La catena delle opzioni mostra i dati chiave delle opzioni azionarie di Ontrak a vari prezzi di esercizio e date di scadenza. I trader utilizzano queste informazioni per analizzare potenziali operazioni e valutare il sentiment del mercato per Ontrak..

Ontrak (OTC:OTRKP) Azioni, Catena delle Opzioni

Ontrak Inc is an artificial intelligence (AI)-powered and technology-enabled behavioral healthcare company, whose mission is to help improve the health and save the lives of as many people as possible. The group provides a value-based behavioral healthcare company that identifies and engages people with unmet health needs using the proprietary Advanced Engagement System to improve clinical outcomes and reduce total cost of care. The company's integrated, technology-enabled OntrakTM solutions, a component of the PRE platform, are designed to treat members with behavioral conditions that cause chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, COPD, and congestive heart failure.

Ontrak Inc

Oppenheimer analyst Christopher Glynn maintains OSI Systems (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OSIS#NASDAQ">OSIS</a>) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $225 to $260.

News

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

OSIS

Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on OSI Systems, Raises Price Target to $260

Shares of major U.S. airlines rose Monday as oil prices fell following OPEC+'s decision to ramp up production. American Airlines Group Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAL#NASDAQ">AAL</a>) surged 3.56% to $10.94, Delta Air Lines Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DAL#NYSE">DAL</a>) gained 3.12% to $45.67, and United Airlines Holdings Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UAL#NASDAQ">UAL</a>) rose 2.2% to $75.70.
What To Know: The rally comes after WTI crude futures <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/05/45194998/saudi-arabias-oil-power-play-jolts-markets-can-diamondback-and-rivals-survive-the-squeeze">dropped nearly 2%</a>, settling just below $57 per barrel. The decline was triggered by OPEC+'s announcement that it will increase oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June, adding to similar hikes in April and May.
Altogether, the bloc has reversed nearly half of the voluntary cuts made since 2022, aiming to discipline overproducing members like Iraq and Kazakhstan and reclaim market share.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/05/45201492/ford-stock-slips-ahead-of-q1-earnings-whats-driving-the-action">Ford Stock Slips Ahead Of Q1 Earnings: What&#8217;s Driving The Action?</a>
Lower oil prices are a major tailwind for airlines, which count jet fuel—closely tied to crude prices—as one of their largest operating expenses. Falling fuel costs can significantly improve profit margins, especially for carriers operating on thin margins like American.
With oil now trading well below the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/05/45194998/saudi-arabias-oil-power-play-jolts-markets-can-diamondback-and-rivals-survive-the-squeeze">$65 per barrel</a> threshold, investors on Monday are likely betting that airlines will benefit disproportionately from the energy market shift—explaining Monday's broad gains across the sector.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/05/45198174/robinhood-hood-stock-slips-despite-q1-earnings-beat-amid-mixed-analyst-reactions-whats-going-on">Robinhood Stock Slips Despite Q1 Earnings Beat Amid Mixed Analyst Reactions: What&#8217;s Going On?</a>

Airline Stocks Climb As Oil Prices Drop On OPEC+ Output Hike

Oppenheimer analyst Owen Lau maintains Cboe Global Markets (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CBOE#BATS">CBOE</a>) with a Outperform and raises the price target from $237 to $249.

CBOE

Oppenheimer Maintains Outperform on Cboe Global Markets, Raises Price Target to $249

<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A3k4DR1UDs">https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9A3k4DR1UDs</a>

General

President Trump Says Will Meet With Some Film Industry Officials; Says Wants To Make Sure Industry Is Happy With Tariff Idea

SEALSQ Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LAES#NASDAQ">LAES</a>) ("SEALSQ" or "Company"), a company that focuses on developing and selling Semiconductors, PKI and Post-Quantum technology hardware and software products, today announced that it has entered into a securities purchase agreement with several institutional investors to purchase 10,000,000 ordinary shares at a public offering price of $2.00 per ordinary share, for gross proceeds of $20.0 million (the "Offering"), before deducting commissions and offering expenses.

