Speculators are dialing back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2025 ahead of the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting, as inflation concerns cast doubt on the central bank's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44364688/feds-march-meeting-expected-to-signal-no-hurry-on-rate-cuts-as-powell-likely-to-tread-carefully">willingness to ease policy.</a>



Data from Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated betting platform, indicates that traders are shifting bets toward fewer than three rate cuts. 



The most favored scenario now anticipates two cuts, carrying a 24% implied probability. Notably, the likelihood of just one rate cut jumped seven percentage points in a single day to 19%.



Betting-implied odds currently indicate that the most preferred outcome among retail bettors is two rate cuts at a 24% implied chance.



The Fed's December &#8220;dot plot&#8221; signaled a median expectation for two rate cuts in 2025, a downgrade from the four cuts it had projected in September. 



While retail bettors have turned more cautious, broader financial markets remain slightly more optimistic. Fed funds futures, tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, fully price in three rate cuts by December 2024, with a 35% probability of a fourth cut. 



This discrepancy suggests that institutional investors may still believe in a more accommodative Fed policy than retail traders do.



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXRATECUTCOUNT-25DEC31?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What's Driving The Shift?</h3>



One factor weighing on rate-cut expectations is the risk that the Fed could revise inflation projections higher, particularly in response to higher trade tariffs mandated by President Donald Trump. 



December, the central bank had already raised its 2025 inflation forecast, projecting headline Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation at 2.5%, up from 2.1% in September. Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, was also revised up to 2.5% from 2.2%.



According to both Bank of America and Goldman Sachs estimates, inflation estimates could be upwardly revised to 2.7% on Wednesday. 



Betting-implied odds tracked by Kalshi reveal that speculators expect inflation to average 3% in 2025. 



<iframe loading="lazy" src="https://kalshi.com/external-widgets/events/KXACPI-2025?color_scheme=light&#038;widget_size=large&#038;utm_campaign=benzinga_widget" width="552px" height="400px" style="border:0"></iframe>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">A Dovish Tilt Or Continued Caution?</h3>



Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a wait-and-see stance. Last week, he reiterated that the Fed does not need to rush into rate changes, reinforcing the need for more economic clarity before making any moves.



The consensus among economists is that the Fed will hold rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% at this week's meeting. Betting markets imply a near-unanimous probability of no change, but the focus will be on the Fed's revised economic outlook.



"The Fed will most likely indicate they remain data dependent," Chris Fasciano, chief market strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, said in an email.



"Considering the better-than-expected CPI and PPI data released last week, if this trend continues it should allow the Fed to continue their rate cut path later in the year."



"The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to stay put this month. The market's focus will be on the guidance and the updated FOMC forecast," said Julien Lafargue, chief market strategist at Barclays Private Bank and Wealth Management.



He added that the Fed's projections may reflect weaker GDP growth, but the dot plot is unlikely to show a major shift.



The U.S. dollar index – as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) – fell to a six-month low on Tuesday, as fears over U.S. economic performance persist among investors. 



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</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Econ #s

Economics

Federal Reserve

Speculators Trim 2025 Rate-Cut Bets Ahead Of March Fed Meeting As Inflation Risks Rise

Uncertainty has taken over the market. Business and consumer sentiment data are souring as markets tumble and tariff policy continues to lack rhyme or reason. The St Louis Fed's US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has spiked to its highest level since December 2020. The University of Michigan Survey of Consumers dropped nearly 10% from January to February and is now down 17% year-over-year.



Business owners continue to mention tariff uncertainty in surveys. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Small Business Optimism Index fell in February while the NFIB Uncertainty Index rose to its second-highest recorded level. Complicating matters are increasing inflation expectations for 2025, which could put the Federal Reserve in a tight spot between cutting rates to spur growth or keeping rates unchanged to limit higher prices. 



This precarious cocktail has investors on edge as U.S. stocks lag global markets. While it&#8217;s too soon to talk about a recession being imminent, it&#8217;s a good time to start thinking defensively.



Here are five stocks with solid fundamentals in sectors that tend to do well when the economy slows.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Republic Services Inc. </h2>



When investors think of waste management services, they usually conjure the aptly-named Waste Management Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WM#NYSE">WM</a>). However, the lesser-known Republic Services (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RSG#NYSE">RSG</a>) also runs integrated commercial, residential and industrial solid waste services with over 200 landfills and an additional 246 transfer stations. Contrasted to its larger rival WM, RSG has a comparable P/E ratio, better margins and a significantly better Price to Free Cash Flow (P/FCF) per Share (35.05 vs 41.89). The stock has also increased over 27% in the last 12 months, compared to just 8.7% for WM shares.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXeQYUQ7_3cydY16LLDXhy3tPx67ZBSbD7zAXm0LZSi_YK4jG4znK7-82n9tBY5nW0cqOW7is2NPxTCd_cARmCuMp4QR8eNg7kqvhrXpbLNFEC4kUxm6UeZZqvS3ZrUS1B9-0NtJPQ?key=95UsgwGzx44WuMDzrgOVhBOD" alt=""/></figure>



RSG shares pulled back in the first week of March, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently diverged upward, indicating that volume may be accumulating for the next leg higher. RSG also scores well in two crucial Benzinga Edge metrics: 86.20 in Momentum and 88.57 in Quality. On March 4, analysts at CIBC upgraded the stock from Neutral to Outperform, with a price target of $265. UBS, Goldman Sachs and Stifel also boosted price targets on the stock in the last month.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc. </h2>



Dollar stores and discount retailers are often popular picks during economic slowdowns. Still, investors must be careful in this environment not to count on stocks with thin margins and heavy reliance on imports. Ollie's Bargain Outlet (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/OLLI#NASDAQ">OLLI</a>) is a purveyor of excess buildup, meaning it purchases overstocked or overproduced items from manufacturers and wholesalers and sells them at its warehouses at a deep discount.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXfcG4FxVYqcba9omEUNAKhflz5JRExFu1Px6XY5nPkQcPj67Y-TVlR7m6_ZlshjheXqH-h9pqOR38SrnD7MdEu0b4YSeZYeJwzQDKHNFYHShJVJsOyvNU8z4qDFgWmZtPRSpp08LA?key=95UsgwGzx44WuMDzrgOVhBOD" alt=""/></figure>



Ollie's business model gives it a leg up over traditional discount retailers like Dollar Tree. The company's 9% profit margin towers over figures from Dollar Tree, Dollar General and even larger chains like Walmart and Target. Ollie's has boosted revenue by nearly 8% year-over-year, but the stock is down almost 10% in the last three months.



However, as the chart above shows, a buying opportunity could be materializing right now. The upward momentum has stalled, but a bullish wedge is forming, which could signal buyers are consolidating in preparation for a new breakout. Keep an eye on this pattern for a potential breakout as the price range continues to condense.&nbsp;



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Kimberly-Clark Corp. </h2>



Household products like paper towels, toilet paper, hygiene products, detergents and other cleaning supplies have very inelastic demand, so these companies are often popular investments during recessions or economic slowdowns. Kimberly-Clark Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KMB#NYSE">KMB</a>) is our pick for this particular industry thanks to its attractive valuation, strong dividend and potential breakout from a multi-year trading range.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXe-m4j-kU00Tja9IKDpC0ML9BehtIIiHcg_Khf25LWmceJmSwZPKUigPpvh_NxgYsCwZngce9DWDIFOzAVATHMzu0VkQQDJnwaUC8ZHpMBDVtQLNa6u25Fx6_7_M1th3U1ieBQ50A?key=95UsgwGzx44WuMDzrgOVhBOD" alt=""/></figure>



KMB shares recently reached a nearly five-year high, smashing through a resistance level that had been in place since the end of 2020. This promising technical signal is supported by strong fundamental data as well. KMB trades at just 19 times earnings, far lower than competitors like Proctor and Gamble and Colgate-Palmolive. It also trades at just 2.4 times sales while maintaining a healthy 12.7% profit margin. KMB pays a 3.5% dividend and the recent breakout has boosted its Benzinga Edge Momentum score to 71.54 &#8211; a rare occurrence in the consumer staples sector.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Unum Group </h2>



Here's an insurance company that very few investors have heard about but has the prettiest-looking chart of the bunch. Unum Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNM#NYSE">UNM</a>) provides individual income protection plans to clients in the United States, United Kingdom and Poland while also offering long-term care, life and employee-benefit insurance plans through segments like Colonial Life and Closed Block.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXdknAMM85XGJH8djOqkIt-uokaPzFLoS-Iv7YSxhVd04dtjb74hN7kl6219XOMHhTQmGfzDsvfpNbR72bwlBbkPS1k6hINLxoO1eCGpJme2MxixnPxzuqHp2vryBg0MQS1b9A2n?key=95UsgwGzx44WuMDzrgOVhBOD" alt=""/></figure>



Unum Group performed exceptionally well during the 2022 bear market, posting positive gains when most stocks suffered prolonged drawdowns. UNM shares staged a rally in 2024 and have risen by over 60% in the last 12 months. From a fundamental standpoint, the company is in a strong position with 1.27 P/B Value Per Share, 8.3 P/E ratio and 13.9% profit margin. UNM shares also grade out exceptionally well in three crucial Benzinga Edge metrics: Momentum (94.60), Value (89.28) and Quality (84.32).



