Stocks Take Off, Trump Hits Brazilian ETF: What's Moving Markets Thursday?

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) has punched through the $113,000 mark, igniting fresh bullish momentum across the crypto market, but some experts caution the rally <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/bitcoin-price-prediction">may be short-lived.</a>



What Happened: Crypto trader Jelle compared the move to "a ball breaking above the surface," and suggests it's finally time for Bitcoin to soar.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Like a ball being held underwater. We just broke above the surface &#8211; time to shoot higher.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bitcoin?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Bitcoin</a> <a href="https://t.co/8t1PipBaTt">pic.twitter.com/8t1PipBaTt</a>&mdash; Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL) <a href="https://twitter.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1943358523339084183?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 10, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



But not everyone is convinced the path higher will be smooth. 



CoinBureau co-founder Nic Puckrin told Benzinga that this breakout wasn't unexpected, given Bitcoin's recent low volatility and ongoing correlation with tech stocks like Nvidia, which just crossed a $4 trillion market cap.



Puckrin cautions that heavy resistance lies just ahead and warns that profit-taking around $115,000 could cool the momentum. 



He emphasized this move likely isn't the final run-up of the cycle, but rather a "pressure release," possibly followed by a correction and slower summer trading before the next major leg higher.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46348748/bitcoins-booming-coinbases-167-rally-says-told-you-so">Bitcoin&#8217;s Booming &#8211; Coinbase&#8217;s 167% Rally Says &#8216;Told You So&#8217;</a>



Why It Matters: According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., long-term Bitcoin holders (LTHs) have a history of <a href="https://x.com/thecryptobasic/status/1942976175925600550">selling </a>when their unrealized profits reach 300%, often triggering short-term corrections. 



This behaviour was evident during the earlier selloffs near $73,000 and $106,000.



At the current cost basis, Adler estimates Bitcoin would need to hit $137,600 before reaching that 300% unrealized profit threshold again. Until then, some gradual selling may occur, but a major LTH exodus seems unlikely just yet.



Adler also pointed out that BTC typically hits a new all-time high within 50 days of the last one—as long as a 20%+ correction doesn&#8217;t occur—suggesting more upside could follow if momentum holds.



Glassnode reports that a majority of BTC wealth is now held by newer long-term investors. Short-term holder activity remains minimal, reinforcing a more structurally bullish backdrop.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46345201/bitcoins-rally-to-112000-yes-its-different-this-time">Bitcoin&#8217;s Rally To $112,000: Yes, It&#8217;s Different This Time</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Cryptocurrency

News

Bitcoin Breaks Above $113,000...But There Is A Catch

Seasonality suggests that the bullish price action we&#8217;ve seen lately is likely to continue into the last week of July.



That sets us up perfectly for a low-risk, high-reward option play.



The trade in question is a long call in fintech company SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOFI#NASDAQ">SOFI</a>). This is a very short-term trade leaning into the seasonality of July. Once August is upon us, the seasonality of this trade will taper sideways into negative price behavior.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How Chris Capre Is Trading This Week's Volatility — And Landing Triple-Digit Gains</h2>



Markets are bouncing on inflation data, Fed speculation, and rising geopolitical tension. While most traders are getting whipsawed, former hedge fund manager Chris Capre is capitalizing on the chaos. He's using a fast-moving strategy called Trading Waves — explicitly built for high-volatility conditions like this — and the results speak for themselves:



Chris recently locked in +87.5% on PANW, +66% on NVDA, and +115% on SOXL just by timing key breakouts and reversals. Now you can get inside the system yourself, free for 7 days, and see exactly how he's setting up for this week's opportunities. Get started right <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/7-day-free-trial-chris-capre-trading-waves/?utm_campaign=7daytrial&amp;utm_adType=sponsorad&amp;utm_ad=RDweb071025">HERE</a>.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Eye On Expiration Date</h2>



Please note the expiration of this quick trade. Option positioning is currently very bullish in the chains with more than 45,000 contracts positioned between the $20 and $22.50 strike price. SOFI&#8217;s relative resistance zone is around $22.5, while support sits near $18.50.



With that in mind, here&#8217;s the trade:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Buy to open SOFI 25 Jul (weekly) $19 calls currently priced at $1.55.</li>
</ul>



The breakeven price of the stock at expiration on this trade is calculated by adding the debit to the strike price = $19 + $1.55 =$20.55 plus commissions. The implied volatility move is showing a target around $22.50.&nbsp;



The three main possible ways to leave the trade include:



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>Hold the option until the July 25 expiration date. If the price of the stock is above $19.50, the trader will relinquish the stock and can sell it at the current market price (not my first choice).</li>



<li>Set an alert for $22. Sell the option at the time the stock is priced at $22, regardless of the time the price is triggered.</li>



<li>Set a risk threshold for this option cost. I normally use 50% but this is a personal decision. Once the option cost falls below $0.80, it is advisable to sell.</li>
</ol>



Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



Photo: Shutterstock

Opinion

SOFI

This Week's Easy Option Play

Early data from Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) Prime Day 2025 is in, and one major firm sees the mega-sale event driving traffic and grabbing market <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/07/46247962/21-billion-in-4-days-amazon-prime-day-set-to-go-beast-mode-and-its-stock-might-join-the-party">share for the retailer. </a>



Early Data: Analysts from Telsey Advisory Group highlighted Google Trends data showing that Amazon's web traffic increased by more than 50% during the first 36 hours of Prime Day, compared to the previous two-week period. 



U.S. online retail sales from the first day of Prime Day climbed 10% year-over-year to reach $7.9 billion, according to Adobe Analytics.&nbsp;



Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46308025/get-ready-for-800-hours-of-blackouts-trumps-doe-warns?utm_source=articleShare">Get Ready For 800 Hours Of Blackouts, Trump&#8217;s DOE Warns</a>&nbsp;



Categories showing the strongest sequential growth included appliances, electronics, tools and home improvement, home and garden, furniture, apparel and toys.&nbsp;



Amazon has doubled the duration of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/large-cap/25/07/46299727/amazon-prime-day-vs-walmart-deals-days-vs-target-circle-week-summer-sales-showdown">its sales event </a>from 24 hours to 48 hours this year, and Telsey Group sees the longer promotional period driving increased traffic and sales for the retailer. 



According to data from Numerator, the average household spent $126.26 on Amazon—almost identical to the $126.54 average during the first 32 hours of Prime Day 2024.&nbsp;



The average order value was $57.12, compared to about $60.03 last year. Top-selling items were household essentials including Liquid I.V., Dawn Platinum Powerwash, Premier Protein Shakes and electronics including the Fire TV Stick.



If average spend continues on a similar trend for the duration of 2025's extended Prime Day, Amazon could see record-breaking sales over the four-day period.&nbsp;



Telsey analysts pointed to a projection from Adobe Analytics for total sales over the Prime Day event to approach $23.8 billion, which would be a 60%+ jump over last year's event. 



Telsey Advisory Group maintained Amazon stock with an Outperform rating and $235 price target.&nbsp;



AMZN Price Action: Amazon.com shares were down 0.23% at $222.03 at the time of publication Thursday, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">according to Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next:&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/health-care/25/07/46326465/unitedhealth-slammed-with-another-lawsuit-over-119-billion-stock-plunge?utm_source=articleShare">UnitedHealth Slammed With Another Lawsuit Over $119 Billion Stock Plunge</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Large Cap

Analyst Ratings

Movers

Tech

AMZN

Amazon Prime Day 1 Sales Roar To $7.9 Billion, Shoppers Slam Website With Traffic Up 50%+

Once seen as one of Wall Street's favorite bets on a Trump presidency, regional bank stocks have lagged in 2025—but renewed optimism around deregulation and cheap valuations could <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">soon turn the tide.</a>



When Donald Trump won the presidential election for a second time in November 2024, regional bank stocks skyrocketed.



The SPDR Regional Banking ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KRE#NYSE">KRE</a>), which tracks 147 small- and mid-sized U.S. lenders, surged 13% on Nov. 6, 2024. That was its biggest one-day rally since the vaccine frenzy of November 2020, and excluding that anomaly, the strongest since October 2008.



The Russell 2000 index, which heavily weights regional banks, popped 6% that same day, outshining the S&amp;P 500's 2.5% and the Nasdaq 100's 2.7% moves. 



No other sector on Wall Street rallied as sharply as regional banks did following the 2024 election.



Investors were betting hard that a deregulatory Trump agenda would fuel profits, spark mergers and acquisitions and slash compliance costs for smaller banks.



After Trump was sworn in January, many expected a continuation of the rally, but that never came.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="525" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-1024x525.png" alt="" class="wp-image-980297" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-1024x525.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-300x154.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-768x394.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-1536x788.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10111357/image-122-2048x1051.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Six Months In, This Trade Has Gone Nowhere—Yet</h2>



Six months into the new administration, the KRE ETF is barely unchanged for the year, while tech-heavy benchmarks continue to rise.



