Ultime notizie per iShares Silver Trust (ARCA:SLV)

The Trust seeks to reflect such performance before payment of the Trusts expenses and liabilities. It is not actively managed. The Trust does not engage in any activities designed to obtain a profit from, or to ameliorate losses caused by, changes in the price of silver.

iShares Silver Trust

SOLVAC SA by SOLVAC SA

ISHARES SILVER TRUST ETF

SILVER DOLLAR RES INC by Silver Dollar Resources Inc.

Silver Dollar Resources Inc

SILVERLAKE AXIS LTD ORD by Silverlake Axis, Ltd.

Silverlake Axis Ltd

Sylvamo Corp

SILVER MINES LTD SYDNEY by Silver Mines Ltd., Sydney

Silver Mines Ltd

ETRACS Silver Shares Covered Call ETNs due April 21, 2033

iShares MSCI Global Silver Miners Fund

SILVER ONE RESOURCES ORD by Silver One Resources Inc.

Silver One Resources Inc

SILVER STAR PROPERTIES by SILVER STAR PROPERTIES REIT, INC

Silver Star Properties REIT Inc

SILVER TIGER METALS INC by Silver Tiger Metals Inc.

Silver Tiger Metals Inc

Solvay SA

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-31_08h08_50.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Unrealistic Expectations</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-unrealistic-expectations-big-tech-earnings-msft-mc-10312024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of MSFT stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows when Microsoft earnings were released.</li>
<li>The chart shows MSFT stock initially spiked higher on earnings better than the consensus and whisper numbers.</li>
<li>The chart shows when MSFT stock dropped on comments of slower Azure growth during Microsoft's conference call.
<ul>
<li>Azure growth came at 34% vs. 31% consensus.</li>
<li>Azure growth is expected to slow to 31% &#8211; 32%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, investors are selling MSFT stock because their expectations were unrealistically high.&nbsp; Regarding Azure growth, investors are ignoring the following:
<ul>
<li>Azure growth should pick up in the second half of 2025.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Microsoft is capacity constrained.&nbsp; In due course, capacity will increase as supply of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) chips increases.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Generative AI contributed 12% to Azure.</li>
<li>Generative AI is expected to exceed a $10B run-rate in Q2 2025.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Arora Report's proprietary VUD indicator shows net supply of MSFT stock yesterday afternoon leading into and during the earnings release.</li>
<li>Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) reported great earnings.&nbsp; Investors are overlooking the great earnings and focusing on the high spending.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, Meta's capital expenditure is not out of line with its ambitious AI goals.
<ul>
<li>Meta anticipates 2024 capital expenditure to be $38B &#8211; $40B from prior $37B &#8211; $40B.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 216K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture remains strong.</li>
<li>The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.&nbsp; For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to personal income and personal spending. &nbsp;Personal spending is strong.&nbsp; Here are the details of the new personal income and spending data:
<ul>
<li>Personal income came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
<li>Personal spending came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>PCE is the Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation gauge.&nbsp; The core data is hotter than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>PCE came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; It is an important data point for the state of the jobs market ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.</li>
<li>Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) report earnings today after the close.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. &nbsp; Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), META, AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Market Summary

Markets

Tech

General

$BTC

AAPL

AMZN

GOOG

MSFT

NVDA

TSLA

Here Is Why Investors Do Not Like Good Earnings From Microsoft And Meta, Hotter Inflation Data

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-30_07h53_04.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Strong ADP Data</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-tech-earnings-nvidia-software-amd-mc-10302024">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AMD stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows the momo crowd buying AMD stock yesterday ahead of the earnings release.</li>
<li>The chart shows when earnings were released.</li>
<li>The chart shows the drop in AMD stock after earnings.</li>
<li>The chart shows the proprietary Arora Report VUD indicator changed to orange when earnings were released and continues to be orange today in the premarket.&nbsp; This indicates a net supply of AMD stock.</li>
<li>AMD reported earnings inline with the consensus and provided decent guidance.&nbsp; Why did the stock fall?&nbsp; The reason is that the whisper numbers for AI GPU guidance were approaching $6B.&nbsp; AMD guided above $5B for 2024 – this was inline with consensus.&nbsp; As we have been sharing with you, stocks move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers.</li>
<li>The reason that AMD was not able to meet the whisper numbers is that even though AMD chips for AI are excellent, AMD does not have the software and the whole system like NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).&nbsp; This limits AMD's market even though AMD is offering cheaper price points compared to Nvidia.&nbsp; AMD has recently bought a systems company in an attempt to catch up to NVDA.&nbsp; However, in The Arora Report analysis, it will take a long time for AMD to catch up with NVDA.&nbsp; Nvidia's CUDA is a parallel computing platform and programming model.&nbsp; Thousands of developers have been using CUDA to harness the power of AI for years.</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) reported earnings yesterday after the close.&nbsp; Alphabet earnings show data center growth.&nbsp; Data center growth means AI growth.&nbsp; However, in The Arora Report analysis, there is risk in GOOG stock because Google has over 90% of the search market.&nbsp; It is hard to see Google gaining share from here.&nbsp; Even a drop of a few percentage points will substantially hit earnings.</li>
<li>Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) earnings are ahead after the close.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, stocks will move based not only on the earnings but how well the companies are able to monetize AI.</li>
<li>The Arora Report shared early on that AI was real and a fortune was to be made from AI.&nbsp; We have also been sharing with you that it is important to develop deep knowledge because at times it will be treacherous.&nbsp; We have illustrated the treacherousness of following the momo crowd in AI with the example of Super Micro Computer Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>).&nbsp; When everyone was bullish and SMCI was trading above $120, The Arora Report call was that SMCI was worth only $44 &#8211; $48 at best.&nbsp; SMCI is falling about 33% to about $32 as of this writing in the premarket on the news that its independent auditor resigned.</li>
<li>Just released GDP data shows that the economy is strong even though the numbers are less than the consensus.&nbsp; GDP is a lagging indicator.&nbsp; The Arora Report system focuses on leading indicators.&nbsp; Here are the details of the GDP data:
<ul>
<li>Q3 GDP-Adv came at 2.8% vs. 3.0% consensus.</li>
<li>Q3 Chain Deflator-Adv came at 1.8% vs. 2.3% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Automatic Data Processing Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADP#NASDAQ">ADP</a>) data indicates a strong jobs picture.&nbsp; ADP is the largest payroll processor in the country and uses its data to give an advanced glimpse of the jobs picture ahead of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if the official jobs report also shows a strong jobs picture, it will decrease the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates at the next meeting.&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>ADP employment change came at 223K vs. 105K consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>ADP data is one more data point that has gone against the reason the Fed gave to cut interest rates by 50 bps in September.&nbsp; As we have been writing, almost all of the data has gone against the Fed's reasoning for cutting rates by 50 bps.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In a major setback, Eli Lilly And Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LLY#NYSE">LLY</a>) missed the earnings consensus.&nbsp; LLY stock has fallen about 10% as of this writing in the premarket.&nbsp; In sympathy, the stock of Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVO#NYSE">NVO</a>) is also falling.&nbsp; LLY and NVO stocks have been riding high on weight loss drugs.&nbsp; As full disclosure, LLY stock is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $318.45.&nbsp; As of this writing, LLY stock is trading at $807.</li>
<li>Jobless claims, personal income and spending, and &nbsp;Fed&#8217;s favorite inflation gauge PCE will all be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), MSFT, GOOG, and META.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Trading Ideas

