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The Fund invests in financial instruments that ProShare Advisors believes, in combination, should produce daily returns consistent with the Daily Target. The Index is constructed and maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC. The Index is designed to measure the stock performance of U.S. companies in the semiconductors subsector. Component companies include, among others, those engaged in the production and distribution of semiconductors and other integrated chips, as well as other related products such as semiconductor capital equipment and motherboards. The Index is published under the Bloomberg ticker symbol DJUSSC.

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Boom dei chip per l&#39;intelligenza artificiale: quali azioni comprare ora?

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The United States is bracing for a potential acceleration in inflation, with a significant depreciation of the dollar now identified as a key contributing factor, according to a new analysis by Torsten Sløk, the chief economist at Apollo.
What Happened: As per Sløk&#8217;s <a href="https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-10-depreciation-in-the-dollar-will-boost-inflation-by-0-3-percentage-points/">analysis</a>, a 10% depreciation in the U.S. dollar is projected to boost inflation by 0.3 percentage points.
This comes at a time when inflationary pressures are already building from multiple fronts, including ongoing tariffs, rising oil prices, and existing immigration restrictions.
Sløk emphasizes that &#8220;The bottom line is that we should see inflation move higher over the coming months; that is what the consensus expects, what the Fed expects, and what we expect.&#8221;
As the U.S. Dollar Index Spot has already declined by 10.29% on a year-to-date basis, a chart tracking the &#8220;Shock to Inflation, compared with consensus forecast&#8221; illustrates the projected impact.
A 10% depreciation occurring in the first half of a year (H1) shows a noticeable upward bump to inflation, as does a 10% depreciation in the second half (H2).
The chart also details the impact on U.S. CPI from both a 10% and a 20% depreciation in the dollar, relative to baseline forecasts, stretching from the first quarter of 2025 through the fourth quarter of 2027.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><a href="https://www.apolloacademy.com/the-10-depreciation-in-the-dollar-will-boost-inflation-by-0-3-percentage-points/"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="563" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07082234/Apollo-chart-1024x563.png" alt="" class="wp-image-974689" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07082234/Apollo-chart-1024x563.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07082234/Apollo-chart-300x165.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07082234/Apollo-chart-768x422.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07082234/Apollo-chart.png 1435w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /></a><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: Apollo Academy</figcaption></figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46269226/stocks-just-hit-rare-golden-cross-for-1st-time-since-2023-heres-what-it-means-for-investors">Stocks Just Hit Rare Golden Cross For 1st Time Since 2023 — Here&#8217;s What It Means For Investors</a>
Why It Matters: During a discussion with Blomberg Television, Sløk was asked about the business environment being stronger than consensus expectations in terms of hiring, without the inflationary impulse.
He said, &#8220;That brings us back to a discussion around what are the effects of the trade war? Are tariffs not going to have an impact? So far, it&#8217;s remarkable, where you have inflation still steady, and now the job growth still strong. So in that sense, there is literally very little sign of the trade war having a macroeconomic impact at this point.&#8221;
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo, reacts to the June US jobs report, which saw the unemployment rate move down to 4.1% with job growth that exceeded expectations for a fourth straight month <a href="https://t.co/ucnIBVQGMM">https://t.co/ucnIBVQGMM</a> <a href="https://t.co/VOhBqK7ZQY">pic.twitter.com/VOhBqK7ZQY</a>
&mdash; Bloomberg TV (@BloombergTV) <a href="https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1940780912268001439?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 3, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
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The U.S. Dollar Index Spot was up 0.19% at the 97.3660 level during the publication of this article.
While, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, were lower in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 0.13% at $624.54, while the QQQ declined 0.25% to $554.81, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46271577/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-slashes-solar-incentives-cathie-woods-ark-says-nuclear-may-now-be-cheapest-option-oklo-smr-ltbr-and-other-stocks-in-focus">Trump&#8217;s Big Beautiful Bill Slashes Solar Incentives — Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Says Nuclear May Now Be Cheapest Option: OKLO, SMR, LTBR And Other Stocks In Focus </a></li>
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Image via Shutterstock

As US Dollar Sinks, Top Economist Warns 10% Slide Could Spark New Inflation Spike