LAES

SEALSQ Announces $20M Public Offering, Selling 10M Ordinary Shares at $2.00/Shr

Wendy&#8217;s Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEN#NASDAQ">WEN</a>) shares were rising in early trading on Monday, despite the company announcing on Friday <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45197309/these-analysts-cut-their-forecasts-on-wendys-after-q1-results">downbeat first-quarter sales</a>.
The announcement came amid an <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings">exciting earnings season</a>. Here are some key analyst takeaways.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Truist Securities On Wendy&#8217;s</h1>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/589dc33d43eaaa000122c591/jake-bartlett">Analyst Jake Bartlett</a> maintained a Buy rating, while reducing the price target from $17 to $16.
Wendy&#8217;s reported first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $124.5 million, beating consensus of $122.1 million, Bartlett said in a note. He added, however, that U.S. same-store sales declined by 2.8%, worse than consensus of down 1.6%, while restaurant-level margins (RLM) of 14.3% also missed Street expectations of 14.5%.
US same-store sales decelerated sharply from the fourth quarter's 4.1% "due to adverse weather in January and February and a sharp macro pull-back in demand in March," the analyst wrote. Although management lowered their full-year systemwide sales growth guidance to -2% to flat, their prior projection of +2% to +3%, the company's "solid marketing plan" could partially offset macro headwinds, the analyst further stated.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">RBC Capital Markets On Wendy&#8217;s</h1>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/6645dc02eba8c50001257ef4/logan-reich">Analyst </a><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/6645dc02eba8c50001257ef4/logan-reich">Logan Reich</a> reiterated a Sector Perform rating with a price target of $14.
Wendy&#8217;s reported mixed results for the first quarter, with U.S. same-store sales being impacted by consumer softness, which seems to have continued into April, Reich said. While weather impacted sales during the first two months of the year, same-store sales "inflected to positive territory exiting February following the Thin Mint Frosty launch on 2/21," he added.
The deterioration in consumer sentiment and spending prompted management to lower their full-year guidance, the analyst stated. The guidance for company-owned margins were lowered by 100 basis points to 15%, "which could be partially attributed to tariffs in addition to softer top-line," he further wrote.
Check out <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings">other analyst stock ratings</a>.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Stephens On Wendy&#8217;s</h1>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/6495598a08348c00019c0ae9/jim-salera">Analyst Jim Salera</a> reaffirmed an Equal-weight rating and price target of $14.
Wendy&#8217;s total revenue of $523.5 million came in short of the consensus of $526.5 million, Salera said. The company's global same-store sales declined by 2.1%, worse than consensus of down 1%, he added.
The guidance reduction implies "softer same-store sales given the weaker-than-expected macro backdrop," the analyst wrote. Management lowered their 2025 earnings guidance to 92 cents-98 cents per share, from its prior projection of 98 cents-$1.02 per share, he further stated.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">KeyBanc Capital Markets On Wendy&#8217;s</h1>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/58e64302b85e9300014c97e6/eric-gonzalez">Analyst Eric Gonzalez</a> maintained a Sector Weight rating on the stock.
Wendy's same-store sales growth fell short of expectations, "as weather and declining consumer sentiment weighed on domestic trends, Gonzalez said. The trends are expected to remain in the low-to-middle single-digit range in the current quarter, he added.
"As such, the Company lowered its full-year outlook for system sales, EBITDA, and EPS, which assumes the current industry malaise persists," the analyst wrote. Wendy's is planning menu innovation, brand collaborations and other initiatives that could boost momentum in the second half of the year, he further stated.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Oppenheimer On Wendy&#8217;s</h1>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-stock-ratings/analyst/590b5cc4290fa700017b6a59/christopher-glynn">Analyst Brian Bittner</a> reiterated a Perform rating on the stock.
Wendy&#8217;s trimmed its 2025 EBITDA outlook to $530-$545 million, bringing it lower than Street expectations of $546 million, Bittner said. "This reflects a softer macro backdrop management has incorporated into its outlook for the remainder of the year," he wrote.
Although same-store sales turned positive in late February and early March, trends turned negative thereafter due to the uncertain macro, the analyst stated. Management&#8217;s new guidance reflects that the macro backdrop could remain soft for the rest of 2025, he added.
WEN Price Action: Shares of Wendy&#8217;s had risen by 1.79% to $12.78 at the time of publication on Monday.
Read More: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/45045012/sabre-divests-hospitality-arm-tpg-plans-debt-reductioncore-platform-focus"> </a> • <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/45045012/sabre-divests-hospitality-arm-tpg-plans-debt-reductioncore-platform-focus">Restaurant Sector Q1 Volatility From Weather, Inflation — Analyst Lowers Price Targets</a>

Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Reiteration

Restaurants

Trading Ideas

Wendy's Mixes Weak Sales With A Side Of Resilience: Fast-Food Restaurant Has 'Solid Marketing,' Menu Innovation Plans, Says Analyst

Mizuho analyst Maheep Mandloi upgrades Bloom Energy (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BE#NYSE">BE</a>) from Neutral to Outperform and lowers the price target from $28 to $26.