SMCI

AMD Earnings Show Power Of Nvidia Software, ADP Data Defies Expectations

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-29_08h48_24.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Aggressive Retail Investor Bets</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-google-meta-search-competition-goog-mc-10292024">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of GOOG stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>This stock market has been highly concentrated in the Mag Seven stocks.</li>
<li>The stock market has been ignoring the risks in the Mag Seven.</li>
<li>Here is an illustration of the risks to the Mag Seven stocks.&nbsp; Google has dominated search with over 90% of the market share.</li>
<li>Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) Bing has only nominal market share.&nbsp; Microsoft has been gearing up to challenge Google with its Copilot.&nbsp; Many newcomers such as OpenAI and Perplexity are also going after Google.&nbsp; Now, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) the parent of Facebook and Instagram, plans to go after Google with its own web crawler.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows GOOG stock is nowhere near the high it made back in July.&nbsp; This has occurred at a time when S&amp;P 500 has made a new high (SPX).</li>
<li>The chart shows that GOOG stock has been struggling to even get into the lower resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that yesterday GOOG stock broke into the lower resistance zone above the lower band of the resistance zone.&nbsp; The chart shows the attempt failed.</li>
<li>The sum total of the foregoing for investors is that as dominant as the Mag Seven stocks are, there are challenges ahead for the Mag Seven.  It is important for investors to diversify beyond the Mag Seven stocks. The easiest way to properly construct your portfolio is to take a close look at The Arora Report Model Portfolios.</li>
<li>Alphabet reports earnings after the close.</li>
<li>Even though the election outcome is uncertain, retail investors are aggressively betting their money that Trump will be the winner.  Retail investors are rushing into the Trump trade. An example of a Trump stock is Trump Media &amp; Technology Group Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DJT#NASDAQ">DJT</a>). DJT stock is up about 16% as of this writing in the premarket after jumping 21.59% yesterday.  Another example of Trump trade is cryptos.</li>
<li>The momo crowd has been rushing into home builder stocks in anticipation of lower rates.&nbsp; However, as a member of The Arora Report, you knew ahead of everyone else that our call was that rates would rise.&nbsp; To the dismay of the momo crowd, the largest home builder in the U.S. DR Horton Inc (NYSE: DHI) sees FY25 revenues of $36B &#8211; $37.5B vs. $39.41B consensus.&nbsp; DHI is falling about 12% as of this writing in the premarket, causing huge losses for the momo crowd.&nbsp; DHI stock has been heavily promoted by momo gurus.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>Earnings from five Mag Seven stocks are ahead.&nbsp; Also ahead is important economic data.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.  Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is trading over $71,000 on aggressive retail investor bets that Trump will win.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Retail Investors Betting Money On A Trump Win, Meta To Challenge Google Search Dominance

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-28_08h29_14.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fate Of Nasdaq 100</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nasdaq-100-big-tech-earnings-israel-attack-qqq-mc-10282024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that QQQ is in the resistance zone.&nbsp; As a reference, S&amp;P 500 has broken out, but QQQ has lagged.</li>
<li>QQQ is dominated by the Magnificent Seven stocks.&nbsp; Five of the Magnificent Seven stocks are reporting earnings this week: Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>)</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that it is easy for QQQ to break out.&nbsp; All it needs is a little spark from big tech earnings.</li>
<li>This is the busiest earnings week.&nbsp; About one half of S&amp;P 500 companies are reporting this week.&nbsp; To date, about 75% of the companies have reported above consensus. This is slightly below the five year average of 77%.</li>
<li>The stock market is front running the election.&nbsp; The historical pattern is for the stock market to run up after the election.&nbsp; However, since the market has been front running the election this year, the historical pattern may not be as strong or may not even hold this year.</li>
<li>In the early trade this morning, there is aggressive momo crowd buying as the momentum from front running the election continues.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
Japan's ruling party has lost its parliamentary majority.
<ul>
<li>The yen is falling against the dollar.</li>
<li>Long term Japanese government bonds are falling.</li>
<li>Japanese stocks are rising on a weaker yen because Japan's economy is export oriented.</li>
</ul>
In The Arora Report analysis, the drop in yen may force the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) hand to intervene by buying yen or by raising interest rates.&nbsp; From a long term perspective, the yen is very undervalued.&nbsp;
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), AMZN, MSFT, GOOG, META, and AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Buying in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) continues on increasing prospects of a Trump win.&nbsp; Trump is the recipient of very large campaign contributions from the crypto industry.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Fate Of Nasdaq 100 Depends On Just Five Earnings This Week, Oil Falls On Israel Attack On Iran