President Donald Trump's relentless criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is a calculated move to weaken the U.S. dollar, according to Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research.
What Happened: Trump's attacks on Powell aim to pressure the Fed chair into cutting interest rates or resigning, allowing Trump to appoint a loyalist who would cut interest rates faster. This comes as he wants to devalue the dollar to boost U.S. exports and curb imports.
"Pounding Powell = Pounding the Dollar," Yardeni noted in his QuickTakes newsletter, highlighting Trump's strategy to achieve a weaker currency.
Yardeni explains that Trump has long favored a weaker dollar, and his current tactics target Powell's reluctance to lower the federal funds rate swiftly.
Powell's term as Fed chair ends May 15, 2026, but he could remain a Fed governor until Jan. 31, 2028.
However, with Fed Governor Adriana D. Kugler's term expiring Jan. 31, 2026, Trump could appoint an outsider like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has openly lobbied for the role.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/46186509/scott-bessent-on-replacing-powell-as-fed-chair-i-will-do-what-the-president-wants-plays-down-shadow-chair-speculations">Bessent previously suggested</a> a "shadow Fed chair" to undermine Powell's influence, an idea Yardeni called "terrible" for creating "market noise."
Despite Trump's pressure, Powell emphasized that any rate cut at the July 29-30 Federal Open Market Committee meeting would be data-dependent. However, any new Fed chair would need to persuade the 11 other FOMC voting members to align with their policy, a challenge that could temper Trump's ambitions.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex/25/06/46175116/weaker-dollar-stocks-beneficiaries-foreign-revenue">Dollar&#8217;s Biggest Crash In Decades: These 7 Stocks Could Win Big</a>
Why It Matters: According to TradingView data, the U.S. Dollar Index Spot has fallen by 10.85% on a year-to-date basis.
With this YTD performance, the dollar has logged its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/forex/25/06/46175116/weaker-dollar-stocks-beneficiaries-foreign-revenue">worst first-half performance</a> since 1991, marking five straight months of declines, a streak not seen since 2017. 
Chatham House expert David Lubin, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-currency-may-be-called-into-question-amid-tariff-turmoil">in a note from April</a>, explained that this &#8220;policy push&#8221; from Trump‘s administration aims to weaken the dollar permanently against other currencies, hoping to reduce the trade deficit and attract manufacturers to the U.S.
However, Lubin strongly cautioned against this approach, arguing that &#8220;If the international monetary system cannot rely on the dollar's full convertibility, or its availability in a crisis, it is entering unknown territory.&#8221;
&#8220;Undermining the dollar's global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S.,&#8221; he added.
Price Action: After hitting fresh records on Friday and Monday, on Tuesday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, ended lower. The SPY was down 0.032% at $617.65, while the QQQ declined 0.84% to $546.99, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
On Wednesday, the futures of the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading higher.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/07/46188237/bill-gates-is-betting-two-thirds-of-his-foundations-portfolio-in-these-3-stocks">Bill Gates Is Betting Two-Thirds Of His Foundation&#8217;s Portfolio In These 3 Stocks</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Politics

Trump Is Slamming Jerome Powell Because He 'Wants A Weaker Dollar,' Says Ed Yardeni: 'Pounding Powell = Pounding The Dollar'

