iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ: TLT)

Ultime notizie per iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT)

iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The Fund seeks to track the investment results of the ICE U.S. Treasury 20+ Year Bond Index (the Underlying Index), which measures the performance of public obligations of the U.S. Treasury that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years. As of February 29, 2024, there were 40 issues in the Underlying Index. The Underlying Index consists of publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity greater than or equal to twenty years and have dollar 300 million or more of outstanding face value, excluding amounts held by the Federal Reserve System (the Fed). In addition, the securities in the Underlying Index must be fixed rate and denominated in U.S. dollars. Excluded from the Underlying Index are inflation-linked securities, Treasury bills, cash management bills, any government agency debt issued with or without a government guarantee and zero-coupon issues that have been stripped from coupon-paying bonds. The Underlying Index is market value weighted, and the securities in the Underlying Index are updated on the last business day of each month.

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Wall Street stumbled midday Friday, shaken by a fresh wave of trade war fears after President Donald Trump proposed aggressive new tariffs on Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45585283/trump-tariff-threat-hits-europe-stocks-sink-as-50-duties-loom">and European imports.</a>
In a post on Truth Social, Trump threatened a 25% import duty on Apple Inc. if the tech giant doesn't repatriate its manufacturing to the United States. He also floated a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union, escalating concerns of a renewed transatlantic trade war.
Shares of Apple Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NYSE">AAPL</a>) dropped 2.6% in response. The S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.8% to fall below the key 5,800 mark, on track to close the week lower. 
Growth-oriented sectors like technology and consumer discretionary bore the brunt of the selling, while traditionally defensive sectors such as utilities and consumer staples remained in the green.
Volatility spiked as investors turned risk-averse. The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the VIX, climbed 8%, reflecting growing market anxiety. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) wasn&#8217;t spared from the risk-off sentiment, shedding over 2% to trade around $108,700. 
Treasury yields edged down to 5.02%, pushing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) 0.3% higher as investors sought safer assets.
Gold prices surged 2.1% to $3,362 per ounce, boosted by safe-haven demand and a weakening U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar index is down 1.8% this week, on pace to break a four-week winning streak.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>% Chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,037.33</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>41,636.55</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,805.10</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>20,942.13</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:50 p.m.</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) slipped 0.7% to $579.36.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) eased 0.5% to $416.59.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;fell 0.8% to $509.67.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.4% to $202.51.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLU#NYSE">XLU</a>) underperformed, down 0.7%; the&nbsp;Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) lagged, down 1%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Friday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Intuit Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTU#NASDAQ">INTU</a>) rallied 8% after reporting stronger-than-expected earnings. </li>
</ul>
Other stocks reacting to earnings report were: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Workday, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WDAY#NASDAQ">WDAY</a>) down 11.3%</li>
<li>Autodesk, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ADSK#NASDAQ">ADSK</a>) down 0.5%</li>
<li>Ross Stores, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ROST#NASDAQ">ROST</a>) down 10.5%</li>
<li>Deckers Outdoor Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DECK#NYSE">DECK</a>) down 19.2%</li>
<li>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BAH#NYSE">BAH</a>) down 16%</li>
<li>Cavco Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVCO#NASDAQ">CVCO</a>) down 3.1%</li>
</ul>
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Stocks, Bitcoin Fall On Trump's Tariff Threats, Gold Rallies: What's Driving Markets Friday?

Bank of America chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett says it's time to "buy humiliation and sell hubris," and nowhere is that more relevant than in the long-end of the U.S. Treasury market, following <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/michael-hartnett">weeks of sharp selloff. </a>
In his latest "The Flow Show" published Friday, Hartnett made a bold contrarian call: 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds, now yielding above 5%, have become a cyclical buying opportunity.
Despite mounting fiscal pressures, soaring inflation, and rising interest costs, the expert indicated that the worst may be priced in — and that the return of bond vigilantes could soon start working in favor of long-duration debt.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45589413/shaquille-o-neal-says-a-young-waitress-once-asked-him-for-a-4000-tip-to-pay-her-rent-for-two-months-and-he-said-ok-no-problem">Shaquille O&#8217; Neal Says A Young Waitress Once Asked Him For A $4,000 Tip To Pay Her Rent For Two Months — And He Said, &#8216;Ok, No Problem&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Bond Market&#8217;s Fall From Grace</h3>
"The 10-year return from U.S. Treasuries is now as humiliatingly negative as stock returns in February 2009 or commodities in June 2018," Hartnett said, highlighting that long bonds are currently the most out-of-favor asset on Wall Street.
Year-to-date, 30-year Treasuries – as tracked by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) – are down 3.8%, compared to gains of 25% for gold, 13% for international stocks, and 4.5% for U.S. government bonds overall. 
The U.S. dollar is down 7.9%, while oil is off by more than 15%.
Adding to the irony, Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) short-dated corporate bonds now yield less than Treasuries, while the yield spread on 30-year maturities has narrowed to just 20 basis points — the tightest level ever recorded.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Fiscal Policy Flashing Red</h3>
Hartnett says the current path of U.S. fiscal policy is unsustainable. Over the past 12 months, the federal government spent $7.1 trillion — an average of $225,000 per second. Interest payments on federal debt have ballooned to $1 trillion annually, and the debt ceiling will need to rise by $4 trillion this year just to keep up.
The 2020s combination of Biden's Build Back Better spending and Trump's Big Beautiful Bill tax plans, Hartnett said, "do not a AAA-rating make."
&#8220;US federal budget deficit&nbsp;has&nbsp;averaged 9% of GDP past 5 years, is&nbsp;forecast by Moody&#8217;s to&nbsp;still be running a&nbsp;9%-of-GDP&nbsp;deficit in&nbsp;2034,&#8221; Hartnett added. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why This Is A Contrarian Buy</h3>
Despite all the bearish sentiment, Hartnett believes the catalysts for the bond bear market are well known and mostly priced in. 
Inflation is already up 25% since 2020, the Fed has paused rate cuts, and the U.S. fiscal position is widely acknowledged as unsustainable.
He sees the 5% level on 30-year Treasuries as a red line — a level that could incentivize buying from bond vigilantes seeking to enforce fiscal discipline. Importantly, yields above this threshold are negative for a financialized U.S. economy and create headwinds for growth.
Hartnett pegs the "magic number" at a 5-year yield of 3.25% — above that, interest payments explode; below it, they stabilize.
Now Read
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Image: Shutterstock

Treasuries

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30-Year Treasuries Offer Contrarian Entry Point: Buy 'Humiliation,' Bank Of America Investment Strategist Says