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Berkshire Hathaway Inc.</h2>



When Uncle Warren starts raising cash, investors start paying attention. The Oracle of Omaha has been selling stock to increase Berkshire's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>) cash pile, and while a 94-year-old insurance CEO may have different investment goals than the rest of us, it&#8217;s worth noting when Buffett begins stacking dry powder.



<figure class="wp-block-image"><img decoding="async" src="https://lh7-rt.googleusercontent.com/docsz/AD_4nXc-bLC_d9K-RvtDyN99OcIiYYgI6WjcwCG67aV6slY2NIeGDqcU2N7BywlpEWDUzQZb7zi1f-wpQoiSiwpw1f-NsuVs-Dr2nMAl6nZQ312bH3LGPs0kRmEckODPZ51eaJrONLSa?key=95UsgwGzx44WuMDzrgOVhBOD" alt=""/></figure>



Buffett's cash pile is not unusual considering his long-term track record. While Buffett praises buy-and-hold strategies for retail investors, he himself has always been a bit of a market timer. His cash horde suggests he's waiting for volatility to wane before putting new capital to work.



Whether a recession materializes or not, stocks like BRK.B are good places to harbor while waiting for calmer waters to return. Berkshire's free cash flow pile stands at an impressive $11.6 billion with the stock trading at 12 times earnings. The insurance giant also grades well in Benzinga Edge in terms of Momentum (82.74) and Value (73.69). The stock chart shows some consolidation over the last week and the upward trend remains in place.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">How To Trade The Fed's Next Move: Live On Wednesday</h2>



Markets are on edge ahead of the Fed's March 20 announcement. Stocks, bonds and key sectors are set to move fast—do you have a strategy in place? Join Nic Chahine <a href="https://events2.benzinga.com/nic-chahine-webinar-wed-mar19-2025-registration">live on Wednesday</a>, March 19, at 6 PM ET to get a real-time trading blueprint for one of the biggest market events of the year. Register now.



Photo: Shutterstock

Large Cap

Mid Cap

Opinion

Trading Ideas

OLLI

5 Recession-Proof Stocks To Consider As Economic Fears Grow

Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) CEO Jensen Huang announced Tuesday a partnership with General Motors Company (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>) for its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/self-driving">self-driving segment</a>.



"The time for autonomous vehicles has arrived,&#8221; Huang said at the GPU Technology Conference (GTC).



GM will build next-generation vehicles on Nvidia Drive AGX, based on the Nvidia Blackwell architecture. The partnership includes factory planning, robotics, in-vehicle hardware for advanced driver-assistance systems and in-cabin safety driving experiences.



"GM has enjoyed a longstanding partnership with NVIDIA, leveraging its GPUS across our operations," GM CEO Mary Barra said in a statement. "AI not only optimizes manufacturing processes and accelerates virtual testing but also helps us build smarter vehicles while empowering our workforce to focus on craftmanship."



Barra said the partnership will allow the automotive company to unlock innovation for vehicle manufacturing.



GM has been investing in Nvidia GPU platforms to train <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/artificial-intelligence">artificial intelligence</a> models. The collaboration now expands to plant design and operations.



"We are thrilled to partner with GM to build AI systems tailored to their vision, craft and know-how," Huang added.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44352209/gtc-2025-could-reignite-nvidias-stock-rally-but-only-if-b300-ai-server-roadmap-and-scaling-concerns-are-addressed-says-top-analyst">GTC 2025 Could Reignite Nvidia&#8217;s Stock Rally, But Only If B300, AI Server Roadmap, And Scaling Concerns Are Addressed, Says Top Analyst</a>



GM wasn&#8217;t the only partnership hyped by Huang at the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/top-stories/25/03/44313558/nvidia-stock-reached-all-time-highs-after-jensen-huangs-ces-keynote-will-next-weeks-gtc-spark-another-surge">2025 GTC Conference.</a>



"AI is going to go into every industry," Huang said, highlighting the use of Nvidia GPUs in the data center of Tesla vehicles.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Huang Shares Excitement For Physical AI, Robotics</h2>



During his GTC keynote, Huang expressed optimism for AI across many sectors, including physical AI, or robotics.



Huang explored an AI timeline and how, over the last 10 years, its focus shifted from generative AI to agentic AI to the new wave, physical AI.



"Artificial intelligence has made extraordinary progress," Huang said, explaining how each wave of AI opens up new market opportunities and new partners.



"A new era of AI we call physical AI,&#8221; he said.



A chart shared by Huang showed the demand for Blackwell GPUs that have just started shipping, which comes from the growth of generative AI, agentic AI and now physical AI.



Huang also announced Nvidia Dynamo, a distributed inference-serving library. The Nvidia CEO said Dynamo is an open-source operating system being used by the company's partners.



At the start of his speech, Huang said GTC has been called the Woodstock of AI in the past and this year it was being called the Super Bowl of AI.



"Everybody wins at this year's Super Bowl."



Price Action: Nvidia stock trades at $115.83 at the time of writing, down 3.1% on the day. Nvidia stock has traded between $75.61 and $153.13 over the last 52 weeks. Shares are down 15% year-to-date in 2025 and up 34% over the last year.



GM stock saw a quick lift from red to green after Huang's announcement. At the time of writing, GM stock was down 1.3% to $48.37. It has a 52-week trading range of $38.96 to $59.39.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<iframe loading="lazy" title="&#x1f534; WATCH LIVE: GTC March 2025 Keynote with NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang" width="500" height="281" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/XjZFODtmNhQ?feature=oembed" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share" referrerpolicy="strict-origin-when-cross-origin" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/02/43991607/nvidia-q4-earnings-highlights-revenue-beat-eps-beat-demand-for-blackwell-is-amazing">Nvidia Q4 Earnings Highlights: Revenue Beat, EPS Beat, &#8216;Demand For Blackwell Is Amazing&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Tech

NVDA

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Announces GM Partnership: 'The Time For Autonomous Vehicles Has Arrived'

Google parent Alphabet, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) announced on Tuesday that it has signed an agreement to acquire cloud security platform Wiz for $32 billion. Experts weigh in on Google's<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44376743/google-parent-alphabet-to-acquire-wiz-in-32-billion-deal-its-biggest-bet-yet"> largest acquisition ever.&nbsp;</a>



Expert Ideas: J.P. Morgan analyst Doug Anmuth sees the Wiz acquisition as strengthening Google's cybersecurity suit and allowing for safer and more efficient multicloud operations.  



"We believe the Wiz acquisition will further strengthen Google's multicloud value proposition &amp; deepen its enterprise relationships as Wiz is used by over 50% of Fortune 100 companies," the analyst wrote.&nbsp;&nbsp;



Read Next: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/specialty-etfs/25/03/44367584/black-swan-hedge-fund-posts-4000-profits-during-covid-19-market-crash-heres-how">&#8216;Black Swan&#8217; Hedge Fund Posts 4,000% Profits During COVID-19 Market Crash: Here&#8217;s How</a>



Anmuth noted the expected closing date for the deal is 2026 and believes the longer-than-usual closing reflects the regulatory scrutiny the acquisition will face. He sees the deal as a type of bellwether for the Trump administration's tolerance for large-scale mergers and acquisitions, which will have broader implications for other large-cap tech companies. 