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-25_07h57_51.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nasdaq Breakout?</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-tesla-earnings-tech-stocks-breakout-qqq-mc-10252024">click here</a> for a chart of Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows QQQ is in the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that QQQ moved up on giant Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) earnings.&nbsp; Please see yesterday's <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/tesla-241024/">Morning Capsule</a> for details on Tesla earnings.&nbsp; After earnings, Tesla added a giant gain of $150B to its market capitalization.</li>
<li>Bulls are hoping that giant Tesla earnings combined with a potential short squeeze today will cause QQQ to breakout above the resistance zone.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that while S&amp;P 500 has broken out, Nasdaq 100 has not.&nbsp; Lately, tech stocks have lagged.&nbsp; This is a reminder that it is important to diversify beyond tech stocks.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that QQQ is a long way from being overbought, and thus it will be easier to push it higher.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, next week there are important big tech earnings.&nbsp; These earnings will determine how QQQ behaves.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>This morning more buying is coming into the stock market after the release of durable goods orders.
<ul>
<li>Durable Orders came at -0.8% vs. -0.9% consensus.</li>
<li>Durable Orders Ex-Transport came at 0.4% vs. -0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET.&nbsp; This data may be market moving.&nbsp; Consumer sentiment is important because the consumer is 70% of the U.S. economy.</li>
<li>As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. &nbsp; Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Japan</h3>
A general election will be held in Japan this Sunday.&nbsp; There is a risk of the ruling party losing control of parliament.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, if the ruling party loses control of parliament, there is a fair probability that it will be negative for the yen and Japanese stocks.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
The European Central Bank's (ECB) Chief Economist is out saying that inflation in Europe is expected to reach the central bank's target in 2025.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Economics

Will Tesla's Giant Move Help NASDAQ Break Out?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-24_08h26_22.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Counterbalanced Crosscurrents</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-blowout-tesla-earnings-cybercab-tsla-mc-10242024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock.&nbsp; The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that prior to the release of Tesla earnings, TSLA stock was approaching the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>After the close, Tesla reported blowout earnings.</li>
<li>Tesla earnings are significantly better than the whisper numbers.&nbsp; Stocks move based on the difference between report numbers and whisper numbers.&nbsp; Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts provide privately to their best clients.&nbsp; These numbers are often different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption.</li>
<li>The most important number in Tesla earnings is ex-credits gross margin.&nbsp; Tesla handily beat the Street consensus of 15.1%.&nbsp; Tesla reported 17.1%.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after the earnings TSLA stock is approaching the top band of the resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows TSLA stock going quickly from very oversold to very overbought.&nbsp; Historically, such thrust in RSI leads to a higher stock price.</li>
<li>If the historical precedence holds and the overall stock market does not tank, the probability of TSLA stock reaching the top resistance zone shown on the chart is about 70%.&nbsp; As full disclosure, there is a new buy signal on TSLA in ZYX Buy.</li>
<li>Tesla CEO Elon Musk's comments about robotaxi deployment are adding to the optimism.&nbsp; Musk's comments about robotaxis are bringing in selling in Uber Technologies Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UBER#NYSE">UBER</a>) and LYFT Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LYFT#NASDAQ">LYFT</a>).</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) is the most important stock for this market.&nbsp; Yesterday, due to rising yields, the NVDA breakout was failing.</li>
<li>Tesla is one of the biggest customers of NVDA.&nbsp; Blowout earnings from TSLA are bringing in buying to NVDA stock.&nbsp; As of this writing in the premarket, NVDA has moved above the key $140 level.</li>
<li>Markets always have crosscurrents.&nbsp; We have been sharing with you that yields are rising.&nbsp; In yesterday's Morning Capsule we wrote,</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Ten year Treasury yield has reached 4.24% as of this writing in the premarket.&nbsp; As we wrote yesterday, when the yield crosses 4.25%, it will start catching smart money&#8217;s attention.&nbsp; This is exactly what is happening today, and it is bringing selling into the stock market.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>Yesterday, the yield on 10 year Treasuries reached 4.258% at its high.&nbsp; This brought selling into the stock market.</li>
<li>We have also been sharing with you in advance that for the stock market to sustain at this level earnings will have to be very robust. Tesla earnings are counterbalancing rising yields.&nbsp;</li>
<li>20 year Treasury bond reopening auction results are poor, indicating less demand than expected.&nbsp; Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>$13B 20 year Treasury bond reopening</li>
<li>High yield: 4.590% (When-Issued: 4.574%)</li>
<li>Bid-to-cover: 2.59</li>
<li>Indirect bid: 67.9%</li>
<li>Direct bid: 17.6%</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 227K vs. 246K consensus.&nbsp; This indicates that the jobs picture is stronger than expected.&nbsp; This data is an additional data point that shows the Fed was overly aggressive when the Fed spiked the punch bowl with the 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Initial jobless claims is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive <a href="https://thearorareport.com/ALLOCATION%2BMODELS.htm">ZYX Asset Allocation Model</a> with inputs in <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-4/">ten categories</a>.&nbsp; In plain English, adaptiveness means that the model changes itself with market conditions.&nbsp; Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/unique-zyx-asset-allocation-3/">click here</a> to see how this is achieved.&nbsp; One of the reasons behind The Arora Report's unrivaled performance in both bull and bear markets is the adaptiveness of the model.&nbsp; Most models on Wall Street are static.&nbsp; They work for a while and then stop working when market conditions change.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Europe</h3>
European stocks are seeing buying on better than expected manufacturing PMI.
<ul>
<li>Flash Manufacturing PMI came at 45.9 vs. 45.1 consensus.</li>
<li>Flash Services PMI came at 51.2 vs. 51.4 consensus.</li>
</ul>
Buying in European stocks is bringing positive sentiment to the U.S. stock market in the early trade.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), NVDA, and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on positive sentiment created by Tesla earnings.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