The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), a closely watched gauge of long-term U.S. government debt, fell 1.7% on Wednesday to its lowest level in six months. The drop came as investors repriced risk across markets following a weak 20-year Treasury auction, stoking fears that interest rates may <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45550679/treasury-yields-top-5-these-20-stocks-tanked-in-just-one-hour">stay elevated for longer. </a>
The selloff also reflects deepening concern over America's fiscal trajectory, with long-term yields rising in the wake of Moody's recent downgrade <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45500872/30-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-what-that-means-for-stocks">of U.S. sovereign credit.</a>
While the downgrade was not significantly sharp, just one position down to Aa1 from Aaa, it marks the third major credit warning in just over a decade and strengthens the growing concerns about debt sustainability, governance, and interest burdens.
A Downgrade With Bite In The Bond Market
While Moody&#8217;s downgrade might seem symbolic on its face, its impact on markets has been real, at least for fixed-income investors. Yields on long-term U.S. Treasurys rose at the start of the week, pushing bond prices down. As bond prices and yields move inversely to each other, TLT&#8217;s fall indicates increasing demand for higher returns to carry U.S. government debt.
Fiscal deficits and political polarization were also mentioned by Moody&#8217;s as important drivers of the change of outlook, concerns that have now become recurring in U.S. credit analysis.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/05/45507759/tips-in-trouble-why-inflation-protected-bond-etfs-are-losing-their-spark">TIPS In Trouble: Why Inflation-Protected Bond ETFs Are Losing Their Spark</a>
Stocks Brush It Off, But Bonds Tell A Different Story
U.S. equities were trading lower on Wednesday as investors grew increasingly cautious following new fiscal policy worries, which weighed on Treasury <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45540541/5-treasury-yields-are-back-and-so-are-painful-mortgage-rates" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">bonds and the dollar.</a>
For fixed-income investors, credit ratings have a direct bearing on risk models, mandate portfolios, and capital expenses. A downgrade, even a token one, can shift asset flows and prices along the curve.
Bond markets were in for a fresh dose of selling pressure, with the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45549510/wall-street-stalls-as-yields-rise-bitcoin-breaks-records-above-109000-whats-driving-markets-wednesday">30-year Treasury yield surging to 5.02% on Wednesday</a>, the highest in nearly two months, as traders mulled the potential fiscal implications of President Donald Trump‘s proposed &#8220;One Big Beautiful Bill,&#8221; which some economists say could further worsen the U.S. deficit outlook.
TLT: Still Popular Despite the Pain
In spite of the recent drawdown, investor appetite for TLT is strong. The fund attracted a whopping $636.9 million on Friday alone, which has put its assets under management at $48.7 billion, as per FactSet. These inflows were made while there was an equity rally on the same day, underlining TLT&#8217;s attractiveness as a hedge as well as a speculative vehicle for duration exposure.
The opposing dynamics, increasing inflows in the face of declining prices, imply that investors are either getting ready for a change in the rate cycle or betting that long-dated Treasurys may regain if recession concerns surface.
Looking Forward
Though TLT&#8217;s recent lows can be seen as investor repricing in response to the downgrade, the overall message is one of prudence. Higher yields, persistence inflation, trade tensions, and the possibility of slowing economic growth in 2025 might make both bonds and equities behave erratically.
The Moody&#8217;s downgrade won&#8217;t create panic, but it underscores an important fact: America&#8217;s fiscal problems are no longer abstract, they&#8217;re beginning to get priced in.
Read Next:
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Photo: Shutterstock

iShares TLT Hits 6-Month Low After Weak Treasury Auction

A sharp jump in Treasury yields following Wednesday's weak 20-year bond auction triggered a swift market reaction, with several high-growth and tech names plunging between 1:05 p.m. and 2:05 p.m. ET—the exact window 30-year <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/treasuries">yields spiked above 5.08%.</a>
Tempus AI Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TEM#NASDAQ">TEM</a>) led the decline, falling 6.9%, followed by Hims &amp; Hers Health Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HIMS#NYSE">HIMS</a>), which dropped 5%, data from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a> platform shows. 
AI infrastructure firm CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRWV#NASDAQ">CRWV</a>) slid 4.4%, while Bitcoin-linked Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSTR#NASDAQ">MSTR</a>) tumbled 4.3%. 
Trading platform Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HOOD#NASDAQ">HOOD</a>) lost 3.7%.
The selloff came as investors repriced risk across equities amid fears of persistently higher rates, sparked by soft demand at the 20-year Treasury auction. 
The bid-to-cover ratio of 2.46 landed near the bottom quartile of the past 50 auctions, with the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), sliding to a 19-month low.
Notable losers among the 20 movers with at least $10 billion market cap also included Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>), Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) and Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), with declines of 3.1%, 2.9% and 2.7%, respectively. 
Semiconductor names also came under pressure, as ON Semiconductor Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ON#NASDAQ">ON</a>) fell 2.8%, while Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>) lost 3% during the hour-long selloff. Other high-beta tech stocks such as Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CRDO#NASDAQ">CRDO</a>) and Mobileye Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MBLY#NASDAQ">MBLY</a>) each dropped over 3%, reflecting broad-based risk aversion triggered by the Treasury market spike. 
The weakness extended into biotech and aerospace sectors as well, with Summit Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMMT#NASDAQ">SMMT</a>) and Rocket Lab USA Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RKLB#NASDAQ">RKLB</a>) down 2.7% and 3.5%, respectively.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Name</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>% Change</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Tempus AI</td>
<td>$60.39</td>
<td>-6.91%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Hims &amp; Hers Health</td>
<td>$58.27</td>
<td>-5.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>CoreWeave</td>
<td>$104.33</td>
<td>-4.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Strategy</td>
<td>$399.58</td>
<td>-4.15%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Robinhood Markets</td>
<td>$64.11</td>
<td>-3.73%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Aurora Innovation</td>
<td>$6.17</td>
<td>-3.60%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Rocket Lab USA</td>
<td>$25.48</td>
<td>-3.51%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Credo Technology Group</td>
<td>$60.98</td>
<td>-3.24%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mobileye Global</td>
<td>$15.88</td>
<td>-3.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Astera Labs Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ALAB#NASDAQ">ALAB</a>)</td>
<td>$92.15</td>
<td>-3.21%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ServiceTitan Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TTAN#NASDAQ">TTAN</a>)</td>
<td>$123.13</td>
<td>-3.07%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Palantir Technologies</td>
<td>$122.40</td>
<td>-3.05%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Super Micro Computer</td>
<td>$42.16</td>
<td>-3.04%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Estee Lauder Cos Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EL#NYSE">EL</a>)</td>
<td>$64.11</td>
<td>-2.96%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>)</td>
<td>$260.26</td>
<td>-2.92%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TOL#NYSE">TOL</a>)</td>
<td>$103.95</td>
<td>-2.89%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ON Semiconductor</td>
<td>$44.03</td>
<td>-2.82%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Summit Therapeutics</td>
<td>$25.59</td>
<td>-2.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nvidia Corp. </td>
<td>$133.27</td>
<td>-2.69%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kinsale Capital Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KNSL#NYSE">KNSL</a>)</td>
<td>$460.03</td>
<td>-2.64%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Benzinga Pro</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Extend Lows</h3>
The S&amp;P 500 Index, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), deepened losses, falling 1.3% by 2:17 p.m. ET, while small caps were hit harder, with the Russell 2000 plunging 2.4%. 
All S&amp;P 500 sectors traded in negative territory, led by real estate, which dropped 2.7% under pressure from rising yields.
Gold miners, tracked by the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), were the only industry group holding gains, supported by a rise in bullion prices as investors sought safety amid Treasury volatility. 
The clean energy industry was the day's worst performer, with the Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBW#NYSE">PBW</a>) sliding 3.4%.
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45548192/tesla-enters-its-most-bullish-window-this-seasonal-trade-delivered-24-average-gain-over-10-years">Tesla Enters Its Most Bullish Window: This Seasonal Trade Delivered 24% Average Gain Over 10 Years </a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Mid Cap

Small Cap

Analyst Ratings

Tech

ALAB

COIN

CRDO

CRWV

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. Class A Common Stock

HIMS

HOOD

KNSL

MBLY

MSTR

NVDA

PowerShares Exchange Traded Fund Trust WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio

PLTR

RKLB

SMCI

SMMT

TTAN

Treasury Yields Top 5%: These 20 Stocks Tanked In Just One Hour

Long-dated U.S. Treasuries tumbled to their lowest levels since October 2023 as yields surged past 5%, fueled by a weaker-than-expected bond auction and mounting deficit fears tied to President Donald Trump&#8216;s proposed tax-cut plan now <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">under debate in Congress.</a>
The 30-year Treasury yield soared to 5.08% on Wednesday, sending bond prices tumbling and pushing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) down 1.6% to $84—its lowest level since October 2023.
The move accelerated shortly after 1:05 p.m. in New York, following the U.S. Treasury's $16 billion auction of 20-year bonds. The auction produced a high yield of 5.047%, roughly 1.2 basis points above the when-issued level, signaling soft demand. 
According to an analysis by Exante Data, Wednesday&#8217;s auction metrics signaled overall weak demand.
The bid-to-cover ratio came in at 2.46, sitting just above the bottom quartile of the last 50 auctions and well below the historical median, pointing to soft overall interest. 
Primary dealers—the institutions obligated to absorb unsold issuance—took 16.9% of the auction, near the top end of historical norms, indicating that other buyer groups were less aggressive. 
Direct bidders, such as mutual funds and hedge funds, only accounted for 14.1%, well below their typical share. 
The only bright spot came from indirect bidders—largely foreign investors—who absorbed 69%, a figure above the median and a sign that global buyers are still stepping in, even as domestic appetite shows signs of fatigue.
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">20-Year Bond Auction Summary Today (May 21, 2025), the US Treasury auctioned a 20-Year bond for $18.2bn at a High Yield of 5.05%, recording a Bid to Cover of 2.46. In the chart below we summarize other auction metrics. <a href="https://t.co/C01qYxoN6g">pic.twitter.com/C01qYxoN6g</a>
&mdash; Exante Data (@ExanteData) <a href="https://twitter.com/ExanteData/status/1925236736457580900?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 21, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: TLT ETF Sinks To 19-Month Lows</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="529" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-1024x529.png" alt="" class="wp-image-923307" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-1024x529.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-300x155.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-768x397.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-1536x793.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/21134207/image-272-2048x1058.png 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Deficit Fears Keep Pressure On Bonds</h3>
Market participants remain focused on the structural shift in U.S. fiscal policy under President Trump's second administration. The new tax-and-spending package, expected to pass Congress in coming weeks, could slash federal tax revenues by $4.1 trillion through 2034, according to the Tax Foundation.
In a note Wednesday, Oxford Economics analyst John Canavan said Moody's recent downgrade of U.S. sovereign debt didn't come as a shock but amplified existing concerns. 
"The downgrade itself shouldn&#8217;t have a major impact on markets, but it does reinforce the pre-existing concerns about fiscal sustainability and the broader attractiveness of U.S. assets for global investors."
Canavan added that higher Treasury term premiums—extra compensation for holding long-dated debt—are likely to remain elevated under such fiscal conditions. 
Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni echoed the sentiment, saying that the bond market is increasingly pricing in a more structural problem with U.S. fiscal management.
"Budget deficits matter," Yardeni said. "That's especially so when they lead to higher interest rates, higher bond yields, and potentially higher inflation."
Yardeni warned that Trump's new fiscal package is "a big beautiful bill that totes a big ugly tab," arguing that the composition of the tax plan—not just its headline numbers—is driving bond market unease.
"Huge budget deficits were a feature during the COVID pandemic," Michael Gayed, CFA said in an email. 
"But the fact that they've remained in place even throughout the post-pandemic recovery indicates that excessive government spending has become the norm, not the exception. If this tax cut bill passes, which it likely will eventually, Treasuries may have a harder time developing any momentum, save for a major economic downturn."
Read now: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45540541/5-treasury-yields-are-back-and-so-are-painful-mortgage-rates">5% Treasury Yields Are Back, And So Are Painful Mortgage Rates </a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Government

Regulations

US Bond Market Flashing Red: 30-Year Yield Tops 5%, Prices Tank To October 2023 Lows

Mortgage rates have jumped to their highest level in three months as U.S. Treasury yields, driven by rising deficits and fiscal policy fears, push the 30-year benchmark <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45505333/investors-piled-into-long-term-treasury-etfs-ahead-of-moodys-downgrade-will-confidence-hold">above the critical 5% mark</a>.
According to the latest Mortgage Bankers Association report, mortgage application volumes in the U.S. dropped 5.1% for the week ending May 16, the steepest decline in a month.
The drop coincided with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumping 6 basis points to 6.92%, marking its highest level in three months.
The rise in borrowing costs tracked Treasury yields higher &#8220;with investors concerned about rising inflation and the impact of increasing deficits and debt", said Mike Fratantoni, MBA's chief economist.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45537307/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-expert-says-tariffs-remain-a-headwind-but-tax-cut-and-easing-of-tensions-in-middle-east-could-propel-equities-closer-to-all-time-highs">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower, Expert Says &#8216;Tariffs Remain A Headwind&#8217;</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Why Are Treasury Yields Rising?</h3>
Yields on the 30-year Treasury bond soared to 5.02% on Wednesday, up by over 10 basis points from a week ago.
A recent downgrade by Moody's of U.S. sovereign debt after market close last Friday has added to the pressure, shaking investor confidence and pushing yields higher. 
Bondholders are pricing in higher risk premiums as the federal government accelerates deficit spending without clear offsetting revenue measures.
A new tax-and-spending bill backed by President Donald Trump and Republicans is adding fuel to bond market fears. According to the Tax Foundation, the legislation would reduce federal revenues by an estimated $4.1 trillion from 2025 to 2034.
With public debt nearing 100% of gross domestic product and the Congressional Budget Office projecting a 117% debt-to-GDP ratio by 2035, bond investors are beginning to push back, demanding higher compensation for holding U.S. Treasuries.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) is down 0.9% during Wednesday premarket trading in New York.
The world&#8217;s biggest bond fund has lost 9% since Trump won the elections in November 2024. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Ed Yardeni Sounds The Alarm On Deficit Risks</h3>
Veteran market strategist Ed Yardeni, founder of Yardeni Research, sounded the alarm over the soaring U.S. budget deficit. 
"Budget deficits matter. That's especially so when they lead to higher interest rates, higher bond yields, and potentially higher inflation," Yardeni said in a note Wednesday. 
Yardeni highlighted that the bond market is reacting not just to headline deficits, but to the structure of the Trump&#8217;s fiscal plan.
&#8220;Trump 2.0&#8217;s tax and spending bill—now moving swiftly through Congress—packs a fiscal punch,&#8221; he added. 
While the bill includes new deductions and credits for lower-income families, the largest benefits accrue to middle-class households via broader standard deductions and lower tax rates. High-income earners see a mixed outcome, with gains offset by reduced exemptions.
Yet Yardeni said every household could feel the pinch if the tax bill drives up fiscal stress, interest rates and borrowing costs.
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Image: Shutterstock

Real Estate

5% Treasury Yields Are Back, And So Are Painful Mortgage Rates

U.S. stocks pulled back Tuesday morning as Wall Street recalibrated expectations on growth and inflation amid rising fiscal risks tied to President Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump's sweeping tax proposal.</a>
The S&amp;P 500 declined 0.4% to 5,935, potentially ending its six-day rally, while tech shares showed parallel losses. Small-cap equities held their ground, with the Russell 2000 trading flat.
Tensions are mounting in the U.S. House of Representatives, where lawmakers are locked in heated debates over Trump's proposed "One Big Beautiful Bill." The bill seeks to extend 2017 tax cuts, expand exemptions and overhaul federal spending, effectively tying tax relief to a reshaping of government priorities.
Trump has personally urged GOP lawmakers to back the bill, which he considers central to his second-term agenda.
&#8220;Alternative to not passing tax bill is massive tax hikes,&#8221; Trump said on Tuesday. 
Markets responded swiftly to the possibility of higher long-term government borrowing. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note rose seven basis points to 4.98%, a level not seen since March. As a result, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) fell 0.9%.
Despite rising yields, gold rallied sharply by 1.8% to $3,280 per ounce, reversing nearly all of last week's losses. The safe-haven demand may reflect investor concern over mounting deficits and inflationary spillovers.
In energy markets, Henry Hub natural gas prices spiked over 9% to $3.39 per million British thermal units. Traders are betting on a demand rebound in case of an early summer heatwave, which could sharply increase air conditioning usage.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) eased 0.4% to $105,000. 
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S., Indices, ETFs</h1>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day chg. %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,103.06</td>
<td>-0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,669.90</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,943.01</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,364.43</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 12:20 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) edged 0.4% down to $592.44.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) eased 0.3% to $426.57.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;fell 0.5% to $519.28.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) inched 0.11% up to $209.20.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Utilities&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLY#NYSE">XLY</a>) was down 0.032%; the&nbsp;Real Estate&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLRE#NYSE">XLRE</a>) lagged, down 0.8%.</li>
</ul>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NYSE">MSFT</a>) slipped 0.5%, even as <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45519467/microsofts-4-trillion-moment-is-now-in-sight-goldman-sachs">Goldman Sachs lifted</a> its price target from $480 to $550.</li>
<li>Amer Sports Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AS#NYSE">AS</a>) soared 17% in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>
<li>Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HD#NYSE">HD</a>) inched 0.5% after marginally missing Street&#8217;s estimates. </li>
<li>Stocks slated to report earnings after the close include Palo Alto Networks Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PANW#NASDAQ">PANW</a>) and Keysight Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KEYS#NYSE">KEYS</a>) Read Now: • <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45517783/magnificent-7-stun-the-street-with-the-best-earnings-beat-since-2021">Magnificent 7 Stun The Street With Best Earnings Beat Since 2021</a> Photo: Shutterstock<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45517783/magnificent-7-stun-the-street-with-the-best-earnings-beat-since-2021"> </a> </li>
</ul>

