ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (ARCA: TBT)

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The Fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the Daily Target. The Index is designed to measure the performance of U.S. dollar denominated sovereign debt publicly issued by the U.S. government. The Index includes fixed rate securities with a minimum term to maturity greater than 20 years. The Index excludes inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. The bonds included in the Index are weighted based on market capitalization. The Indexs positions are reset each month. The Index is constructed and maintained by ICE Data Indices, LLC.

ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF

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Futures traders are navigating a minefield <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/tariffs">as new tariffs</a> send shockwaves across equities, commodities and Treasuries.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Markets Hate Surprises — Especially This Big</h1>
Jim Cagnina, senior market analyst at NinjaTrader, isn't surprised by the ripple effect. "Markets are inherently averse to uncertainty — especially at the scale we&#8217;re seeing with the new tariff regime," he said in an exclusive interview with Benzinga.
With inflation, raw material volatility and global supply chain risks rising, the market&#8217;s mood has clearly shifted to "risk-off."
The S&amp;P 500 futures are already down nearly 15% from their February peak, and Treasuries are feeling the pressure too. "U.S. Treasuries are also selling off big time with the 10 year yield tapping 4.5% in overnight trading," Cagnina noted, calling out the "48-basis-point move" seen last week, as one of the sharpest he&#8217;s seen in years.
As volatility hits the bond market, ETFs like the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>) or ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) may help traders express views on yields and rate moves.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44782555/10-year-treasury-yields-touch-45-amid-growing-tariff-uncertainty">Treasury Yields Hit 3-Year Record Surge Amid Trump Tariff Fears: What Investors Should Know</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Crude, Diesel, Metals Are Suddenly Hot</h1>
While some investors retreat, others are leaning in. Cagnina sees an upside in chaos — particularly in energy and metals.
"This environment is creating real opportunities in the energy space — particularly in Crude Oil, Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel and Gasoline futures," he said. Traders looking to ride the tariff-driven momentum in energy could consider the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>) or Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>), which offer targeted access to oil and broad energy equities, respectively.
Precious metals are also coming alive. "The bullish case for silver is strong and gaining momentum," he added, pointing to persistent supply deficits. Gold, meanwhile, is "finally acting like the risk-off safe haven many investors have been waiting for."
With Cagnina bullish on silver and gold, ETFs like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>) and SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) offer a liquid way to gain exposure without diving into futures directly.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Where's The Bottom? Watch These Numbers</h1>
For those brave enough to dip into equities, the magic number is 5000 for S&amp;P 500 futures. "The 5000 level has become a key level – sticky, yet still highly reactive," Cagnina explained. 
If it holds and daily price ranges tighten, that could suggest a bottom is in. Even stronger confirmation would come from a close above 5330, a key Fibonacci level that could flip sentiment from bearish to bullish, noted Cagnina.
For those eyeing a rebound in equities, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) remains the benchmark bet, while Invesco S&amp;P 500 Pure Value ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RPV#NYSE">RPV</a>) could appeal to bargain hunters anticipating a turnaround.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Every Day Is An Adventure</h1>
To time the turn, Cagnina recommends keeping an eye on the 8-period Exponential Moving Average near 5300. A close above it would be his green light to shift bullish. 
Until then? "Every day is an adventure,&#8221; he said.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44787818/sp-500-could-tank-to-4000-if-trump-put-fizzles-says-jpmorgan">S&amp;P 500 Could Tank To 4,000 If &#8216;Trump Put&#8217; Fizzles, Says JPMorgan</a></li>
</ul>
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iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury

EXCLUSIVE: Tariff Uncertainty Turns Traders Cautious — But Oil, Silver Might Be The Escape Hatch, Says Market Analyst