The U.S. Dollar Index Spot fell below a key support level on Friday, indicating a further downside risk for the currency amid the ongoing de-dollarization theme and dampening American exceptionalism. Here&#8217;s what the technical analysis of the index shows.
What Happened: According to the technical analysis of a chart shared by LPL Financial&#8217;s Chief Technical Strategist, Adam Turnquist, the U.S. Dollar&#8217;s price fell below its key support at the 50 and 20-day simple moving averages.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="596" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16032553/image001-1-1024x596.png" alt="" class="wp-image-950271" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16032553/image001-1-1024x596.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16032553/image001-1-300x175.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16032553/image001-1-768x447.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/16032553/image001-1.png 1255w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: LPL Financial</figcaption></figure>
&#8220;The break below key support from the April lows implies the dollar's two-year consolidation range is likely over, paving the way for the downtrend off the January highs to continue lower,&#8221; said Turnquist, adding that &#8220;The technical setup for the dollar points to further downside risk.&#8221;
According to him, &#8220;The dollar is also contending with recently renewed tariff threats, an ongoing de-dollarization theme, and fading enthusiasm for American exceptionalism.&#8221;
However, adding that all is not wrong, Turnquist said that &#8220;While positioning and sentiment have arguably reached contrarian levels, bearish momentum has not hit extremes. In terms of downside risk, the next areas of support for the greenback set up at 95.61 and near 94.75.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/06/45921978/ibm-google-emerge-as-top-investors-in-quantum-computing-with-most-patents-issued-in-2025-only-two-co">IBM, Google Emerge As Top Investors In Quantum Computing With Most Patents Issued In 2025: &#8216;Only Two Companies Seriously Investing,&#8217; Says Martin Shkreli</a>
Why It Matters: The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low since April 2022 last week after a cooler-than-expected consumer and wholesale inflation data.
David Lubin, a Chatham House expert, noted in April that some in the Donald Trump administration see the dollar's reserve currency status as &#8220;more of a burden to the U.S. economy than a blessing.&#8221;
He described this &#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-currency-may-be-called-into-question-amid-tariff-turmoil">policy push</a>&#8221; by the Trump administration as an effort to permanently weaken the dollar against other currencies, to narrow the trade deficit, and encourage manufacturers to return to the U.S.
Lubin, however, issued a strong warning against this strategy, stating that &#8220;if the international monetary system cannot rely on the dollar's full convertibility, or its availability in a crisis, it is entering unknown territory.&#8221;
&#8220;Undermining the dollar's global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S.&#8221;
Price Action: As of Friday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, declined. The SPY was down 1.12% at $597, while the QQQ declined 1.26% to $526.96, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
The U.S. Dollar Index Spot was 0.12% lower at the 98.0630 level.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45902320/jensen-huangs-quantum-support-boosts-ionqs-growth-plans-nvidia-partnership-oxford-ionics-deal-lead-needham-to-reiterate-buy">Jensen Huang&#8217;s Quantum Support Boosts IonQ&#8217;s Growth Plans: Nvidia Partnership, Oxford Ionics Deal Lead Needham To Reiterate &#8216;Buy&#8217; </a></li>
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Markets

Is US Dollar Losing Its Edge? De-Dollarization And Fading Exceptionalism Raise Alarms

As the U.S. Dollar Index tumbles nearly 8.5% in 2025, it&#8217;s on track for the worst performance in over 30 years. This could have &#8220;profound implications&#8221; across asset classes and global markets, says analyst.
What Happened: The X post shared by Otavio Costa, the macro strategist at Crescat Capital, highlights the yearly performance of the Dollar Index over the last 30 years.
The graph depicts its 2025 performance with a red line, which shows the steepest fall in the first half of any year since 1996.
While the index hit its all-time low of 70.698 on March 17, 2008, the graph shows that its worst year-to-date decline stood at 14.68%.
&#8220;This likely marks the beginning of a long-term downward trend for the dollar, with far-reaching implications across global markets in my view,&#8221; said Costa in his post.
He also highlighted that this year&#8217;s dollar decline has led the resource stocks, emerging and other developed markets, and foreign currencies higher.
&#8220;Gold led the way, and we're now seeing the ripple effects play out across other asset classes, in my opinion,&#8221; he added.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The US dollar is on track for its worst performance in three decades, and I believe this move carries profound implications. This likely marks the beginning of a long-term downward trend for the dollar, with far-reaching implications across global markets in my view. It's no… <a href="https://t.co/L9coJvEuHM">pic.twitter.com/L9coJvEuHM</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1930016892443410792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 3, 2025</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/treasuries/25/06/45739830/us-dollar-decouples-with-10-year-treasuries-as-trade-tensions-change-long-standing-relationships-between-asset-classes">US Dollar Decouples With 10-Year Treasuries As Trade Tensions Change Long-Standing Relationships Between Asset Classes</a>
Why It Matters: Chatham House expert David Lubin, in a note from April, pointed to a "view of some within the Trump administration that the reserve currency status of the dollar is more of a burden to the U.S. economy than a blessing."
He explained that this "<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-currency-may-be-called-into-question-amid-tariff-turmoil">policy push</a>" from Donald Trump&#8216;s administration aims to weaken the dollar permanently against other currencies, hoping to reduce the trade deficit and attract manufacturers to the U.S.
However, Lubin strongly cautioned against this approach, arguing that "if the international monetary system cannot rely on the dollar&#8217;s full convertibility, or its availability in a crisis, it is entering unknown territory.
Undermining the dollar&#8217;s global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S."
Price Action: The Dollar Index was up 0.06% at the 99.28 level as of the publication of this article, which was 8.49% lower on a year-to-date basis.
The Gold Spot US Dollar Index, on the other hand, rose 0.11% to $3,356.65 per ounce, close to its previous life-high of $3,500.33.
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Tuesday. The SPY was up 0.57% at $596.09, while the QQQ advanced 0.78% to $527.30, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/06/45739065/sp-500-reverses-short-term-downtrend-after-april-lows-technical-evidence-shows-recovery-is-real-and-not-a-bull-trap-or-bear-market-rally">S&amp;P 500 Reverses Short-Term Downtrend After April Lows: Technical Evidence Shows &#8216;Recovery Is Real&#8217; And Not A &#8216;Bull Trap&#8217; Or &#8216;Bear Market Rally&#8217; </a></li>
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Forex

