Restaurant Brands Intl Azioni (NYSE: QSR)

Ultime notizie per Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:QSR) Azioni

Restaurant Brands Intl

Restaurant Brands International is one of the largest restaurant companies in the world, with approximately $44 billion in 2024 systemwide sales across a footprint that spanned more than 32,000 restaurants and more than 100 countries. The firm generates revenue primarily from retail sales at its company-owned restaurants, royalty fees and lease income from franchised stores, and from its Tim Hortons supply chain operations. Formed in 2014 after 3G Capital's acquisition of Tim Hortons International, the RBI portfolio is split among Burger King (7,082 units), Tim Hortons (4,539 units), Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen (3,520 units), Firehouse Subs (1,345 units), and international franchise units of those banners (15,639) as of year-end 2024.

Passive,Income,Financial,Concept,And,Financial,Investment,Business,Stock,Growth.

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Earnings

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Restaurant Brands International: Gli analisti rivedono le previsioni per il secondo trimestre 2024, ecco cosa aspettarsi dai risultati.

Restaurant Brands: cosa prevedono gli analisti per il Q2

Restaurant Brands International Inc. Common Shares

Restaurant Brands International Inc

Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. faces mounting pressure from Republican lawmakers and farming communities as his highly anticipated &#8220;Make America Healthy Again&#8221; report approaches Thursday&#8217;s release, with glyphosate pesticide regulations emerging as the primary flashpoint between public health advocates and agricultural interests.
What Happened: The MAHA Commission report, mandated by President Donald Trump within 100 days to analyze childhood disease factors, has sparked preemptive opposition from 79 Republican lawmakers representing farming states, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-kennedy-farmers-maha-trump-pesticides-5d5a83bde6b88290cf9c3536e74523be">according</a> to AP. Iowa Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley warned Wednesday that farmers have expressed concerns about being excluded from the report&#8217;s input process.
Kennedy addressed Senate Appropriations Committee concerns from Mississippi Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith, stating &#8220;there&#8217;s not a single word in them that should worry the American farmer&#8221; and promising not to &#8220;jeopardize that business model.&#8221; The commission, established by Trump&#8217;s February executive order, was tasked with examining prescription drugs, chemicals, and food ingredients affecting children.
The report comes alongside a proposed $500 million budget boost for Kennedy&#8217;s MAHA initiative, while simultaneously cutting infectious disease prevention, maternal health, and medical research programs. Kennedy supporters, including 360 MAHA advocates and former campaign staffers, have submitted pesticide studies pressing for chemical industry accountability.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45558200/advance-auto-parts-gears-up-for-q1-print-here-are-the-recent-forecast-changes-from-wall-streets-most-accurate-analysts">Advance Auto Parts Gears Up For Q1 Print; Here Are The Recent Forecast Changes From Wall Street&#8217;s Most Accurate Analysts</a>
Why It Matters: The report&#8217;s potential glyphosate restrictions could significantly impact agricultural productivity and food company operations. Kennedy&#8217;s broader MAHA agenda has already influenced restaurant industry practices, with Biglari Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BH#NASDAQ">BH</a>) subsidiary Steak &#8216;n Shake switching from seed oils to beef tallow for French fries, earning Kennedy&#8217;s public praise for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/restaurants/25/03/44280041/rfk-jr-thanks-steak-n-shake-for-rfking-the-french-fries-restaurant-goes-all-in-on-make-america-healthy-again">&#8220;RFKing the French fries.&#8221;</a>
Other restaurant chains, including Sweetgreen Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>), Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>)-owned Outback Steakhouse, and Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>)-owned Popeyes, have initiated similar transitions. Kennedy has scheduled meetings with food giants PepsiCo Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NASDAQ">PEP</a>) and General Mills Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GIS#NYSE">GIS</a>) to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44209953/rfk-jr-takes-on-food-giants-calls-meeting-with-pepsico-and-general-mills">address processed food concerns.</a>
The MAHA initiative&#8217;s budget proposal threatens the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/personal-finance/25/05/45522362/we-have-no-details-says-food-program-director-as-trumps-maha-boxes-threaten-730000-seniors-grocery-lifeline">$425 million Commodity Supplemental Food Program</a>, potentially affecting 730,000 seniors&#8217; grocery access through replacement &#8220;MAHA boxes.&#8221; Food program directors report logistical challenges and communication gaps, with Connecticut Foodshare experiencing 34 canceled federal shipments affecting over 600 food banks statewide.
The World Health Organization classifies glyphosate as a probable human carcinogen, while farmers argue it remains essential for weed control without excessive soil tilling, creating a regulatory tension between public health priorities and agricultural economics.
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Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image Via Shutterstock