Some of the shine faded as investors realized that regulatory rollbacks would take time, and Federal Reserve rate cuts—key to boosting lending—never materialized.



While Wall Street has already rewarded large-cap financials—Investment Banking and Diversified Bank stocks have outperformed in 2025—regional banks have been left behind.



The iShares U.S. Broker-Dealers &amp; Securities Exchange ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAI#NYSE">IAI</a>) is up 18% year-to-date, nearly three times the gain of regional banks.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">This Forgotten Trump Trade May Be Ready To Reignite, Says Wall Street Veteran</h2>



Ed Yardeni believes that's exactly why now might be the moment to look at regional banks again.



"The Regional Banks index can't boast that. But trading at a much lower P/E and with rosy earnings rebound prospects, Regional Banks may be the more interesting play," said the Wall Street veteran in a Thursday note.



Valuation is a big part of the bull case. 



Regional banks trade at a significant discount to large-cap banks, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio in the single digits. 



The Diversified Banks and Investment Banking &amp; Brokerage industries trade at the highest forward P/Es—13.3 and 15.9—while Regional Banks lag behind with the lowest at 11.1.



That's historically low, suggesting investors aren't yet pricing in a regulatory tailwind.



&#8220;The Regional Banks industry's forward revenues and operating earnings remain well off their 2023 highs, but earnings growth is expected to improve sharply from a 7.6% decline in 2024 to increases of 11.3% and 15.5% this year and next,&#8221; Yardeni said.



Mergers and acquisitions could also come back in vogue if Trump delivers on regulatory relief. During his first term, regional banks were among the most active dealmakers. 



A repeat could help mid-sized lenders scale up in a competitive landscape dominated by giants like JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>) and Bank of America Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)



Read now: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/earnings/25/07/46330576/big-banks-q2-earnings-july-2025">Big Bank Stocks Soared In 2025—But This Earnings Season Could Shake Things Up</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Equities

Government

Mid Cap

Regulations

Sector ETFs

Small Cap

Federal Reserve

ETFs

This Trump Trade Boomed After Election—Now It May Be Making A Comeback

While investors obsess over record highs in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq 100, one sector quietly crushed them both last quarter, and real money <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-aerospace-defense-stocks">is pouring in fast.</a>



In the first half of 2025, the iShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#NYSE">ITA</a>) surged 25%, marking the fund's best half-year performance since inception. That's a 20 percentage point outperformance over the Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) and 17 points above the tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Defense Stocks Crushed Tech In Last Quarter's Rally</h3>



But the blowout mainly occurred in the second quarter. The ITA ETF surged 23.2% between April and June, its best quarter ever, outpacing the Nasdaq 100's sharpest rally since early 2023 by five percentage points.



Crucially, this isn't just momentum chasing. Investors have committed capital, with ITA notching 10 straight weeks of inflows through July 10—the longest stretch since early 2023.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Best Defense Stocks In 2025</h3>



Among ITA's top holdings, nine of the top 10 are firmly in the green for the year as of July 10, with only Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>) trailing. Here&#8217;s a look at how the biggest names are performing:



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Name</th><th>Weight in ITA ETF</th><th>Return YTD</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>General Electric Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>)</td><td>20.00%</td><td>+50.59%</td></tr><tr><td>RTX Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>)</td><td>14.70%</td><td>+27.61%</td></tr><tr><td>The Boeing Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>)</td><td>9.22%</td><td>+28.02%</td></tr><tr><td>General Dynamics Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GD#NYSE">GD</a>)</td><td>4.66%</td><td>+15.67%</td></tr><tr><td>TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TDG#NYSE">TDG</a>)</td><td>4.63%</td><td>+20.45%</td></tr><tr><td>Howmet Aerospace Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HWM#NYSE">HWM</a>)</td><td>4.55%</td><td>+66.11%</td></tr><tr><td>L3Harris Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LHX#NYSE">LHX</a>)</td><td>4.51%</td><td>+24.48%</td></tr><tr><td>Northrop Grumman Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOC#NYSE">NOC</a>)</td><td>4.47%</td><td>+9.24%</td></tr><tr><td>Axon Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXON#NASDAQ">AXON</a>)</td><td>4.40%</td><td>+35.59%</td></tr><tr><td>Lockheed Martin Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>)</td><td>4.39%</td><td>-3.34%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Why Is The Defense Sector Booming?



This rally in defense stocks isn&#8217;t just about earnings—it's about Washington policy, global geopolitical risks, and budget flows.



Following years of underinvestment, Trump's return to the White House has kicked off a rearmament cycle.



On July 4, Trump signed the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act", unlocking $156.2 billion in targeted defense funding—the Pentagon's biggest budget infusion in over a decade.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Inside The New Defense Bill?</h3>



The funding, detailed in Title II of the act, includes:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>$29.2 billion for shipbuilding</li>



<li>$24.4 billion for integrated air and missile defense – the "Golden Dome" initiative</li>



<li>$25.4 billion for munitions and supply chain resilience</li>



<li>$16.0 billion for low-cost weapons scaling</li>



<li>$8.6 billion for air superiority projects</li>



<li>$10.8 billion for nuclear force upgrades</li>
</ul>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Defense Stocks Wall Street Is Watching Now</h3>



In a note shared earlier this week, Goldman Sachs analyst Noah Poponak flagged four defense contractors as top beneficiaries of the Pentagon&#8217;s defense spending:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Huntington Ingalls Industries Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HII#NYSE">HII</a>): Backed by over $5 billion in industrial supply chain funding. Already awarded a $1.3 billion workforce grant.</li>



<li>L3Harris Technologies Inc.: Poised to win missile propulsion and satellite contracts tied to the Golden Dome program.</li>



<li>Kratos Defense &amp; Security Solutions Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KTOS#NASDAQ">KTOS</a>): Builds low-cost drones and propulsion systems, a core focus in the Pentagon's push for affordable mass-produced systems. Shares of KTOS have already rallied over 70% year-to-date, marking the best performance in the ITA ETF. </li>



<li>AeroVironment Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVAV#NASDAQ">AVAV</a>): Developer of Switchblade tactical drones, a likely beneficiary of $1.4 billion in small unmanned aerial systems funding.</li>
</ul>



Read now: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/25/07/46306953/emerging-markets-etfs-inflows-iemg-vwo-2025">Wall Street Is On Fire—So Why Is This Wall Of Cash Moving Abroad?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock



<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/25/07/46306953/emerging-markets-etfs-inflows-iemg-vwo-2025"> </a>

Specialty ETFs

AVAV

AXON

KTOS

Forget Tech—Trump Just Made Defense The Hottest Trade On Wall Street

Tech's<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech"> Big Three </a>just hit a mind-bending milestone: Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) are now worth a combined $10.87 trillion &#8211; more than triple their $3.49 trillion combined value just five years ago.



Together, they now account for roughly one-quarter of the S&amp;P 500. The question echoing through Wall Street: Is this the top, or just a rest stop?



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46262055/greed-mode-on-why-tesla-nvidia-palantir-and-bitcoin-plays-could-rip">Greed Mode On: Why Tesla, Nvidia, Palantir And Bitcoin Plays Could Rip</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Three Giants, Three Very Different Growth Stories</h2>



Nvidia is the undeniable rocket. With revenue up over 70% year-over-year (as of the last reported <a href="https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/NVDA/income-statement">quarter</a>) and margins expanding alongside AI demand, it has grown into a profit machine almost overnight. A forward P/E around 38, per <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0710">Benzinga Pro</a>, may sound steep until you see that earnings are expected to double again. It's pricey, but with growth like this, bulls still say it's justified.



Microsoft is the quiet killer. Its Azure cloud engine continues to hum, with double-digit top-line growth (13%+ as of the last reported quarter) and margins exceeding 40%. Its forward P/E sits around 33, which may look tame next to Nvidia. Microsoft's balance sheet is pristine, its capital return program generous, and it is embedding AI across its software empire without the volatility.



Then there's Apple. Still wildly profitable (operating profits around 30% consistently), still buying back shares like clockwork—but growth has stalled. iPhone sales are slowing, and while services revenue is strong, it&#8217;s not enough to reignite major earnings momentum. With a P/E over 27 and no breakout product in sight, Apple looks more like a luxury defensive play than a growth engine.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Peak Tech—Or Just Tech's Peak Trio?</h2>



Are we in bubble territory? Not necessarily. 



But these three stocks alone have added over $7 trillion in value since 2019, without a crash or correction in sight. Investors should ask: Is the next leg higher driven by real growth, or just momentum?



For now, the crown stays on—but it may be getting heavy.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46315651/nvidia-broadcom-avgo-stock-ai">Nvidia Is The Star―But Broadcom Is The AI Boom&#8217;s Best-Kept Secret</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

AAPL

MSFT

Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple Smash $10 Trillion—Is This Peak Tech?