A large percentage of Americans appear to be wrong about the state <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/us-economy">of the economy.</a>
While most people share a gloomy sentiment about unemployment, poverty, purchasing power and consumer spending, hard data shows that the U.S. economy is actually thriving.
A recent <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/9c7931aa-4973-475e-9841-d7ebd54b0f47">survey</a> by FocalData and Financial Times sheds a worrying and bewildering light on perceptions of economic well-being versus real data markers.
More than 2200 U.S. adults were asked to rate their opinion on several economic indicators, and their answers were incorrect in most cases when compared to the numbers.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are Wages Losing To Inflation?</h3>
Inflation has been a major concern for Americans — and most of the industrialized world — since the impact of the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/11/36036187/anthony-fauci-to-mark-first-appearance-before-gop-controlled-house-urged-to-confront-the-facts">COVID-19 pandemic</a> and the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/23/12/36121317/janet-yellen-says-us-will-be-responsible-if-ukraine-loses-as-100b-aid-stuck-in-congress">Russian invasion of Ukraine</a> shot prices through the roof.
Although, with prices <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/23/11/35775608/us-inflation-eases-more-than-expected-in-october-cements-expectations-for-end-of-">decelerating to a 3.2% rise in October versus the previous year</a>, the worst part of the inflation storm seems to have passed.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/11/35872246/fomc-minutes-could-provide-markets-with-a-sobering-reminder-of-higher-for-longer">Inflation has been consistently dropping since peaking in June 2022</a>, and recent decisions on interest rates by the FOMC indicate that the Fed is getting comfortable with the rate of disinflation. The agency chose to pause interest rate hikes twice in a row in the most recent meetings.
This week, a report by ING even predicted that the Fed <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/12/36058438/federal-reserve-to-implement-six-rate-cuts-in-2024-amid-economic-slowdown-says-ing">is ready to implement a series of rate cuts in 2024</a>.
Yet of those surveyed, 73% of respondents believed that the rate of inflation had actually risen in the past year, while only 9% acknowledged that the rate of inflation was actually dropping.
While inflation is being tempered, the people surveyed continue to rate it among the most concerning issues impacting Americans today. When asked to compare prices and wages between today and one year ago, 90% of respondents incorrectly answered that prices have risen faster than wages.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, compiled by the St. Louis Fed, shows that median salaries have been rising consistently since mid-2022 while inflation has dropped.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are Americans Worse Off Today Than Before COVID?</h3>
The survey also revealed skewed perceptions regarding net worth, living standards, and purchasing power.
Sixty-seven percent of those surveyed indicated they believe the median American household was wealthier before the pandemic, while 63% thought that the median income could afford a better lifestyle a year ago.
Yet Fed data from the Survey of Consumer Finances shows that American households have become consistently wealthier in the period spanning from 2019 to 2022, with the median net worth jumping from $144,000 to $192,000.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve/23/10/35448776/what-is-the-average-net-worth-by-age">Net worth is up across the entire income ladder</a>, as well as wages, that have risen for lower-income families since before the pandemic.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">So, What's Going On?</h3>
Perceptions of economic well-being are relative and don't necessarily follow hard data markers.&nbsp;
Google Trends data reveals that the frequency of searches for &#8220;inflation&#8221; remained consistent in November, the same month the survey was conducted, as it was in January, a period when annual price increases were recorded at 6.4%.
Although the inflation rate halved, public interest in the topic remained high. This sustained attention is partly fueled by media reports that rely on search trends to determine their focus. This creates a feedback loop where certain topics are amplified and stay in the public consciousness, even when actual data suggests they are no longer a significant threat to the economy.
Political factors may also play a role in this phenomenon. As the presidential election approaches, candidates, particularly from the Republican side, are likely to craft narratives that resonate with their voter base, which can include emphasizing certain economic issues.
In recent debates, including the <a href="http://benzinga.com/news/23/12/36126019/trump-absent-tensions-high-highlights-from-the-last-gop-debate-of-2023-featuring-desantis-haley-chri">fourth Republican candidate debate</a> this week, there has been a trend among Republican candidates to critique the current state of the economy.
In the second Republican debate from September, former candidate Mike Pence said that "Bidenomics has failed. Wages are not keeping up with inflation," which has been contrasted by actual data. The former vice president has since dropped out of the race.
Candidate Vivek Ramaswamy said in the third debate from November, that "prices are going up, but wages have remained flat," while South Carolina Senator and presidential candidate Tim Scott said that gas prices are "40% higher right now than they were just a little over two years ago."&nbsp;
According to data from the Energy Information Administration, retail gas prices nationwide have decreased since June 2022 and, as of November, are comparable to the rates seen two years earlier.
Yet, according to analyst John Burn-Murdoch, who authored the survey, poll respondents sometimes answer surveys with wrong information in an effort to adhere to the narrative of their party, rather than to reflect their own opinions, in a phenomenon referred to as "expressive responding."
Lastly, people's perceptions of the economy can take time to adapt. While it's true that the last year has been favorable in raw economic terms, the effects of decades-high inflation and interest rates on people's lives can leave emotional scars that don't disappear as quickly as data points turn around.
For investors looking for ways to capitalized on the shifting inflation outlook, here are five ETFs to consider:
<ul>
<li>iShares TIPS Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TIP#NYSE">TIP</a>): This ETF tracks the performance of U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), providing exposure to inflation-adjusted bonds.</li>
<li>SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>): While not directly linked to inflation, gold is often considered a hedge against inflation, and this ETF tracks the price of gold bullion.</li>
<li>Shares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#BATS">GOVT</a>): This ETF invests in U.S. Treasury bonds of various maturities, which can be influenced by inflation expectations.</li>
<li>ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>): This ETF seeks to provide twice the inverse daily performance of long-term U.S. Treasury bonds, making it potentially attractive during periods of rising inflation.</li>
<li>iShares U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STIP#NYSE">STIP</a>): Similar to TIP, this ETF offers exposure to TIPS, which are designed to protect against inflation.</li>
</ul>
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Chances Are You're Wrong On Bidenomics: Survey Finds Wildly Concerning Views About Wealth, Income And Jobs