Health Care

Politics

BLMN

RFK Jr.'s 'Make America Healthy Again' Report Stirs GOP, Farmers Over Glyphosate Concerns Ahead Of Release

Editor&#8217;s Note: This article has been updated to reflect that Pershing Square converted its Nike stock into call options, maintaining exposure
Bill Ackman could have a new love for the automotive sector with a new investment made in the first quarter and an added position to a stake from the fourth quarter of 2024 that was <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44878275/billionare-investor-bill-ackman-posts-hertz-investment-thesis-proposes-av-fleet-partnership-with-uber">revealed in April.</a>
Here's a look at Ackman's investment holdings in Pershing Square as of March 31.
First Quarter Changes: Ackman and Pershing Square unveiled a new stake in Uber Technologies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UBER#NYSE">UBER</a>) in the first quarter with a position of more than 30 million shares. The stake is now the largest holding the Pershing Square portfolio and comes with the investor making several recent moves to his investment strategy.
Ackman increased his stake in Hertz Global Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HTZ#NASDAQ">HTZ</a>) in the first quarter with the <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1336528/000117266125002315/0001172661-25-002315-index.html">filing </a>showing an 18% increase.
Ackman's stake in Hertz was unveiled via a tweet and an updated SEC filing in April. A 12.7 million share purchase was originally kept from the fourth-quarter holdings document due to a request for confidentiality.
Here were the other increased stakes in the quarter:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Brookfield Corporation: +18%</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc Class A (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>): +11%</li>
</ul>
Pershing Square lowered its investments in the following stocks in the first quarter:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Hilton Worldwide Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HLT#NYSE">HLT</a>): -45%</li>
<li>Google Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>): -16%</li>
<li>Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>): -13%</li>
<li>Canadian Pacific (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CP#NYSE">CP</a>): decreased by less than 1%</li>
</ul>
One notable move in the quarter was Pershing Square&#8217;s conversion of its 18.8 million Nike shares into over-the-counter call options, maintaining a similar economic exposure.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/02/43799342/bill-ackman-following-warren-buffett-hedge-funder-promises-modern-day-berkshire-hathaway-with-latest-transaction">Bill Ackman Follows Warren Buffett: Hedge Funder Promises &#8216;Modern Day Berkshire Hathaway&#8217; With Latest Transaction</a>
Ackman's Top Holdings: The newest 13F filing shows 11 stocks owned by Ackman and Pershing Square. Here are the current holdings and their percentage of the investment fund:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Uber: 19%</li>
<li>Brookfield: 18%</li>
<li>Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>): 13%</li>
<li>Howard Hughes Holdings (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HHH#NYSE">HHH</a>): 12%</li>
<li>Chipotle: 9.1%</li>
<li>Canadian Pacific: 8.7%</li>
<li>Alphabet Class C: 8.3%</li>
<li>Alphabet Class A: 5.8%</li>
<li>Hilton: 5.7%</li>
<li>Seaport Entertainment Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SEG#NYSE">SEG</a>): 0.9%</li>
<li>Hertz: 0.5%</li>
</ul>
The latest 13F filing comes as Ackman is trying to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45401638/howard-hughes-rises-nearly-3-in-pre-market-as-bill-ackman-exits-from-universal-music-groups-board-to-prioritize-new-investments">buy control of </a>Howard Hughes and turn it into a diversified holding company to copy the conglomerate style of legendary investor Warren Buffett.
The Pershing Square 13F could look significantly different next quarter.
Read Next: 
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.