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) shares rose in premarket trading Thursday after the Atlanta-based carrier posted stronger-than-expected <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/07/n46338489/delta-air-lines-announces-june-quarter-2025-financial-results" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">second-quarter results</a> and reinstated its full-year 2025 guidance.



Operating revenue for the quarter was $16.65 billion, flat from a year ago but above the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings">consensus estimate</a> of $16.18 billion. Adjusted operating revenue rose 1% year over year to $15.51 billion.



Delta credited its June-quarter revenue, a 1% year-over-year increase, to continued strength in high-margin segments. Premium cabin sales rose 5%, loyalty revenue climbed 8%, American Express (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXP#NYSE">AXP</a>) remuneration increased 10% to $2 billion, while adjusted unit revenue declined 3% amid 4% capacity growth.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst-color/25/07/46204250/airline-stocks-face-flat-q2-but-1-thing-could-lift-them" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Airline Stocks Face Flat Q2—But 1 Thing Could Lift Them</a>



Adjusted earnings per share were $2.10, down 11% from the year-ago period but topping expectations of $2.05. The airline&#8217;s adjusted average fuel price fell to $2.26 per gallon, compared with $2.64 last year.



Passenger revenue surged 26% to $13.88 billion, while cargo revenue rose 7% to $212 million. Other revenue declined 2% to $2.57 billion.



Delta reported adjusted operating income of $2.05 billion, down from $2.27 billion a year earlier. Adjusted operating margin narrowed to 13.2% from 14.7%.



Adjusted operating cash flow totaled $1.84 billion, a 25% decline year over year, while free cash flow stood at $733 million.



As of the end of the June quarter, Delta reported adjusted net debt of $16.32 billion, down $1.7 billion from the end of 2024. Total liquidity was $6.4 billion, including $3.1 billion in undrawn revolver capacity.



The passenger load factor declined to 86% from 87% a year ago. Air traffic liability stood at $8.9 billion.



During the quarter, Delta announced new or expanded partnerships with WestJet, LATAM, IndiGo, and Virgin Atlantic, strengthening its global network and international connectivity.



&#8220;As we look to the second half of our centennial year, we remain focused on executing our strategic priorities and managing the levers within our control to deliver strong earnings and cash flow.&nbsp; Reflecting our confidence in the business, we are restoring financial&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;with an expectation for earnings per share of&nbsp;$5.25&nbsp;to&nbsp;$6.25&nbsp;and free cash flow of&nbsp;$3&nbsp;to&nbsp;$4 billion, consistent with our long-term free cash flow targets,&#8221; commented Ed Bastian, Delta&#8217;s chief executive officer.



Delta President Glen Hauenstein noted, &#8220;Through the quarter, demand trends stabilized at levels that are flat to last year and we continued to see resilience in our diverse, high-margin revenue streams.&#8221;



In June, DAL <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/06/n46013647/delta-air-lines-declares-quarterly-dividend" rel="noreferrer noopener">announced</a> a 25% increase to its quarterly dividend, raising it to $0.1875 per share. The payout is set for Aug. 21 to shareholders of record as of July 31.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">2025 Outlook</h2>



Delta reinstated its full-year 2025 guidance, projecting earnings per share of $5.25 to $6.25, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.42. The airline also expects free cash flow of $3 billion to $4 billion.



&#8220;For the September quarter, we expect total revenue to be flat to up 4% compared to the prior year, with unit revenue trends expected to improve through the second half of the year as we continue to adjust capacity and the industry further rationalizes supply,&#8221; commented Glen Hauenstein, Delta&#8217;s president.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Third-Quarter 2025 Outlook</h2>



Delta forecasts total revenue to rise 0% to 4% year over year, with an operating margin between 9% and 11%. Adjusted earnings per share are projected to range from $1.25 to $1.75, versus a consensus estimate of $1.34.



Delta expects the September quarter to deliver its strongest non-fuel unit cost performance of the year, with costs projected to remain flat or decline slightly compared to 2024.



Price Action: DAL shares were trading higher by 12.03% to $56.76 premarket at last check Thursday.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46336395/senate-confirms-trump-pick-bryan-bedford-as-faa-chief-even-as-chuck-schumer-warns-he-will-prioritize-profits-over-passenger-safety" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Senate Confirms Trump Pick Bryan Bedford As FAA Chief Even As Chuck Schumer Warns He Will Prioritize &#8216;Profits Over Passenger Safety&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Photo by Angel DiBilio via Shutterstock

Earnings

Guidance

Delta Air Lines CEO Confident In Stronger 2025 As Demand Holds Steady

Benzinga readers think Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) CEO Elon Musk should focus on his companies instead of launching a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46210411/musk-third-party-odds-hit-47-can-the-tesla-chief-do-what-no-one-has-since-1853">new political party.</a>



What Happened: Musk is considering launching <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46265725/elon-musk-announces-formation-of-america-party-emerges-in-wake-of-donald-trumps-historic-spending-bill">the America Party, </a>which could provide a third-party option in races for House of Representatives and Senate seats in the 2026 midterms and could even provide a challenge in the 2028 presidential election to the two main parties.



Musk has become increasingly involved in politics in recent years, making large donations to support Donald Trump&#8216;s 2024 presidential campaign and securing a role in the White House&#8217;s Department of Government Efficiency earlier this year.



Benzinga recently asked readers if this should be Musk's focus going forward.



"Elon Musk is wading deeper into politics. Should he stay focused on Tesla and SpaceX — or keep speaking out?" Benzinga asked



The results were:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Stay focused on his companies: 74%</li>



<li>Do both – he can multitask: 21%</li>



<li>Keep speaking out: 5%</li>
</ul>



A large majority of readers polled said Musk should stay focused on his companies. Musk is the CEO of Tesla and SpaceX and is also involved with several other companies, including Neuralink and X. With the recent announcement that X CEO Linda Yaccarino <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/social-media/25/07/46329375/x-ceo-yaccarino-splits-with-elon-musk-after-two-years-says-best-is-yet-to-come-for-social-platform" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is stepping down,</a> Musk&#8217;s time commitment to the social media platform may increase.



Are you buying when the CEOs of the Magnificent 7 are selling?



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Stay in the know with our Insider Trades page — <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/sec/insider-trades/">see when leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Jensen Huang are offloading their own shares.</a></li>
</ul>



Why It's Important: Musk is the wealthiest person in the world and has a considerable influence as the most followed person on X. His push into politics could change the future of the current two-party system in America, but also could take time away from other key focuses for the billionaire.



Musk has been instrumental in transforming the electric vehicle, clean energy and space sectors for the better, and without his strong commitment to these ideals and the companies involved, technology could face a setback.



Wedbush analyst Dan Ives recently said Tesla's Board needs to "act now" and put rules in place for Musk to manage his time in politics <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46300946/musk-vs-trump-soap-opera-must-end-tesla-analyst-shares-3-key-steps">and at Tesla.</a>



&#8220;Tesla is heading into one of the most important stages of its growth cycle with the autonomous and robotics future now on the doorstep and cannot have Musk spending more and more time creating a political party which will require countless time, energy, and political capital,&#8221; Ives said, adding that this &#8220;soap opera must end.&#8221;



Ives said Tesla investors want Musk to remain as CEO for at least five more years and to focus on the company's autonomous and robotics future. The analyst called Nvidia and Tesla the best physical AI companies in the world, with autonomous vehicles worth around a $1 trillion potential in Tesla's valuation.



TSLA Price Action: Tesla stock closed at $295.88 on Wednesday versus a 52-week trading range of $182.00 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 22% year-to-date in 2025 and could fall further if Musk spends more time away from the EV giant.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46285761/can-elon-musk-run-for-president-or-even-be-speaker-of-the-house">Can Elon Musk Run For President — Or Even Be Speaker Of The House?</a></li>
</ul>



The study was conducted by Benzinga from July 7, 2025, through July 8, 2025. It included the responses of a diverse population of adults 18 or older. Opting into the survey was completely voluntary, with no incentives offered to potential respondents. The study reflects results from 55 adults.



Photo: Shutterstock

Politics

TSLA

Musk's Politics Or Tesla's Future? 74% Say The Choice Is Clear

U.S. stock futures declined on Thursday after ending higher on Wednesday. Futures of major benchmark indices were trading lower.



President Donald Trump imposed<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/07/46334793/trump-sends-lula-a-letter-imposing-50-tariffs-calls-bolsonaro-trial-a-witch-hunt-brazils-president-hits-back-will-not-accept-any-form-of-tutelage"> 50% tariffs on Brazil</a>, escalating the trade tensions between the two nations. This was followed by a slew of letters posted on his Truth Social account to Japan, South Korea, and other countries, with a deadline of making a deal by Aug. 1.



Trump also urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 3%, while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46336115/as-trump-calls-for-3-percentage-point-rate-cut-too-late-jerome-powell-to-resign-june-fed-minutes-sh">June&#8217;s Fed minutes</a> were awash with words &#8220;uncertain&#8221; and &#8220;uncertainty,&#8221; over the tariffs.