&#8220;This deal will get careful scrutiny,&#8221; Michael Carrier, an antitrust law professor at Rutgers Law School, told Yahoo Finance.&nbsp;



&#8220;But at the end of the day, I believe it is likely to be approved given an anticipated less aggressive blocking of mergers and the AI angle,&#8221; Carrier added.&nbsp;



GOOG shares fell 2.34% on Tuesday following the announcement of the deal, which is Google's largest ever and also the largest ever in the cybersecurity sector.&nbsp;



Read Next:&nbsp;



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/events/25/03/44380519/soundhound-ai-at-2025-nvidia-gpu-technology-conference-in-car-voice-commerce-ecosystem-a-game-changer-for-automotivetech">SoundHound AI At 2025 NVIDIA GPU Technology Conference: In-car Voice Commerce Ecosystem &#8216;A Game-Changer For #AutomotiveTech&#8217;&nbsp;</a></li>
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Image: Shutterstock

News

Movers

GOOG

GOOGL

Google's Wiz Acquisition Strengthens Cybersecurity Suite, Adds To 'Multicloud Value Proposition': Analyst

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday afternoon as traders reacted to President Donald Trump&#8216;s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which laid the groundwork for a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ukraine">potential ceasefire in Ukraine. </a>



The West Texas Intermediate light crude, tracked by the United States Oil Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USO#NYSE">USO</a>), fell over 1% to $67 a barrel, reversing earlier session gains and snapping a two-day winning streak. 



Energy stocks, which on Monday had posted their best two-day streak since October 2022, took a breather as the market digested the geopolitical developments.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Was Discussed In the Trump-Putin Call?</h3>



According to a White House readout, Trump and Putin agreed to an immediate halt on attacks targeting Russian and Ukrainian energy and infrastructure sites for 30 days. Additionally, they outlined plans for negotiations in the Middle East to establish a maritime ceasefire in the Black Sea.



Trump, in a post on Truth Social, described the call as "very good and productive," adding that "many elements of a Contract for Peace were discussed." He indicated that both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy "would like to see an end of the hostility. 



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">My phone conversation today with President Putin of Russia was a very good and productive one. We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this…&mdash; Trump Posts on &#120143; (@trump_repost) <a href="https://twitter.com/trump_repost/status/1902070296246669480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



&#8220;We agreed to an immediate ceasefire on all energy and infrastructure, with an understanding that we will work quickly towards a complete ceasefire and, ultimately, an end to this very horrible war,&#8221; Trump wrote.



Putin, according to Russian sources, said that any resolution must be "comprehensive, sustainable, and long-term" while addressing Russia's security concerns. The Kremlin also stated that stopping foreign military aid to Ukraine is a key condition for de-escalation.



&#8220;The key condition for preventing escalation and pursuing a diplomatic resolution is the complete cessation of foreign military assistance and intelligence-sharing with Kyiv,&#8221; the Russian statement read.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">How Energy Stocks Reacted</h3>



Energy stocks that had posted their strongest two-day rally since October 2022 paused their advance. 



The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) traded flat by 3:00 p.m. ET, though it remains up over 5% year-to-date, making it the best-performing S&amp;P 500 sector.



Among key oil equities, Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOM#NYSE">XOM</a>) slipped 0.2%, while Chevron Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CVX#NYSE">CVX</a>) edged 0.7% higher. 



Meanwhile, natural gas stocks outperformed, with EQT Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQT#NYSE">EQT</a>) and Antero Resources Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AR#NYSE">AR</a>) climbing 2% and 3%, respectively. Antero extended its winning streak to seven consecutive sessions. 



U.S. natural gas prices at the Henry Hub facility rose 0.9% to $4.095 per million British thermal units.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44379453/equity-exposure-plummets-cash-holdings-jump-as-investors-rethink-us-exceptionalism-bank-of-america-survey">Equity Exposure Plummets, Cash Holdings Jump As Investors Rethink &#8216;US Exceptionalism,&#8217; Bank Of America Survey</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Government

Sector ETFs

Global

ETFs

Oil Prices Slip, Energy Stocks Pause As Trump-Putin Call Signals Ukraine Ceasefire Progress

Investor confidence is slipping fast, with cash levels surging and U.S. equity exposure crumbling to two-year lows, according to Bank of America's <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/expert-ideas">Global Fund Manager Survey. </a>



The shift marks the biggest pullback in risk appetite in years, as fears of economic stagnation and a potential trade war weigh on markets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are Investors Losing Faith In The US Market?</h3>



The survey, released Tuesday by Bank of America&#8217;s chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett, reveals a sharp drop in investor optimism, with stock allocations plunging and cash holdings rising.



The most notable shift in sentiment is the fading belief in &#8220;U.S. exceptionalism.&#8221; A staggering 69% of fund managers surveyed believe that the theme—centered on the idea that the U.S. economy and stock market can outperform the rest of the world—has peaked.



This has led to a record rotation out of U.S. stocks, with allocation dropping 40 percentage points month-over-month to a net 23% underweight, the lowest since June 2023.



Allocations to global equities have slumped from a net 35% overweight in February to just 6% in March—the lowest level in over four months and one of the largest monthly declines on record. 



Instead of moving into bonds, investors have parked their capital in cash, with allocation rising from from 3.5% to 4.1%.



Although the shift has effectively ended the contrarian &#8220;sell signal&#8221; from Dec. 17, 2024, Hartnett remains cautious, noting that fund managers are not heavily positioned for a recession or a deep bear market.



&#8220;No one is long recession/bonds, and FMS positioning is nowhere near extreme bear/close-your-eyes-and-buy levels,&#8221; he said.



Last week, the S&amp;P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>), fell into a correction after dropping more than 10% from its February peak.



Since 1998, the S&amp;P 500 has experienced 11 corrections of at least 10%, with an average decline of 14.3%. Based on current levels, this would imply a potential drop to 5,268.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Macro Pessimism Nears Record Highs</h3>



Bank of America&#8217;s broadest measure of sentiment, which factors in cash levels, equity allocations and growth expectations, fell from 6.4 in February to 3.8 in March—a seven-month low.



The drop represents the largest single-month decline since March 2020 and the seventh-largest in 24 years. Historically, such sharp sentiment swings have only occurred during major financial crises, including the Great Recession in August 2007 and the European debt crisis in May 2010.



Fund managers are bracing for economic headwinds, with 63% expecting a weaker global economy in the next 12 months. 



This marks the second-largest monthly increase in macro pessimism on record, with data stretching back to 1994. The uncertainty surrounding global trade and inflationary pressures has driven investors toward safer assets.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Are Fund Managers Betting On?</h3>



Gold remains the favored hedge against a potential economic downturn. If a full-blown trade war erupts, 58% of surveyed fund managers anticipate gold will be the best-performing asset. 



Since the start of the year, the bullion &#8211; tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) &#8211; has rallied by 14.3%.



The so-called &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221;—referring to tech giants like Microsoft Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NYSE">MSFT</a>), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>), NVIDIA Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>), Amazon Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>), Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) and Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) —remains the most crowded trade, though enthusiasm has waned, with participation falling to its lowest level since November 2023.



Read now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44367075/chinese-stocks-poised-for-best-quarter-vs-sp-500-since-2007-as-investors-bet-on-policy-turnaround">Chinese Stocks Poised For Best Quarter Vs. S&amp;P 500 Since 2007 As Investors Bet On Policy Turnaround</a></li>
</ul>



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Equities

Macro Economic Events

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Commodities

Insider Trades

AAPL

AMZN

MSFT

TSLA

Equity Exposure Plummets, Cash Holdings Jump As Investors Rethink 'US Exceptionalism,' Bank Of America Survey

Volatility returned to Wall Street on Tuesday, with all major indexes trading in negative territory by midday in New York. Investors weighed the economic impact of potential tariffs from the Trump administration while questioning whether the long-standing dominance of <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44379453/equity-exposure-plummets-cash-holdings-jump-as-investors-rethink-us-exceptionalism-bank-of-america-survey">U.S. equities has peaked. </a>



The S&amp;P 500 fell 1.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 dropped 1.5%. Blue-chip stocks provided no relief with the Dow Jones down 0.8%.



Data from Bank of America's Global Fund Manager Survey, released Tuesday, signaled a significant shift in asset allocation. Investor exposure to U.S. equities plunged 40 percentage points month-over-month to a net 23% underweight, the lowest level since June 2023. 



The Federal Reserve is set to hold its second policy meeting of the year on Wednesday. While markets widely expect interest rates to remain at 4%-4.25%, investors brace for updated economic projections that may reflect higher inflation estimates due to the tariff impact.



All Magnificent Seven tech giants traded in the red on Tuesday, with the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MAGS#NYSE">MAGS</a>) hitting a seven-month low.