LYFT

UBER

Sentiment From Tesla Earnings Counterbalances Rising Yields, Good For Nvidia

As global tensions and market uncertainty continue to escalate, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/silver-price-forecast-short-long-term-silver-price-prediction">silver prices are experiencing </a>a significant rise. This surge has resulted in notable gains for silver-linked ETFs in recent trading sessions.
What Happened: According to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40457722/gold-is-getting-its-moment-in-the-sun-and-experts-say-the-record-high-prices-could-">Benzinga Pro</a> on Thursday several silver-linked ETFs have benefited from this surge. abrdn Physical Silver Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SIVR#NYSE">SIVR</a>) is up 1.28% in the premarket, with a year-to-date return of over 42.01%. iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) is up 1.27% in the premarket, boasting a year-to-date return of over 41.85%. abrdn Physical Precious Metals Basket Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLTR#NYSE">GLTR</a>) is up 1.48% in the premarket, with a year-to-date return of over 30.29%.
These ETFs aim to reflect the performance of silver prices, less their expenses. They hold physical silver bullion, providing investors with exposure to silver price movements without the need to physically own and store the metal.
The silver prices have been making substantial gains due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/10/41379867/european-central-bank-lowers-interest-rates-again-first-back-to-back-cuts-in-13-years">interest rate cuts </a>by the European Central Bank (ECB), and uncertainty surrounding the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eurozone/24/10/41513261/us-dollar-on-the-rise-key-levels-to-watch-ahead-of-the-elections">upcoming U.S. election</a>. These factors have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/long-ideas/24/10/41426422/jim-cramer-says-this-energy-stock-is-a-buy-it-can-make-money-even-at-these-levels?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Jim Cramer Says This Energy Stock Is A Buy: &#8216;It Can Make Money Even At These Levels&#8217;</a>
Comex silver prices have remained above $34.43 per ounce, marking their highest levels in 12 years. This month, Comex Silver has seen an 11% increase, its largest monthly gain since May 2024. Year-to-date, silver prices have risen by 46%, outpacing gold&#8217;s 33.3% rise.
Why It Matters: The rally in silver prices came after gold reached an all-time high with experts saying that gold &#8216;is getting its moment in the Sun.&#8217; <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40457722/gold-is-getting-its-moment-in-the-sun-and-experts-say-the-record-high-prices-could-">Gold earlier this year</a> outperformed Bitcoin, suggesting that cryptocurrencies may not be the effective hedge against lower interest rates, a declining dollar, and financial instability that Bitcoin proponents had anticipated. 
Gold and silver are often viewed as a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/08/40419054/gold-prices-hit-all-time-highs-of-2-500-as-traders-jump-on-rate-cut-train-mining-stocks-on-the-mov">safe-haven investment</a> in times of economic and political uncertainty. The precious metal can also serve as a hedge against declines in the value of the U.S. dollar.
Meanwhile, the unexpected surge has put five U.S. banks at risk of substantial financial losses due to their large short positions in the metal. This amounts to approximately 707.9 million ounces, nearly equaling a year&#8217;s global silver production. With silver prices increasing by $1.84 per ounce, these short positions are now estimated to be underwater by $1.3 billion.
Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/10/41459673/whats-going-on-with-trump-media-technology-stock-today?itm_source=parsely-api" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">What&#8217;s Going On With Trump Media &amp; Technology Stock Today?</a>
Photo courtesy: Unsplash
This content was partially produced with the help of&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/author/benzinga-neuro" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Neuro</a>&nbsp;and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

News

Commodities

ETFs

ETFS Physical Precious Metal Basket Shares

GLTR

SIVR

After Gold's 'Moment In The Sun,' It's Now Silver's Turn: These ETFs Linked To The Shiny Metal Are Rising In Thursday's Pre Market

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-23_08h42_27.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Silver And Dollar Contradiction</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-silver-breakout-slv-mc-10232024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.</li>
<li>The chart shows that silver has broken out from a long base.</li>
<li>The chart shows an Arora signal for a SLV trade around position. As full disclosure, The Arora Report gave a signal to exit the SLV trade around position this morning.&nbsp; A trade around position is a billionaire and hedge fund technique that can dramatically increase profits and reduce risks.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the prior resistance zone has now become the support zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows the trader magnet.&nbsp; Note the price of the trader magnet.&nbsp; This indicates that if the momentum builds, there may be very large gains ahead.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the trader magnet is exactly the point where The Arora Report gave a sell signal in 2011.</li>
<li>The Arora call to sell silver came exactly on the same day that silver topped. At that time, almost everyone was extremely bullish on silver, and analysts were given a target of $100. The Arora call was an extreme contrary call that was later proven spot on. On the same day that silver topped, there was also an Arora call to short sell silver with a target of a 33% drop in a matter of weeks.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the silver rally in 2020 failed.&nbsp; The reason the rally failed was that it was driven almost entirely by two factors:
<ul>
<li>Meme crowd</li>
<li>Short squeeze</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a fair probability of another short squeeze and another meme crowd run.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The chart shows The Arora Report call to backup the truck and buy silver just before silver took off in 2011.&nbsp; The Arora backup the truck and buy signal was given when silver futures were in the $17 range.&nbsp; Silver futures quickly shot up to $50 when the sell signal was given.</li>
<li>The Arora Report buy zones change. The chart shows one of the more recent silver Arora buy zones.</li>
<li>Demand for the dollar is surging on the prospect of Trump being elected.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, there is an important contradiction.&nbsp; Silver is priced in dollars.&nbsp; Normally, when the dollar demand goes up, the price of silver falls.&nbsp; Recently, the price of silver has been rising along with demand for the dollar – this is defying common sense.&nbsp; The reason is that the momo crowd is so drunk on the momentum and the breakout that they are oblivious to the macro that impacts silver.&nbsp; It is important that investors do a 360 degree analysis, and not just rely on momentum.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, there is a good probability of selling coming into silver right around here.</li>
<li>Ten year Treasury yield has reached 4.24% as of this writing in the premarket.&nbsp; As we shared with readers yesterday, when the yield crosses 4.25%, it will start catching smart money's attention.&nbsp; This is exactly what is happening today, and it is bringing selling into the stock market.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that 1995 was the last time yields rose after the Fed cut interest rates.&nbsp; At that time, Alan Greenspan was the Fed chair.&nbsp; There are parallels to what is happening now.</li>
<li>Investors should also note that yesterday, volume in the stock market was very low.&nbsp; This indicates a lack of conviction in stocks running up from here even though the talk is that S&amp;P 500 is about to hit 6000.&nbsp; It is more important for investors to pay attention to the walk, not the talk. It is common for large investors to pump up the stock market in the media only to sell their positions into the strength.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Attention To Silver Breakout – Dollar Demand Surges On Trump Election Prospects