US Dollar On Track For Its Worst 30-Year Performance Under Trump In 2025: Analyst Warns Of 'Far-Reaching' Implications

Craig Shapiro, the macro strategist at the Bear Traps Report, made a case for holding Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) as he explained how the value of the traditional currencies was constantly being challenged by growing debt and inflation.
What Happened: According to Shapiro, higher deficits are likely to lead to future tax increases, as there is no way to escape that matrix if the countries are not willing to cut their spending.
This pressure of paying taxes, along with high inflation, reduces the value of the domestic currency of a country, explains Shapiro.
It is evident from the 8.29% year-to-date decline in the U.S. Dollar Index value as the fiscal policies introduced by President Donald Trump&#8216;s administration take shape.
Thus, Shapiro stated that &#8220;having more of your stored wealth in outside money vs inside money makes even more sense than ever before.&#8221;
&#8220;In more and more countries around the world, we are getting there faster and faster each day that goes by,&#8221; he adds by saying that &#8220;#Bitcoin is the ultimate outside money.&#8221;
While the value of Bitcoin is not derived from any other asset, except its own limited supply, it is mostly independent of monetary and fiscal policies around the world. This is the reason why it is also known as a decentralized currency.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">If you are living in a country that you know will have to raise taxes over time to survive because its deficits are simply too high and there is no will to cut spending, or in one that is continuously expropriating your wealth via higher rates of inflation, having more of your…
&mdash; Craig Shapiro (@ces921) <a href="https://twitter.com/ces921/status/1925696044198727857?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 22, 2025</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45581555/growth-vs-value-expert-views-collide-on-the-impact-of-trumps-big-beautiful-bill">Growth Vs. Value: Expert Views Collide On The Impact Of Trump&#8217;s &#8216;Big, Beautiful&#8217; Bill</a>
Why It Matters: The ongoing reciprocal tariff pause with U.S. trading partners and a 90-day truce with China have subsided the tariff concerns.
However, the new &#8220;<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45580298/trumps-big-beautiful-bill-strips-key-retirement-benefits-from-federal-workers-in-razor-thin-house-vote">One Big Beautiful Bill Act</a>&#8221; is now expected to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45536595/big-beautiful-bill-will-explode-the-deficit-and-make-the-rich-richer-congressional-budget-office-estimates-4-income-fall-for-lowest-decile-of-americans-by-2033">add $3.8 trillion</a> to the mounting U.S. debt as per Congressional Budget Office estimates, while providing tax relief. 
Shapiro, in his earlier commentary, pointed this out and said that the proposed bill will "explode the deficit while enriching the highest decile of Americans at the expense of the lowest decile."
The tax bill has been<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45558613/house-advances-trumps-sweeping-one-big-beautiful-bill-after-key-medicaid-tax-and-border-security-changes"> advanced by the House Rules Committee</a> in an 8-4 vote following a marathon 22-hour hearing. &#8211;
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.12% to $583.80, while the QQQ advanced 0.086% to $514.44, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
On Friday, the futures of the S&amp;P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones indices were mixed in premarket. 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45541408/cathie-woods-ark-invest-says-nuclear-energy-could-overtake-solar-as-cheapest-power-source-heres-a-list-of-nuclear-energy-linked-etfs-to-consider" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cathie Wood's Ark Invest Says Nuclear Energy Could Overtake Solar As Cheapest Power Source: Here's A List Of Nuclear Energy Linked ETFs To Consider</a></li>
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Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Coverage of Bitcoin, Etherum, Ripple and all the latest digital currencies.