In the pre-pandemic era, bond investments were largely the domain of institutional funds, shielded from the hustle and bustle of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/interest-rates">the retail-trading world.</a>
And who could blame them. Fixed-income portfolio managers and analysts faced the Herculean task of seeking returns in a global environment characterized by rock-bottom or even negative interest rates. 
Often, they considered themselves fortunate to eke out meager basis points in gains. During this period, pension funds and money-market vehicles were in a frantic search for minimal returns. 
The boldest investors ventured into uncharted waters, hunting for yields in high-risk emerging markets, all too often subjecting themselves to wild bouts of volatility.
By the end of 2020, the yield to maturity on an Austrian government&#8217;s 100-year bond had dwindled to a mere 0.4%. Meaning, an investment in this security would have only gotten a nominal 0.4% annual return over the next century. 
As central banks worldwide unveiled unprecedented stimulus measures to rescue the global economy from the pandemic&#8217;s clutches, the market value of negative-yield bonds soared to an astonishing $18.4 trillion by late 2020. 
Fast-forward to the end of July 2023, this figure had plummeted to a meager $1.3 trillion, as per <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-01/global-pile-of-negative-yield-debt-driven-toward-zero-by-boj?embedded-checkout=true&amp;sref=TBDibEcD">Bloomberg </a>data, marking a spectacular sell-off that reverberated through many fixed-income funds and triggered a widespread devaluation of bonds across the globe. That figure could now be even lower given the latest Treasury rout. 
Remarkably, the same Austrian secular bond now offers a yield of 3%, but its value has plummeted by more than 85% since its 2020 peak. 
Closer to home, the market value of a generic 30-year Treasury bond has wiped out more than half of its value since reaching its zenith in March 2020. 
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/10/35110568/us-economy-at-crossroads-mohamed-el-erian-flags-stagflation-risk-cautions-on-recession-threat-for-20">US Economy At Crossroads: Mohamed El-Erian Flags Stagflation Risk, Cautions On Recession Threat For 2024</a>
Chart: Long-Maturity Bonds Experience Carnage After Pandemic
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="737" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-1024x737.png" alt="" class="wp-image-118789" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-1024x737.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-300x216.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333-768x553.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/05134140/AT100_2023-10-05_18-41-24_0f333.png 1501w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Retail Traders Jump On The Bond Market Bandwagon</h2>
These seismic tremors in the bond market have served as a stark reminder of how even seemingly impregnable assets can succumb to volatility in a world grappling with rising interest rates and inflation.
But apart from that, they have also given birth to a new phenomenon: the entry of retail traders into the fixed-income arena.
In recent times, discussions surrounding economic variables and bond-related assets have surged within popular retail trader communities on social media platforms. 
Tom Bruni, a senior writer at Stocktwits, shared insights during an exclusive interview with Benzinga, remarking that much of the discourse revolves around the broader macroeconomic picture.
Retail traders have come to realize that summer has brought not directionality but volatility beneath the surface, piquing their curiosity about global macroeconomic developments.
The realization that the risk-free rate now hovers around 5% is resonating not only on Wall Street but also in retail traders&#8217; circles.
Bruni further shed light on the growing interest in bond-linked Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) on Stocktwits. 
Retail traders have been swiftly adding Treasury-related funds, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NYSE">TLT</a>) and the PIMCO 25 Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury Index Exchange-Traded Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>), to their watchlists.
According to Stocktwits data, the median daily message volume referencing $TLT has surged by 156% compared to the previous year. In the final week of September, there was a remarkable surge in daily message volume, marking the highest point seen all year, and the first week of October is currently tracking to match this heightened activity.
&#8220;The number of users with $TLT on their watchlist has grown 16% year-on-year to 20,637,&#8221; Bruni said. 
To capitalize on the potential for even more substantial gains during this period of heightened bond market volatility, they have become increasingly familiar with Treasury-leveraged ETFs, including the ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) and the Direxion Daily 20-YR Treasury Bull 3x Shrs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>).
Now Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/23/10/35113287/how-the-january-effect-could-spark-tech-stock-renaissance-in-october-q4">How The &#8216;January Effect&#8217; Could Spark Tech Stock Renaissance In October, Q4</a>
Photo: Shutterstock

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iShares Trust Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

PIMCO 25+ Year Zeroupon US Treasury Index Fund

ZROZ

Retail Investors Dive Into Bond Market Wave: Treasury ETFs Attract Interest Amid Stock-Like Volatility