KEYS

PANW

XLRE

Wall Street Falls As 30-Year Treasury Flirts With 5% Yield: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

Retail investors flooded the market with $4.1 billion in stock purchases during Monday morning&#8217;s selloff, with Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) attracting the largest inflows, according to JPMorgan data.
What Happened: &#8220;Congrats to those &#8216;buying the dip,'&#8221; wrote Fundstrat Global Advisors co-founder Tom Lee on X Monday, responding to investor Amit Kukreja, who shared the retail buying figures.
The aggressive purchasing followed Moody&#8217;s decision Friday to strip the U.S. of its final AAA credit rating, citing persistent fiscal deficits and rising debt burdens. The downgrade aligns Moody&#8217;s with Fitch and S&amp;P, marking the first time all three major agencies have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">rated U.S. debt below the top tier</a>.
Tesla captured $675 million in retail inflows while Palantir drew $439 million, according to the data. Single stocks accounted for $2.5 billion of purchases, with exchange-traded funds comprising the remaining $1.5 billion.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/05/45510197/bitcoin-ethereum-dogecoin-rally-as-senate-advances-key-crypto-bill-analyst-says-btc-could-touch-a-fresh-all-time-high-in-coming-days">Bitcoin, Ethereum, Dogecoin Rally As Senate Advances Key Crypto Bill: Analyst Says BTC Could Touch A Fresh All-Time High In Coming Days</a>
Why It Matters: The buying emerged as markets reacted defensively to the U.S. credit downgrade, with the S&amp;P 500 futures falling 1% and the Nasdaq 100 contracts dropping 1.5% in Monday&#8217;s premarket. High-growth tech stocks were hit particularly hard, with PLTR down up to 4.4% and TSLA declining 3.9% during <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">the regular trading session on Monday</a>.
Despite market jitters, many analysts view the rating cut as having <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">a limited long-term impact</a>. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called Moody&#8217;s decision &#8220;a lagging indicator&#8221; on CNBC, noting the administration &#8220;inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP ratio&#8221; and is &#8220;determined to bring spending down.&#8221;
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/05/45510198/scott-bessent-says-us-will-continue-trading-with-china-while-strategically-reshoring-semiconductors-steel-and-pharmaceuticals-to-protect-national-security">Scott Bessent Says US Will &#8216;Continue Trading With China&#8217; While Strategically Reshoring Semiconductors, Steel, and Pharmaceuticals To Protect National Security</a></li>
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Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

TSLA

Tom Lee Cheers On 'Buy The Dip' Crowd As Retail Investors Pour $4.1 Billion Into Stocks: Tesla, Palantir Lead Inflows

Investors poured billions into long-dated U.S. Treasury ETFs in the days leading up to Moody's credit rating downgrade—raising fresh doubts over whether that confidence can endure <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45500872/30-year-treasury-yields-hit-5-what-that-means-for-stocks">as debt risks deepen.</a>
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—the world&#8217;s biggest fixed-income ETF—attracted $2.07 billion in inflows between May 12 and May 16, according to ETFdb.com flow data. This is the largest weekly haul since November 2024 and the second biggest since June 2024.
Other long-duration Treasury ETFs also recorded notable inflows last week:
The Direxion Daily 20-Yr Treasury Bull 3x Shares (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TMF#NYSE">TMF</a>)—which offers triple-leveraged exposure to 20-year Treasury bonds—attracted $470 million, its largest weekly inflow since November 2024, signaling a surge in leveraged bullish bets on long-term rates.
Meanwhile, the PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>) pulled in $32.8 million, marking its strongest week of inflows since January 2025.
The timing is notable: the surge in demand preceded Friday's Moody's downgrade, which cut the U.S. sovereign rating to Aa1 from Aaa, citing chronic deficits, rising debt servicing costs, and a bleak fiscal outlook heading toward deficits near 9% of GDP by 2035, should the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act be extended.
Still, year-to-date long-dated Treasury ETFs have seen more outflows than inflows. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) witnessed $1.2 billion in outflows, positioning 2025 to potentially become the first year of net withdrawals since 2020. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Tariff Truce Sparked Optimism, Reduced Recession Odds </h3>
Part of the inflows into long-dated Treasuries may have been fueled by a major U.S.-China trade breakthrough, with both sides agreeing to slash tariffs by 115 percentage points—a move that sparked a rally in risk assets and lowered perceived recession risks.
Last week's economic tone was notably risk-on – bolstered by two cooler-than-expected inflation reports – and investors, anticipating stability in interest rates and soft-landing potential, re-entered duration trades in Treasury markets. Long bonds typically perform well when growth fears ease and the market sees room for rate cuts.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Moody's Downgrade Adds Tension—But No Panic</h3>
Despite the downgrade, the market response was measured on Monday. The 30-year Treasury yield briefly spiked above 5% on Monday before falling back to 4.92% as demand resurfaced.
The TLT ETF inched 0.3% lower, signaling that while sentiment slightly weakened, there was no panic selling.
"Friday&#8217;s U.S. sovereign downgrade by Moody&#8217;s is unlikely to result in forced selling but may worsen UST sentiment," said Bank of America analyst Mark Cabana in a note.
Yet, several analysts across Wall Street have largely downplayed the immediate impact of the downgrade. 
Further, regulatory frameworks—such as the Basel III capital standards—continue to treat U.S. Treasuries rated AAA to AA- as risk-free for capital requirement purposes. 
This means banks and institutional investors face no changes in how they treat U.S. government bonds, reinforcing the structural role Treasuries play as collateral and liquidity instruments globally.
The appetite for duration remains intact—for now—but whether investors continue pouring in as fiscal risks take center stage remains to be seen.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade? </a></li>
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Photo: Shutterstock

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares

PIMCO 25+ Year Zeroupon US Treasury Index Fund

ZROZ

Investors Piled Into Long-Term Treasury ETFs Ahead Of Moody's Downgrade: Will Confidence Hold?