Wall Street traded lower for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as investor sentiment turned cautious with the U.S. presidential election <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/2024-elections">just two weeks away. </a>
Concerns over U.S. fiscal policies and potential shifts in economic direction fueled the pause in risk-taking.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its U.S. growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025 in the latest World Economic Outlook, while also flagging rising concerns about the country's debt trajectory, warning that with current large fiscal deficits, &#8220;the U.S. public debt is not stabilized.&#8221;
Commodities were the standout performers on Tuesday, with both metals and energy experiencing notable gains.
Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>), rose 0.8%, pushing further into record territory. This increase extended its year-to-date performance to 34%, positioning gold for its strongest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/24/10/41455678/gold-on-track-for-best-year-since-1979-veteran-investor-says-sell-bonds-buy-gold">annual gain since 1979.</a> Gold miners, as represented by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), rallied for the ninth consecutive session, hitting their highest levels in over four years.
Silver, tracked by the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>), surged 2.8%, reaching levels not seen since October 2012.
Oil prices rallied nearly 3%, building on a 2% surge from Monday. U.S. Treasury yields ticked up modestly on Tuesday following Monday's spike, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.21%.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), climbed past the 104 mark, continuing its steady ascent and eyeing a fourth consecutive week of gains.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) fell 0.5%, dipping to around $67,000 and marking its second consecutive day of declines.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In US Major Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %change</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,907.57</td>
<td>-0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,840.39</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,291.15</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,228.60</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 12:35 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent102224&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> data:
<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 0.3% to $581.79.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>)&nbsp;inched 0.1% lower to $429.14.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy Invesco QQQ Trust Series (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) fell 0.4% to $493.29.</li>
<li>The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.5% $221.04.</li>
<li>The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, up 0.6%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) lagged, down 1.1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Performers</h3>
General Motors Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) surged 9%, on track for its strongest session in nearly a year, after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings and announcing an additional $5 billion share buyback program extending into next year.
Other stocks reacting to earnings include: 
<ul>
<li>Southern Copper Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SCCO#NYSE">SCCO</a>), up 1.5%</li>
<li>Nucor Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>), down 6%</li>
<li>W.R. Berkley Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WRB#NYSE">WRB</a>), down 4.6%</li>
<li>Zion Bancorp. N.A. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZION#NASDAQ">ZION</a>), up 6.8%</li>
<li>Wintrust Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WTFC#NASDAQ">WTFC</a>), up 1.6%</li>
<li>Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PM#NYSE">PM</a>), up 8.8%</li>
<li>GE Aerospace (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>), down over 8%</li>
<li>Danaher Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DHR#NYSE">DHR</a>), down 3%</li>
<li>Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VZ#NYSE">VZ</a>), down 4.4%</li>
<li>RTX Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RTX#NYSE">RTX</a>), down 0.4%</li>
<li>Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>), down 5.8%</li>
<li>Fiserv Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FI#NYSE">FI</a>), down 0.4%</li>
<li>Moodys Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MCO#NYSE">MCO</a>) down 4.5%</li>
<li>3M Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MMM#NYSE">MMM</a>), down 0.9%</li>
<li>Freeport-McMoran Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FCX#NYSE">FCX</a>), up 1.4%</li>
<li>Kimberly-Clark Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KMB#NYSE">KMB</a>), down 4%</li>
<li>PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PHM#NYSE">PHM</a>), down 5.7%</li>
</ul>
Large-cap companies reporting earnings after the close include Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TXN#NASDAQ">TXN</a>), Baker Hughes Co. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKR#NASDAQ">BKR</a>), Seagate Technology Holdings PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STX#NASDAQ">STX</a>), Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PKG#NYSE">PKG</a>), Manhattan Associates Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MANH#NASDAQ">MANH</a>), East West Bancorp. Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EWBC#NASDAQ">EWBC</a>) and Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ENPH#NASDAQ">ENPH</a>)
Now Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/10/41455013/how-us-elections-could-impact-us-dollar-goldman-sachs-expects-greenback-will-remain-stronger-for-lon">How US Elections Could Impact US Dollar: Goldman Sachs Expects Greenback Will Remain &#8216;Stronger For Longer&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Earnings

Equities

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Sector ETFs

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

New ETFs

Currency ETFs

Small Cap

ENPH

EWBC

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

MANH

SCCO

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

WTFC

ZION

Stocks Fall, GM Eyes Best Day In A Year, Gold Breaks Records, Silver Hits 12-Year Highs: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Macro Economic Events

WIIM

Gold and silver are trading higher. Precious metals have recently gained on macro uncertainty amid Middle East conflict and the upcoming US presidential election.

KVUE

SAVE

Benzinga Market Summary: Gold And Silver Continue Higher On Macro Uncertainty, Starboard Reportedly Takes Stake In Kenvue, Spirit Airlines Extends Debt Deadlines, China Cuts Loan Prime Rate

<ul>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>MCD</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>AI</li>
<li>LOT</li>
<li>UPS</li>
<li>DJT</li>
<li>AAPL</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>SLV</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of October 21, 2024 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-18_08h48_41.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">No Landing</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-us-economy-no-landing-axp-mc-10182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of American Express Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AXP#NYSE">AXP</a>).
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-nvidia-breakout-potential-nvda-mc-10182024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The charts of AXP and NVDA stocks are being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>American Express CEO Stephen Squeri said that he sees "no landing" for the U.S. economy. In plain English, no landing means the economy continues to grow without a major slowdown. American Express has about 55M cardholders in the U.S. Spending on these cards provides a good data point.</li>
<li>American Express CEO's statement is another data point showing that the Fed spiked the punch with the 50 bps interest rate cut.</li>
<li>The AXP chart shows a strong trendline.</li>
<li>The AXP chart shows an RSI divergence. In plain English this means that as the price has moved higher, RSI is showing lower peaks. This indicates a lack of internal momentum. RSI divergence often leads to a pullback.</li>
<li>AXP reported earnings better than the consensus but less than whisper numbers.</li>
<li>The AXP chart shows that after spiking higher, AXP stock is pulling back.</li>
<li>In the big picture, the data points from American Express earnings are important because they reflect 55M affluent consumers.</li>
<li>The NVDA chart shows that NVDA stock moved higher in the resistance zone after blowout earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>). TSM manufactures Nvidia's AI chips. TSM indicated the demand for AI chips is strong.</li>
<li>The NVDA chart shows the resistance proved to be too strong for NVDA stock to breakout yesterday.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should carefully watch to see if NVDA stock breaks out above the resistance zone. If NVDA breaks out above the resistance zone, it would be positive for the entire stock market, especially AI stocks. On the other hand, if this NVDA rally fails, it will be a negative for the entire stock market.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Housing Starts</h3>
Housing starts came roughly in line but building permits dropped. Building permits are a leading indicator.  Investors should focus on leading indicators. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Housing starts came at 1.354M vs. 1.350M consensus.</li>
<li>Building permits came at 1.428M vs. 1.455M consensus.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
China Q3 GDP came at 0.9% quarter-over-quarter vs. 1.0% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, even though China's GDP is slightly weaker than expected, it is not of concern because GDP is a lagging indicator. New stimulus measures that we have been writing about are designed to lift GDP going forward. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