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman is shorting long-term U.S. Treasuries, specifically targeting the 30-year maturity. His prediction: yields <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/bill-ackman">could skyrocket to 5.5%.</a> 
But why is he making such a high-stakes bet?
In a tweet published overnight, the CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management warned that U.S. long-term interest rates are still low given several structural changes in the economy that are likely to trigger higher long-term inflation.
&#8220;I would be very surprised if we don't find ourselves in a world with persistent 3% inflation,&#8221; Ackman said. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Higher Debt, Deficits Warrant Increase In The Supply Of Bonds</h2>
Ackman said he expects an increase in the issuance of Treasuries as a result of the U.S. government&#8217;s massive $32-trillion debt and continuous large deficits. This comes at a time when the Federal Reserve is reducing its bond holdings through quantitative tightening (QT). 
&#8220;It is hard to imagine how the market absorbs such a large increase in supply without materially higher rates,&#8221; he said. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: 30-Year Treasury Yields Have Spiked Well Above 4%</h2>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" loading="lazy" width="1024" height="862" src="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/03081710/US30Y_2023-08-03_14-16-50_c6269-1024x862.png" alt="" class="wp-image-80701" srcset="https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/03081710/US30Y_2023-08-03_14-16-50_c6269-1024x862.png 1024w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/03081710/US30Y_2023-08-03_14-16-50_c6269-300x253.png 300w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/03081710/US30Y_2023-08-03_14-16-50_c6269-768x646.png 768w,https://s3.amazonaws.com/editorial.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/03081710/US30Y_2023-08-03_14-16-50_c6269.png 1283w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">30-Year Yields Could Soon Rise To 5.5%</h2>
According to Ackman, Japan&#8217;s exit from yield curve control (YCC), as well as mounting concerns about US governance, fiscal responsibility and political polarization underlined by Fitch&#8217;s downgrade of the country&#8217;s credit, may all lead to higher long-term interest rates.
A stabilization&nbsp;in long-term inflation to 3%, rather than the traditional 2%, may put significant upward pressure on 30-year rates, which might soon reach 5.5%.
Ackman warns that quick increases in bond yields are not uncommon, and this appears to be one of those episodes.
&#8220;The best hedges are the ones you would invest in anyway even if you didn't need the hedge. This fits that bill, and also I think we need the hedge,&#8221; Ackman wrote. 
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">ETFs Using Short Strategies Against Treasuries</h2>
There are several exchange traded funds that allow investors to take short positions on U.S. Treasury securities:
<ul>
<li>Direxion Daily 20-Year Treasury Bear 3X (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMW#NYSE">TMW</a>): A leveraged ETF aiming to provide three times the inverse daily performance of the NYSE 20+ Year Treasury Index.</li>
<li>ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBF#NYSE">TBF</a>): Seeks to provide the inverse performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.</li>
<li>ProShares UltraPro Short 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTT#NYSE">TTT</a>): Offers three times the daily inverse exposure to the performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.</li>
<li>ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>): Aims to deliver twice the inverse daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index.</li>
<li>ProShares Short 7-10 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBX#NYSE">TBX</a>): Provides the opposite daily performance of the ICE U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index.</li>
<li>Direxion Daily 10-YR Treasury Bear 3X SHRS (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TYO#NYSE">TYO</a>): A leveraged ETF designed to achieve three times the inverse daily return of the NYSE 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures Index.</li>
</ul>
Now read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/23/08/33532529/us-credit-rating-cut-triggers-surge-in-treasury-yields-7-etfs-experience-wild-swings">US Credit Rating Cut Triggers Surge In Treasury Yields: 7 ETFs Experience Wild Swings</a>

Government

Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X Shares

Hedge Fund Guru Bill Ackman Bets Against US Treasuries, Expects 30-Year Yields To Surge To 5.5%

<ul>
<li>On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by half of a percentage point and announce the start of reductions to its $9 trillion balance sheet as U.S. central bankers work to combat high inflation.</li>
<li>The decision would lift the Fed&#39;s short-term target policy rate to 0.75% - 1% and set a plan to trim its Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities portfolio by as much as&nbsp;$95 billion a month,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/feds-racing-raise-rates-how-high-remains-an-open-bid-2022-04-28/" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">writes Reuters</a>.</li>
<li>Markets have priced in further rate increases through this year and into next.</li>
<li>&quot;Powell will continue to have a strong incentive to sound hawkish,&quot; Piper Sandler economist Roberto Perli said this week. &quot;The Fed&#39;s focus these days is 100% on bringing inflation down, and hawkish expectations help that cause.&quot;</li>
<li>In the run-up to this week&#39;s meeting, Powell has said he wants to get rates &quot;expeditiously&quot; to what Fed policymakers regard as a &quot;neutral&quot; range of 2.25%-2.5%, and then higher if needed.</li>
<li>Photo via Wikimedia Commons</li>
</ul>