Management

GOOG

GOOGL

UBER

Bill Ackman Loads Up On Uber In Major Q1 Portfolio Rebalance (CORRECTED)

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) (TSX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#TSX">QSR</a>) ("RBI") has been notified of an unsolicited mini-tender offer made by New York Stock and Bond LLC ("NYSB") to purchase up to 100,000 RBI common shares, or approximately 0.03% of the company's outstanding common shares, at a price of US$44.00 per share.&nbsp; RBI cautions shareholders that the mini-tender offer has been made at a price below market price for RBI shares. The offer represents a discount of 29.96% on the NYSE closing price for RBI common shares on April 21, 2025, the last trading day before the mini-tender offer was commenced.

TSX:QSR

Restaurant Brands International Recommends Shareholders Reject NYSB's US$44.00/Shr "Mini-tender Offer"

Morgan Stanley analyst John Glass maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Equal-Weight and raises the price target from $72 to $73.

Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Restaurant Brands Intl, Raises Price Target to $73

Just months after assuming full control of its underperforming Chinese chain, Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) is moving swiftly to offload its Burger King China operations.
What Happened: On Thursday, during its <a href="https://benzinga.com/25/05/45292609/burger-king-parent-restaurant-brands-q1-earnings-miss-comparable-sales-drop-and-more">first quarter earnings</a> call, the fast food holding company revealed that it was classifying its Burger King China subsidiary as &#8220;held for sale&#8221; on its books, while simultaneously engaging Morgan Stanley Inc. to find a new local &#8220;controlling shareholder.&#8221;
This comes just months after it acquired its remaining equity interest in Burger King China from its former joint venture partners in February. 
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45311562/mohamed-el-erian-flags-adverse-implications-for-domestic-industries-as-chinas-exports-rise-8-despite-21-drop-in-us-shipments">Mohamed El-Erian Flags &#8216;Adverse Implications&#8217; For Domestic Industries As China&#8217;s Exports Rise 8% Despite 21% Drop In US Shipments</a>
Restaurant Brands has already made good progress in restructuring the company over the past three months. &#8220;We've made great progress in the three months since we bought it,&#8221; says Executive Chairman Patrick Doyle.
This involved the closure of several unprofitable stores, a move that was described by CEO Joshua Kobza as &#8220;a critical and necessary step to reposition the business for long-term success.&#8221;
The unit is already weighing on the company&#8217;s finances, according to CFO Sami Siddiqui, who notes that it resulted in a $9 million revenue and operating income headwind during the quarter. &#8220;For the full year, assuming no change in ownership, we expect a $37 million impact to revenue and a $19 million impact to AOI [Adjusted Operating Income],&#8221; Siddiqui says. 
This move underscores the management&#8217;s focus on curbing complexity, with Doyle stating, &#8220;We're operating in a moment of peak complexity, but our business will get simpler from here,&#8221; adding that &#8220;We can't control the macro environment, but we can control our complexity.&#8221;
Why It Matters: Analysts have been <a href="https://benzinga.com/25/02/43707945/restaurant-brands-international-faces-challenges-but-remains-on-track-for-growth-say-analysts">increasingly bullish on the stock</a> in recent months, citing strong same-store-sales figures and a turnaround in China operations. 
During its <a href="https://benzinga.com/25/05/45292609/burger-king-parent-restaurant-brands-q1-earnings-miss-comparable-sales-drop-and-more">first quarter results</a> on Thursday, the company reported $2.11 billion in revenue, up 21.3% year-over-year, with a profit of $0.75 per share, against $0.73 per share a year ago. 
Price Action: The stock was down 0.53% on Thursday and is down another 0.34% after hours following its first quarter results. 
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="134" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM-1024x134.png" alt="" class="wp-image-909779" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM-1024x134.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM-300x39.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM-768x101.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM-1536x201.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/09050936/Screenshot-2025-05-09-at-2.39.18-PM.png 1604w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
According to Benzinga Edge Stock Rankings, the stock fares well in the short and medium term, but is unfavorable in the long term. For more insights, sign up for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">Benzinga Edge</a>. 
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</ul>
Image Via Shutterstock