U.S. stocks trimmed early-session losses by midday Monday, as investors showed limited concern after Moody's downgraded U.S. sovereign credit from Aaa to Aa1, effectively stripping the world's largest economy of its last <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45492889/americas-credit-strength-just-got-cut-again-should-you-panic">top-tier credit rating. </a>
The S&amp;P 500 index hovered near Friday's close. A green end to the session would mark the sixth consecutive daily gain. The Nasdaq 100 also traded flat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed, and small caps lagged. 
Bond markets initially reacted sharply, with 30-year Treasury yields spiking above 5% following the downgrade. Yet, buying interest emerged during the session, pulling yields back to 4.95%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) still was down 0.6% on the day. 
The U.S. dollar index (DXY) weakened 0.6% to 100.40, reflecting moderate selling pressure on the greenback. Sector performance was muted overall, except for energy, which fell 1.5%. Crude oil slipped 0.4%, while natural gas dropped 6% amid oversupply concerns. 
Gold rose 1% to $3,235 per ounce, supported by safe-haven flows. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) rallied 2%, climbing above the $105,000 mark.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Performance In Major US Indices, ETFs</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Major Indices</td>
<td>Price</td>
<td>1-day %chg</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Dow Jones</td>
<td>42,824.92</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Nasdaq 100</td>
<td>21,456.60</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>S&amp;P 500</td>
<td>5,965.78</td>
<td>0.1 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Russell 2000</td>
<td>2,102.02</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated by 1:05 p.m. ET</figcaption></figure>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade?</a></li>
</ul>
According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) inched 0.1% up to $594.91.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) rose 0.4% to $428.18.</li>
<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;edged 0.1% higher to $522.01.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) fell 0.5% to $208.80.</li>
<li>The&nbsp;Health Care&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLV#NYSE">XLV</a>) outperformed, up 0.7%; the&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) lagged, down 1.5%.</li>
</ul>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Monday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) jumped 8%, extending Friday's 6% surge, after several company executives bought shares <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45493652/700m-asset-manager-exits-unitedhealth-stock-says-medicare-advantage-is-facing-a-perfect-storm">during the recent selloff</a>.</li>
<li>New Fortress Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NFE#NASDAQ">NFE</a>) rallied 21%, following a nearly 60% decline last week amid lower-than-expected earnings. </li>
<li>Novavax Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVAX#NASDAQ">NVAX</a>) surged 18% after the FDA approved its Nuvaxovid COVID-19 vaccine <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/05/45488265/novavax-wins-limited-fda-nod-for-covid-shot-cleared-only-for-seniors-high-risk-groups-amid-safety-scrutiny">for high-risk individuals</a>, including seniors over 65 and those aged 12–64 with underlying health conditions. Shares of Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRNA#NASDAQ">MRNA</a>) rose 6.4%.</li>
</ul>
Now Read: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/05/45497403/is-the-dollars-global-reserve-role-at-risk-after-moodys-downgrade">Is The Dollar&#8217;s Global Reserve Role At Risk After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

MRNA

NVAX

Stocks Mixed, Treasury Bonds Slip On Moody's US Downgrade: What's Driving Markets Monday?

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/2025-05-19_08h10_29.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Take More Partial Profits On Tactical Trades</h4>
Consider continuing to take partial profits on tactical trades that were initiated near the April lows.
Out of an abundance of caution, our Protection Band is being raised.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">U.S. Downgraded</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-us-downgrade-treasury-yields-tlt-mc-05192025">click here</a> for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The chart shows Treasuries were almost out of the danger zone marked on the chart.</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries have fallen below the danger zone on Moody's downgrading U.S. debt.</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries are now in zone 4 (support).</li>
<li>The chart shows Treasuries have not been this low since Fall 2023.</li>
<li>Here is a historical perspective of what happened when Standard &amp; Poor's downgraded U.S. debt in August 2011. 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>The next trading session S&amp;P 500 fell 6.7%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 5.6%.</li>
<li>Over the following weeks, the market experienced heightened volatility with consecutive days with 4+% swings in either direction.</li>
<li>The stock market dropped more than 20%, technically entering a bear market for a short period.</li>
<li>By December 31, 2011, the market ended the year roughly flat.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In our analysis, the impact of the downgrade is likely to be muted and very different from 2011 for the following reasons:   
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Moody's is simply 14 years too late.&nbsp; Based on the data, Moody's should have downgraded U.S. debt in 2011.&nbsp;</li>
<li>There is no new information in Moody's downgrade.</li>
<li>In 2011, the S&amp;P 500 downgrade was a shock.  Now, there is nothing new here.</li>
<li>Stock market bulls are pinning their hopes on President Trump's "big beautiful bill."&nbsp; The House Budget Committee advanced the reconciliation bill.&nbsp; The bill includes both tax cuts and spending cuts and a debt ceiling increase.&nbsp; The House will likely vote later this week.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
<li>The momo crowd is now more powerful than ever.&nbsp; The momo crowd does not do any analysis and does not take risk into account.&nbsp; The momo crowd simply buys every stock market dip on hopium.&nbsp;&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In the early trade, true to its pattern, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks, taking advantage of about a 1% dip in the stock market on the downgrade.</li>
<li>Prudent investors should pay attention to the latest University of Michigan data.&nbsp; Here are the key points: 
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Consumer sentiment fell to 50.8 vs. 55 consensus.&nbsp; As a reference, at the same time last year, the index was at 69.1.</li>
<li>Inflation expectations for the year ahead increased from 6.5% to 7.3%.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>In our analysis, this particular set of data on consumer sentiment is flawed because it was before President Trump gave China the greatest deal ever.  President Trump's action has reduced consumer anxiety about tariffs in the short term.  </li>
<li>Leading Indicators were released today at 10am ET.</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin has been very volatile after the U.S. downgrade.  The Senate is likely to pass the stablecoin bill.  This will be the first big legislative win for the crypto industry after President Trump's re-election.  
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  Our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

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14 Years Too Late - U.S. Downgrade Pushes Long Borrowing Costs Over 5%, Senate Likely To Pass Stablecoin Bill

<ul>
<li>UNH</li>
<li>NVDA</li>
<li>GLD</li>
<li>TSLA</li>
<li>BULL</li>
<li>RDDT</li>
<li>GOOGL</li>
<li>PLTR</li>
<li>CORN</li>
<li>TLT</li>
</ul>
Data from <a href="https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment">https://swaggystocks.com/dashboard/wallstreetbets/ticker-sentiment</a>
&nbsp;

BULL

CORN

GOOGL

RDDT

Top 10 Trending Stocks On WallStreetBets As Of May 19, 2025 (Via Swaggy Stocks)