Upgrades

Mizuho Upgrades Bloom Energy to Outperform, Lowers Price Target to $26

Piper Sandler analyst Jessica Tassan maintains Cigna Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CI#NYSE">CI</a>) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $348 to $374.

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Cigna Group, Raises Price Target to $374

Piper Sandler analyst Paul Newsome maintains Skyward Specialty (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SKWD#NASDAQ">SKWD</a>) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $57 to $66.

SKWD

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Skyward Specialty, Raises Price Target to $66

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley maintains MARA Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MARA#NASDAQ">MARA</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $30 to $23.

MARA

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on MARA Holdings, Lowers Price Target to $23

Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) shares are trading lower Monday after industry data showed a drop in new car sales in Spain, which appears to be adding to concerns <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45192200/teslas-european-woes-deepen-as-new-car-sales-for-april-plunge-in-spain-as-chinese-rivals-soar">over European performance</a>.
What To Know: New registration data from Spanish industry group <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45192200/teslas-european-woes-deepen-as-new-car-sales-for-april-plunge-in-spain-as-chinese-rivals-soar">ANFAC</a> showed that Tesla sold 571 units in the country in April, down 36% on a year-over-year basis. 
Furthermore, sales over the first four months of the year declined 17% compared to the same period in 2024, while the broader electric vehicle category saw sales surge 54%, suggesting Tesla is not keeping pace with broader EV growth in the region.
Meanwhile, Chinese competitors such as BYD, MG and Omoda have posted <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45192200/teslas-european-woes-deepen-as-new-car-sales-for-april-plunge-in-spain-as-chinese-rivals-soar">triple-digit percentage gains</a> in the Spanish market so far this year, highlighting a shift in consumer preference. Tesla's share of the European market has reportedly slipped from 2.9% to 2% in just one year, compounding concerns for investors.
The broader sales declines comes amid CEO Elon Musk's polarizing political activity, which has led to public protests across Europe and vandalism targeting Tesla vehicles and infrastructure. Analysts have raised concerns over weakening brand strength on the back of Musk&#8217;s political involvement. 
Musk has said in recent weeks that he plans to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44955303/tesla-stock-is-ripping-higher-wednesday-whats-driving-the-action">scale back</a> direct involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to refocus on Tesla, which reported weak financial results last month. 
Total revenue fell 9% year-over-year in the first quarter as automotive revenue dropped 20% to $13.97 billion due to a decline in deliveries, Model Y updates and lower average selling prices. Tesla said it delivered 336,681 vehicles in the quarter, well below analyst estimates of 377,592 vehicles. 
Despite a strong rebound in Tesla's stock last month, where it gained over 23%, shares remain down more than 30% year-to-date. Reports surfaced last week suggesting that Tesla&#8217;s board was considering a replacement for Musk. Tesla quickly responded, calling the reports <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/45124373/tesla-board-explored-replacing-elon-musk-as-tesla-ceo-a-month-ago-report">&#8220;absolutely false.&#8221;</a>
&#8220;The CEO of Tesla is Elon Musk and the Board is highly confident in his ability to continue executing on the exciting growth plan ahead,&#8221; Tesla chairwoman Robyn Denholm said. 
TSLA Price Action: Tesla shares were down 2.45% at $280.16 at the time of writing, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?new_user=False&amp;backend=google-oauth2">Benzinga Pro.</a>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard?new_user=False&amp;backend=google-oauth2"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="558" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121732/Screenshot-2025-05-05-at-12.17.15-1024x558.png" alt="" class="wp-image-901814" style="width:482px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121732/Screenshot-2025-05-05-at-12.17.15-1024x558.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121732/Screenshot-2025-05-05-at-12.17.15-300x164.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121732/Screenshot-2025-05-05-at-12.17.15-768x419.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121732/Screenshot-2025-05-05-at-12.17.15.png 1487w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a></figure>
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45202340/stock-of-the-day-does-this-classic-pattern-suggest-a-move-higher-in-tesla">Stock Of The Day: Does This Classic Pattern Suggest A Move Higher In Tesla?</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock.