Meta Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) tumbled 14% month-to-date, on track for its worst monthly performance since October 2022. Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) has plummeted 21% since February, marking its worst two-month decline since November 2008.



Amid rising economic uncertainty, gold surged over 1% to $3,040 per ounce, as haven demand intensified. The SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) is on track for its sixth consecutive session of gains, the longest streak since April 2024.



Meanwhile, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) remained under pressure, sliding 2.6% to $81,855.



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Performance In Major U.S. Indices, ETFs</h1>



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Major Indices</td><td>Price</td><td>Chg %</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>41,492.66</td><td>-0.8%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>2,050.11</td><td>-0.9%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>5,612.52</td><td>-1.1%</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>19,507.30</td><td>-1.5%</td></tr></tbody></table><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 1 p.m. ET </figcaption></figure>



According to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/?utm_source=BZprocontent&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a>&nbsp;data:



<ul>
<li>The&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) fell 1.1% to $560.89.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DIA#NYSE">DIA</a>) dropped 0.9% to $415.47.</li>



<li>The tech-heavy&nbsp;Invesco QQQ Trust Series&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>)&nbsp;sunk 1.6% to $475.28.</li>



<li>The&nbsp;iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IWM#NYSE">IWM</a>) eased 1.1% to $203.16. </li>



<li>The&nbsp;Energy&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) outperformed, yet still down 0.2%; the&nbsp;Communication Services&nbsp;Select Sector SPDR Fund&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLC#NYSE">XLC</a>) was the worst sector performer, down 1.8%.</li>
</ul>



<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Tuesday&#8217;s Stock Movers</h1>



<ul>
<li>XPeng Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPEV#NYSE">XPEV</a>) tumbled 7.7% in reaction to quarterly earnings. </li>



<li>Other stocks reacting to corporate earnings included KE Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BEKE#NYSE">BEKE</a>), down 10.3%, Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TME#NYSE">TME</a>), up 11.9% and Elbit System Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ESLT#NASDAQ">ESLT</a>), up 11%. </li>



<li>Lucid Group Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LCID#NASDAQ">LCID</a>) rallied 11.6% after Morgan Stanley upgraded the stock from Underweight to Equal-weight.</li>



<li>Sarepta Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SRPT#NASDAQ">SRPT</a>) plunged 21% after reporting the death of a Duchenne muscular dystrophy patient who had been treated with Elevidys.</li>
</ul>



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$BTC

BEKE

ESLT

LCID

MAGS

SRPT

XPEV

Wall Street Falters, Magnificent Seven Hit 7-Month Lows, Gold Rockets On Haven Demand: What's Driving Markets Tuesday?

A Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>) analyst is significantly lowering the price target on the stock with concerns on full self-driving pricing and vehicle demand.



The analyst note comes with continued reports of low sales and used vehicle prices.



The Tesla Analyst: RBC Capital analyst Tom Narayan maintained an Outperform rating on Tesla while lowering the price target from $440 to $320.



"Much of the attention around Tesla has centered on its recent delivery performance in Jan and Feb in Europe and China," Narayan said.



Demand fears are likely overblown, according to Narayan. Europe and China, where Tesla is losing market share, represent a small portion of Tesla's overall vehicle sales, he adds.



Along with the potential for demand concerns, the analyst lowers FSD pricing assumptions and robotaxi penetration rates.



Narayan said FSD pricing could drop from $100/month today to $50/month in 2026.



"Level 2+ autonomy offerings are increasingly becoming standard features with some OEMs intentionally not seeking to make it a profit center, but rather as a product differentiator."



Tesla could also see lower than previously anticipated market share for robotaxis in Europe and China. It&#8217;s likely that domestic OEMs "dominate the market,&#8221; he says.



The latest price and market share changes lead to a lower sum-of-the-parts valuation with FSD going from $383 billion to $211 billion and robotaxis going from $879 billion to $641 billion.



Narayan also forecasts lower deliveries with an estimate of 11% delivery growth in fiscal 2025, down from an original forecast of 14% delivery growth.



Why It's Important: The big question from Narayan and other analysts is whether the lower delivery numbers are due to "political dynamics,&#8221; or have to do with the planned factory shutdowns for the Model Y refresh. Perhaps it&#8217;s a combination of both.



Electrek recently highlighted the sharp decline in used car prices for Tesla vehicles. The report said Tesla used car prices are falling three times the rate of the overall used car market.



Using data from CarGurus, the report said Tesla used prices are down 3.7% over the last three months and down 7.3% over the last year, compared to drops of 1.1% and 2.7% respectively for the overall used car market.



Among Tesla vehicles, the used car prices for the Cybertruck and Model S have been hit hardest falling 11.5% and 8.3% respectively over the last three months.



Benzinga recently polled readers to see if President Donald Trump&#8216;s purchase and praise for Tesla would impact their future vehicle-buying activity.



&#8220;Donald Trump recently bought a Tesla. How does this affect your view of Tesla?&#8221; Benzinga asked.



Here are the results:



<ul>
<li>I will never own a Tesla: 53%</li>



<li>I&#8217;m more likely to buy a Tesla:&nbsp;23%</li>



<li>I&#8217;m less likely to buy a Tesla: 14%</li>



<li>I already own a Tesla: 10%</li>
</ul>



The poll may have some bad news for Tesla fans and investors with the majority saying they will never own a Tesla vehicle.



The good news is that of undecided non-Tesla owners, 23% said they are more likely to buy a Tesla while 14% said they are less likely to buy a Tesla on account of Trump&#8217;s purchase and sales pitch for the EV company.



Tesla&#8217;s sales have dropped sharply in recent weeks, accompanied by demonstrations and vandalization against the company&#8217;s&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44135841/elon-musk-slams-attacks-on-tesla-vehicles-after-incident-in-brookline-vandalism-is-not-free-speech" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">vehicles</a>, dealerships and charging hubs, according to&nbsp;<a href="https://abcnews.go.com/US/tesla-vehicles-destroyed-vandalized-musk-began-role-white/story?id=119677836" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ABC News</a>. Declining sales are evident not just in the U.S., but also&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44209579/unprecedented-slide-tesla-sales-plummet-45-in-europe-as-musks-net-worth-dives-5-2b-in-a-week" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">throughout Europe</a>,&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44069703/tesla-china-wholesale-numbers-are-unimportant-says-researcher-heres-what-matters-more" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">China</a>, and Australia.



A recent report from Electrek citing inventory checks and new order delivery timelines in the U.S. shows that so far Trump&#8217;s purchase and event has had&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/03/44346155/trumps-tesla-shoutout-falls-flat-no-spike-in-orders-or-inventory-movement" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a minimal impact&nbsp;</a>on Tesla&#8217;s sales and demand.



Tesla&#8217;s first-quarter sales figures, which will include the month of March will be among the most watched in recent years given boycotts, sales declines in Europe and now Trump&#8217;s sales pitch.



TSLA Price Action:&nbsp;Tesla stock is down 6% to $223.76 on Tuesday versus a 52-week trading range of $138.80 to $488.54. Tesla stock is down 41.0% year-to-date in 2025 and up 28.8% over the last year.



Tesla stock is now trading below where it was when Trump won the 2024 election. Tesla stock closed at $251.44 on Nov. 5 and opened for trading at $284.67 on Nov. 6 after&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/11/41768178/donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-to-win-2024-election" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump&#8217;s victory was confirmed</a>.



The stock is down over 50% from all-time highs set in December.



Now Read:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/03/44339973/trump-said-nobody-wants-to-buy-evs-2-years-ago-now-hes-endorsing-and-says-hes-buying-a-tesla-heres-what-else-hes-been-saying-about-evs">Trump Said &#8216;Nobody Wants To Buy&#8217; EVs 2 Years Ago—Now He&#8217;s Endorsing Tesla At The White House</a></li>
</ul>



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Analyst Color

Price Target

Reiteration

Analyst Ratings

Tesla Analyst Says Demand Fears 'Overblown,' But Has Some Concerns As Used Car Prices Plummet

Hesai Group (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HSAI#NASDAQ">HSAI</a>) stock is under pressure Tuesday after short seller Blue Orca Capital targeted the company in a new report alleging Hesai Group is actively <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/HSAI">lying to investors</a>.