Equities

Restaurants

'Held For Sale': Restaurant Brands International Moves Swiftly To Exit Burger King China, Citing Peak Complexity And Drag On Finances

Restaurant Brands International Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) reported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/05/n45279852/restaurant-brands-international-inc-reports-first-quarter-2025-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">first-quarter revenue growth</a> of 21.3% year-on-year to $2.11 billion, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $2.13 billion.
Consolidated comparable sales increased 0.1%, and net restaurants grew 3.3% versus the prior year. Consolidated system-wide sales increased 2.8%.
Comparable sales for Tim Hortons&nbsp;fell&nbsp;0.1%, Burger King decreased&nbsp;1.3%, and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen slumped&nbsp;4%. Revenue for Burger King rose 1.8%, and Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen increased 9%, while that of Tim Hortons fell 3.7% year over year.
Adjusted EPS of 75 cents <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">missed the consensus</a> estimate of 78 cents, but grew compared to 73 cents last year.
General and administrative expenses increased 10.4%. The operating income for the quarter declined 20% to $435 million.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45272097/kellogg-has-margin-opportunity-but-challenges-keep-shares-grounded-says-analyst" rel="noreferrer noopener">Long-Term Decline In Cereal Market Poses Structural Challenges For Kellogg, Analyst Says</a>
Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $642 million, up from $627 million in the prior year.
Restaurant Brands held $899 million in cash and equivalents as of March-end. Net cash provided by operating activities for the quarter totaled $118 million.
Restaurant Brands' Board of Directors has declared a dividend of $0.62 per common share, payable on July&nbsp;8, 2025, to shareholders and unitholders of record at the close of business on June&nbsp;24, 2025.
"We are making solid progress executing the fundamentals of our business, despite a slower start to the year. We have clear growth plans across each of our brands and strong alignment with our franchisees," said CEO&nbsp;Josh Kobza.
"We're seeing encouraging momentum in Q2 and combined with responsible cost management, are on track to deliver stronger results through the balance of the year and achieve at least 8 percent organic adjusted operating income growth in 2025."
Outlook: Restaurant Brands&nbsp;sees FY25 capital expenditures of $400 million &#8211; $450 million.
For the long term, from 2024 to 2028, Restaurant Brands&nbsp;expects a comparable sales growth of 3% and an organic adjusted operating income growth of 8%.
Price Action: QSR shares traded lower by 0.29% at $67.70 at the last check on Thursday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44907247" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Restaurant Sector Q1 Volatilty From Weather, Inflation — Analyst Lowers Price Targets</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Savvapanf Photo via Shutterstock

Guidance

General

Most Of Burger King Parent Restaurant Brands Growth Came From New Restaurants; It Plans Up To $450 Million In 2025 Capex

WIIM

QSR stock has given up its prior loss. Restaurant Brands shares were trading lower after the company reported Q1 results below estimates.

Restaurant Brands shares are trading lower after the company reported Q1 results below estimates.

Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) reported quarterly earnings of $0.75 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $0.78 by 3.85 percent. This is a 2.74 percent increase over earnings of $0.73 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $2.11 billion which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $2.13 billion by 0.88 percent. This is a 21.28 percent increase over sales of $1.74 billion the same period last year.

Earnings Misses

Restaurant Brands Intl Q1 Adj. EPS $0.75 Misses $0.78 Estimate, Sales $2.11B Miss $2.13B Estimate

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Earnings Scheduled For May 8, 2025

UBS analyst Dennis Geiger maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $90 to $85.