The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.35% and the two-year bond was at 3.85%. The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool&#8217;s</a> projections show markets pricing a 93.3% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its July meeting.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>-0.23%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.17%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.16%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.15%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was down 0.13% at $623.24, while the QQQ declined 0.086% to $555.77, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From Last Session:



Information technology, utilities, and communication services stocks led the gains on Wednesday, driving U.S. stocks higher.



Investors largely overlooked fresh trade uncertainty, encouraged by the White House&#8217;s delay of new tariffs to Aug. 1st and renewed hopes for negotiations.



In contrast, energy and consumer staples stocks bucked the broader market trend, ending the session in the red.



Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) once again dominated headlines, reaching a staggering <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/market-summary/25/07/46328569/wall-street-today-tariffs-nvidia-4-trillion">$4 trillion market capitalization</a> and cementing its position as the world&#8217;s most valuable company. It plans to introduce a new AI chip specifically for the Chinese market as early as September.



On the economic data front, U.S. wholesale inventories saw a 0.3% month-over-month decline in May, falling to $905.5 billion, which was consistent with preliminary estimates and followed a 0.1% increase in the prior month.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.94%</td><td>20,611.34</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.61%</td><td>6,263.26</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.49%</td><td>44,458.30</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>1.07%</td><td>2,252.49</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts:



The senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo, Scott Wren, highlighted that the resurfaced tariff negotiations after a 90-day pause have again started to impact global stock and bond markets.



He said that &#8220;Some potentially serious trade frictions were just around the corner, ready to rear their ugly heads and impact global stock and bond markets.&#8221;



Wren highlighted that the first 90-day pause of largely reciprocal tariffs with a number of important trading partners was due to expire today, July 9. But as the financial markets woke up and got ready to go on Monday morning, the headlines hit the newswires that the pause was being pushed back to Aug. 1, and letters were going out to various trading partners encouraging them to come to an agreement with the U.S. by this new date.



&#8220;The upcoming expiration of the 90-day tariff pause on Aug. 12 with China are just a big reminder that we are still in the early stages of hammering out what U.S. trade relationships with our largest global trade partners will be,&#8221; he said.



Granted, the magnitude of implementation has been uneven and inconsistent in recent months, Wren said that &#8220;U.S. consumers have yet to see the full effect of tariffs at this point.&#8221;



&#8220;Consumers are in many cases buying goods that were inventoried by sellers prior to the application of tariffs. Once those inventories are depleted and are replaced with goods that are subject to tariffs, we would expect to see goods inflation increase into the end of this year and in the early months of 2026,&#8221; he said.



Wren added that &#8220;Rising inflation is likely to increase market worries as market consensus calls for two rate cuts in 2025.&#8221;



Meanwhile, talking about inflation, Louis Navellier of Navellier &amp; Associates stated that &#8220;I am expecting favorable inflation reports and for retail sales to have picked up a bit from May's slow pace.&#8221;



&#8220;Economic activity appears to be picking up, so both business and consumer sentiment should be rising,&#8221; he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures</a> 



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Thursday:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Initial jobless claims data for the week ended July 5 will all be out by 8:30 a.m. ET.</li>



<li>St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem will speak at 10:00 a.m., and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak at 2:30 p.m. ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) rose 0.71% in premarket on Thursday after scaling a record market capitalization of over $4 trillion on Wednesday.</li>



<li>WK Kellogg Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KLG#NYSE">KLG</a>) zoomed 52.86% on a report that Ferrero is nearing an agreement to buy the breakfast food company for about $3 billion.</li>



<li>Klotho Neurosciences Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KLTO#NASDAQ">KLTO</a>) surged 54.74% as the company was granted FDA Orphan Drug designation for KLTO-202 for the treatment of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.</li>



<li>Creative Medical Technology Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CELZ#NASDAQ">CELZ</a>) tumbled 27% as it received a notice of allowance for a U.S. patent titled "Treatment Of Heart Failure And/Or Post Infarct Pathological Remodeling By Ex Vivo Reprogrammed Immune Cells."</li>



<li>Methode Electronics Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MEI#NYSE">MEI</a>) dropped 14.29% after the company reported a fourth-quarter adjusted EPS miss.</li>



<li>AZZ Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZZ#NYSE">AZZ</a>) was 0.60% higher after posting better-than-expected earnings for its first quarter, while sales missed estimates. The company raised its FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance from $5.50-$6.10 to $5.75-$6.25.</li>



<li>Kraft Heinz Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KHC#NASDAQ">KHC</a>) was up 0.53% after it agreed to sell its infant and specialty food business in Italy to NewPrinces S.p.A.</li>



<li>Conagra Brands Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAG#NYSE">CAG</a>) was up 0.79% as analysts expect it to report earnings of 58 cents per share on revenue of $2.83 billion before the opening bell.</li>



<li>Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) was 0.24% lower as it is expected to report earnings before the market opens. Analysts estimate earnings of $2.05 per share on revenue of $15.45 billion.</li>



<li>Helen of Troy Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HELE#NASDAQ">HELE</a>) advanced 1.29% as analysts expect it to report earnings of 90 cents per share on revenue of $398.20 million before the opening bell.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold, And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.53% to hover around $68.01 per barrel.



Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.35% to hover around $3,325.28 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was lower by 0.16% at the 97.3950 level.



Asian markets ended mostly higher on Thursday, except India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex and Japan's Nikkei 225 indices. Meanwhile, South Korea's Kospi, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, Australia's ASX 200, and China&#8217;s CSI 300 indices rose. European markets were higher in early trade.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46336115/as-trump-calls-for-3-percentage-point-rate-cut-too-late-jerome-powell-to-resign-june-fed-minutes-sh">As Trump Calls For 3-Percentage Point Rate Cut, &#8216;Too Late&#8217; Jerome Powell To Resign, June Fed Minutes Show &#8216;Uncertainty&#8217; Reigns Supreme</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: godongphoto / Shutterstock.com

CELZ

HELE

KLTO

US Stocks Likely To Open Lower A Day After Nasdaq Hits Record High: Nvidia, Kellogg, Klotho In Focus

Analysts from LightShed Partners have suggested that&nbsp;Apple Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) should consider a change in leadership to prioritize product innovation, particularly in the rapidly growing field of artificial intelligence (AI).



What Happened: In a note on Wednesday, the LightShed analysts proposed that Apple might benefit from a new CEO, as reported by&nbsp;<a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-apple-replace-tim-cook-as-ceo-these-analysts-want-a-dramatic-change-d1e067dd">MarketWatch</a>. The suggestion comes in the wake of the impending departure of Apple&#8217;s Chief Operating Officer, Jeff Williams.



Check out the current price of <a href="https://benzinga.com/quote/aapl" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">AAPL stock here</a>.



The analysts acknowledge Cook&#8217;s operational expertise but argue that Apple now needs a leader who is more focused on product development. The company &#8220;needs a product-focused CEO,&#8221;&nbsp;states analysts.



They also express doubts about Apple&#8217;s ability to achieve a &#8220;supercycle&#8221; of upgrades and note the company&#8217;s struggles&nbsp;to keep pace in the&nbsp;field of artificial intelligence.



They warned, &#8220;AI&nbsp;will reshape industries across the&nbsp;global economy, and Apple risks&nbsp;becoming one of its casualties.&#8221;



According to Piecyk and Galone, Apple&#8217;s recent attempts to enhance its Siri personal assistant have been disappointing. They also caution that Apple&#8217;s failure to keep up with the AI race could significantly impact the company&#8217;s long-term growth potential.



SEE ALSO:&nbsp;<a href="https://benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46309766/most-crypto-apps-assume-youre-online-this-one-works-where-the-internet-doesnt" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Blockchain Beyond The Smartphone: How This One Reaches The Unconnected &#8211; Benzinga</a>



Why It Matters: This call for a change in Apple&#8217;s leadership follows a series of significant developments within the company. Just a day before the analysts&#8217; note, Apple announced the upcoming retirement of its COO,&nbsp;Jeff Williams, who was once&nbsp;tipped as a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46311533/jeff-williams-once-tipped-as-tim-cooks-successor-to-retire-from-apple">potential successor</a>&nbsp;to Tim Cook. 



This news came amid criticism from the White House trade advisor,&nbsp;Peter Navarro, who <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46313502/peter-navarro-slams-apple-ceo-tim-cook-over-slow-production-shift-out-of-china-despite-buying-time-since-trumps-first-term-longest-running-soap-opera-in-silicon-valley">expressed dissatisfaction</a> with Cook&#8217;s&nbsp;reluctance to move Apple&#8217;s production&nbsp;out of China.