Global

Movers

TSLA

Tesla Stock Falls On European Sales Decline, Rising Competition: What's Going On?

Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Moley maintains Cboe Global Markets (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CBOE#BATS">CBOE</a>) with a Overweight and raises the price target from $234 to $245.

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Cboe Global Markets, Raises Price Target to $245

Piper Sandler analyst Frank Schiraldi maintains Arrow Finl (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AROW#NASDAQ">AROW</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $30 to $28.

AROW

Piper Sandler Maintains Neutral on Arrow Finl, Lowers Price Target to $28

<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Crude Oil False Breakout Strategy Backtest (2010–2024): Code, Filters &amp; Optimization Guide</h2>
In this article, we'll explore a trading technique that isn't widely known but is certainly worth examining: the false breakout strategy, also known as the "Fade Breakout." This strategy takes advantage of situations where the market initially seems poised to break through key price levels—such as highs or lows, or support and resistance—but then abruptly reverses direction and continues moving in the opposite way.
This is a clearly counterintuitive approach, falling under the category of mean-reverting or reversal strategies. It does not follow the existing trend but rather seeks to enter a position when prices are primed for a reversal. In today's markets—especially in the short term—this type of approach tends to be increasingly effective. That's due to the high liquidity and efficiency present in certain markets, which often causes prices to retrace quickly when approaching significant levels, only to then resume their original trend in a zig-zag fashion.
Based on these assumptions, we're going to test whether a market typically known for trend-following behavior—like the Crude Oil Future (@CL)—could also present profitable opportunities using this kind of mean-reverting logic.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Fade Breakout Strategy Setup: Rules &amp; Code for Crude Oil Futures</h2>
Let's define the rules of this simple strategy.
We'll open a short position if, after breaking above the previous day's high (Highd(1)), prices drop back below that level in the very next bar.
Conversely, we'll open a long position if, after breaking below the previous day's low (Lowd(1)), prices rise back above that level in the next bar.
Here's the basic code that captures this logic:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">input: MyStop(0)
if c[1]&gt;highd(1) and c&lt;highd(1) then sellshort next bar at market;
if c[1]&lt;lowd(1) and c&gt;lowd(1) then buy next bar at market;
setstopcontract;
setexitonclose;
</blockquote>
The system operates on 30-minute bars and closes all positions at the end of the trading day—unless a $1,500 stop loss is triggered. Figure 1 shows the equity curve for the strategy applied from 2010 through 2024.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="603" height="354" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121422/immagine.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12214" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121422/immagine.png 603w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121422/immagine-300x176.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 603px) 100vw, 603px" /></figure>
Figure 1 – Backtested Equity Curve of the Crude Oil False Breakout Strategy (2010–2024)
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="603" height="345" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121431/immagine-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12215" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121431/immagine-1.png 603w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121431/immagine-1-300x172.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 603px) 100vw, 603px" /></figure>
Figure 2 – Performance Metrics: Crude Oil Intraday Strategy Without Filters
The metrics already appear interesting, with a steadily rising equity curve across the full historical range. However, the average trade—at just $33—is still too low. This could be improved by adding filters to reduce the number of trades, which currently sits around 3,000.
Likewise, the maximum drawdown of $29,000 is too high for an intraday system and needs to be reduced. Still, considering these results come from only a few lines of code, the foundations for a promising strategy are certainly present.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Improving Strategy Performance: Volume Filters for False Breakouts</h2>
So, what's the next step in improving this system? What kind of filter would make sense here?
Let's not forget what drives our entry logic: we're entering after a failed breakout attempt—presumably because the market lacked the strength to break through a certain level. What if we tried to measure this strength using volume?
Let's add volume as a filter. A trade will now only be executed if there's been a false breakout and the volume in the breakout bar is lower than the average volume over a defined number of bars, specified by the input "vol_len".
We'll run an optimization on "vol_len", ranging from 2 to 20 with steps of 1.
Below is the updated code with the volume filter applied:
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">input: MyStop(0), MyProfit(0);
input: num_bar(1);
input: vol_len(10);
If Volume[1] &lt; Average(Volume, vol_len)&nbsp; then begin
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; if c[1]&gt;highd(1) and c&lt;highd(1) then sellshort next bar at market;
&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; if c[1]&lt;lowd(1) and c&gt;lowd(1) then buy next bar at market;
end;
if MyStop &gt; 0 then setstoploss(MyStop);
If MyProfit &gt; 0 then setprofittarget(MyProfit);
setstopcontract;
setexitonclose;
</blockquote>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="565" height="213" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121458/immagine-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12216" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121458/immagine-2.png 565w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121458/immagine-2-300x113.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px" /></figure>
Figure 3 – Optimization Results for Volume Filter Input "vol_len"
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="565" height="190" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121505/immagine-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12217" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121505/immagine-3.png 565w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121505/immagine-3-300x101.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px" /></figure>