What To Know: Blue Orca Capital released a short report on Tuesday, calling Hesai group a &#8220;Chinese scam.&#8221; The short seller believes the company is lying by insisting it has no involvement with the Chinese military. Blue Orca also raised concerns around the company&#8217;s financial disclosures.



&#8220;In short, we think Hesai is full of lies, from its suspect financials to its denials made to the government and in court regarding its LiDAR and the Chinese military. In our opinion, it is completely untrustworthy as a business and uninvestable as a stock,&#8221; the short seller said.



Benzinga has reached out to Hesai Group for comment on the report. 



Blue Orca alleged that Hesai has lied to investors and U.S. authorities about the use of its lidar technology for military purposes. The short seller provided images that it uncovered from Chinese government owned CCTV that appears to show a Chinese military vehicle equipped with a Hesai lidar system. 



The Department of Defense (DOD) placed Hesai Group on a list of companies designated as &#8220;Chinese military companies&#8221; in January 2024. Hesai sued the DOD in an attempt to be removed from the list. The short seller believes Hesai will lose the case and in turn become effectively blocked from any lucrative deals in the U.S. autonomous vehicles market.



&#8220;As such, we believe that Hesai will soon lose a customer cohort which historically accounted for 40% of its revenues and an estimated 57% of its gross profit,&#8221; the short seller said.



Check This Out: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports/25/03/44379231/warren-buffett-2025-march-madness-challenge-winner-no-longer-has-to-be-perfect-i-want-to-give-away-a-million-dollars">Warren Buffett 2025 March Madness Challenge Winner No Longer Has To Be Perfect: &#8216;I Want To Give Away A Million Dollars&#8217;</a>



Blue Orca also noted that Hesai Group shares surged late last year after the company reported that it became profitable. The short seller believes the profitability was a result of a $20 million break-up fee from its largest customer that was undisclosed to investors. Blue Orca also indicated that the company appears to be laying off up to 30% of its workforce. 



Hesai Group shares surged again last week after the company secured a multi-year deal with&nbsp;Mercedes-Benz&nbsp;to&nbsp;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/03/n44237694/hesai-selected-by-top-european-oem-for-exclusive-multi-year-lidar-contract-on-its-next-generation-" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">supply lidar sensors</a>, closing the day up more than 50%. The short seller poked holes in the notion that the deal is &#8220;exclusive.&#8221; Blue Orca is also skeptical given that Mercedes was unwilling to publicly confirm the deal. The short seller noted that Hesai Group founders sold $68.6 million of stock following the spike.



Blue Orca went on to raise concerns about inconsistent purchasing volumes with reported sales, &#8220;inexplicable&#8221; margin expansion and the withdrawal of the company&#8217;s IPO in China. 



&#8220;Ultimately, we do not think that U.S. authorities will permit a Chinese military company whose products are equipped on Chinese military vehicles to take advantage of the privilege of American capital markets,&#8221; the short seller said.



HSAI Price Action: Hesai Group shares are up nearly 300% over the past year. The stock was down 8.5% at $20.39 at the time of publication Tuesday, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.



Read Next:



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44379453/equity-exposure-plummets-cash-holdings-jump-as-investors-rethink-us-exceptionalism-bank-of-america-survey">Equity Exposure Plummets, Cash Holdings Jump As Investors Rethink &#8216;US Exceptionalism,&#8217; Bank Of America Survey</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock.

Asia

Short Sellers

Short Ideas

HSAI

Short Seller Says Hesai Group Stock Is A 'Chinese Scam'

President Donald Trump's proposal for a 200% tariff on European alcohol imports has sent shockwaves through the beverage industry, raising fears that champagne, cognac and high-end wines could soon be unaffordable for U.S. consumers and disappear <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/03/44301835/trump-threatens-200-tariff-on-european-wine-alcohol-stocks-react">from the market entirely.</a>



In an exclusive interview with Benzinga on Monday, Marten Lodewijks, President of IWRS America, a global leader in data and analytics for the beverage alcohol industry, said there is no scenario where a tariff of this magnitude does not inflict serious damage on European alcohol sales in the U.S. 



&#8220;China imposed a 220% tariff on Australian wine, and exports to China collapsed by 96%. That effectively shut down the entire export market,&#8221; he said, pointing to a precedent for how devastating such a move could be.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">The Data Speaks: What Past Tariffs Tell Us</h3>



Tariffs on alcohol are not new, and past data provides insight into their potential impact. 



In 2019, a 25% tariff on U.S. whiskey exports to Europe resulted in a 20% decline in sales within a year. A similar 25% tariff on Scotch whisky imports to the U.S. led to a 17% drop in sales.



&#8220;This would significantly harm the European export market to the U.S., which remains one of the most valuable in the world,&#8221; Lodewijks said. 



The U.S. is the largest market for European wines and spirits, accounting for nearly a fifth of their total product shipments.



In 2024, the U.S. imported $5.6 billion worth of wine and $5.5 billion in other alcoholic beverages from the European Union, according to data from the International Trade Centre.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Who Stands To Lose The Most?</h3>



The biggest losers would be high-end European producers, particularly those relying on U.S. demand. French champagne, Italian prosecco, Spanish wines, and Scotch whisky all risk seeing sharp sales declines. 



American consumers, especially those accustomed to premium European wines and spirits, would also feel the impact through higher prices. 



Surprisingly, some U.S. whiskey producers could also be hit, as Europe and the UK—two of the biggest markets for American whiskey—may retaliate with their own tariffs. 



&#8220;The biggest market for U.S. whiskey is precisely the one facing tariffs,&#8221; Lodewijks said. 



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Are There Any Winners?</h3>



Not all companies will be on the losing end. American craft whiskey and bourbon producers could see an uptick in demand as European imports become too expensive. 



Shares of Brown-Forman Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BF#NYSE">BF</a>), the maker of Jack Daniel's, have gained nearly 5% since Trump's tweet threatening a 200% tariff on European alcohol unless Brussels reduces tariffs on U.S. whiskey.



U.S. wineries may also benefit if French and Italian wines are priced out of the market, pushing consumers toward Napa Valley or Oregon Pinot Noir.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Industry Response: Stockpiling Before The Storm?</h3>



Facing the looming tariff risk, some industry players are front-loading inventory, importing products in bulk before potential price spikes. 



&#8220;Tequila producers, for example, are increasing shipments to the U.S. ahead of tariffs,&#8221; Lodewijks confirmed.



Yet, the U.S. alcohol market is already overstocked, limiting how much additional inventory can be absorbed. 



&#8220;Distributors are sitting on historic levels of stock. There's only so much they can take before logistics and financing become a problem,&#8221; Lodewijks said.



Beyond the immediate impact on pricing and supply chains, the biggest issue remains uncertainty. 



&#8220;The biggest problem with this trade war is the lack of clarity. It's changing every day,&#8221; Lodewijks said. This unpredictability makes it difficult for businesses to plan, creating a &#8220;paralysis&#8221; in decision-making.



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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44376760/the-mag-7-slowdown-a-more-durable-transition-or-just-another-blip">EXCLUSIVE: The Mag 7 Slowdown &#8211; A &#8216;More Durable Transition&#8217; Or Just Another Blip?</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Eurozone

Exclusives

LVMHF

REMYY

EXCLUSIVE: Trump's 200% Tariff Threat Could Price European Alcohol Out Of US Markets

The Oracle of Omaha is shaking things up this year with a rule change to his <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/march-madness">March Madness bracket challenge</a>.



What Happened: In past years, billionaire Warren Buffett offered <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/entertainment/22/03/26224759/warren-buffett-owns-what-10-berkshire-acquisitions-you-may-have-forgotten">thousands of employees </a>who work at various companies owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>)(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BRK#NYSE">BRK</a>) the chance to win $1 billion — if they get <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports/24/03/37792771/warren-buffett-once-offered-1b-for-a-perfect-march-madness-bracket-now-pepsi-is-offering-100k-for-">a perfect bracket.</a>



For the 2025 March Madness challenge — which starts with a round of 64 games on Thursday, March 20 — Buffett is now offering a $1 million prize for the person who picks 30 of the 32 first-round games correctly.



"I'm getting older,&#8221; Buffett <a href="https://www.wsj.com/sports/march-madness-tournament-bracket-warren-buffett-05f94416">told </a>The Wall Street Journal. &#8220;I want to give away a million dollars to somebody while I'm still around as chairman.&#8221;



In 2024, around 65,000 of Berkshire's 400,000 employees participated in the challenge. With the odds increasingly better to win $1 million, it will be interesting to see if more people participate.