These events have sparked discussions about Apple&#8217;s future, with some industry experts, like&nbsp;Dan Ives, urging the company to make strategic moves, such as acquiring&nbsp;Perplexity AI for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46216283/dan-ives-urges-apple-to-make-a-move-saying-that-perplexity-acquisition-is-a-no-brainer-its-a-matter-of-when-and-not-if">its search engine</a>. Amid these debates, the suggestion for a new CEO adds another layer to the ongoing discussions about Apple&#8217;s direction and leadership.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="768" height="153" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10041352/image-109.png" alt="" class="wp-image-979608" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10041352/image-109.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10041352/image-109-300x60.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 768px) 100vw, 768px" /></figure>



Apple offers poor Momentum and Value, while scoring well on the Quality metric as per <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Benzinga's Proprietary Edge Rankings.&nbsp;</a>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46336365/apples-data-center-chief-joins-openai-as-sam-altman-jony-ive-team-up-in-6-4-billion-io-deal">Apple&#8217;s Data Center Chief Joins OpenAI As Sam Altman, Jony Ive Team Up In $6.4 Billion &#8216;io&#8217; Deal</a> </li>
</ul>



Image via Shutterstock



Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Apple Needs 'Product-Focused CEO,' Say Analysts As Tim Cook Faces Heat Over AI Failures And Innovation Slump

As the minutes of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s June meeting were released on Wednesday, the word &#8220;uncertainty&#8221; reigned supreme amid the ongoing tariff turmoil and President Donald Trump&#8216;s call to cut rates by 3 percentage points.



What Happened: The words &#8220;uncertain&#8221; and &#8220;uncertainty&#8221; appeared 28 times in the June 17-18 meeting minutes, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned the two words 19 times, as highlighted by Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research.



&#8220;Most of the uncertainty faced by Fed officials has to do with Trump&#8217;s Tariff Turmoil (TTT). Collectively, they are leaning toward lowering the federal funds rate. But they are in no hurry to do so since they are worried that TTT might still boost inflation,&#8221; he said.



Meanwhile, the chief economist at LPL Financial, Jeffrey Roach, said that the key takeaways from the Federal Open Market Committee&#8217;s June 18 policy meeting suggested &#8220;The FOMC is comfortable remaining in wait-and-see mode. Despite headwinds, the economy continues to trudge along, giving policymakers time to assess the projected impact from tariffs.&#8221;



This comes amid Trump&#8217;s call for slashing the interest rates by 3%, highlighting that Powell was "Too Late" and it &#8220;is costing the U.S. 360 Billion Dollars a Point, PER YEAR, in refinancing costs.&#8221;



<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><a href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114823635614745836"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="678" height="205" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10020019/Trump-truth-social-fed.png" alt="" class="wp-image-979391" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10020019/Trump-truth-social-fed.png 678w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/10020019/Trump-truth-social-fed-300x91.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 678px) 100vw, 678px" /></a></figure>



Trump has hinted at announcing Powell&#8217;s replacement and called for his <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46237506/trump-says-jerome-powell-should-resign-immediately-after-fhfa-director-alleges-fed-chair-lied-about-2-5-billion-renovation-plan">resignation</a> on multiple occasions because of the Fed&#8217;s &#8220;wait-and-see&#8221; stance.



On Wednesday, Trump also imposed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/07/46334793/trump-sends-lula-a-letter-imposing-50-tariffs-calls-bolsonaro-trial-a-witch-hunt-brazils-president-hits-back-will-not-accept-any-form-of-tutelage">50% tariffs on Brazil</a>, escalating the trade tensions between the two nations. This was followed by a slew of letters posted on his Truth Social account to Japan, South Korea and other countries, with a deadline of making a deal by Aug. 1.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46313514/warren-buffetts-quiet-dividend-play-9-high-yield-stocks-held-by-a-berkshire-subsidiary">Warren Buffett&#8217;s Quiet Dividend Play: 9 High-Yield Stocks Held By A Berkshire Subsidiary</a>



Why It Matters: According to the Fed Minutes takeaways, the FOMC members were also concerned about stagflation risks if inflation proved persistent while employment weakened.



&#8220;Surprisingly, members thought the uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased. Yet, committee members wanted to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy,&#8221; said Roach.



The FOMC members also acknowledged that lower and moderate-income households were switching to lower-cost items, and these households could be disproportionately affected by tariff-related price increases.



Roach added that at LPL, they expect next week's inflation data to show a reacceleration, giving the Fed more reason to keep rates elevated. &#8220;We don't expect inflation readings will improve until later this year,&#8221; he added.



Price Action: U.S. stocks climbed Wednesday, buoyed by Nvidia Corp.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) shares soaring to an unprecedented $4 trillion market capitalization and a fresh all-time high, pushing the Nasdaq to close at a record high.



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, ended higher on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.60% at $624.06, while the QQQ advanced 0.71% to $556.25, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/hedge-funds/25/07/46290114/bill-ackman-bets-over-60-of-pershing-squares-portfolio-in-these-4-stocks-uber-hhh-and-more">Bill Ackman Bets Over 60% Of Pershing Square&#8217;s Portfolio In These 4 Stocks: UBER, HHH And More</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Domenico Fornas / Shutterstock.com

Economics

As Trump Calls For 3-Percentage Point Rate Cut, 'Too Late' Jerome Powell To Resign, June Fed Minutes Show 'Uncertainty' Reigns Supreme

The CNN Money Fear and Greed index showed some improvement in the overall market sentiment, while the index moved to the &#8220;Extreme Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday.



U.S. stocks settled higher on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones index gaining more than 200 points during the session as investors shrugged off fresh trade uncertainty after the White House delayed the start of new tariffs to Aug. 1, raising hopes for new rounds of negotiations.



Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) grabbed headlines once again, with its market capitalization hitting $4 trillion, solidifying its lead as the world&#8217;s most valuable company. According to the Financial Times, Nvidia is planning to launch a new AI chip designed specifically for China as soon as September.



On the economic data front, U.S. wholesale inventories declined by 0.3% month-over-month to $905.5 billion in May in line with the preliminary estimate and compared to a 0.1% increase in the previous month.



Most sectors on the S&amp;P 500 closed on a positive note, with information technology, utilities and communication services stocks recording the biggest gains on Wednesday. However, energy and consumer staples stocks bucked the overall market trend, closing the session lower.



The Dow Jones closed higher by 218 points to 44,458.30 on Wednesday. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.61% to 6,263.26, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.94% to 20,611.34 during Wednesday's session.



Investors are awaiting earnings results from Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAG#NYSE">CAG</a>), Delta Air Lines Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) and Helen of Troy Limited (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HELE#NASDAQ">HELE</a>) today.



What is CNN Business Fear &amp; Greed Index?



At a current reading of 75, the index moved to the &#8220;Extreme Greed&#8221; zone on Wednesday, versus a prior reading of 74.



The Fear &amp; Greed Index is a measure of the current market sentiment. It is based on the premise that higher fear exerts pressure on stock prices, while higher greed has the opposite effect. The index is calculated based on seven equal-weighted indicators. The index ranges from 0 to 100, where 0 represents maximum fear and 100 signals maximum greediness.



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/25/07/46316741/top-3-risk-off-stocks-that-may-rocket-higher-in-q3">Top 3 Risk Off Stocks That May Rocket Higher In Q3</a> </li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Pre-Market Outlook

S&P 500 Surges Amid Rise In Nvidia Shares: Investor Sentiment Improves, Fear & Greed Index Moves To 'Extreme Greed' Zone

Leading cryptocurrencies rallied on Wednesday&nbsp;on soaring institutional interest, Nvidia Corp.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) $4 trillion push.



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 9:05 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)</td><td>+1.83%</td><td>$110,964.87</td></tr><tr><td>Ethereum (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/eth/usd">ETH</a>) &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+5.53%</td><td>$2,758.68</td></tr><tr><td>Dogecoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/doge/usd">DOGE</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+4.84%</td><td>$0.1790</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



What Happened: Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $112,000 late afternoon before easing to the early $111,000s overnight. The apex cryptocurrency's trading volume rose by over 38% in the last 24 hours.



Institutional appetite grew, with Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recording more than $75 million in net inflows as of July 9, <a href="https://sosovalue.com/assets/etf/Total_Crypto_Spot_ETF_Fund_Flow?page=usBTC">according </a>to SoSo Value.



Ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency, raced to an intraday high of $2,794, with trading volume surging by 68%.



The rally wiped out nearly $448 million in bearish shorts over the last 24 hours.



Bitcoin's open interest jumped 6.46% in the last 24 hours, signaling high speculative interest in the leading digital asset.&nbsp;



The "Greed" sentiment strengthened in the market, according to the Crypto Fear &amp; Greed Index.



Top Gainers (24 Hours)



<figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Cryptocurrency</th><th>Gains +/-</th><th>Price (Recorded at 9:05 p.m. ET)</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>dogwifhat (WIF)</td><td>+12.08%</td><td>$0.9453</td></tr><tr><td>SPX6900 (SPX)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+10.98%</td><td>$1.51</td></tr><tr><td>Stellar (XLM)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td><td>+9.95%</td><td>$0.2858 </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The global cryptocurrency market capitalization surged to $3.46 trillion, following a 2.58% jump in the last 24 hours.