Markets

iShares JPMorgan USD Emerging Markets Bond Fund

VGLT

Fed Expected To Hike Interest Rate By Half Percentage Point To Curb Inflation

<ul>
<li>Japanese institutional managers are fueling the bond selloff just as the Federal Reserve pares its $9 trillion balance sheet,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-01/biggest-treasury-buyer-outside-u-s-quietly-offloads-billions?sref=TBDibEcD" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">writes Bloomberg</a>.</li>
<li>The latest data from BMO Capital Markets show that the largest overseas holder of Treasuries has offloaded almost $60 billion over the past three months.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Bloomberg says that though it may be a small change relative to Japan&#39;s $1.3 trillion stockpile, the divestment threatens to grow.&nbsp;</li>
<li>The monetary path between the U.S. and Japan is diverging evermore, the yen is at 20-year lows, and market volatility stateside is breaking out.&nbsp;</li>
<li>&quot;It&#39;s a significant amount of selling and on par with what we saw in early 2017 from Japan,&quot; said Ben Jeffery, BMO&#39;s rates strategist.&nbsp;</li>
<li>While an aggressive Fed tightening cycle to control inflation could result in multiple 50 basis-point hikes in the coming months, the Bank of Japan remains locked in the endless stimulus.&nbsp;</li>
<li>While the selloff pushed the 10-year U.S. yield to 2.94% on Monday in Asia, buyers who pay to protect against fluctuations in the yen-dollar exchange rate see their effective yields dwindle to just 1.3%.&nbsp;</li>
<li>Hedging costs have risen to 1.55 percentage points.</li>
<li>&quot;Hedge costs are the issue for investing in U.S. Treasuries,&quot; said Eiichiro Miura, the fixed-income department general manager at Nissay Asset Management Corp.</li>
</ul>

BNDX

iShares Trust Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund

Japanese Investors Fuel US Bond Selloff, Find Good Debt Opportunities In Europe: Bloomberg

According to a new report, global sovereign debt is expected to climb to a whopping $71.6 trillion in 2022, while fresh borrowing is also anticipated to remain high,&nbsp;<a class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/06/global-government-debt-set-to-soar-to-record-71-trillion-this-year-research.html" style="color:#4a6ee0; background:transparent; margin-top:0pt; margin-bottom:0pt" target="_blank">writes CNBC</a>.
In its second annual Sovereign Debt Index, British asset manager Janus Henderson projected a 9.5% rise in global government debt, driven primarily by the U.S., Japan, and China.
According to the report, global government debt jumped 7.8% in 2021 to $65.4 trillion, while debt servicing costs dropped to $1.01 trillion, an effective interest rate of just 1.6%. However, debt servicing costs are set to rise significantly in 2022, climbing around 14.5% on a constant-currency basis to $1.16 trillion.
&ldquo;The pandemic has had a huge impact on government borrowing &ndash; and the after-effects are set to continue for some time yet. The tragedy unfolding in Ukraine is also likely to pressure Western governments to borrow more to fund increased defense spending,&rdquo; said Bethany Payne, portfolio manager for global bonds at Janus Henderson.
According to the latest global borrowing report from S&amp;P Global Ratings, new sovereign borrowing is expected to reach $10.4 trillion in 2022, almost a third above the average before the Covid-19 pandemic.
&ldquo;We expect borrowing to stay elevated, owing to high debt-rollover needs, fiscal policy normalization challenges posed by the pandemic, high inflation, and polarized social and political landscapes,&rdquo; said S&amp;P Global Ratings credit analyst Karen Vartapetov.

Global Government Debt Expected To Swell To $71 Trillion In 2022: CNBC

<blockquote>Karolina Grabowska/Pexels
</blockquote>
Turning Slightly More Bearish
<blockquote>In&nbsp;a post&nbsp;in late January, I mentioned that a bearish ETF had hit our top names for the first time since 2020:
<blockquote>Our system&#39;s universe of securities includes inverse and bearish ETFs, and that, at some point in the current market environment, those might appear among our top names, and in our hedged portfolios. That point ended up being Wednesday, as you can see below.
</blockquote>
<img alt="" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/1/27/131469-16432729792574627.png" />
Screen capture via Portfolio Armor on 1/26/2022.
The ProShares Short Russell 2000 (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/rwm#NYSE">RWM</a>), an inverse ETF of the Russell 2000 small cap index, appeared in our top ten alongside some familiar long names such as Nvidia, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/nvda#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Tesla, Inc.&nbsp;(NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), and the Direxion Daily S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exp. &amp; Prod. Bull 2x Shares (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/gush#NYSE">GUSH</a>).
</blockquote>
RWM was a top name of ours again on Monday, and it was joined by another bearish ETF, the ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).&nbsp;
Betting Against The Long Bond
TBT is a 2x levered bet against long duration U.S. Treasuries, the bonds most sensitive to interest rate movements.&nbsp;Our system doesn&#39;t consider the macro picture when selecting its top names. Instead, it gauges stock and options market sentiment to estimate which securities are likely to perform the best over the next six months. Nevertheless, that bottoms-up approach often reflects the macro picture, and the inclusion of TBT certainly does.&nbsp;
As I&nbsp;pointed out over the weekend (Sanctioning Ourselves), U.S.&nbsp;sanctions on Russia--particularly, the freezing of its dollar reserves--will likely lead to a weaker dollar, as non-Western countries diversify away from the dollar to avoid having their reserves frozen by us in a future conflict.
<iframe height="812" src="https://seekingalpha.com/embed/19330" width="550"></iframe>
A likely result of that will be higher interest rates in the U.S., as it may take higher rates to entice risk-averse, non-European countries to hold U.S. Treasury bonds. Higher rates, of course, are bearish for existing bonds. That&#39;s a scenario where TBT, which bets against long-dated Treasury bonds, should do well.&nbsp;
In Case We&#39;re Wrong About TBT
It&#39;s possible we&#39;ll end up being wrong about TBT. Maybe the rest of the world will put aside the sanction risk for now and buy U.S. Treasuries as a haven, as they have in the past. With the hedge below, you can make money holding TBT if we end up being right, and strictly limit your downside risk in the event we end up being wrong.&nbsp;
As of Monday&#39;s close, this was the optimal collar to hedge 1,000 shares of TBT against a &gt;20% drop by September, while not capping your possible upside at less than 20% over the same time frame.&nbsp;
<img alt="" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/15/131469-16473329284235873.jpg" style="height:463px; width:340px" />
<img alt="" src="https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/3/15/131469-16473329400207746.jpg" style="height:399px; width:340px" />
Screen captures via the&nbsp;<a href="https://portfolioarmor.com/" rel="dofollow">Portfolio Armor</a>&nbsp;iPhone app.&nbsp;
The net cost was negative with this collar, meaning you would have collected a net credit of $340, or 1.64% of position value, when opening the hedge. That cost assumes, to be conservative, that you placed both trades (buying the puts and selling the calls) at the worst ends of their respective spreads. In practice, you can often buy and sell options at some price between the bid and ask, so your net credit would likely have been larger than $340 if you did so.&nbsp;