UBS Maintains Buy on Restaurant Brands Intl, Lowers Price Target to $85

Goldman Sachs analyst Christine Cho on Wednesday provided a preview of the first quarter for U.S. restaurants.
What Happened: U.S. restaurant companies faced a tough start to 2025, with weaker consumer sentiment, weather impacts and tariff uncertainties affecting performance, except for a few like Brinker International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EAT#NYSE">EAT</a>).
Although first-quarter softness was expected, risks remain on the downside due to macroeconomic and policy uncertainties, as reflected in Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44996394/chipotle-battles-slumping-sales-but-honey-chicken-boosts-hope-say-analysts">same-store sales growth miss and lowered guidance</a>.
These factors are likely to dominate investor attention during the earnings season, noted the analyst.
Despite no major changes in consumer intent for restaurant spending, recent adjustments to estimates reflect lower macroeconomic forecasts from GS economists, including slower GDP growth and a higher recession probability.
Restaurant sales trends are closely tied to consumer spending, and weaker macro conditions suggest lower comparable store-sales growth in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
Inflation&#8217;s impact on margins is limited, and there&#8217;s a higher risk to global restaurant development plans, particularly in international markets, which could reduce long-term unit growth, the analyst said.
Economists predict a slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 0.5% in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024, with a 45% recession risk, up from 20% earlier in the year due to tightening financial conditions, foreign boycotts, and policy uncertainty.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/04/44977669/pepsico-ceo-warns-of-tariffs-led-increase-in-supply-chain-costs-cuts-annual-profit-outlook">PepsiCo CEO Warns Of Tariffs Led &#8216;Increase In Supply Chain Costs,&#8217; Cuts Annual Profit Outlook</a>
The deceleration in consumer spending and macro headwinds are putting pressure on restaurant top-line growth, with varying impacts across different restaurant types.
Fast food restaurants show the lowest sensitivity to macroeconomic conditions, with higher resiliency compared to fast casual and full-service restaurants, which are more correlated with GDP and consumer discretionary spending.
Recent surveys show no significant shifts in consumer purchase intent for restaurants, with full-service restaurants seeing improvement compared to grocery stores, while limited-service restaurants have contracted in recent months.
What&#8217;s Next: Companies like Wendy&#8217;s Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEN#NASDAQ">WEN</a>), Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>), Domino&#8217;s Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NASDAQ">DPZ</a>), Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WING#NASDAQ">WING</a>), Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>), and Jack In The Box Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JACK#NASDAQ">JACK</a>) have higher lease-adjusted net leverage, with Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>) and Domino&#8217;s facing notable near-term debt maturities.
Slower same-store sales growth and higher build costs are expected to hurt franchisee profitability and reduce demand for new stores.
Many fast food chains anticipate slower unit expansion in 2025, with Jack in The Box planning major cutbacks and closures, while fast casual/casual dining brands remain mostly on track.
Potential U.S. tariffs may raise domestic build costs, while international growth faces challenges from weaker global demand and rising anti-U.S. brand sentiment.
U.S. tariff actions and foreign policy stances have damaged international perceptions of the U.S., raising concerns about reduced demand for American brands.
While it&#8217;s too soon to measure definitive consumer pullback, monitoring sentiment is increasingly important for U.S. brands abroad.
Morning Consult data shows a YTD decline in U.S. favorability across most tracked countries, particularly Canada, Western Europe and Mexico.
Despite rising anti-U.S. sentiment globally, current data indicates no strong link between U.S. tariffs and Chinese consumer attitudes toward U.S. brands.
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Analyst Color

CAKE

JACK

SBUX

SHAK

TXRH

WING

US Restaurants Face Growth Hurdles As Macro Headwinds Mount, Says Analyst

Truist Securities analyst Jake Bartlett maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $83 to $78.