Stocks rallied on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked 217.54 points, or 0.49%, to end at 44,458.30. The S&amp;P 500 rose 0.61% to end at 6,263.26. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.95% to close at a record high of 20,611.34.



Artificial intelligence darling Nvidia spurred the rally, closing 1.77% higher and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/07/46321541/nvidia-hits-4-trillion-market-cap-stock-surges-to-all-time-high">exceeding the historic $4 trillion market capitalization milestone</a>.



See More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/best-crypto-scanners">Best Cryptocurrency Scanners</a>



Analyst Notes: Blockchain analytics firm Santiment stated that Bitcoin's breakout followed panic selling by retailers who were dropping out due to "boredom or disbelief."



"History has shown that this is a prime sign of a potential breakout, as crypto markets typically move the opposite direction of the crowd&#8217;s expectations," Santiment remarked.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">&#x1f973; Bitcoin has officially made a new all-time high, achieving a market value of $112,152 just 30 minutes ago. Unsurprisingly, many retailers had been dropping out due to boredom or disbelief over the past few days. &#x1f433; History has shown that this is a prime sign of a potential… <a href="https://t.co/r1IQWqZcG3">pic.twitter.com/r1IQWqZcG3</a>&mdash; Santiment (@santimentfeed) <a href="https://twitter.com/santimentfeed/status/1943043967903224239?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Seasoned trader Peter Brandt spotted an expanding inverted triangle pattern in Bitcoin's daily price movement, suggesting a higher risk of "mortality" or pattern failure.



An inverted triangle pattern, or descending triangle, is a bearish chart formation characterized by a horizontal support line and a descending resistance line.



"Nevertheless, I am long BTC. A decline below $107,000 would suggest morphology," he added.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">There is nothing special about this chart. An expanding inverted triangle has a higher rate of morphing or mortality than a pattern such a horizontal pennant. Nevertheless I am long BTC. A decline below 107000 would suggest morphology <a href="https://twitter.com/search?q=%24BTC&amp;src=ctag&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">$BTC</a> <a href="https://t.co/TsfmT4mQud">pic.twitter.com/TsfmT4mQud</a>&mdash; Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1943085280363209130?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Photo: Antonio Gravante On Shutterstock.com



Read Next:&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/crypto/cryptocurrency/25/07/46317095/bitcoin-miners-rake-in-55k-daily-despite-heat-driven-hashrate-dip-heres-their-secret">Bitcoin Miners Rake In $55K Daily Despite Heat-Driven Hashrate Dip — Here&#8217;s Their Secret</a></li>
</ul>



<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li></li>
</ol>

Markets

$DOGE

$ETH

Bitcoin Breaks $112,000, Ethereum, Dogecoin Surge Amid Growing Institutional Interest, Nvidia-Driven Tech Rally: Experienced Trader Peter Brandt Says, 'I Am Long BTC'

Tensions are flaring between the United States and Brazil following President Donald Trump&#8217;s threats of sweeping 50% tariffs on imports from the South American nation. 



What Happened: On Wednesday, Trump wrote a letter telling Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva that the trial of former President Jair Bolsonaro was &#8220;a Witch Hunt that should end IMMEDIATELY,&#8221; while accusing the nation of &#8220;insidious attacks on Free Elections,&#8221; which prompted the punitive trade measure. 



The letter further accused Brazil's Supreme Court of issuing &#8220;hundreds of SECRET and UNLAWFUL Censorship Orders to U.S. Social Media platforms,&#8221; threatening free speech and violating trade norms.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46313013/trumps-tariff-letters-spark-high-level-of-uncertainity-and-volatility-says-economist-mohamed-el-erian">Trump&#8217;s Tariff Letters Spark &#8216;High Level Of Uncertainity And Volatility,&#8217; Says Economist Mohamed El-Erian</a>



Trump also argues that Brazil's trade practices have resulted in &#8220;unsustainable Trade Deficits against the United States,&#8221; calling it a major threat to the economy, as well as national security.



As a result, Trump says in the letter that, effective August 1, all Brazilian goods would face a 50% tariff, with additional duties on goods routed through third countries. He also ordered the U.S. Trade Representative to launch a Section 301 investigation into Brazil's digital trade practices and market access barriers.



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="680" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09214231/Screenshot-2025-07-10-at-7.12.17-AM-1024x680.png" alt="" class="wp-image-979115" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09214231/Screenshot-2025-07-10-at-7.12.17-AM-1024x680.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09214231/Screenshot-2025-07-10-at-7.12.17-AM-300x199.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09214231/Screenshot-2025-07-10-at-7.12.17-AM-768x510.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09214231/Screenshot-2025-07-10-at-7.12.17-AM.png 1186w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



Screenshot from Donald Trump&#8217;s Truth Social Account



Lula has since pushed back, stating that his country &#8220;will not accept any form of tutelage&#8221; and defended the ongoing legal proceedings against Bolsonaro as a matter of judicial sovereignty.



Defending Brazil's regulatory actions, Lula says that &#8220;Brazilian society rejects hateful content, racism, child pornography, scams, fraud, and speeches against human rights and democratic freedom.&#8221; He also adds that &#8220;freedom of expression must not be confused with aggression or violent practices.&#8221;



He also challenged Trump&#8217;s claims on trade, stating that &#8220;Statistics from the U.S. government itself show a surplus of $410 billion in the trade of goods and services with Brazil over the past 15 years.&#8221; He says, any unilateral tariff hikes &#8220;will be addressed in accordance with Brazil's Economic Reciprocity Law.&#8221;



Lula concluded by establishing &#8220;sovereignty, respect, and the unwavering defense of the interests of the Brazilian people&#8221; as what guides his nation&#8217;s relationship with the world.



<figure class="wp-block-embed aligncenter is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">In light of the public statement made by U.S. President Donald Trump on social media on the afternoon of Wednesday (9), it is important to highlight the following: Brazil is a sovereign nation with independent institutions and will not accept any form of tutelage. The judicial…&mdash; Lula (@LulaOficial) <a href="https://twitter.com/LulaOficial/status/1943094466903957505?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 9, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Why It Matters: This comes just days after Trump threatened an &#8220;additional 10% tariff&#8221; on any country <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46267477/trump-threatens-10-additional-tariff-on-all-brics-aligned-nations-says-tariff-letters-drop-at-noon-monday">that aligns itself</a> with the BRICS, an intergovernmental organization of which Brazil is one of the founding members. 



Former Trump ally, Elon Musk and his social media platform, X, have repeatedly tangled with Brazil&#8217;s top court in recent years. Last year, a judge called for an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40664929/brazil-judge-bans-x-after-months-long-feud-threatens-fines-of-nearly-9k-per-day-on-users-who-try-to">outright ban on X</a>, threatening daily fines for anyone who tried to circumvent the order.



The court then gave Musk 24 hours to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40623911/brazilian-supreme-court-tells-elon-musk-to-appoint-legal-representative-for-x-in-24-hours-or-face-su">appoint a legal representative</a> in Brazil or face a nationwide suspension of X, following the latter&#8217;s defiance of an earlier court order. 



Early this year, X was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/02/43872696/elon-musks-x-hit-with-1-42-million-fine-from-brazil-judge-he-once-labeled-dictator">hit by a $1.42 million fine</a> by the nation&#8217;s Supreme Court for not complying with judicial orders, by Justice&nbsp;Alexandre de Moraes, who Musk had labelled a &#8220;dictator.&#8221;



Photo Courtesy: Joey Sussman on Shutterstock.com



Read More: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46267477/trump-threatens-10-additional-tariff-on-all-brics-aligned-nations-says-tariff-letters-drop-at-noon-monday">Copper Rallies To Record Highs After Trump&#8217;s 50% Tariff Bombshell: What&#8217;s Moving Markets Tuesday?</a></li>
</ul>

Latin America

Macro Economic Events

Global

Trump Sends Lula A Letter Imposing 50% Tariffs, Calls Bolsonaro Trial A 'Witch Hunt' — Brazil's President Hits Back: 'Will Not Accept Any Form Of Tutelage'

On Wednesday, the Cathie Wood-led Ark Invest made a significant move by purchasing a substantial number of shares in Tempus AI Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TEM#NASDAQ">TEM</a>) and selling shares of Block Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XYZ#NYSE">XYZ</a>). The trades were executed through the ARKG and ARKK ETFs.



The Tempus AI Trade saw Ark Invest acquiring a combined total of 150,563 shares of Tempus across ARK Genomic Revolution ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKG#BATS">ARKG</a>) and ARK Innovation ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARKK#BATS">ARKK</a>). The ARKG ETF added 19,582 shares, while the ARKK ETF purchased 130,981 shares. Tempus AI&#8217;s first-quarter financial results were impressive; the company reported revenue of $255.74 million, surpassing the estimated $248.13 million figure. Additionally, Tempus AI&#8217;s adjusted loss per share was narrower than expected, signaling a positive outlook for the AI-focused precision medicine company. The total value of the shares acquired by Ark Invest is $8.8 million based on the stock&#8217;s closing price of $58.41 on Wednesday.