Asia

Global

GUSH

NVDA

TSLA

Betting Against Bonds: Our Freezing Of Russia's Dollar Assets Will Likely Drive China Away From U.S. Treasuries

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) shares experienced unusual options activity on Monday. The stock price moved up to $17.76 following the option alert. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BEARISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: CALL</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-09-17</li>
<li>Strike Price: $18.00</li>
<li>Volume: 662</li>
<li>Open Interest: 19971</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Ways Options Activity Is ‘Unusual'</h2>
One way options market activity can be considered unusual is when volume is exceptionally higher than its historical average. The volume of options activity refers to the number of contracts traded over a given time period. The number of contracts that have been traded, but not yet closed by either counterparty, is called open interest. A contract cannot be considered closed until there exists both a buyer and seller for it. 
Another indicator of unusual options activity is the trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future. Additional time until a contract expires generally increases the potential for it to grow its time value and reach its strike price. It is important to consider time value because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
Contracts that are "out of the money" are also indicative of unusual options activity. "Out of the money" contracts occur when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made with the expectation that the value of the underlying asset is going to change dramatically in the future, and buyers and sellers will benefit from a greater profit margin. 
<h2>Understanding Sentiment</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Using These Options Strategies</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

Movers

Analyzing ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury's Unusual Options Activity

ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) shares experienced unusual options activity on Thursday. The stock price moved up to $17.09 following the option alert. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BEARISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: CALL</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2022-01-21</li>
<li>Strike Price: $18.00</li>
<li>Volume: 448</li>
<li>Open Interest: 7603</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Ways Options Activity Is ‘Unusual'</h2>
Exceptionally large volume (compared to historical averages) is one reason for which options market activity can be considered unusual. The volume of options activity refers to the number of contracts traded over a given time period. The number of contracts that have been traded, but not yet closed by either counterparty, is called open interest. A contract cannot be considered closed until there exists both a buyer and seller for it. 
Another sign of unusual activity is the trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future. Usually, additional time until a contract expires allows more opportunity for it to reach its strike price and grow its time value. Time value is important to consider because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
Contracts with a strike price far from the underlying price are also considered unusual because they are defined as being "out of the money". This occurs when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made because the underlying asset value is expected to change dramatically in the future, and the buyer or seller can take advantage of a greater profit margin. 
<h2>Understanding Sentiment</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Using These Strategies To Trade Options</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

On Friday, shares of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) saw unusual options activity. After the option alert, the stock price moved down to $17.35. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BULLISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: PUT</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-08-20</li>
<li>Strike Price: $17.50</li>
<li>Volume: 500</li>
<li>Open Interest: 1169</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Signs Of Unusual Options Activity</h2>
One way options market activity can be considered unusual is when volume is exceptionally higher than its historical average. The volume of options activity refers to the number of contracts traded over a given time period. The number of contracts that have been traded, but not yet closed by either counterparty, is called open interest. A contract cannot be considered closed until there exists both a buyer and seller for it. 
Another sign of unusual activity is the trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future. Usually, additional time until a contract expires allows more opportunity for it to reach its strike price and grow its time value. Time value is important to consider because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
Contracts that are "out of the money" are also indicative of unusual options activity. "Out of the money" contracts occur when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made with the expectation that the value of the underlying asset is going to change dramatically in the future, and buyers and sellers will benefit from a greater profit margin. 
<h2>Bullish And Bearish Sentiments</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Trading Options With These Strategies</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

Unusual Options Activity Insight: ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury

Shares of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) saw some unusual options activity on Thursday. Following the unusual option alert, the stock price moved up to $17.55. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BULLISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: CALL</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-08-20</li>
<li>Strike Price: $16.00</li>
<li>Volume: 513</li>
<li>Open Interest: 8245</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Ways Options Activity Is ‘Unusual'</h2>
Extraordinarily large volume (compared to historical averages) is one indication of unusual options market activity. Volume refers to the total number of contracts traded over a given time period when discussing options market activity. Open interest is the number of unsettled contracts that have been traded but not yet closed by either counterparty. In other words, open interest represents the quantity of contracts that individual parties have written but not yet found a counterparty for (i.e. a buyer finding a seller, or a seller finding a buyer).
The trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future is another sign of unusual activity. Generally, additional time until a contract expires increases the potential for it to reach its strike price and grow its time value. Time value is important in this context because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
"Out of the money" contracts are unusual because they are purchased with a strike price far from the underlying asset price. "Out of the money" occurs when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. Buyers and sellers try to take advantage of a large profit margin in these instances because they are expecting the value of the underlying asset to change dramatically in the future. 
<h2>Bullish And Bearish Sentiments</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Trading Options With These Strategies</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

Options

On Tuesday, shares of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) saw unusual options activity. After the option alert, the stock price moved up to $17.27. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BEARISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: CALL</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-08-20</li>
<li>Strike Price: $16.00</li>
<li>Volume: 3116</li>
<li>Open Interest: 6109</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Signs Of Unusual Options Activity</h2>
Extraordinarily large volume (compared to historical averages) is one indication of unusual options market activity. Volume refers to the total number of contracts traded over a given time period when discussing options market activity. Open interest is the number of unsettled contracts that have been traded but not yet closed by either counterparty. In other words, open interest represents the quantity of contracts that individual parties have written but not yet found a counterparty for (i.e. a buyer finding a seller, or a seller finding a buyer).
The trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future is another sign of unusual activity. Generally, additional time until a contract expires increases the potential for it to reach its strike price and grow its time value. Time value is important in this context because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
Contracts with a strike price far from the underlying price are also considered unusual because they are defined as being "out of the money". This occurs when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made because the underlying asset value is expected to change dramatically in the future, and the buyer or seller can take advantage of a greater profit margin. 
<h2>Understanding Sentiment</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
Although the activity is suggestive of these strategies, these observations are made without knowing the investor's true intentions when purchasing these options contracts. An observer cannot be sure if the bettor is playing the contract outright or if they're hedging a large underlying position in a common stock. For the latter case, the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock may be more meaningful than bullish options activity. 
<h2>Using These Options Strategies</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

On Monday, shares of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) saw unusual options activity. After the option alert, the stock price moved down to $16.95. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BULLISH</li>
<li>Option Type: TRADE</li>
<li>Trade Type: CALL</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-09-17</li>
<li>Strike Price: $16.00</li>
<li>Volume: 2057</li>
<li>Open Interest: 2228</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Indications Of Unusual Options Activity</h2>
One way options market activity can be considered unusual is when volume is exceptionally higher than its historical average. The volume of options activity refers to the number of contracts traded over a given time period. The number of unsettled contracts that have been traded, but not yet closed, is called open interest. These contracts are not yet closed because a buyer has not purchased the contract, or a seller has not sold it.
Another indicator of unusual options activity is the trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future. Additional time until a contract expires generally increases the potential for it to grow its time value and reach its strike price. It is important to consider time value because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
Contracts with a strike price far from the underlying price are also considered unusual because they are defined as being "out of the money". This occurs when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. These trades are made because the underlying asset value is expected to change dramatically in the future, and the buyer or seller can take advantage of a greater profit margin. 
<h2>Understanding Sentiment</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Trading Options With These Strategies</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

On Friday, shares of ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TBT#NYSE">TBT</a>) saw unusual options activity. After the option alert, the stock price moved up to $18.13. 
<ul>
<li>Sentiment: BEARISH</li>
<li>Option Type: SWEEP</li>
<li>Trade Type: PUT</li>
<li>Expiration Date: 2021-07-30</li>
<li>Strike Price: $19.00</li>
<li>Volume: 604</li>
<li>Open Interest: 642</li>
</ul>
<h2>Three Ways Options Activity Is ‘Unusual'</h2>
Extraordinarily large volume (compared to historical averages) is one indication of unusual options market activity. Volume refers to the total number of contracts traded over a given time period when discussing options market activity. Open interest is the number of unsettled contracts that have been traded but not yet closed by either counterparty. In other words, open interest represents the quantity of contracts that individual parties have written but not yet found a counterparty for (i.e. a buyer finding a seller, or a seller finding a buyer).
The trading of a contract with an expiration date in the distant future is another sign of unusual activity. Generally, additional time until a contract expires increases the potential for it to reach its strike price and grow its time value. Time value is important in this context because it represents the difference between the strike price and the value of the underlying asset. 
"Out of the money" contracts are unusual because they are purchased with a strike price far from the underlying asset price. "Out of the money" occurs when the underlying price is under the strike price on a call option, or above the strike price on a put option. Buyers and sellers try to take advantage of a large profit margin in these instances because they are expecting the value of the underlying asset to change dramatically in the future. 
<h2>Bullish And Bearish Sentiments</h2>
Options are "bullish" when a call is purchased at/near ask price or a put is sold at/near bid price. Options are "bearish" when a call is sold at/near bid price or a put is bought at/near ask price. 
These observations are made without knowing the investor's true intent by purchasing these options contracts. The activity is suggestive of these strategies, but an observer cannot be sure if a bettor is playing the contract outright or if the options bettor is hedging a large underlying position in common stock. For the latter case, bullish options activity may be less meaningful than the exposure a large investor has on their short position in common stock.
<h2>Using These Strategies To Trade Options</h2>
Unusual options activity is an advantageous strategy that may greatly reward an investor if they are highly skilled, but for the less experienced trader, it should remain as another tool to make an educated investment decision while taking other observations into account.
For more information to understand options alerts, visit <a href="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts" title="https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts">https://pro.benzinga.help/en/articles/1769505-how-do-i-understand-options-alerts</a>