Truist Securities Maintains Buy on Restaurant Brands Intl, Lowers Price Target to $78

Wells Fargo analyst Zachary Fadem maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $69 to $66.

Wells Fargo Maintains Equal-Weight on Restaurant Brands Intl, Lowers Price Target to $66

BofA Securities analyst Sara Senatore provides an analysis for restaurant sector performance in the first <a href="https://trello.com/c/f3PFGoRF/331021-restaurants-q1-previewbofa">quarter</a>.
Restaurant demand showed mixed results due to weather and a calendar shift, said the analyst. 
Black Box industry data revealed a deceleration in same-store sales growth (SSSG) across all segments from January to February, but March saw improvement, excluding Fine Dining. 
Restaurant spending growth improved in March, with chain spending recovering from -7.5% in February to -3.5%.
Independent restaurants saw a rise in spending, from -2.7% in February to +1.3%. The rebound was attributed to better weather and the impact of the calendar shift in February. 
In the first quarter, prices for soybeans, wheat and soybean oil continued to deflate, though at a slower rate than in the fourth quarter of FY24. 
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Coffee prices surged, increasing by 96.8% year-over-year, up from 56.8% in the fourth quarter. Beef inflation rose to 5.5%, compared to 1.3% in the previous quarter.
Cheese prices decreased by 1.8%, while dairy inflation slowed to 1.3%. Futures markets predict deflation in several commodities in the second quarter of 2025, but coffee, natural gas and beef are expected to see inflation, noted the analyst.
Restaurants index in the S&amp;P 500 is trading at 1.2x forward EPS, below its 5-year, 10-year and 15-year averages of 1.4x.
Industry data indicates a demand recovery in March after weak months in January and February. While consensus expectations for restaurants remain high, first-quarter results may fall short of estimates. 
Investors are focused on April trends and the potential impact of tariffs on consumer sentiment, traffic and COGS inflation.
So, keeping the above points in mind, the analyst has lowered the price targets for Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>), Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BROS#NYSE">BROS</a>), Cheesecake Factory Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAKE#NASDAQ">CAKE</a>), Cracker Barrel Old Country Store Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CBRL#NASDAQ">CBRL</a>), Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>), Krispy Kreme Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DNUT#NASDAQ">DNUT</a>), Domino&#8217;s Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NASDAQ">DPZ</a>), Brinker International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EAT#NYSE">EAT</a>), Jack In The Box Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JACK#NASDAQ">JACK</a>), McDonald&#8217;s Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCD#NYSE">MCD</a>), Papa John&#8217;s International Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PZZA#NASDAQ">PZZA</a>), Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>), Sweetgreen Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>), Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>), Sysco Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SYY#NYSE">SYY</a>), Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXRH#NASDAQ">TXRH</a>), Wendy&#8217;s Co (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WEN#NASDAQ">WEN</a>), Wingstop Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WING#NASDAQ">WING</a>), and Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>).
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Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/Rawpixel">Rawpixel.com</a> via Shutterstock

BROS

CBRL

DNUT

PZZA

Restaurant Sector Q1 Volatilty From Weather, Inflation — Analyst Lowers Price Targets

Baird analyst David Tarantino maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $72 to $65.

Baird Maintains Neutral on Restaurant Brands Intl, Lowers Price Target to $65

Guggenheim analyst Gregory Francfort maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $71 to $77.