Cryptocurrency

Economics

$BTC

Crypto Is The Future? Craig Shapiro Explains How Inflation, High Deficit Make Inside Money Less Valuable: 'Bitcoin Is The Ultimate Outside Money'

The Chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co., Jamie Dimon, addressed the issues surrounding huge deficits, inflationary factors, and geopolitical risk in the U.S. economy while talking <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-22/jpmorgan-s-dimon-sees-risk-of-stagflation-for-us-economy?srnd=homepage-asia">to</a> Bloomberg Television at the Global China Summit in Shanghai.
What Happened: While Dimon agreed with the Federal Reserve to wait and see before they decide to cut interest rates, he said that the U.S. economy was likely to fall into &#8220;stagflation&#8221; as the country faces huge risks from geopolitics, deficits, and price pressures.
"I don't agree that we're in a sweet spot," he told Bloomberg Television.
Stagflation describes an economic scenario where there is slow economic growth combined with high inflation.
Addressing the first round of trade talks with China, which resulted in the 90-day tariff truce, Dimon highlighted that "I don't think the American government wants to leave China.&#8221;
"I hope they have a second round, third round, or fourth round, and hopefully it will end up in a good place."
Furthermore, Dimon highlighted during the interview that the U.S. needed to "attack the deficit problems," while justifying how this would affect investors to reduce their positions in the U.S. dollar assets.
"I don't worry about short-term fluctuations in the dollar," Dimon said. "But I do understand people might be reducing dollar assets."
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45541408/cathie-woods-ark-invest-says-nuclear-energy-could-overtake-solar-as-cheapest-power-source-heres-a-list-of-nuclear-energy-linked-etfs-to-consider">Cathie Wood&#8217;s Ark Invest Says Nuclear Energy Could Overtake Solar As Cheapest Power Source: Here&#8217;s A List Of Nuclear Energy Linked ETFs To Consider</a>
Why It Matters: While Donald Trump&#8216;s &#8220;One Big Beautiful Bill&#8221; is likely to raise the trade deficit as per the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45536595/big-beautiful-bill-will-explode-the-deficit-and-make-the-rich-richer-congressional-budget-office-estimates-4-income-fall-for-lowest-decile-of-americans-by-2033"> Congressional Budget Office estimates</a>, the rising long-term Treasury yields stoked by Moody&#8217;s downgraded and Japanese bond yields are also signalling &#8220;debt crisis,&#8221; said Ed Yardeni. 
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index has declined 7.97% on a year-to-date basis amid the intensifying bond sell-off, which is pushing the yields higher. The 30-year Treasuries surpassed the 5% mark on Wednesday.
This rise in yields pushed the stock markets lower as major benchmark indices closed over 1% lower on Wednesday.
The CME Group's FedWatch <a href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>&#8216;s projections show markets pricing a 94.7% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping the current interest rates unchanged in its June meeting. A 71.2% probability of the same in July and a 67.5% chance of a cut in the September meeting. 
On Thursday, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket. The SPY was up 0.19% to $583.95, while the QQQ advanced 0.26% to $514.39, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/05/45559366/urban-outfitters-navigates-tariff-headwinds-with-diversification-strategies-no-country-accounts-for-more-than-25-of-production">Urban Outfitters Navigates Tariff Headwinds With Diversification Strategies: No Country &#8216;Accounts For More Than 25%&#8217; Of Production </a></li>
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Photo courtesy: lev radin / Shutterstock

Equities

Government

Macro Economic Events

Macro Notification

Market Summary

Regulations

Bonds

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Futures

Federal Reserve

ETFs

General

Jamie Dimon Says US Is Not In A 'Sweet Spot,' Flags Stagflation Risk And Deficit Problems Amid Trump-China Tensions

Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the risks of mounting U.S. government debt were far greater than the credit rating agencies were conveying.
What Happened: Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, took to X after the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/05/45479078/moodys-downgrades-us-credit-rating-over-debt-deficit-concerns">Moody&#8217;s downgrade</a> and highlighted the concerns raised about the increasing government debt by saying that &#8220;credit ratings understate credit risks,&#8221; as they only consider the probability of default and the loss given a default by the government.
However, he explains that the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/05/45499508/dalio-sees-danger-tom-lee-sees-dip-buy-whos-right-about-the-us-credit-downgrade">risks are higher than conveyed</a> because the government could try to print money to repay its debt to reduce it, which in turn causes inflation and affects the domestic currency of the country.
Dalio underscores that printing money could cause the holders of the bonds to suffer losses from the decreased value of the money, rather than the decreased quantity of money. Implying that a decreased value of money is a cause of inflation. 
&#8220;Said differently, for those who care about the value of their money, the risks for U.S. government debt are greater than the rating agencies are conveying,&#8221; he argued.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Re the U.S. debt downgrade, you should know that credit ratings understate credit risks because they only rate the risk of the government not paying its debt. They don&#39;t include the greater risk that the countries in debt will print money to pay their debts thus causing holders…
&mdash; Ray Dalio (@RayDalio) <a href="https://twitter.com/RayDalio/status/1924452875108839862?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Kathy Jones, the chief fixed income strategist at Schwab Center for Financial Research, reiterated this point by sharing the chart of the U.S. Dollar Spot Index, which has fallen 7.62% year-to-date.
While she acknowledged that Moody&#8217;s commentary had nothing new about the economy, which the economists did not already know, however, the downgrade was quite telling about the &#8220;unsustainable fiscal path.&#8221;
&#8220;But dollar continues lower. The mix of policies &#8211; tariffs, re-shoring, shrinking trade deficit, and tax cuts expanding deficit add up to weaker dollar,&#8221; she said, confirming Dalio&#8217;s point about the decreasing value of money.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Treasury yields back to unchanged. Moody&#39;s didn&#39;t tell us anything we didn&#39;t already know, but the downgrade highlights the unsustainable fiscal path. But dollar continues lower. The mix of policies &#8211; tariffs, re-shoring, shrinking trade deficit, and tax cuts expanding deficit… <a href="https://t.co/B8qslfqH4Z">pic.twitter.com/B8qslfqH4Z</a>
&mdash; Kathy Jones (@KathyJones) <a href="https://twitter.com/KathyJones/status/1924535833769464174?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 19, 2025</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45510990/federal-reserve-should-do-nothing-at-all-about-the-rising-yields-says-craig-shapiro-let-the-bond-vigilantes-eat">Federal Reserve Should Do &#8216;Nothing At All&#8217; About The Rising Yields, Says Craig Shapiro: &#8216;Let The Bond Vigilantes Eat&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: As per the Quantity Theory of Money in economics, printing money to pay off debt&nbsp;increases the money supply without a corresponding increase in the supply of goods and services.&nbsp;
This means there&#8217;s more money chasing the same amount of available items, leading to a decrease in the value of the domestic currency and causing inflation.&nbsp;
Moody&#8217;s downgraded the<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/econ-s/25/05/45479078/moodys-downgrades-us-credit-rating-over-debt-deficit-concerns"> U.S. long-term credit rating</a> from Aaa to Aa1, and forecasted the debt-to-GDP ratio to rise from nearly 100% in 2025 to approximately 130% by 2035. The agency also specifically cited the extension of Trump&#8217;s 2017 tax cuts as a key reason for its decision to&nbsp;downgrade the U.S. credit rating&nbsp;from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, 2025.
A late March statement from Moody&#8217;s highlighted that the U.S. faces significantly greater challenges in affording its debt compared to other Aaa-rated and highly-rated sovereign nations, even in a strong economic environment.
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Monday. The SPY was up 0.11% to $594.85, while the QQQ advanced 0.096% to $522.01, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
On Tuesday, the futures of the S&amp;P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq 100 indices were trading slightly lower.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45490762/charlie-munger-once-said-the-first-rule-of-compounding-is-to-never-interrupt-it-unnecessarily-now-his-wisdom-rings-true-as-the-sp-500-surges-220-over-10-years" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Charlie Munger Once Said, ‘The First Rule Of Compounding Is To Never Interrupt It Unnecessarily' — Now His Wisdom Rings True As The S&amp;P 500 Surges 220% Over 10 Years</a></li>
</ul>
Photo Courtesy: wedmoments.stock On Shutterstock.com