The Block Trade involved Ark Invest selling 96,503 shares of the Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>)-focused company through its ARKK ETF. The trade was valued at $6.6 million. Block shares ended the day at $69.01. Notably, Bitcoin, the apex cryptocurrency, hovered near all-time highs of $111,148.02 at the time of writing.



This decision comes amid recent developments at Block, where CEO Jack Dorsey unveiled a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/25/07/46272105/jack-dorsey-unveils-bitchat-a-decentralized-bluetooth-powered-server-free-messaging-service">new decentralized messaging service</a> called Bitchat. The service, which operates over Bluetooth, represents Block&#8217;s ongoing efforts to innovate and expand its technological offerings.



Other Key Trades:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Sold 5,627 shares of Veeva Systems Inc (VEEV) through the ARKG ETF.</li>



<li>Sold 50,823 shares of Roku Inc (ROKU) through the ARKK ETF.</li>
</ul>



Read Next: 



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/07/46312778/scott-bessent-never-made-time-for-japans-trade-negotiator-says-economist-yet-the-us" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Scott Bessent Never &#8216;Made Time&#8217; For Japan&#8217;s Trade Negotiator, Says Economist, Yet The US Ally Got Hit With Trump Tariffs — How Should Tokyo Make Sense Of This?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo Courtesy: ChrisStock82 on Shutterstock.com



This story was generated using <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro">Benzinga Neuro</a> and edited by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/shivdeep-dhaliwal" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Shivdeep Dhaliwal</a>

ARKG

ARKK

Cathie Wood Dumps Jack Dorsey's Block As Bitcoin Flirts With All-Time Highs, Bets $8.8 million On Tempus AI

Wall Street's biggest banks have rallied hard in 2025, outpacing the S&amp;P 500 with an average 18% year-to-date gain, but as second-quarter earnings roll in starting July 15, analysts warn the easy gain may <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets">already be priced in.</a>



In a note shared Wednesday, Bank of America analyst Ebrahim H. Poonawala said this earnings season may represent a &#8220;breather&#8221; for the group.



While structural tailwinds remain strong, especially for names like Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>) and Wells Fargo &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WFC#NYSE">WFC</a>), the absence of fresh catalysts in the second half could slow the pace of gains unless earnings surprises deliver.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><thead><tr><th>Bank</th><th>YTD return as of July 9, 2025</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) </td><td>22.94%</td></tr><tr><td>Citigroup Inc.</td><td>22.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>)</td><td>13.84</td></tr><tr><td>Wells Fargo &amp; Company</td><td>17.44</td></tr><tr><td>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>)</td><td>19.86</td></tr><tr><td>Bank of America Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>)</td><td>7.83</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">JPMorgan Sets The Bar—But It's Already High</h3>



According to Poonawala, JPMorgan is expected to post earnings per share of $4.48 for the second quarter, slightly above consensus.



 Net interest income is expected at $11.96 billion, up 3.4% quarter over quarter, with FY25 guidance revised higher to $95.2 billion. 



CFO Jeremy Barnum said 2025 net interest income might "end up a little better, maybe by $1 billion," reflecting fewer expected Fed cuts. But with JPMorgan stock already up sharply by 19% year to date, the market is wondering if the near-term upside is limited.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Citi And Wells Fargo: Underdogs With Upside?</h3>



Citigroup could be one of the most interesting stories this quarter. While its second-quarter EPS estimate was trimmed to $1.62 by Bank of America, focus will be on whether its multi-year restructuring plan is finally bearing fruit.



Citigroup's trading revenues, adjusted for a $400 million gain from the sale of Visa shares, are expected to grow more than 17% year over year. The bank reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $83.1 billion to $84.1 billion.



Wells Fargo &amp; Co. is entering its first full quarter without the Fed-imposed asset cap. Second-quarter EPS is estimated at $1.42, with full-year net interest income projected at $48.5 billion, representing 1.1% year-over-year growth.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Capital Markets Slowdown A Drag On Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs?</h3>



Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs face tougher comps. Morgan Stanley's second-quarter EPS was cut to $1.96 due to higher provisions and lower net interest income. Still, the bank is seen as stable, supported by strong equity trading and its high-performing wealth management arm, which contributes around 40% of earnings.



Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, is forecast to post an EPS of $9.74, slightly above the consensus.



Strength in trading (+7% YoY) and improving M&amp;A activity are offsetting weaker asset management results. The bank has a $40 billion buyback program and increased dividends to $4.00 per share, reflecting confidence in future performance.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">BNY Mellon and Northern Trust: M&amp;A Buzz Builds</h3>



M&amp;A chatter is swirling around The Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BK#NYSE">BK</a>) and Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NTRS#NASDAQ">NTRS</a>). BNY's Q2 EPS was raised to $1.80, as deposit strength lifts full-year NII growth to 6.8% year over year. 



Northern Trust is expected to deliver $2.08 in second-quarter EPS, driven by a strong wealth management business (accounting for 50% of profits) and deposit inflows.



Read Next:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/25/07/46306953/emerging-markets-etfs-inflows-iemg-vwo-2025">Wall Street Is On Fire—So Why Is This Wall Of Cash Moving Abroad? </a></li>
</ul>



Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

NTRS

Big Bank Stocks Soared In 2025—But This Earnings Season Could Shake Things Up

Wall Street rose on Wednesday as investors shrugged off fresh trade uncertainty after the White House delayed the start of new tariffs to Aug. 1, raising hopes for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">new rounds of negotiations.</a>



This came just a day after President Donald Trump floated sweeping tariffs, including a 50% tariff on copper and a potential 200% tariff on pharmaceuticals, though the latter may include a grace period.



The Russell 2000 led the charge, rising 0.7% to 2,244, as small-cap stocks continued to rebound. 



The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5%, climbing to 22,815, supported by strength in megacap tech names. Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) grabbed headlines once again, with its market capitalization hitting $4 trillion, solidifying its lead as the world's most valuable company. According to the <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/e496f80f-1789-46b3-9275-a3f54344047e">Financial Times</a>, Nvidia is planning to launch a new AI chip designed specifically for China as soon as September. 



The S&amp;P 500 added 0.4%, trading at 6,250, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average inched 0.3% higher. 



Sector performance was mixed, with utilities outperforming while consumer staples lagged.



In the bond market, Treasury yields fell 5 basis points ahead of a key 10-year auction later in the day. The U.S. dollar index held steady, ahead of the Federal Reserve's minutes from the June FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday afternoon.



Oil prices climbed for a third consecutive session, rising to $69 per barrel, while gold held flat at $3,325. In crypto, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) advanced 0.9% to $109,235, trading just 2.5% below its all-time highs set in May.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h2>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices </td><td>Price</td><td>1-day %</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,244.10</td><td>0.7%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>22,815.57</td><td>0.5%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>6,250.79</td><td>0.4%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>44,388.59</td><td>0.3%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:20 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;Vanguard S&amp;P 500 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VOO#NYSE">VOO</a>) rose 0.4% to $572.28.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) inched 0.3% higher to $443.81.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;rose 0.4% to $554.81.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) rose 0.7% to $222.70.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;Utilities&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) outperformed, up 0.8%; the&nbsp;Consumer Staples&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLP#NYSE">XLP</a>) lagged, down 1%.</li>
</ul>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Wednesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h2>



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Boeing Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BA#NYSE">BA</a>) climbed nearly 5% after delivering 60 aircraft in June, a 27% increase from a year ago. The monthly total included sales to Chinese customers, appearing for the first time in months—a potential sign of recovery for the planemaker.</li>



<li>AES Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AES#NYSE">AES</a>) jumped 17% following a Bloomberg report that the renewable energy company is considering strategic alternatives, including a potential sale, as large investment firms express interest in a takeover.</li>



<li>Verona Pharma (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VRNA#NASDAQ">VRNA</a>) soared 21% to $104.80 after Merck &amp; Co. Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRK#NYSE">MRK</a>) announced a $10 billion deal to acquire the biotech firm, which specializes in treatments for lung diseases.</li>
</ul>



Read Next:



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Photo: Shutterstock

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

VRNA

Nvidia's $4 Trillion Milestone Lifts Wall Street: What's Moving Markets Wednesday?

In just the first few days of July, we've seen more market-shaking headlines than we usually get over the span of a full quarter. Congress <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46255065/trumps-3-3-trillion-bill-passes-will-vulnerable-americans-pay-the-price">officially passed</a> President Trump's ‘Big Beautiful Bill' last week. In response, Elon Musk <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/07/46265725/elon-musk-announces-formation-of-america-party-emerges-in-wake-of-donald-trumps-historic-spending-bill" target="_blank" rel="noopener">launched</a> a new third political party and Trump pushed the expiration of the 90-day tariff freeze to August 1, while announcing a slew of new tariffs.