Guggenheim Maintains Buy on Restaurant Brands Intl, Raises Price Target to $77

Companies with a long history of paying dividends and consistently hiking them remain appealing to income-focused investors. PepsiCo, Restaurant Brands, and Fifth Third Bancorp have rewarded shareholders for years and recently announced dividend increases. These companies currently offer dividend yields of over 3%.
PepsiCo
PepsiCo (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEP#NASDAQ">PEP</a>) engages in the manufacture, marketing, distribution, and sale of various beverages and convenient foods worldwide.
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The company has increased its dividends consecutively for the past 53 years. According to its most recent dividend hike announcement on Feb. 5, PepsiCo raised the quarterly payout by 7% to $1.355, which is equal to $5.42 annually. Currently, the dividend yield on the stock stands at 3.66%.
PepsiCo's annual revenue as of Dec. 31 stood at $91.85 billion. In its Q4 2024 earnings report on Feb. 4, the company posted EPS of $1.96, beating the consensus estimate of $1.94, while revenues of $27.78 billion came in below the consensus of $27.89 billion.
How is the market feeling about PepsiCo? Check out this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/insights/short-sellers/25/03/44260293/how-is-the-market-feeling-about-pepsico">article by Benzinga</a> to learn more.
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Restaurant Brands International
Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) operates as a quick-service restaurant company in Canada, the U.S., and internationally.
Restaurant Brands has raised its dividends every year for the last 10 years. In its most recent dividend announcement on Feb. 12, the board increased the quarterly payout from $0.58 to $0.62 per share, equaling an annual figure of $2.48 per share. The current yield on the dividend is 3.65%.
The company's annual revenue as of Dec. 31 stood at $8.41 billion. In its most recent quarterly earnings release on Feb. 12, the company posted Q4 2024 EPS of $0.81 and revenues of $2.30 billion. Both figures beat the Street estimates.
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Fifth Third Bancorp
Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FITB#NASDAQ">FITB</a>) operates as the bank holding company for Fifth Third Bank, National Association that engages in the provision of a range of financial products and services in the U.S.
Fifth Third Bancorp has increased its dividends every year for the last nine years. In its most recent dividend hike announcement on Sept. 12, the company raised the quarterly payout from $0.35 to $0.37 per share, equal to an annual figure of $1.48 per share. Currently, the dividend yield on the stock is 3.75%.
The company&#8217;s annual revenue as of Dec. 31 stood at $8.25 billion. In its Q4 2024 earnings release on Jan. 21, Fifth Third Bancorp posted revenues of $2.17 billion, below the consensus estimate of $2.21 billion, while EPS of $0.90 beat the consensus of $0.88.
Check out this <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/insights/analyst-ratings/25/03/44151455/deep-dive-into-fifth-third-bancorp-stock-analyst-perspectives-8-ratings">article by Benzinga</a> for eight analysts&#8217; insights on Fifth Third Bancorp.
PepsiCo, Restaurant Brands, and Fifth Third Bancorp are good choices for investors seeking reliable passive income. Their dividend yields of over 3% and long history of consistent hikes make them attractive to income-focused investors.
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Why PepsiCo, Restaurant Brands, And Fifth Third Bancorp Are Winners For Passive Income