Understanding ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20 Year Treasury's Unusual Options Activity

On <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/01/options-action-vix-warning-signs.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Options Action,&quot;</a> Mike Khouw said that calls significantly outpaced puts in ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (BATS: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/vixy#BATS">VIXY</a>) on Monday.
The most active options were the March $17 calls and they were trading for 35 cents. The trade breaks even at $17.35 or more than 40% above the ETF&#39;s closing price on Monday. Khouw also noticed call purchases in VIX and ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>). This combined activity could mean that people are using the current rally as an opportunity to put some hedges on, said Khouw.

Media

VIXY

Mike Khouw Sees Unusual Options Activity In VIXY

On <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/08/23/final-trades-msft-xrt-and-more.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Fast Money Final Trade,&quot;</a> Steve Grasso said he would be a seller of salesforce.com, inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/crm#NYSE">CRM</a>) on the pop and he would be a buyer of Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/msft#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>).
Brian Kelly wants to buy ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).
Karen Finerman is a buyer of Foot Locker, Inc. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/fl#NYSE">FL</a>).
Dan Nathan would sell SPDR S&amp;P Retail (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/xrt#NYSE">XRT</a>).
Related Links:
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/08/14318303/foot-locker-trades-lower-on-q2-earnings-miss">Foot Locker Trades Lower On Q2 Earnings Miss</a>
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/19/08/14316090/salesforce-stock-jumps-on-q2-beat-higher-full-year-revenue-guidance">Salesforce Stock Jumps On Q2 Beat, Higher Full-Year Revenue Guidance</a>

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MSFT

Foot Locker, Salesforce And More 'Fast Money' Picks For August 23

Tim Seymour said on <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/04/30/fast-money-final-trades-ea-tsla-and-more.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Fast Money Final Trade&quot;</a>&nbsp;he&#39;s bullish on the gaming stocks. He wants to buy Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ea#NASDAQ">EA</a>).
Karen Finerman expects to see higher interest rates and inflation and she wants to buy ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr(ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).
Steve Grasso wants to buy Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tsla#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>).
Guy Adami thinks it would be a good idea to buy Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ttwo#NASDAQ">TTWO</a>).

TTWO

EA, Take-Two, Tesla And TBT: 'Fast Money' Picks For May 1

On <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/02/27/fast-money-final-trades-intc-baba-and-more.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Fast Money Final Trade&quot;</a>, Pete Najarian said Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/intc#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) is going higher.
Steve Grasso has a long position in Alibaba Group Holding Ltd (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/baba#NYSE">BABA</a>) and he is looking to add to his position.
Brian Kelly suggested investors should hedge their portfolios with a long position in ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr(ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>).
Tim Seymour is a buyer of Cisco Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/csco#NASDAQ">CSCO</a>).

BABA

CSCO

INTC

Alibaba, Cisco, Intel: 'Fast Money' Picks For February 28

On <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/video/2018/01/18/fast-money-final-trades-ibm-c-and-more.html">CNBC&#39;s &quot;Fast Money Final Trade&quot;</a>, Pete Najarian said&nbsp;Citigroup Inc (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/c#NYSE">C</a>) is going towards $90. He is a buyer of the stock.
Karen Finerman wants to buy ProShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Yr(ETF) (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/tbt#NYSE">TBT</a>). She thinks inflation is coming and she sees the trade as a good hedge against the market.
Dan Nathan believes&nbsp;International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/ibm#NYSE">IBM</a>) is a buy. He thinks it&#39;s going to trade above $170.
Guy Adami likes Cypress Semiconductor Corporation (NASDAQ: <a class="ticker" href="/stock/cy#NASDAQ">CY</a>). He said the stock is breaking out to the upside ahead of Feb. 1 earnings.

Citigroup, Cypress Semi, IBM: 'Fast Money' Picks For January 19

PowerShares UltraShort Lehman 20+ Year Treasury ProShares 2x Shares

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