Moody's Ratings has officially stripped the U.S. of its final AAA credit score — the highest mark of financial credibility — sparking political uproar and media alarm, yet market analysts and economists widely believe it will have limited impact on <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">the broader financial system.</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Did Moody's Decide About US Credit Rating?</h3>
Moody's cut the U.S. long-term sovereign credit rating to Aa1 from Aaa on Friday, citing sustained fiscal deficits, rising debt burdens and growing interest costs. 
The agency criticized "successive U.S. administrations and Congress" for failing to implement a credible debt reduction strategy.
This move aligns Moody's with Fitch Ratings, which downgraded the U.S. in August 2023, and S&amp;P Global Ratings, which cut the rating back in 2011. 
For the first time, all three major credit agencies have the U.S. rated below AAA.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-regular"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>S&amp;P</th>
<th>Moody&#8217;s</th>
<th>Fitch</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<th>AA+</th>
<th>Aa1</th>
<th>AA+</th>
</tr>
</thead>
</table>
</figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Do Markets Care This Time?</h3>
"This downgrade won't force anybody to do anything on Monday," said Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. 
He noted that after S&amp;P&#8217;s 2011 downgrade caused market disruption due to contract language requiring AAA-rated collateral, those rules were rewritten. "Now, these contracts reference ‘government securities,' not ratings," he said.
Bianco added, "So technically it didn't even change the US's overall credit rating because it was already split rated AA+. Now it's unanimous AA+. Nothing changed."
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Debt Concerns Are Misguided</h3>
Macro analyst Alfonso Peccatiello also challenged the logic behind the downgrade. He indicated that U.S. debt in its own currency is not inherently dangerous. 
"Any government doing deficit spending and issuing bonds in its own currency—like the U.S.—isn't walking into an abyss of doom," Peccatiello said. "It's just choosing to stimulate the economy by printing money for the private sector."
Addressing concerns about the $1 trillion annual interest burden, he said this is simply money being transferred from the government to investors holding Treasury bonds. 
"For every dollar the U.S. pays in interest, there is an investor making that dollar," he said, framing it as a redistribution within the economy, not a red flag of insolvency.
Peccatiello explained that U.S. Treasuries continue functioning as high-quality liquid assets for banks under Basel regulations.
"The downgrade to AA+ wouldn't make any difference," he said, as government bonds rated between AAA and AA- carry the same 0% risk weighting under Basel's framework.
He said rising deficits only become problematic when they cause inflation or resource scarcity—not because of arbitrary credit score thresholds.
According to Peccatiello, long-term bond yields are already pricing in much of the fiscal outlook, making current levels—particularly 30-year Treasuries above 5.25%—increasingly attractive for accumulation.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">More Politics Than Panic</h3>
Economist Mohamed El-Erian called the move "historic," but said it was unlikely to shake global markets. 
However, he added that the downgrade "amplifies the conversation about America&#8217;s political ability to address its fiscal deficit and debt trajectory."
El-Erian&#8217;s view mirrors market action: U.S. Treasuries remain the most trusted collateral globally, and their deep liquidity shields them from dramatic dislocations.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Political Reactions And The Trump Administration's Position</h3>
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, speaking on CNBC, called Moody's decision "a lagging indicator." 
He said, "We inherited a 6.7% deficit-to-GDP ratio, the highest when we weren't in a recession or at war. We are determined to bring spending down."
Bessent added that foreign capital flows remain robust. "Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE are pushing more and more money into the U.S., with 10-year investment plans," he said.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street Shakes On The Downgrade</h3>
Despite widespread commentary downplaying Moody's downgrade of U.S. debt, investors reacted defensively in Monday's premarket, with major equity futures sliding and high-growth tech stocks leading losses.
S&amp;P 500 futures fell 1%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 1.5%, signaling a risk-off tone ahead of the Wall Street open.
Among mega-cap stocks, the worst-hit names in premarket trading:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) declined 2%. </li>
<li>Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PLTR#NYSE">PLTR</a>) dropped 4.4%.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) declined 3.9%.</li>
<li>Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) slipped 2.9%.</li>
<li>Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) lost 2.7%.</li>
<li>United Parcel Service Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UPS#NYSE">UPS</a>) fell 2%.</li>
</ul>
The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 10 basis points to 5%, hitting its highest level since October 2023. The spike in yields reflects investor concerns over the long-term fiscal trajectory and a higher-for-longer interest rate environment.
The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>)—a popular proxy for long-dated U.S. bonds—fell 1.6% in premarket trading, continuing a trend of weakness in duration-sensitive assets.
Now Read:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45489038/us-stocks-likely-to-open-lower-after-moodys-downgrade-bear-market-isnt-fully-recovered-yet-but-it-is-close-says-expert">US Stocks Likely To Open Lower After Moody&#8217;s Downgrade: &#8216;Bear Market Isn&#8217;t Fully Recovered Yet, But It Is Close,&#8217; Says Expert</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

AMZN

AVGO

America's Credit Strength Just Got Cut Again: Should You Panic?

While Wall Street&#8217;s mood around solar stocks has generally been cool since President <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a> took the oath again, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/george-soros">George Soros</a> is dialing up the wattage.
In a surprise move that bucks the broader sentiment, Soros Fund Management revealed a bold new bet on First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), scooping up 1.6 million call options. The position, valued at over $202 million, now ranks as the second-largest holding in Soros' $6.7 billion portfolio, according to the firm's first quarter <a href="https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1029160/000090266425002391/xslForm13F_X02/primary_doc.xml">13F filing</a>.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44246100/trump-musk-slam-soros-linkedin-founder-hoffmann-over-tesla-boycotts-protests">Trump Joins Musk To Slam Soros, LinkedIn Co-Founder Over Tesla Boycotts, Protests</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Clean Energy Muted, Yet George Soros Is Bullish</h2>
Call options are inherently bullish, and this wager suggests Soros is expecting a serious upside in First Solar shares — even as many investors remain skeptical amid softening demand and policy uncertainty in the clean energy space.
This contrarian bet stands out especially given recent weakness across solar names, with FSLR stock trailing broader indexes and analysts reining in expectations. But Soros, who's never been shy about going against the grain, appears to see something others don't &#8211; perhaps a regulatory tailwind, earnings surprise, or sector re-rating on the horizon.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Other Bets: Long-Term Treasury, Defensive Plays</h2>
It&#8217;s not Soros' only forward-leaning move this quarter. 
The fund also added call positions in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) and continued to push into defensive plays like AstraZeneca PLC (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AZN#NASDAQ">AZN</a>) and American Electric Power Company Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEP#NASDAQ">AEP</a>). But First Solar is the crown jewel of first quarter activity &#8211; a new position, sized up fast, and sitting near the top of the portfolio.
Whether it's a signal of a clean energy comeback or just smart macro hedging, Soros' solar call is shining a spotlight on a sector many have left for dead.
And if history is any guide, it's worth asking: What does Soros know that the Street doesn't?
Read Next:
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/hedge-funds/25/05/45447966/ray-dalios-bridgewater-dumps-spy-trims-nvidia-meta-alphabet-bearish-vibes">Ray Dalio&#8217;s Bridgewater Dumps SPY, Trims Nvidia, Meta, Alphabet — Bearish Vibes?</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

Long Ideas

Hedge Funds

FSLR

George Soros Loads Up On First Solar Calls: What Does He Know That Wall Street Doesn't?

JOET

Live On CNBC, Joe Terranova Announces Sold Entire iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Position

The chief economic adviser to President Donald Trump, Stephen Miran, reportedly struggled to reassure major bond and hedge fund investors during a meeting last week.
What Happened: Miran, who also heads the Council of Economic Advisers, met with representatives from top hedge funds and other significant investors at the White House on Friday. The meeting was organized amid a period of heightened market instability caused by Trump&#8217;s tariff policies, according to a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/a815323b-ae2b-4586-aec2-39dec35726f0">Financial Times</a> report. The meeting, arranged by Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/C#NYSE">C</a>), included representatives from hedge funds Balyasny, Tudor and Kenneth Griffin&#8216;s Citadel, as well as asset managers PGIM and BlackRock Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLK#NYSE">BLK</a>).
Several attendees expressed dissatisfaction with the meeting, describing Miran&#8217;s remarks on tariffs and markets as unclear or insufficient. Some even suggested that Miran was not up to the task. Some called him "incoherent"  while some said, he was &#8220;Out of his depth&#8221;. 
"When you're with an audience that knows a lot, the talking points are taken apart pretty quickly,&#8221; a source told Financial Times. 
However, one individual familiar with the meeting expressed optimism about the administration&#8217;s approach to deregulation and tax cuts. 
Earlier this month in a speech at the Hudson Institute, Miran proposed that countries either accept U.S. tariffs on their exports without retaliating or "write cheques to Treasury that help us finance global public goods" as potential solutions.
SEE ALSO: <a href="https://benzinga.com/news/25/04/45084963/joe-rogan-says-people-dont-realize-how-quickly-things-can-collapse-just-how-los-angeles-fell-apart-the-us-co" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Joe Rogan Says People Don&#8217;t Realize How Quickly Things Can Collapse: &#8216;Just How Los Angeles Fell Apart The US Could Fall Apart Too&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: The Trump administration&#8217;s policies have led to significant fluctuations in U.S. equity and debt markets. U.S. government bonds experienced a sharp sell-off following the president&#8217;s announcement of steep tariffs on April 2.
Recently, hedge fund manager Spencer Hakimian <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/45031287/us-companies-earn-6x-more-in-china-than-they-export-heres-why-blowing-up-global-trade-would-be-economic-suicidesays-leading-fund-manager">criticized the ongoing</a> trade and tariff war, describing it as unprecedentedly &#8220;stupid&#8221;. He highlighted that S&amp;P 500 companies generate nearly $1.17 trillion in annual revenue from China. Meanwhile, some investors have managed to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44893887/greenlight-capitals-gold-investments-yield-high-returns-amidst-market-downturn">find success</a> amid the market downturn. Billionaire investor David Einhorn&#8216;s hedge fund, Greenlight Capital, reported an 8.2% return in the first quarter of 2025, significantly outperforming the S&amp;P 500&#8217;s loss of over 4% during the same period.
However, according to most investors, declining long-term bond prices and a weakening dollar indicate that the U.S.&#8217;s status as a safe haven in global markets is facing pressure.
Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) climbed 2.24% year-to-date, while iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) rose 3% during the same period. 
<ul>
<li>READ MORE: <a href="https://benzinga.com/news/25/04/45090231/elon-musk-says-will-come-as-a-surprise-to-most-as-chinas-economy-surpasses-us-and-eu-amid-rising-tariffs-and" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Elon Musk Says Will Come As A &#8216;Surprise To Most&#8217; As China&#8217;s Economy Surpasses US And EU Amid Rising Tariffs And Growing Recession Fears</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