American Express CEO Sees "No Landing," Watch Nvidia For A Breakout

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-17_08h26_38.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia May Be Next</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-ai-chip-manufacturer-nvidia-consumer-splurges-tsm-mc-10172024">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. Co. Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSM stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>TSM is the largest semiconductor foundry in the world for advanced semiconductors. TSM manufactures chips for the likes of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>).</li>
<li>The chart shows the support/resistance zone. This was previously the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSM has broken out in the early trade after reporting earnings. If the breakout sustains, this zone will become the support zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that there is room for the stock to run.</li>
<li>Going into earnings, whisper numbers for TSM were creeping up above the consensus. Whisper numbers are numbers that analysts privately provide to their best clients. Whisper numbers are often different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption. Stocks move based on the difference between whisper numbers and the reported numbers. TSM reported numbers better than the whisper numbers.</li>
<li>Here is the most important question for prudent investors: How do you reconcile ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ: ASML) earnings (please see <a href="https://blog.thearorareport.com/nvidia-101624/">yesterday's Morning Capsule</a>) with TSM earnings? The answer is that TSM is more leveraged to AI, including Nvidia. This is the reason that The Arora Report gave a signal for a trade around position on NVDA stock earlier for aggressive investors.  The trade around position is separate and distinct from the core NVDA position that is long from $12.55.  </li>
<li>The consumer is splurging again after a brief pullback. Prudent investors pay attention to consumers because the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Here is the latest retail sales data.
<ul>
<li>Headline retail sales came at 0.4% vs.-0.2% consensus.</li>
<li>Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.5% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Initial jobless claims came at 241K vs. 270K consensus.</li>
<li>Bonds are falling on the strong economic data.</li>
<li>The retail sales data and the jobless claims data adds to the other data that shows the Fed cut spiked the punch with the 50 bps interest rate cut.
<ul>
<li>Before the Fed rate cut, we shared with you in The Arora Report analysis that the data justified a 25 bps rate cut.&nbsp; The latest data shows that The Arora Report call was spot on, just like almost all Arora calls related to the Fed and the economy over the last 17 years.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The Fed's job is to maintain stability and not to spike the punch. As a matter of fact, the Fed's job is to take the punch bowl away.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the reason that the stock market has not yet experienced the usual seasonal downturn in September and October is that the Fed spiked the punch in going against the hard data.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>In earnings of note, Elevance Health Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ELV#NYSE">ELV</a>), one of the largest licensee of Blue Cross Blue Shield, reported worse than expected earnings. The stock is down about 15% as of this writing in the premarket. As a reminder, previously, the nation's largest healthcare insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) also reported rising medical costs.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying on optimism that Trump will be elected.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

streetTRACKS Dow Jones U.S. Large Cap Value Index Fund

AI Chip Manufacturer Breaks Out – Nvidia May Be Next, Consumer Splurges, Fed Spiked The Punch

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-16_08h22_51.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Stock Market Direction</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-king-nvidia-technicals-asml-earnings-nvda-mc-10162024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that after a strong rally NVDA stock entered the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The rally was triggered by Jensen Huang's comment that the demand for Blackwell was insane.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA was not able to penetrate the resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows when NVDA started backing off from the resistance zone, aggressive selling came in.</li>
<li>The chart shows that NVDA is now below the bottom band of the resistance zone but still considerably above the mini support zone shown on the chart.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that NVDA stock had become extremely overbought. Overbought stocks tend to pullback. This is exactly what happened. The chart shows the pullback has relieved the extreme overbought condition.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the volume on the pullback was not low. This indicates that investors should not dismiss this pullback.</li>
<li>In addition to the technical reason for the pullback, there is a fundamental reason. The fundamental reason is earnings from Dutch semiconductor equipment company ASML Holding NV (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ASML#NASDAQ">ASML</a>). ASML has an almost monopoly on extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment needed for manufacturing Nvidia's chips. ASML stock fell 16% on the heaviest volume in 10 years. The big disappointment in ASML earnings was that ASML is forecasting 2025 sales of 30B &#8211; 35B euros vs. consensus of 35.8B euros.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the reaction in NVDA stock to ASML's forecast is an overreaction.  ASML is seeing strong AI demand. The weakness is from other chip segments.  </li>
<li>It is important to note that the demand for Blackwell is so strong that Nvidia is fully booked for the next 12 months.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>To a large degree, what happens to NVDA next will determine the fate of tech stocks until big tech earnings come along.&nbsp; If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be positive not only for tech stocks but for the entire stock market.</li>
<li>Most semiconductor stocks have been hit. Semiconductor bears are questioning the staying power of the semiconductor rally.</li>
<li>Among earnings of note, Morgan Stanley (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MS#NYSE">MS</a>) reported earnings better than the consensus. MS earnings are important because MS has large investment banking, trading, and wealth management businesses. Previously Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>), JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>), and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) also reported good earnings. This indicates that the fundamentals of the financial sector are strong. As most investors are focused on tech, prudent investors should have some diversification in the financial sector.  As full disclosure, JPM and BAC are in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. Bank ETF SPDR S&amp;P Bank ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KBE#NYSE">KBE</a>) is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you the rising yields on long bonds. Now, it is spilling into mortgage rates. Mortgage rates hit the highest since August.  Mortgage refinancing demand fell 26% week-to-week. Refinancing is very sensitive to interest rates.</li>
<li>Yesterday, we shared with you that Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) was going nuclear to obtain power for AI data centers.&nbsp; Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) is now signing an agreement with Dominion Energy Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/D#NYSE">D</a>) to explore developing a small modular reactor near North Anna nuclear station.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">U.K.</h3>
In the U.K., new data shows that inflation is running below 2% for the first time since 2021.
<ul>
<li>CPI came at 0.0% month-over-month vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>CPI came at 1.7% year-over-year vs. 1.9% consensus.</li>
</ul>
Historically, the U.K. has preceded the U.S. by several months. For this reason, it is important to pay attention to U.K. economic data.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) bulls are excited.&nbsp; Bitcoin gurus are proclaiming that this time bitcoin is going to breakout and rocket to $100K.&nbsp; Bitcoin is trading above $67K as of this writing.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

ASML

King Nvidia Technicals Will Determine The Stock Market Direction — Overreaction To ASML Earnings