Last week, J.P. Morgan analyst John Ivankoe hosted Bloomin&#8217; Brands Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLMN#NASDAQ">BLMN</a>), CAVA Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CAVA#NYSE">CAVA</a>), Brinker International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EAT#NYSE">EAT</a>), and Sweetgreen Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SG#NYSE">SG</a>) at the J.P. Morgan Las Vegas forum.
The analyst noted that the key takeaway from all four companies was the focus on doing &#8220;fewer things better&#8221; and consistently reinvesting in customer and employee experiences.
According to the analyst, stock volatility has created opportunities, with the current 10-year yield of 4.3% helping global QSR valuations, easing fears of a 5-6% yield.
The analyst recommended adding fresh investments in Dutch Bros Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BROS#NYSE">BROS</a>), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SBUX#NASDAQ">SBUX</a>), and CAVA.
While McDonald&#8217;s Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCD#NYSE">MCD</a>) and Restaurant Brands International Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) are fairly valued, slower U.S. data and international growth may present better buying opportunities, per the analyst.
Yum! Brands Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/YUM#NYSE">YUM</a>) exceeded expectations, benefiting from tech-fee recapture. Domino&#8217;s Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DPZ#NASDAQ">DPZ</a>) is fairly valued due to high expectations. It remains uncertain if the Middle East conflict&#8217;s impact will drive sustained sales growth or just a leveling out.
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The analyst upgraded the shares of CAVA to Overweight. CAVA has significant potential for expansion in the U.S., with impressive free cash flow generation and a strong pipeline of operational and brand initiatives to drive sales and profits.
The analyst reiterated a Neutral rating on Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CMG#NYSE">CMG</a>) and EAT due to high valuations and peak comps, but remain cautiously optimistic and would consider adding on volatility.
Overweight-rated SG and Krispy Kreme Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DNUT#NASDAQ">DNUT</a>) face sales and profit challenges, with SG offering near-term potential through seasonal menus and loyalty programs.
Following YUM&#8217;s Taco Bell analyst day on March 4, which highlighted the &#8220;Byte by YUM!&#8221; platform and improving KFC international trends, the analyst conducted a full model review and a valuation reset.
Projections include Taco Bell U.S. growing to 9,000 units by 2030 and Taco Bell International expanding to 2,000 units. The analyst assumes KFC international (excluding China) will increase to 22,300 units, while KFC China will reach 19,400.
Compared to previous expectations, only BROS, DPZ, and Taco Bell (YUM) are performing ahead, while high-growth brands like CAVA, SG, Chili&#8217;s, and SBUX are on track.
Larger QSR brands like MCD, BK (QSR), KFC/PH (YUM), and fast-casual chains such as CMG and Shake Shack Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHAK#NYSE">SHAK</a>) are underperforming. Casual dining brands like Darden Restaurants Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DRI#NYSE">DRI</a>) (Olive Garden), Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXRH#NASDAQ">TXRH</a>) (Roadhouse), and BLMN (Outback) are also tracking lower.
The U.S. restaurant labor market remains stable, with open positions at 6.2% of total employment, close to the 20-year average of 4.4%. The quits rate stands at 3.8%, near the historical average of 4.0%.
Consumer confidence has declined, with a focus on the &#8220;expectations&#8221; component, as cautious consumers become more selective in discretionary spending.
Large QSR brands, like MCD and DPZ, report weaker performance among low-income consumers. In contrast, high-growth brands like CAVA are seeing strong growth in the lowest income quartiles, suggesting a shift toward QSR trade-ups and growing brand awareness.
According to the analyst, sourcing talent and retention remain key to building strong brands and scaling operations, mainly during the rapid adoption of in/out-of-store tech.
Total industry supply growth has remained surprisingly resilient, up 12% from third-quarter FY18 to third-quarter FY24 for a CAGR of ~2%, opined the analyst.
So much attention is placed on future AI driven opportunities, but the reality is 40% of the industry sales are from the top 500 chains with a very large addressable market of another 60% are considered to be independents, the analyst noted.
Tariffs are less of an issue for this sector than other industries but related inflation could impact several daily consumer staple commodities including avocados, seasonal produce/fruit and coffee, said the analyst.
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Image via Shutterstock.

Upgrades

Reiteration

CAVA

Is Tariff An Issue For Restaurant Sector? J.P. Morgan Highlights Winners & Losers

JP Morgan analyst John Ivankoe maintains Restaurant Brands Intl (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QSR#NYSE">QSR</a>) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $80 to $78.

JP Morgan Maintains Overweight on Restaurant Brands Intl, Lowers Price Target to $78

Press Releases

Restaurant Brands International Announces Plan for Burger King® in China

Firehouse Subs® blazing a trail to Australia

Tims China Celebrates Sixth Anniversary: Classic Donuts Return with Chinese "Double Double" Upgrade

Tims China to Participate in Upcoming Conferences

Restaurant Brands International to Report First Quarter 2025 Results on May 8, 2025

Tims China Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Financial Results

Restaurant Brands International Inc. Reports First Quarter 2025 Results

RBI Recommends Shareholders Reject NYSB's "Mini-tender Offer"

Panera Brands Appoints José Cil as Chairman

Tims China Participates in Nation-wide "Weight Management Year" Campaign with New Hot & Healthy Power Bowls

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