If no one claims the $1 million prize for at least 30 of the first 32 games picked correctly, a $250,000 prize is offered to the person who selects the most games right out of the 63 total matchups during the NCAA Men's National Basketball Tournament.



While Buffett often bets on making money, this time he's rooting to give away $1 million.



"Just think of the excitement it would create all over the place if somebody gets a million instead." I hope it's this year. We made it easier this year than ever."



Past Berkshire Hathaway employees have gotten at least 30 of the first 32 games correct, including Dwayne Johnson (not the actor/wrestler, but rather a steelworker at Precision Castparts). Johnson picked 31 of the first 32 games correctly and won $100,000 in 2017. If the rules from this year had been in play then, he would have won $1 million.



While the initial challenge to win $1 million got easier, Buffett also has a near-impossible challenge still in play. If anyone in the Berkshire Hathaway challenge correctly guesses the winners of the first 48 games correctly they win $1 million a year for life.



Read Also:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports/25/03/44359867/robinhood-launches-march-madness-event-contracts-with-kalshi-change-the-world-of-finance-and-trading"> Robinhood Launches March Madness Event Contracts With Kalshi: &#8216;Change The World Of Finance And Trading&#8217;</a>



Why It's Important: As Benzinga has previously reported, the odds of selecting a perfect bracket are 1 in 9.2 quintillion if using a coinflip or basic 50/50 odds. The odds improve if using seeds, trends and basketball knowledge to around 1 in 128 billion.



Noone has ever had a perfect bracket in history based on public record.



The odds of winning Buffett's challenges depend on how many upsets there are in the early rounds. In 2019, one in every 3,080 brackets correctly predicted 30 of the first 32 games with minimal upsets. In 2021, one in every 1,578,469 brackets had 30 of the first 32 games correctly predicted based on numerous upsets.



The NCAA has only one bracket on record since 2016 that has correctly picked the first 48 games.



While Buffett is making it easier to win $1 million and a big prize, other companies will likely offer big prizes for perfect brackets, knowing the odds are near impossible.



This year, social media platform X, is <a href="https://x.com/XBusiness/status/1900293498177552601">offering </a>an out-of-this-world prize for anyone that can correctly predict a perfect bracket. Partnering with Uber Eats and SpaceX, X is giving away a trip to Mars on SpaceX's Starship in the future.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/sports-betting/24/04/38170865/uconn-wins-back-to-back-ncaa-basketball-title-heres-how-much-you-could-have-made-following">UConn Wins Back-To-Back NCAA Basketball Title: Here&#8217;s How Much You Could Have Made Following Biden, Obama In March Madness Bracket</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

Sports

Warren Buffett 2025 March Madness Challenge Winner No Longer Has To Be Perfect: 'I Want To Give Away A Million Dollars'

Apple Inc.&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) latest shipment data from China paints a concerning picture: foreign-branded phone shipments — a strong indicator of iPhone sales — dropped 21% <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech">year-over-year in January</a>.



That&#8217;s a sharp reversal from December's slight growth. 



While the decline adds to ongoing concerns over Apple's market position in China, a closer look at the numbers suggests the worst may be behind the company.



In a note shared Monday, Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng highlighted the latest data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology. Overall mobile phone shipments in China fell 14% year-over-year to 27.2 million units in January, the biggest decline since September's 24% drop.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44372544/us-stocks-swing-as-futures-turn-flat-ahead-of-fomc-meeting-analysts-say-only-certainty-is-that-things-will-remain-uncertain-for-the-time-being">US Futures Show Caution Among Investors Ahead Of FOMC Meeting</a>



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Is Apple Still Losing Ground in China?</h3>



The numbers reflect a clear trend: Apple's sales in China have been under pressure for months. From September to November 2024, foreign-branded phone shipments in the country collapsed by more than 40% annually each month, indicating that Apple was losing share to domestic competitors such as Huawei Technologies Co. and Xiaomi Corp. (OTCPK: XIACY)



Yet, the January figures offer a silver lining. While still negative on a yearly basis, the 21% year-over-year decline represents an improvement over the 40%-47% plunges seen in previous months.



Goldman Sachs notes that December and January results &#8220;may have benefited from inventory build&#8221; ahead of the implementation of national consumer smartphone subsidies on Jan. 20.



Additionally, foreign-branded shipments rose 17% month-over-month from December, suggesting some stabilization—though still below the typical seasonal jump of 51% seen in past years.



Foreign-branded phones held a 16% market share, up from 11% in December 2024, though still below the historical 17% in January 2024 and 48% in January 2023.



<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Goldman Sachs Holds &#8216;Buy&#8217; Rating, Keeps $294 Price Target On AAPL</h3>



Despite the weak shipment data, Goldman Sachs reaffirmed its &#8220;Buy&#8221; rating on AAPL with a 12-month price target of $294, implying a 37.7% upside from its latest closing price of $213.49. The valuation is based on 33x projected earnings for the next 12 months plus one year.



Apple shares were down 0.1% in premarket trading on Tuesday, reflecting cautious sentiment around the data.



The Cupertino-based tech giant is down 14.5% year-to-date, on track for the worst quarter since early 2022.



Read Now: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44367075/chinese-stocks-poised-for-best-quarter-vs-sp-500-since-2007-as-investors-bet-on-policy-turnaround"> Chinese Stocks Poised For Best Quarter Vs. S&amp;P 500 Since 2007 As Investors Bet On Policy Turnaround</a></li>
</ul>



Image: Shutterstock

XIACY

Goldman Sachs Warns Apple Investors Against Reading Too Much Into Worrying iPhone Data

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/magnificent-seven">The Magnificent Seven</a> have had an iron grip on the market, but cracks are starting to show. Their earnings advantage over the broader market is narrowing, raising questions about whether tech's dominance is finally losing steam. 



In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Violeta Todorova, senior research analyst at Leverage Shares, said she believes this could be the start of a more significant shift.



"We started seeing emerging signs of a more durable transition, as the earnings gap between the Magnificent Seven and the rest of the market is narrowing," she said.



Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/03/44304426/from-magnificent-7-to-maleficent-7-goldman-sachs-slashes-year-end-sp-500-target">From &#8216;Magnificent 7&#8217; To &#8216;Maleficent 7,&#8217; Goldman Sachs Slashes Year-End S&amp;P 500 Target</a>



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Are Investors Rotating Away From Tech?</h2>



The NASDAQ-100 tracking Invesco QQQ ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>) is down 5.38% YTD while the broad technology sector tracking Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLK#NYSE">XLK</a>) is down 7.13% YTD. 



With Big Tech stocks no longer delivering eye-popping outperformances, investors are looking for fresh opportunities. Capital is flowing into financials, industrials and even energy—sectors that have played second fiddle to tech for years. The Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLF#NYSE">XLF</a>) is up 1.18% YTD, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLI#NYSE">XLI</a>) is up 1.25% YTD and the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XLE#NYSE">XLE</a>) is up 5.23% YTD.



While Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) remain AI darlings, the rest of the pack is facing valuation fatigue.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The AI Boom Can't Save Every Tech Stock</h2>



The artificial intelligence revolution has powered tech stocks to new highs, but Todorova warns that AI alone is not enough to sustain growth across the board.



While companies like Microsoft, Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) and Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>) are leveraging their strong balance sheets to turn AI from hype into real-world application, concerns are mounting over the long-term returns on these massive investments. 



With AI adoption accelerating but stock market leadership shifting, the Magnificent Seven's dominance is being tested as earnings growth slows and broader economic uncertainties loom.



<h2 class="wp-block-heading">A Temporary Pause Or A Real Shift?</h2>



The key question is whether this is just a momentary cooldown or the start of a multi-year rotation. Tech has led for so long that many investors struggle to imagine a different market landscape. 



But as earnings dispersion levels out and capital shifts elsewhere, the Magnificent Seven may no longer be a guaranteed one-way bet.



Read Next: 



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44371661/ai-bubble-bursting-magnificent-7s-profit-margins-face-pressure-as-capital-spending-can-tumble-in-2025">AI Bubble Bursting? Magnificent 7&#8217;s Profit Margins Face Pressure As &#8216;Capital Spending Can Tumble&#8217; In 2025</a></li>
</ul>



Photo: Shutterstock

Interview

EXCLUSIVE: The Mag 7 Slowdown - A 'More Durable Transition' Or Just Another Blip?