Treasuries

Ray Dalio Warns Against Decreasing Value Of US Dollar Amid Mounting Government Debt: 'Risks Are Greater Than The Rating Agencies Are Conveying'

The Oracle of Omaha, Warren Buffett, during the 2025 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, expressed his disappointment over the depreciating U.S. dollar and said that no one would want to hold assets in a currency that was falling in value.
What Happened: Talking about the U.S. dollar, Buffett said, &#8220;You wouldn&#8217;t want to be owning anything that we thought was in a currency that was really going to hell. And that&#8217;s the biggest thing we are worried about United States currency.&#8221;
&#8220;I mean, the tendency of our government to want to debase its currency over time, there is no system that beats that,&#8221; he added, criticizing the government&#8217;s stance on a weaker dollar.
Buffett also underscored his concerns about the fiscal policy.
&#8220;You can pick dictators, you can pick representatives, you can do anything. But there will be a push toward a weaker currency. And of course, fiscal policy is what scares me in the United States because it&#8217;s made the way it is,&#8221; said Buffett.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/05/45213790/us-dollar-depreciation-is-cushioning-the-impact-of-tariffs-on-corporate-profits-says-expert-heres-how">US Dollar Depreciation Is Cushioning &#8216;The Impact Of Tariffs On Corporate Profits,&#8217; Says Expert</a>
Why It Matters: Analysts have criticized the U.S. government&#8217;s attempt to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-curren">weaken the U.S. dollar</a> in their analyses. Commentary from Chatham House expert David Lubin pointed out a "view of some within the Trump administration that the reserve currency status of the dollar is more of a burden to the U.S. economy than a blessing." 
According to him, the government&#8217;s &#8220;policy push" aims to weaken the dollar permanently against other currencies, hoping to reduce the trade deficit and attract manufacturers to the U.S.
However, Lubin strongly cautions against this approach, arguing that "if the international monetary system cannot rely on the dollar&#8217;s full convertibility, or its availability in a crisis, it is entering unknown territory. Undermining the dollar&#8217;s global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S."
Price Action: As of the publication of this article, the U.S. Dollar Index Spot was 0.11% lower at the 99.7200 level. It has fallen by 8.02% on a year-to-date basis.
Whereas, the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell on Monday. The SPY was down 0.57% to $563.51, while the QQQ declined 0.59% to $485.93, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
In premarket on Tuesday, SPY declined 0.61% and QQQ was down 0.84%.
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</ul>
Photo courtesy: mark reinstein / Shutterstock.com

Warren Buffett Expresses Disappointment Over Dollar Depreciation: Don't Want To Own Assets In A Currency That Is 'Really Going To Hell'