Key Trump Adviser's Attempt To Reassure Investors Amid Market Turmoil Draws Criticism As Some Say He Was 'Out Of His Depth': 'When You're With An Audience That Knows A Lot...'

Live On CNBC, Joe Terranova Announces Increased iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF Position

<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img decoding="async" src="https://thearorareport.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/2025-04-23_08h09_14.png" alt="" /></figure>
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Walk Back From The Brink</h4>
Please <a href="https://thearorareport.com/stock-market-chart-analysis-trump-walks-back-tesla-earnings-tlt-mc-04232025">click here </a>for an enlarged chart of iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>).
Note the following:
<ul>
<li>&nbsp;The chart shows that TLT was staying below zone 3.</li>
<li>The chart shows the recent rally in bonds after President Trump paused reciprocal tariffs failed.</li>
<li>The chart shows that the rally did not even reach the top band of zone 3 before failing.&nbsp; This indicated high stress in the bond market.</li>
<li>The chart shows that bonds were back in the danger zone ahead of the all important $70B 5 year Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>In our analysis, without President Trump walking back from the brink, there was real danger for the auction today to go poorly and push bonds into zone 4 shown on the chart.</li>
<li>As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as you knew that the bond market was President Trump's pain point.</li>
<li>President Trump walked back from the brink:
<ul>
<li>President Trump said he did not intend to fire Fed Chair Powell.</li>
<li>President Trump said soothing things about China.</li>
<li>Earlier in the day yesterday, Bessent had laid the groundwork, indicating that the situation with China should de-escalate over time.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>Immediately after President Trump's comment about not firing Powell, extremely aggressive buying came in the markets.
<ul>
<li>Stocks sharply rose in the after hours.</li>
<li>Bonds rose.</li>
<li>Oil rose.</li>
<li>Dollar rose.</li>
<li>Yen fell.</li>
<li>Gold fell.</li>
</ul>
</li>
<li>The reason the yen and gold fell was because after President Trump's walk back, there is less need for safe havens.</li>
<li>Earlier in the afternoon, prior to President Trump's walk back, as full disclosure, We had given signals to take partial profits on gold ETF SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), iShares Silver Trust (SLV), Newmont Corporation (NEM).  With the benefit of hindsight, these calls now seem prescient, but only time will tell how good these calls were.</li>
<li>Tesla Inc (TSLA) stock is very popular among retail investors.  Moves in TSLA stock impact sentiment.  After hours, Tesla reported dismal earnings &#8211; the worst in a long time.  Aggressive buying came into TSLA stock when CEO Elon Musk said he would be spending less time on DOGE and more time on his businesses.  This comment from Musk energized Tesla bulls and added to the positive sentiment in the stock market that had started minutes earlier from President Trump's statement.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment is that India may consider zero tariffs on Harley-Davidson Inc (HOG) bikes.  Musk is also thinking of expanding into India.</li>
<li>There was considerable Fed speak yesterday.&nbsp; Normally, we would have shared with you the important points from the Fed speak in this morning's Capsule.&nbsp; However, President Trump's comments have rendered the Fed speak meaningless.</li>
<li>Investors should pay careful attention to the results of the Treasury auction today.</li>
<li>The Fed's Beige Book will be released today at 2pm ET.</li>
<li>A 20% staff cut at a big company is draconian.  Yet, this is exactly what the new CEO at Intel Corp (INTC) is doing.  Investors love layoffs.  Unfazed by the misery of those who are laid off, investors are cold hearted.  Investors believe the bigger the layoff the better.   Money is flowing into INTC stock on the news.</li>
<li>Adding to the positive sentiment are good earnings from Boeing Co (BA), AT&amp;T Inc (T), GE Vernova Inc (GEV), Boston Scientific Corp (BSX), and SAP SE (SAP).</li>
</ul>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Magnificent Seven Money Flows</h4>
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (AAPL), Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (META), Microsoft Corp (MSFT), NVIDIA Corp (NVDA), and TSLA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks</h4>
Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.&nbsp; Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.&nbsp; The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLV#NYSE">SLV</a>).&nbsp; The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (ASCA:USO).
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Bitcoin</h4>
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) is seeing aggressive buying.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now</h4>
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  our proprietary Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.&nbsp; The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.&nbsp; If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.&nbsp; A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.&nbsp; When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.&nbsp; High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Traditional 60/40 Portfolio</h4>
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.&nbsp; Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever <a href="https://thearorareport.com/generate-wealth-newsletter-benzinga">Generate Wealth Newsletter</a>.

The Real Reason Trump Walked Back From The Brink, Tesla Bulls Energized, Intel Cuts