Figure 4 – Improved Trade Metrics After Adding Volume Filter (vol_len = 15)
Choosing a value of 15 for vol_len significantly reduces the max drawdown from $29,000 to around $17,000 and nearly doubles the average trade from $33 to $64. This is due to the number of trades being cut from 2,989 to 1,319.
So, volume is indeed a meaningful and helpful indicator for our strategy. Intuitively, low-volume breakout attempts are more likely to fail, leading to a reversal—at least in the short term.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="578" height="342" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121517/immagine-2-1.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12218" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121517/immagine-2-1.png 578w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121517/immagine-2-1-300x178.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 578px) 100vw, 578px" /></figure>
Figure 5 – Chart Example of a Long Entry
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Stop Loss &amp; Profit Target Optimization to Increase the Average Trade Value</h2>
Let's now move on to the next level of our analysis by taking a look at the optimal Stop Loss and Profit Target values. Up until now, we've used a fixed Stop Loss of $1,500 and haven't set any monetary profit target to close the position, other than the session close at 5:00 PM.
So, we'll optimize the "MyStop" and "MyProfit" inputs—setting the former in a range from 1000 to 1800 with a step of 100, and the latter from 0 to 3000, also with a 100 step.
As for the Stop Loss, we'll choose a value of $1,400, and for the Profit Target, we'll go with $1,800, since this setup allows us to increase our average trade to $78 with a net profit of approximately $104,000.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="565" height="120" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121534/immagine-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12219" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121534/immagine-4.png 565w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121534/immagine-4-300x64.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px" /></figure>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="565" height="361" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121551/immagine-5.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12220" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121551/immagine-5.png 565w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121551/immagine-5-300x192.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px" /></figure>
Figure 6 – Stop Loss &amp; Profit Target Optimization Ranges
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="565" height="330" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121606/immagine-6.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12221" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121606/immagine-6.png 565w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121606/immagine-6-300x175.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 565px) 100vw, 565px" /></figure>
Figure 7 – Strategy Results After Stop Loss and Profit Target Optimization
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Advanced Filtering: Using Price Patterns to Improve Strategy Reliability</h2>
At this stage of development, we have a trading system that is definitely interesting but still not ready for live trading or capable of handling the associated costs. So we proceed with additional testing—for example, using our proprietary pattern lists to check whether certain price configurations can help further filter the system. We then optimize accordingly.
One particularly promising pattern is Pattern No. -8. When applied, it allows entry into a position only if the distance between the current session's open and low is not greater than the same distance measured in the previous session, multiplied by a specific coefficient. Essentially, prices must not have dropped beyond a certain threshold; otherwise, the trade is blocked.
Given the improvements it brings, we decide to implement it: the net profit rises to $110,720, the drawdown decreases from $15,700 to $12,750, and the average trade increases from $78 to $98.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="567" height="132" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121617/immagine-2-2.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12222" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121617/immagine-2-2.png 567w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121617/immagine-2-2-300x70.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></figure>
Figure 8 – Pattern Optimization Results
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="567" height="333" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121621/immagine-2-3.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12223" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121621/immagine-2-3.png 567w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121621/immagine-2-3-300x176.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 567px) 100vw, 567px" /></figure>
Figure 9 – Refined Equity Curve After Applying Pattern Filter
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="455" height="263" src="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121630/immagine-2-4.png" alt="" class="wp-image-12224" srcset="https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121630/immagine-2-4.png 455w,https://contributor-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05121630/immagine-2-4-300x173.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 455px) 100vw, 455px" /></figure>
Figure 10 – Final Performance Summary: Crude Oil False Breakout Strategy with All Filters Applied
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Conclusion: Is the False Breakout Strategy Worth Using on Crude Oil Futures?</h2>
The strategy now shows an overall average trade of nearly $100, which is not far from the minimum value we generally recommend for this type of intraday system ($110–$120), where positions are held for just a few hours a day. However, all the foundations for a solid trading system are in place, as we&#8217;ve achieved a fairly consistent and profitable equity line across most of the years in the backtest. This proves that this entry technique—based on false breakouts—performs well in today's markets, including those that have historically been more strongly trend-following.
We've reached the end of this article, and now it's your turn to take this system further—perhaps by using other pattern libraries from Unger Academy to filter and refine the most profitable trades.
Until next time, happy trading!