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-15_08h50_10.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Google Goes Nuclear</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-israeli-restraint-google-nuclear-power-ai-nne-mc-10152024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Nano Nuclear Energy Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NNE#NASDAQ">NNE</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NNE is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>NNE is a micro reactor company.</li>
<li>The trendline on the chart shows a steady uptrend since last month on the excitement about the use of nuclear power for AI data centers.</li>
<li>As full disclosure, there is a position in NNE in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Change Alert.</li>
<li>Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) has decided on nuclear power for AI data centers. Most importantly, Google has signed a Master Plant Development Agreement for smart modular reactors with Kairos Power. The first plant will be deployed by 2030.</li>
<li>The Google agreement will likely build more excitement for nuclear power. The Arora Report has previously mentioned three conventional nuclear plant operators: Constellation Energy Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CEG#NASDAQ">CEG</a>), Vistra Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VST#NYSE">VST</a>), and Public Service Enterprise Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PEG#NYSE">PEG</a>). There are two publicly traded smart modular reactors of note – Nuscale Power Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMR#NYSE">SMR</a>) and Oklo Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OKLO#NYSE">OKLO</a>).</li>
<li>There are reports Israel has told the U.S. that Israel will not attack Iran's nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure. This development is impacting the markets in the following ways:
<ul>
<li>Buying in stocks</li>
<li>Selling in volatility index (VIX) futures</li>
<li>Selling in the dollar</li>
<li>Selling in oil</li>
<li>Selling in gold and silver</li>
<li>As full disclosure, The Arora Report anticipated this scenario as the highest probability scenario and gave the following signals. Readers of The Arora Report got ahead of the curve when they received a signal to take partial profits on gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Allocation as well as silver ETF SLV and gold miner Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Earnings season is in full swing.
<ul>
<li>Among important earnings of note, Bank of America Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAC#NYSE">BAC</a>) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) reported earnings better than the consensus. As full disclosure, BAC is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and is long from $7.69. </li>
<li>Johnson &amp; Johnson (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JNJ#NYSE">JNJ</a>) reported lower than expected earnings.</li>
<li>The nation's largest health insurer UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) is lowering its outlook due to rising medical costs.</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), GOOG, Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

OKLO

Google Goes Nuclear For AI Power, Israeli Restraint Impacts Stocks, Gold, And Oil

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-14_08h36_20.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bonds Defy Expectations</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-bonds-earnings-season-tlt-mc-10142024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>Long bonds are defying expectations in the market.</li>
<li>The chart shows when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps. At that time, TLT had shown a technical breakout. The expectations were for TLT to go higher.</li>
<li>The chart shows the contrary Arora call that TLT would likely go down.</li>
<li>We recently wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">In The Arora Report analysis, if it was not for the Middle East conflict escalation, TLT would have already fallen into the top support zone.
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that The Arora Report call has been spot on.&nbsp; TLT has now hit the top band of the support zone.</li>
<li>What happens next to long bonds will come down to the election. The prevailing consensus is that there will be a divided government. A divided government will be good for both stock and bond markets. If one party sweeps, there will be a high probability of TLT hitting the lower support zone.</li>
<li>Bonds offer competition to stocks. Rising yields also lower PEs. For the time being, the stock market is drunk on the momentum generated by the 50 bps cut instead of a 25 bps cut.  When the momentum wanes, the stock market will start paying attention to rising yields.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should note that so far the data has not been supportive of the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 50 bps.</li>
<li>Earnings season is in full swing. Earnings season will be a tell for AI. Undoubtedly, almost every company will hype AI.  In the prior quarters, the stock of almost every company that mentioned AI ran up. Here is the key question: Will the stocks run again just on the mention of AI or will the market look for hard data regarding AI?</li>
<li>After the weekend pump, the momo crowd buying in stocks in the early trade is aggressive.</li>
<li>Traders are fixated on S&amp;P 6000 as the magnet.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
In a Saturday briefing, China did not offer new economic stimulus China also did not provide specific numbers as most investors had expected.
<ul>
<li>Foreign investors are disappointed and selling Chinese stocks.</li>
<li>Local investors are satisfied and buying Chinese stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing buying for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>Trump has moved up in the polls. Trump is considered more bitcoin friendly.</li>
<li>Foreign speculators who are selling Chinese stocks are putting the money in bitcoin.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Bonds

iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Bonds Defy Expectations, Earnings Season Will Be A Tell For AI

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-11_09h06_57.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Opportunities In Humanoid Robots</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-inflation-humanoid-robots-cybercab-tesla-tsla-mc-10112024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSLA stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock ran up in anticipation of the Cybercab event, dubbed by Tesla CEO Elon Musk as We, Robot.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock hit the top resistance zone and backed off.</li>
<li>The chart shows a big drop in TSLA stock after the much hyped Cybercab event.</li>
<li>The chart shows that TSLA stock has now fallen in the premarket, significantly below the lower resistance zone.</li>
<li>RSI on the chart shows that TSLA stock is now oversold.</li>
<li>From a technical perspective, the combination of the foregoing is a negative.</li>
<li>In spite of the sell the news reaction, Musk's presentation was impressive.</li>
<li>In The Arora Report analysis, the global revenue opportunity for robotaxis is about $2T, 15 years from now. Tesla is well positioned to capture a meaningful portion of the $2T market.</li>
<li>Tesla bulls are delighted by the details given in Musk's presentation. However, Tesla bears are highly critical that there were not enough details.</li>
<li>Musk showed off humanoid robots dancing and pouring drinks. Musk said that humanoid robots may be the biggest product ever. In The Arora Report analysis, we agree with Musk. Of note, is that Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) is hard at work to produce humanoid robots. </li>
<li>The reaction to Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) Advancing AI event has also been to sell the news. AMD bears point to AMD not naming new customers.</li>
<li>Inflation at the producer level came inline with expectations. Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Earnings season has started. The most important earnings are from the country's largest bank, JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JPM#NYSE">JPM</a>).  JPM earnings are inline with the whisper numbers. As full disclosure, JPM is in The Arora Report&#8217;s ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long form $34.14.</li>
<li>University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and AAPL.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Humanoid Robots May Be Biggest Product Ever, Sell The News On Tesla's We, Robot And AMD's AI Event