On Tuesday, Google parent Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) inked an agreement to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/03/n44375130/google-announces-agreement-to-acquire-wiz" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">acquire</a> cloud security firm Wiz for $32 billion in an all-cash deal. Upon closing, Wiz will join Google Cloud.



The acquisition marks Alphabet's largest deal to date, surpassing its $12.5 billion <a target="_blank" href="https://blog.google/inside-google/company-announcements/weve-acquired-motorola-mobility/" rel="noreferrer noopener">purchase</a> of Motorola Mobility in 2012.



Founded in 2020 by former Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) executives, Wiz provides rapidly growing cloud security solutions and partners with major cloud providers, including Amazon, Microsoft, and Google.



Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44372020/google-pixel-9a-fully-leaks-in-hands-on-videos-before-launchflat-design-48mp-camera-and-5100mah-battery-revealed" rel="noreferrer noopener">Google Pixel 9a Leaks In Hands-On Videos Before Launch: Flat Design, 48MP Camera, 5,100mAh Battery Revealed</a>



Headquartered in New York, Wiz was valued at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/03/44369083/google-in-advanced-talks-to-buy-cybersecurity-startup-wiz-for-30-billion-largest-deal-ever-amid-antitrust-uncertainty-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">$16 billion in late 2023</a> and backed by Sequoia and Andreessen Horowitz. Alphabet <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/24/07/39764952/google-parent-alphabet-reportedly-eyes-23b-acquisition-of-cybersecurity-firm-wiz-to-take-on-microsof" rel="noreferrer noopener">attempted to acquire</a> the company for $23 billion earlier, but talks <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/07/39907654/alphabet-wiz-deal-now-off-the-table-but-tech-bull-sees-consolidation-in-cybersecuri" rel="noreferrer noopener">fell through</a> over regulatory and structural issues.



To enhance Google Cloud, Alphabet also acquired Mandiant in March 2022 for $5.40 billion to integrate with the Google Cloud platform. It also acquired Looker in June 2019 for $2.60 billion and Apigee in 2016 for $625 million.



Google Cloud's acquisition of Wiz advances its strategy in two rapidly growing areas: cloud security and multicloud adoption in the AI era. As AI-driven cloud usage evolves, the need for scalable, advanced cybersecurity has become critical for businesses and national security.



Wiz offers a user-friendly platform compatible with major cloud providers, serving organizations of all sizes with growing security needs. With Google Cloud's AI and security expertise, it will become more automated, scalable, and cost-effective.



Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google, commented, "From its earliest days, Google's strong security focus has made us a leader in keeping people safe online. Today, businesses and governments that run in the cloud are looking for even stronger security solutions, and greater choice in cloud computing providers. Together, Google Cloud and Wiz will turbocharge improved cloud security and the ability to use multiple clouds."



At the end of the fourth quarter, Alphabet had $95.66 billion in <a target="_blank" href="https://abc.xyz/assets/a3/91/6d1950c148fa84c7d699abe05284/2024q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">cash on its balance sheet</a>.



Price Action: GOOGL shares are trading higher by 0.03% at $164.34 premarket at the last check Tuesday.



Photo by Laylistique via Shutterstock

Google Parent Alphabet To Acquire Wiz In $32 Billion Deal, Its Biggest Bet Yet

U.S. President Donald Trump is turning to coal as a solution to meet the nation's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42865106/trump-vows-to-power-ai-boom-with-expanded-oil-drilling-need-double-the-electricity-at-least-that-we-have-right-now" rel="noreferrer noopener">growing energy demands</a>.



In a statement on Truth Social, Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114180199351008084" rel="noreferrer noopener">declared</a>: "I am authorizing my Administration to immediately begin producing Energy with BEAUTIFUL, CLEAN COAL," touting the effect on energy prices and leveling the playing field with foreign countries, particularly China.



According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal currently accounts for about&nbsp; <a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/coal/" rel="noreferrer noopener">15% of U.S. power generation</a>, a significant decline from over 50% in 2000.



Despite this drop, Trump's administration is pushing to keep coal plants operational, arguing that they are essential for stabilizing energy costs and meeting the surging demand from power-intensive industries, particularly artificial intelligence (AI).



AI technologies are notoriously energy-hungry, with electricity demand for data centers projected to grow by 10-20% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/04/38497224/ai-data-centers-drive-electricity-demand-goldman-sachs-picks-16-stocks-to-play-the-" rel="noreferrer noopener">annually through 2030</a>. This surge, coupled with increased manufacturing and electric vehicle adoption, is straining the aging U.S. power grid, which will require a big overhaul as electricity demand rises.



An energy consulting firm, Grid Strategies, <a target="_blank" href="https://gridstrategiesllc.com/wp-content/uploads/National-Load-Growth-Report-2024.pdf" rel="noreferrer noopener">estimated</a> that demand will increase by 128 GW over the next five years, five times more than projected just two years ago.



Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed the administration is working on a "market-based" strategy to prevent the continued shutdown of coal-fired power plants. Twelve such plants were scheduled for shutdown in the next five years.



While coal once dominated the energy mix, utilities have increasingly turned to cheaper natural gas and renewables. However, coal plants provide continuous baseload power, unlike renewables like solar and wind, which require battery storage to maintain steady output.



Thus, it is unsurprising that, despite environmentalists' efforts, global coal production reached an all-time high in 2024, at almost 10 billion metric tons, according to the International Energy Agency.



The U.S. coal production has declined, although its exports have risen, with over 100 million tons shipped in 2024, mainly to India, China, and Brazil. Yet, infrastructure challenges, including limited port access on the West Coast, have hindered further expansion.



Trump's turn to coal is not entirely unexpected. Earlier this year, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he signaled the possibility of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/01/43170854/trump-outlines-economic-reset-at-davos-5-things-you-need-to-know" rel="noreferrer noopener">ramping up fossil fuels</a> to counter China's economic strategies.



Price Watch: Range Global Coal ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COAL#NYSE">COAL</a>) is down 13.88% year-to-date.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44358895/glencore-looks-for-canadian-operational-efficiency-as-zinc-competition-stiffens" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Glencore Looks For Canadian Operational Efficiency As Zinc Competition Stiffen</a></li>
</ul>



Photo via Shutterstock

Regulations

Markets

CCSO

COAL

FEDM

FEIG

FEUS

HEAT

Trump Turns To 'Beautiful, Clean Coal' To Address Domestic Energy Demand

U.S. stock futures were flat on Tuesday after a bounce back on Monday. Futures of all four benchmark indices were mixed in premarket trading.



On Monday, stocks continued their recovery from last week&#8217;s sell-off, which had pushed the S&amp;P 500 into correction territory amid growing concerns over the U.S. economy&#8217;s ability to withstand President Donald Trump&#8216;s trade war.



The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will begin today as they discuss and announce their decision on interest rates slated to be released tomorrow. Chairman Jerome Powell will address a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.



The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.31%, while the two-year yield was at 4.04%. According <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">to</a> the CME Group's FedWatch tool, there is a 99% chance that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Futures</td><td>Change (+/-)</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq 100</td><td>-0.21%</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>-0.06%</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.02%</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>-0.22%</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, dropped slightly in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.15% to $566.37, and the QQQ also declined 0.25% to $481.54, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.



Cues From The Last Session



Real estate, energy, and consumer staples stocks led Monday&#8217;s market rally, with significant gains across the S&amp;P 500. Conversely, consumer discretionary stocks dipped.



This sector-driven strength propelled the Dow Jones higher extending the market&#8217;s recovery after last week&#8217;s sharp declines, which saw the Dow lose 3.1% and the S&amp;P 500 drop over 2%.



In company news, Guess? Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GES#NYSE">GES</a>) shares surged 30% on acquisition interest, and Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>) shares climbed 9% following the launch of new AI models.



Economic data presented a mixed picture, with retail sales growth below expectations, a sharp drop in the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, and a decline in housing market confidence.



<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"><table style="overflow:auto; height: 90px; display: block;"><tbody><tr><td>Index</td><td>Performance (+/-)</td><td>Value</td></tr><tr><td>Nasdaq Composite</td><td>0.31%</td><td>17,808.66</td></tr><tr><td>S&amp;P 500</td><td>0.64%</td><td>5,675.12</td></tr><tr><td>Dow Jones</td><td>0.85%</td><td>41,841.63</td></tr><tr><td>Russell 2000</td><td>1.19%</td><td>2,068.33</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>



Insights From Analysts



The market sentiment seemed to be recovering on Monday after the S&amp;P 500 index recorded an upmove in 90% of its issues for two consecutive days. Ryan Detrick of Carson Research highlighted that this was a rare occurrence when 90% of S&amp;P 500 constituents rose back-to-back for two days.