Meanwhile, gold hit three all-time highs (a triple top), oil is up around 35% from its year-to-date low of $62, and Bitcoin is inching toward new record highs after closing the week at $109,000. 



So today, I want to break down the biggest moves in the market – including a "wildcard" no one's talking about – and why they matter.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Trade This Week's Market Volatility Like A Former Hedge Fund Pro</h2>



Markets are spiking and geopolitical tension is rising, but Chris Capre's Trading Waves system thrives in moments like this. His recent trades hit +87.5% on PANW, +66% on NVDA, and +115% on SOXL using this fast-moving, volatility-focused strategy. Get full access FREE <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/7-day-free-trial-chris-capre-trading-waves/?utm_campaign=7daytrial&amp;utm_adType=sponsorad&amp;utm_ad=RDweb070925">HERE</a> for 7 days and see how to trade this week's market.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Politics, Tariffs And A Fresh Round Of Market Volatility</h2>



President Trump signed his ‘Big Beautiful Bill' (officially called the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act") into law on Friday during a White House Independence Day celebration. It wasn't a surprise, of course – he said he wanted to do just that. What really grabbed attention, though, was the tariff twist. Remember that 90-day freeze on tariffs is set to expire this Thursday? That's been pushed back to August 1 as the administration continues to work on deals.



The markets took the news in stride, at least at first. Stocks opened higher, with tech leading the charge; bond yields dipped as traders priced in the idea that Trump might kick the can down the road again. But don't be fooled, volatility's still in the air because this delay doesn't erase the threat – it just pushes it further out.



And that's not all. 



Elon Musk, who's been one of the loudest critics of Trump's budget bill, filed to launch his own political party, &#8220;America First,&#8221; in response to its passage. Add this to the mix of trade wars and political threats, and the markets are having to price in a fresh round of uncertainty. We saw that on Monday when the Dow dropped more than 300 points to start the day.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold's Seasonal Slide And Oil's Short-Lived Momentum</h2>



SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) hit all-time highs in April, May and June &#8211; a textbook triple top. Now it's started to back off a bit, sitting around 305 as I'm writing. But the trend still looks solid.



We've got a nice gap between the 50- and 200-day moving averages (MAs), so momentum's still there for now. That said, gold tends to trade lower in August. Additionally, volatility has been declining since its last peak, which suggests to me that gold may be losing momentum in a matter of weeks.



Meanwhile, nature's black gold (oil) is surging right now. We've gone from year-to-date (YTD) lows of $62 to YTD highs of around $84. That's a huge move, but there are signs that it's running out of gas. Prices have already pulled back a little, and the seasonal pattern that's been fueling this rally is about to end.



In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see oil completely lose steam – even roll over – by next Friday. So, if you're looking to make a move, keep in mind that the window's closing fast.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tech's Rebound Watchlist And The Mag 7's Turning Point</h2>



The Magnificent (MAG) 7 stocks – Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) – are showing signs of a rebound.



A great example of this is the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#BATS">MAGS</a>), which has just posted a textbook V-shaped recovery, bouncing off its April low of around $39 and climbing back toward its January high of nearly $56.50. Even better? Its chart just showed a bullish golden cross, where the 50-day MA crossed above the 200-day MA &#8211; a strong indication that momentum could be turning.



Now, MAGs are still trailing behind the S&amp;P and Dow – it's the caboose. But if this rally keeps rolling, MAGs could catch up fast, possibly even leapfrogging them to the front of the train. And if the biggest names in tech start firing again, it's a signal the broader market could be setting up for another breakout.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Tesla's Uncertainty Factor And The Risk Beneath The Rally</h2>



The real wildcard of the markets right now? Tesla.



We've seen the stock hit YTD highs near $426 earlier this year, then tank below $221 and then bounce again. This hasn't happened once or twice – it's happened multiple times. At the moment, it's sitting around $295, but a new tweet by Musk could change that in a heartbeat.



Seasonality isn't giving us much to work with right now, either. There's no bullish or bearish edge we can lean on for July or August. Although we saw a bullish crossover recently, I'm not convinced it will hold, given the constant chaos surrounding the stock.



Volatility is low, Fibonacci levels are signaling a bearish trend, and the overall trend is sideways.



But the unknown factor here is Elon himself. His move to launch a third political party is doing more than just rattling headlines – it's stirring sentiment. Shareholders didn't sign up for this kind of drama or political spotlight. And with what seems to be bridges burned on both sides of the aisle, Tesla's getting dragged even deeper into the mess.



That kind of risk is exactly why Tesla is such a wild card in this market. If it breaks lower, it could drag the rest of the Mag 7 with it. And if it stabilizes, it might be the last piece needed for tech to start firing on all cylinders again.



Ultimately, we're looking at the perfect storm of uncertainty and opportunity right now. So, while the headlines can be distracting, remember that the charts and the patterns are where the real story is told.



Editorial content from our expert contributors is intended to be information for the general public and not individualized investment advice. Editors/contributors are presenting their individual opinions and strategies, which are neither expressly nor impliedly approved or endorsed by Benzinga.



Photo: Shutterstock

GOOG

MAGS

3 Big Surprises Just Hit The Markets – Here's How I'm Trading Them

While President Donald Trump ramps up his global tariff campaign, sending warning letters to 14 countries, the U.S. junk bond market is behaving as if <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">none of it matters.</a>



High-yield credit spreads—a closely watched barometer of risk in lower-quality corporate debt—have dropped to 286 basis points over comparable Treasuries, near year-to-date lows. 



That's a sharp retreat from early April, when spreads blew out to over 460 basis points in response to Trump's initial tariff salvo.



Despite new threats targeting key trading partners, credit investors appear convinced that the U.S. economy will weather the trade storm. 



Yet, the composure of high-yield spreads may be dangerously misleading. When credit markets fail to price in macro risks, they create stress no one sees until it&#8217;s too late—and that&#8217;s the time bomb. Should trade tensions lead to macroeconomic turbulence, junk debt could reprice abruptly and violently, sending shockwaves across the whole financial system and fueling the threat of a broader crisis.



&#8220;On the surface, the credit markets appear calm.&nbsp;Credit spreads are low, the demand for these bonds is healthy and default rates overall remain relatively low. Under the hood, however, some stress signals are starting to show,&#8221; said analyst Michael Gayed, CFA in an email comment. 



&#8220;The extra&nbsp;yield&nbsp;investors demand above and beyond the risk-free rate, go back to pre-Liberation Day levels,&#8221; he added.



Chart: Junk Bond Spread Has Completely Wiped Out Tariff-Related Risks



<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-978631" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-768x397.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-1536x794.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/09112306/image-73-1-2048x1059.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Calm Credit Market May Be Overlooking An Economic Fallout</h3>



On prediction platform Kalshi, the probability of a U.S. recession this year sits at just 19%, barely above the 17% low reached in January. On May 1, it had surged to as high as 61%. 



The drop in junk bond spreads suggests markets are pricing in minimal risk of recession, earnings deterioration or funding stress in the corporate sector.



Since April lows, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HYG#NYSE">HYG</a>) has rallied almost 5%, while a broader measure of risk-free 



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/RECSSNBER-25/markets/RECSSNBER-25?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=medium&#038;variant=a&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="488px" height="242px" style="border:0"></iframe>



Earlier this week, the White House sent formal tariff warning letters to 14 countries—mostly in Asia—including Japan and South Korea. Absent bilateral trade deals, those nations face new "reciprocal" tariffs between 25% and 40%, starting Aug. 1.



Trump also warned the European Union that a similar letter would be sent within days, threatening tariffs as high as 200% on pharmaceuticals and 50% on copper imports.



In a note Wednesday, Goldman Sachs economist Elsie Peng said the Trump administration has already implemented a "range of tariff increases at both the country and sector levels," with further actions expected. Goldman estimates the effective U.S. tariff rate has already risen by 9 percentage points—and may reach 14 points if additional sectoral tariffs are enacted.



These types of shocks, Peng noted, tend to "meaningfully pass through to consumer prices," citing the 2018–2019 trade war experience.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">High-Yield Spread: Why It Matters Now</h3>



The compression of high-yield spreads to 286 basis points signals calm, but risks may be building beneath the surface.



"Those juicy 7–8% yields might look tempting, but there's credit risk in there that most investors haven't had to really consider in a while," said Michael Gayed, CFA. "If credit spreads start widening and defaults tick up, the price direction on junk bonds can quickly turn south."



After a decade of cheap money, debt is now more expensive and credit quality matters. 



With trade tensions rising, volatility could return fast.



Read now:



<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/emerging-markets/25/07/46306953/emerging-markets-etfs-inflows-iemg-vwo-2025">Wall Street Is On Fire—So Why Is This Wall Of Cash Moving Abroad?</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Bonds

Treasuries

JOJO

Trump Tariffs: The Junk Bond Market May Be Sitting On A Time Bomb

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