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-10_09h03_46.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Hotter Inflation</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-hotter-inflation-jobless-claims-spy-mc-10102024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&amp;P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>The chart shows that the stock market made a new high and is above the support/resistance zone.</li>
<li>The chart shows there is selling this morning after the release of economic data.</li>
<li>Most troubling for the stock market is that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came hotter than expected. Of course, as a member of The Arora Report, it is not a surprise to you – we have been writing that inflation may turn out to be stickier compared to what the stock market expects.  The reason there is selling on the release of the CPI data is that it is a surprise to the market as whisper numbers were inline with the consensus.  Here are the details:
<ul>
<li>Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.</li>
<li>Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>On this CPI data, the market would have been down significantly more than what is shown on the chart because the blow from the hot CPI data is being cushioned by newly released jobless claims data.&nbsp; Initial jobless claims came at 258K vs. 229K consensus.&nbsp; The sharp rise in initial claims goes against the narrative that momo gurus have been using to persuade investors to buy stocks.&nbsp; However, temporarily in the early trade, investors are taking comfort in higher jobless claims believing that it will give ammunition to the Fed to continue cutting rates even if inflation is higher.</li>
<li>On September 26, we wrote:</li>
</ul>
<blockquote class="wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow">Did the Fed make a mistake with the 50 bps cut?
</blockquote>
<ul>
<li>We have been sharing with you the economic data that indicates the Fed may have made a mistake. In the latest news, we are now finding out that several FOMC members were not in favor of a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; It appears that Powell had to twist arms to push through a 50 bps rate cut.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
<ul>
<li>FOMC minutes show that there was push back from several members against a 50 bps cut.&nbsp; Several members favored a 25 bps cut.&nbsp; In The Arora Report analysis, based on FOMC minutes, Powell will have difficulty with further large cuts unless economic data changes.&nbsp; This is not discounted in the stock market, and thus, is a risk.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Later today there is a Treasury auction.&nbsp; The auction results may move the market.</li>
<li>We have been sharing with you that NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) has been experiencing a strong rally due to its AI Summit.  At a time when the expectations in the stock market are that NVDA stock will move to the resistance zone around $140, after the release of the CPI data, there is selling in NVDA stock. Selling in NVDA stock is bleeding into other AI stocks in the early trade.</li>
<li>The momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip in the early trade. The momo crowd is especially buying AI stocks.</li>
<li>Of note is today is Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) robotaxi day. TSLA stock has run up in anticipation of Tesla's CEO Elon Musk saying great things about robotaxis and perhaps robotics and a lower priced Tesla model. Keep a close eye on TSLA stock.  If what Musk says exceeds expectations, expect TSLA stock to rally towards $300.  On the other hand, if what Musk says is inline with or less than expectations, expect a selloff in TSLA stock.  Whatever happens to TSLA stock will bleed into other AI stocks.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Hotter Inflation But Jobless Claims Cushion The Blow – Selling In Nvidia And AI Stocks

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large is-resized"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/2024-10-09_09h31_42.png" alt="" style="width:624px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Google Breakup?</h3>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/chart-analysis-stock-market-google-breakup-nvidia-ai-summit-goog-mc-10092024">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>This article is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of GOOG stock is being used to illustrate the point.</li>
<li>One of the concerns about big tech is that big tech has profited from monopolistic practices, and as such, the government will move against big tech. So far, these concerns have been limited to smart money. The momo crowd has been oblivious and aggressively buying big tech, running the stocks up higher and higher.  The reason is that the momo crowd does not do much analysis. The momo crowd is driven by momentum and hopium.</li>
<li>The news is that the Department of Justice (DOJ), in a court filing, has put the breakup of Google on the table.&nbsp; Previously, the judge had ruled that Google is a monopolist and established its monopoly with illegal practices.</li>
<li>The chart shows that there has not been much of a reaction to the news.</li>
<li>The chart shows that previously there was some downward reaction to the news that a judge ordered Google to open the app store to competition.</li>
<li>Google faces a separate lawsuit threatening the breakup of its online advertising business.</li>
<li>The chart shows that volume was low on the threat of a breakup and also on the order to open the app store. This indicates that so far the stock market does not believe the news will harm Google. This is for two reasons:
<ul>
<li>There is flawed analysis in the market that the sum of the parts is more than the current stock price. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason that the belief in the stock market is wrong is because the parts as separate companies will be restricted from continuing illegal monopolistic practices.</li>
<li>The election is only a few weeks away. The belief in the stock market is that both Trump and Harris will be friendly to big tech.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) stock has staged a strong move leading to and in response to its AI Summit. However, the resistance zone is around $140, only $6 away. If NVDA stock breaks above the resistance zone, it will be a big positive for the stock market, especially AI stocks. On the other hand, if this rally fails to break above the resistance zone, it will be a negative.</li>
<li>There are rumors of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. Hezbollah has publicly endorsed ceasefire efforts. This is leading to selling in oil, gold, and Treasuries.</li>
<li>FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">China</h3>
Stocks in China experienced another sell-off. More stimulus news is expected on Saturday.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h3>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>), Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), and GOOG.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h3>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>).
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h3>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is range bound.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Protection Band And What To Do Now</h3>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h3>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

Google Breakup On The Table, Nvidia AI Summit Moves The Stock But Resistance Ahead

Today we saw one of those days that often follow on a precious metals futures option expiration.

Stocks And Precious Metals Charts - Reasonable Support Level

Growing potential for Trump presidency likely helping lift gold to new highs, analyst says

Today gold futures crossed the $2,800 level for the first time in history.

Gold Price Breaks $2,800 Ahead Of Election And Debt Ceiling Deadline

I own a lot of physical gold and silver, and I had planned to amass a VERY large position in PSLV. This morning was the last straw. As thrilled as I am about Silver's prospects, I am not TOUCHING this stuff again until after the election.

Stepping Back From Silver Until The Election Dust Settles

Silver prices (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $33.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Falls To Near $33.50 Despite Increased Safe-Haven Demand

Gold continued its slow advance to new record prices while other risk assets cooled off after US Advance GDP data undershot expectations.

Forex Today: Gold Breaks To New Record High; US GDP Data Disappoints

Two new charts showing Gold & Silver's performance after Gold breaks to a new all-time high.

How Gold And Silver Perform After Record High Gold Prices

A discussion about the dynamics of the gold and silver markets in relation to economic indicators such as the U.S. dollar, bond yields, and macroeconomic events.

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