Fears of the end of the U.S. exceptionalism trade have triggered a rare, simultaneous selloff across stocks, Treasuries and the dollar in recent weeks, as concerns over tariffs and the politicization of the Federal Reserve under President Donald <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">Trump continue to mount.</a>
Since Trump's self-declared "Liberation Day" on April 2, when he unveiled sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on U.S. trading partners, the market reaction has been swift and broadly negative. U.S. government bonds, traditionally a refuge during equity volatility, have failed to provide a safe haven.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Trump-Powell Tension Behind The Market Unwind</h3>
Market fragility was further exposed by Trump&#8217;s open attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
First, he wrote last week on Truth Social, "Jerome Powell is always too late and wrong. His termination cannot come fast enough." 
Then, during a press conference with Italy's Giorgia Meloni, he pushed the issue further: "If I want him out. He&#8217;ll be out of there real fast. Believe me."
Confirmation from National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett that the administration is "considering" removing Powell before his term ends in 2026, also added fuel to the fire.
On Monday, the Trump-Powell drama escalated again, sending shockwaves across currency markets, where central bank independence is viewed as a cornerstone of stability.
Trump posted on Truth Social, pushing for "preemptive" interest rate cuts. He wrote that with energy costs and food prices falling — sarcastically referencing Biden's "egg disaster" — inflation was virtually gone. The president warned of a slowing economy unless Powell, whom he labeled a "major loser," acted immediately.
He further accused Powell of political bias during the previous election cycle, claiming the Fed Chair only cut rates to help former President Joe Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris win the White House.
Betting markets currently assign a 23% chance on Powell no longer serving as Fed Chair by the end of the year. 
<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/LEAVEPOWELL-25/markets/LEAVEPOWELL-25-DEC31?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Triple Threat: Stocks, Bonds, Dollar All Down</h3>
The market has responded decisively. Since April 2, 2025:
<ul>
<li>The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>) has dropped more than 6%</li>
<li>The Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>), tracking the dollar index, has fallen 5.8%</li>
<li>The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) has tumbled over 8%</li>
</ul>
This rare triple selloff challenges a foundational assumption: that Treasuries typically gain when risk assets fall. 
The breakdown of this historical inverse correlation has led many to wonder: Are investors abandoning Treasuries?
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What the Official Data Shows, And What It Doesn't</h2>
The latest U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) data, covering February, doesn&#8217;t show large-scale foreign divestment. 
According to Goldman Sachs, foreign investors actually net purchased long-term U.S. securities in February, including Treasuries, equities and corporate bonds.
Agency securities saw some selling, but overall the data point to continued interest from global buyers—even as market volatility ramps up.
That said, February is now outdated. 
With April&#8217;s turbulence unfolding post-TIC cutoff, the latest exchange-traded fund flows could offer more immediate clues about investor behavior.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">ETF Flows Reveal a More Nuanced Picture</h3>
According to data from ETFDB.com through April 18, there's no evidence of broad-based exodus from Treasury ETFs. 
Despite some rotation out of long-duration ETFs like TLT and Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EDV#NYSE">EDV</a>), short- and mid-duration Treasury ETFs have attracted strong inflows during the month. 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>ETF Name </th>
<th>April Flows</th>
<th>Trend Insight</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF </td>
<td>-$2.85 billion</td>
<td>Outflows have outweighed inflows since September 2024. </td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF</td>
<td>-$385 million</td>
<td>Worst monthly outflow since data began in 2015</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOVT#NYSE">GOVT</a>)</td>
<td>+$78 million</td>
<td>Modest recovery after March's $2.95 billion outflow</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHY#NASDAQ">SHY</a>)</td>
<td>+$1.2 billion</td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 3-7 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEI#NYSE">IEI</a>)</td>
<td>+$897 million</td>
<td>Highest inflows since July 2022</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHV#NASDAQ">SHV</a>)</td>
<td>+$2.94 billion</td>
<td>Best month since February 2023</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NYSE">IEF</a>)</td>
<td>+$230 million</td>
<td>Four straight months of inflows</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGIT#NASDAQ">VGIT</a>)</td>
<td>+$770 million</td>
<td>Strongest inflows since June 2024</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vanguard Short-Term Treasury ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VGSH#NASDAQ">VGSH</a>)</td>
<td>+$505 million</td>
<td>On pace for fourth straight positive month</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>PIMCO 25+ Year Zero Coupon U.S. Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ZROZ#NYSE">ZROZ</a>)</td>
<td>+$3.55 million</td>
<td>Minimal activity; flows remain stagnant since October 2024</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Data as of April 18, 2025</figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What About China?</h3>
There's also speculation that major foreign holders, especially China, could be reducing exposure to U.S. government debt in retaliation for tariffs. 
Yet, Goldman Sachs analysts see little evidence of that.
They indicated the recent dislocations are "more likely related to position unwinds by levered investors than significant real money (domestic or international) selling," a view also recently expressed by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/scott-bessent">U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent</a> during a Bloomberg interview. 
As Goldman highlighted, the dollar/yuan exchange rate behavior does not support the idea of major Chinese repatriation—
if Beijing were dumping Treasuries, USD/CNY would likely face sharp downward pressure, but the opposite has happened.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">No Sign Of A Treasury Crisis, Yet</h3>
The bottom line: while some repositioning out of longer-dated Treasuries has been repositioned, ETF flows suggest no broad investor flight from the Treasury market.
If anything, there is a tilt toward shorter maturities, likely reflecting a desire to hedge against both rate volatility and political uncertainty.
Until more recent TIC data is available in June, ETF flows remain the best window into investor sentiment and so far, they suggest the panic narrative may be premature.
Now Read: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/04/44886209/if-you-had-bet-on-gold-after-the-1971-nixon-shock-youd-have-beaten-the-sp-500-unless-you-did-this-one-thing">If You Had Bet On Gold After The 1971 Nixon Shock, You&#8217;d Have Beaten The S&amp;P 500 — Unless You Did This One Thing</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

GOVT

iShares Trust Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund

iShares Trust Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

VGIT

VGSH

Are Investors Selling US Treasuries As Trump Attacks Powell? Here's What Latest ETF Flows Tell You

When stock market volatility erupts — as it has during global trade tensions, changing Fed policy, and fresh inflationary pressures — the bond market is meant to act as a financial lifeboat. And <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds">recently, it ha</a>s. 
The biggest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">Treasury bond ETFs</a>, such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TLT#NASDAQ">TLT</a>), retained their footing and moved higher, reminding investors why bonds remain a cornerstone of portfolio stability.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44772011/gold-miners-go-parabolic-gdx-hits-2012-highs-newmont-soars-9">Gold Miners Go Parabolic: GDX Hits 2012 Highs, Newmont Soars 9%</a>
But it&#8217;s not only old-school buy-and-hold passive strategies that are in favor. Investors increasingly gravitate toward actively managed bond ETFs, wagering that clever managers can ride the rate rollercoaster more effectively than a fixed index.
While active stock pickers again struggled, active bond managers quietly won, writes a <a href="https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/spiva/spiva-us-year-end-2024.pdf">report </a>by S&amp;P Global&#8217;s SPIVA Scorecard. It discovered that most active bond funds beat their indexed counterparts in 11 of 16 fixed-income categories last year — a striking reversal of the long-standing narrative that active management doesn&#8217;t pay.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Treasury ETFs Take Center Stage</h2>
During the latest round of market upheaval, Treasury bond ETFs attracted billions of dollars in flows as investors flocked to find shelter from the tempest. According to Morningstar:
<ul>
<li>The Bronze-rated iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IEF#NASDAQ">IEF</a>) attracted $2.6 billion between April 3 and April 7</li>
<li>The shorter-duration SPDR Portfolio Intermediate Term Treasury ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPTI#NYSE">SPTI</a>) attracted $1.6 billion. </li>
</ul>
Investors preferred low credit-risk vehicles but were still on the fence about the amount of interest rate risk they were willing to endure.
The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BND#NASDAQ">BND</a>) and the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGG#NYSE">AGG</a>) were also in hot demand. Unlike past bear markets, however, these passive giants were matched by flows into actively managed &#8220;enhanced core&#8221; bond funds — strategies that try to beat the likes of AGG, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/bonds-are-back-in-market-crash-what-investors-are-buying-changed.html">according </a>to CNBC. Active enhanced core funds attracted five times more money than their passive counterparts in the core bond space this year, ETFaction says.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/04/44767888/how-intels-ceo-pick-could-jolt-chip-stocks-and-etfs">How Intel&#8217;s CEO Pick Could Jolt Chip Stocks And ETFs</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Emergence Of Ultrashort ETFs</h2>
Ultrashort bond ETFs were also front and center, serving as cash substitutes during the mayhem. 
According to Morningstar, the SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIL#NYSE">BIL</a>) received $3.5 billion in inflows from April 3 to 7. The iShares 0-3 Month Treasury Bond ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGOV#NYSE">SGOV</a>) took in another $1.1 billion. 
With modest yields and little risk, these funds are now the parking lots of choice for investors who want to hold capital without locking it up for a longer duration.
Still, not all parts of the ultrashort segment thrived. Riskier plays like the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JAAA#NYSE">JAAA</a>) — which had tripled in size in just 12 months — saw a reversal of fortune, bleeding over $1 billion recently as investors moved away from higher credit risk, per Morningstar report.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What&#8217;s Next?</h2>
The Federal Reserve continues to fight inflation, while policy confusion hurts the economic outlook. Yet, bond market forces are in transition. Rather than simply going into hiding — they&#8217;re getting more subtle in their approach. Passive ETFs remain in the picture, but the increasing demand for actively managed Treasury and core bond funds represents a new fixed-income era.
As Treasury ETFs provide a sound hedge and active bond managers are justifying their role, the new bond market playbook may not be so passive after all.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/health-care/25/04/44746774/smart-investors-are-watching-these-3-etfs-after-surprise-jobs-data-beat">Smart Investors Are Watching These 3 ETFs After Surprise Jobs Data Beat</a></li>
</ul>
Image: Shutterstock

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