According to the historical data shared by him, this has only happened 12 times since 1972 and the index has been higher in all instances after a year.



<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"><div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Back-to-back 90% advancing issues for the S&amp;P 500. Using <a href="https://twitter.com/NDR_Research?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NDR_Research</a> data back to 1972 shows higher six and 12 months later every single time, with much better than average returns. I&#39;m sure this will make everyone mad, but it made me &#x1f603; <a href="https://t.co/QWf8lJx2eQ">pic.twitter.com/QWf8lJx2eQ</a>&mdash; Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) <a href="https://twitter.com/RyanDetrick/status/1901824344839336317?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 18, 2025</a></blockquote><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
</div></figure>



Meanwhile, Liz Ann Sonders and Kevin Gordon of Charles Schwab said in a note "The only thing we can be certain of is that things will remain uncertain for the time being."



They quoted the data from a few years ago when confidence metrics went through a soft patch giving a &#8220;false&#8221; recessionary signal amid strong underlying growth and the hard data. They termed it as a &#8220;vibecession.&#8221;



Whereas they termed the current period as &#8220;vibespansion," which was evident a few months ago, however, many strong sentiment metrics are receding. "If the soft data stay soft long enough, we see more risk of the hard data catching down," the note added.



Edward Yardeni or Yardeni Research highlighted that the markets could have bottomed out on Thursday last week and rose on Friday and Monday because there was no comment from Trump on tariffs.



He said, "From a sentiment perspective, it is possible that Thursday's selloff followed by Friday's rally marked a bottom in the correction. We will be more inclined to call a bottom when we see the stock market move higher on a day or days when Trump blusters about tariffs again, which he did not do on Friday."



"Any day without a Trump tariff comment is a good day for the market. We know that on April 2 there will be lots of reciprocal tariffs imposed on many more nations by the administration, undoubtedly eliciting lots of comments from Tariff Man," he added.



See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-trade-futures">How to Trade Futures </a>



Upcoming Economic Data



Here&#8217;s what investors will keep an eye on Tuesday:



<ul>
<li>February&#8217;s housing starts, building permits, and import price index data will be announced at 8:30 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Also, February&#8217;s industrial production and capacity utilization data will be released at 9:15 a.m., ET.</li>
</ul>



Stocks In Focus:



<ul>
<li>IHS Holding Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IHS#NYSE">IHS</a>) was up 0.77% in premarket on Tuesday ahead of its earnings before the opening bell. Analysts expect earnings of 4 cents per share on revenue of $424.00 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>HealthEquity Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HQY#NASDAQ">HQY</a>) advanced 0.28% as Wall Street expects it to report earnings of 72 cents per share on revenue of $306.05 million after the closing bell.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>StoneCo Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STN#NASDAQ">STN</a>) rose 0.49% ahead of its earnings after the closing bell. Analysts expect earnings of 35 cents per share on revenue of $647.56 million.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Getty Images Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GETY#NYSE">GETY</a>) jumped 2.33% after posting an upbeat earnings result for its fourth quarter on Monday.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Sangamo Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SGMO#NASDAQ">SGMO</a>) dropped 6.83% after reporting worse-than-expected fourth-quarter financial results.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Baidu Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BIDU#NASDAQ">BIDU</a>) was 4.39% higher continuing the momentum from yesterday following the launch of new AI models.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Bon Natural Life Ltd. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BON#NASDAQ">BON</a>) surged 29.71% after it secured $12 million in gross proceeds from a best efforts unit offering.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Harrow Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HROW#NASDAQ">HROW</a>) zoomed 24.14% after it projected 2025 revenue of over $280 million, driven by branded products.</li>
</ul>



<ul>
<li>Bakkt Holdings Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BKKT#NYSE">BKKT</a>) plunged 30.24% after it rescheduled its fourth-quarter earnings call to March 18, 2025.</li>
</ul>



Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:



Crude oil futures were trading higher in the early New York session by 1.35% to hover around $68.28 per barrel.



The gold spot index was up by 0.70% to $3,022.11 per ounce. Its last record high was at $3,028.49 per ounce. The Dollar Index was down by 0.05% at the 103.322 level.



Asian markets closed higher on Tuesday with China&#8217;s CSI 300, Japan's Nikkei 225, South Korea's Kospi, Australia's ASX 200, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and India's S&amp;P BSE Sensex advancing in trade. European markets were also higher in trade.



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/03/44371661/ai-bubble-bursting-magnificent-7s-profit-margins-face-pressure-as-capital-spending-can-tumble-in">AI Bubble Bursting? Magnificent 7&#8217;s Profit Margins Face Pressure As &#8216;Capital Spending Can Tumble&#8217; In 2025</a></li>
</ul>



Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Market Summary

Futures

Pre-Market Outlook

BIDU

BKKT

GETY

HROW

SGMO

US Futures Show Caution Among Investors Ahead Of FOMC Meeting: Analysts Say Only Certainty Is That 'Things Will Remain Uncertain For The Time Being'

Bernstein Research on Tuesday put its price target on Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COIN#NASDAQ">COIN</a>) at $310, a potential 69% upside from its current price of $188.96.



The research firm highlighted <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44194807/coinbase-analyst-sees-crypto-spring-ahead-calls-recent-pullback-a-buying-opportunity">Coinbase's dominance in the U.S. crypto market</a> and projected robust earnings growth driven by regulatory clarity and expansion of crypto trading volumes back to American shores.



What Happened: "Coinbase is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the reshoring of global crypto markets to the United States," Bernstein analysts wrote in their report.



They added that Coinbase's entrenched leadership, with over 66% U.S. market share, places it as the premier platform to benefit from an increasingly <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44363340/crypto-leaders-step-up-pressure-on-sec-as-trumps-policies-reshape-regulatory-landscape">crypto-friendly regulatory environment</a>.



Bernstein expects Coinbase's earnings per share (EPS) to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 38% through 2026, substantially ahead of Wall Street consensus estimates. 



"We are about 30% above consensus on 2025 EPS estimates and approximately 61% ahead for 2026," the analysts noted.



The firm also pointed to the Trump administration's pro-crypto stance, including plans to make the U.S. the global hub for digital assets. 



Policies such as a stablecoin bill and digital asset market structure legislation are expected to bolster Coinbase's business. 



Bernstein emphasized that these regulatory changes should drive a return of offshore crypto volumes to U.S. markets, lifting Coinbase's revenues and offsetting competitive pressures from fintech and brokerage entrants.



Beyond trading, Bernstein praised Coinbase's growing non-trading revenue streams such as staking, stablecoin issuance and institutional custody services, which provide a buffer against the cyclicality of crypto trading volumes.



The report forecasts non-trading revenues to grow at a 31% CAGR between 2024 and 2026.



Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44369321/crypto-leaders-step-up-pressure-on-sec-as-trumps-policies-reshape-regulatory-landscape">Crypto Leaders Step Up Pressure On SEC As Trump&#8217;s Policies Reshape Regulatory Landscape</a>



Why It Matters: Despite looming competition from firms like Robinhood and traditional brokerages, Bernstein maintains that Coinbase's "compliance-first approach and impeccable safety track record" offer a durable advantage.



"We believe COIN trades cheap at current levels relative to its EPS growth," Bernstein wrote, noting Coinbase's price-to-earnings growth (PEG) ratio is materially lower than peers.



The firm's valuation assumes a 21x price-to-earnings multiple based on 2026 earnings, which it says is in line with fintech and broker-dealer peers.



Coinbase stock has declined roughly 24% over the past year but has rallied in tandem with improving sentiment around digital assets amid institutional adoption and regulatory tailwinds.



"The regulatory dark cloud that hovered over Coinbase has lifted," Bernstein wrote, "and this provides a fresh runway for COIN's next leg of growth."



Read Next:



<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/cryptocurrency/25/03/44368336/will-bitcoin-go-up-if-donald-trump-eliminates-income-tax-for-americans-making-less-than-15">Will Bitcoin Go Up If Donald Trump Eliminates Income Tax For Americans Making Less Than $150,000?</a></li>
</ul>



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Bernstein Targets $310 For Coinbase Stock, Cites Lifting 'Regulatory Dark Cloud'

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