Technicals

Commodities

Opinion

Markets

Is The False Breakout Strategy Worth Using On Crude Oil Futures?

UBS analyst Josh Silverstein upgrades EQT (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQT#NYSE">EQT</a>) from Neutral to Buy and raises the price target from $54 to $64.

UBS Upgrades EQT to Buy, Raises Price Target to $64

UBS analyst Gregg Orrill upgrades Portland Gen Electric (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/POR#NYSE">POR</a>) from Neutral to Buy and raises the price target from $47 to $50.

UBS Upgrades Portland Gen Electric to Buy, Raises Price Target to $50

UBS analyst Graham Doyle upgrades GE HealthCare Techs (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GEHC#NASDAQ">GEHC</a>) from Sell to Neutral and lowers the price target from $74 to $73.

GEHC

UBS Upgrades GE HealthCare Techs to Neutral, Lowers Price Target to $73

Piper Sandler analyst John Barnidge maintains Apollo Global Management (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/APO#NYSE">APO</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $193 to $174.

Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight on Apollo Global Management, Lowers Price Target to $174

Shares of Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) are trading lower Monday. But they continue to be <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/electric-vehicle">in a sideways trend</a>.
A classic ‘Flag' pattern may have formed on the chart. If so, it could be bullish for the shares and suggest the recent uptrend may soon get back into gear. This is why we have made it our <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/stock-of-the-day">Stock of the Day</a>.
Many traders and investors were surprised and confused when Tesla rallied after posting disappointing earnings. They didn't understand why the stock moved higher. But it was simply the result of supply and demand.
Because the numbers were widely anticipated to be bad, people sold or shorted shares before the release. So, by the time the earnings hit the tape, everyone who wanted to sell had done so. The market had run out of sellers.
And a market with no supply can only move higher. Those who wish to buy are forced to push the price up to get sellers interested and draw them into the market.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/05/45188953/mohamed-el-erian-expects-fed-to-hold-rates-warns-us-china-trade-war-impact-will-show-in-this-key-economic-data">Mohamed El-Erian Expects Fed To Hold Rates, Warns US-China Trade War Impact Will Show In This Key Economic Data</a>
As you can see on the chart below, the move upwards was driven by a large amount of volume.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="570" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05133303/one-1024x570.png" alt="" class="wp-image-901949" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05133303/one-1024x570.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05133303/one-300x167.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05133303/one-768x428.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/05133303/one.png 1444w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
But some of the people who drove the price higher may have thought that the rally got ahead of itself. They thought that if they took a break and stepped out of the market for a few days, the stock price could decline and they could finish their buying at lower prices.
As a result of these buyers going to the sidelines, the volume that trades fell off. The sideways range that forms on the chart can end up looking like a flag, following a move higher that looks like a pole.
The flag pattern is a ‘continuation' pattern.
If the traders who drove the price higher see that their leaving the market hasn't resulted in the stock dropping, they will reenter the market and continue buying. This could force the stock into an uptrend and it may be about to happen with Tesla.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45192936/wall-street-veteran-investor-lowers-recession-risk-as-us-china-trade-war-cools">Wall Street Veteran Investor Lowers Recession Risk As US-China Trade War Cools</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Stock Of The Day: Does This Classic Pattern Suggest A Move Higher In Tesla?

TD Securities analyst Wayne Lam maintains Hecla Mining (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HL#NYSE">HL</a>) with a Hold and lowers the price target from $6 to $5.

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