With the ongoing shifts in the markets, the U.S.&#8217;s reliance on foreign capital is reversing, leading to lower asset prices. However, its unique position as the issuer of the world&#8217;s reserve currency provides a significant advantage in navigating this shift, according to an expert.
What Happened: In a recent thread on X, Bob Elliot, co-founder, CEO, and CIO of Unlimited and former investment committee member of Bridgewater Associates, argued that, unlike typical emerging market balance of payments crises, the U.S. can prioritize domestic economic conditions due to its debt being <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44895384/dollar-slips-to-a-three-year-low-below-98-mark-higher-rates-are-not-supporting-the-dollar-says-expert">denominated in U.S. dollars</a>.
A balance of payments crisis in an emerging market can often trigger aggressive rate hikes to retain foreign capital, curb consumption, and limit currency depreciation needed to service foreign-currency debt, typically crushing local assets.
However, Elliot argues that the U.S. situation differs fundamentally despite sharing the characteristic of high reliance on foreign capital. Since U.S. debt is not issued in a foreign currency but in its own, &#8220;U.S. policymakers are in the privileged position to prioritize domestic conditions through the adjustment process,&#8221; said Elliot.
While concerns exist about foreign selling pushing rates higher, as seen in an emerging market crisis, the Fed&#8217;s ability to prioritize domestic conditions in the U.S. means it can ease monetary policy even as capital withdraws.
If needed, &#8220;the Fed can always print money and buy the bonds,&#8221; particularly to offset potential deflationary pressures from a weakening economy, said Elliot.
He explains that, unlike typical BoP crises, the Fed&#8217;s focus on domestic conditions, enabled by a weaker dollar and easing interest rates, can limit equity losses from reduced demand.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">But unlike more traditional BoP crises, the US policymakers are in the privileged position to prioritize domestic conditions through the adjustment process. The result is a weaker currency but stronger bond and equity performance than in typical adjustments of the past.
&mdash; Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) <a href="https://twitter.com/BobEUnlimited/status/1914994502973944198?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 23, 2025</a></blockquote>
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See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44947085/analyst-expects-googles-ad-revenue-to-pick-up-in-q1-google-normally-beats-heres-what-alphabets-chart-shows-ahead-of-earnings">&#8216;Google Normally Beats,&#8217; Says Analyst Expecting Sundar Pichai-Led Company&#8217;s Ad Revenue To &#8216;Pick Up&#8217; In Q1: Here&#8217;s What Alphabet&#8217;s Chart Shows Ahead Of Earnings</a>
Why It Matters: According to Elliot, the selloff in U.S. assets is a consequence of the government&#8217;s efforts to reduce consumption through tariff policies and a subsequent narrowing of the current account deficit.
The decades-long buildup in foreign capital inflows since the 1990s, Elliot highlighted, was initially driven by reserve purchases and later by increased equity investments following the Global Financial Crisis. Also, foreign private investors funded substantial federal government deficits in recent years.
&#8220;Never would a country be allowed to run such a classic &#8216;twin deficit&#8217; problem for so long,&#8221; Elliot stated, emphasizing the unprecedented nature of this forty-year dynamic, made possible by the dollar&#8217;s reserve currency status.
Thus, he argues that the dollar&#8217;s reserve status can help policymakers make &#8220;adjustments&#8221; without creating a typical balance of payments crisis.
Price Action: As of the publication of this article, the Dollar Index Spot was trading 0.16% lower at the 99.6890 level, and the futures of the Dow Jones, S&amp;P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were down 0.49%,0.31%, and 0.39%, respectively.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose on Wednesday. The SPY was up 1.55% to $535.42, while the QQQ advanced 2.27% to $454.561, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
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</ul>
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image Via Shutterstock

Dollar-Denominated Debt Gives US Policymakers Edge In Navigating Economic Shocks, Says Expert: '...Are In The Privileged Position'

The U.S. Dollar Index Spot slipped below 98 points for the first time in over three years on Monday, while the 10-year Treasury yields were steady around 4.35%. Experts describe this divergence as the measure of stress in markets."
What Happened: The U.S. Dollar Index slipped 1.20% to 98.211 during the publication of this article. However, its day range stood between 97.921 — 99.208 on Monday, according to the TradingView data.
Historical data shows that the dollar index last slipped below the 98 point mark to 97.79 as of March 30, 2022, closing. Whereas, the 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.35%.
Jim Bianco, the president and founder of Bianco Research LLC., highlighted this divergence in an X post and called it a "measure of stress in markets."
"Higher rates are not supporting the dollar right now. This means they might have to go a lot higher to stop the dollar from falling," he added.
The relationship between higher yields and higher dollar value exists because the dollar value generally appreciates when foreign investors buy U.S. dollar-denominated instruments, especially the risk-free Treasury bonds. However, this divergence, as shared by Bianco in the given chart, raises concerns.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">1/2 The breaking of this relationship is a measure of stress in markets &#8230; it continues to widen.(Higher rates are not supporting the dollar right now. This means they might have to go a lot higher to stop the dollar from falling.) <a href="https://t.co/PRj6mYNu0J">pic.twitter.com/PRj6mYNu0J</a>
&mdash; Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) <a href="https://twitter.com/biancoresearch/status/1914160730535756287?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Meanwhile, economist Peter Schiff underscored that the dollar was 11% lower since President Donald Trump's inauguration day and 6% since the "so-called" Liberation Day, when the reciprocal tariffs against the U.S. trading partners were announced.
"Trump&#8217;s economic team assured us that foreigners would pay our tariffs, in part because their currencies would fall against the dollar. Instead, a collapsing dollar adds to our cost," he said.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">The U.S. Dollar Index has a 97 handle, down 11% since Trump took office (6% since Liberation Day.) Trump&#39;s economic team assured us that foreigners would pay our tariffs, in part because their currencies would fall against the dollar. Instead a collapsing dollar adds to our cost.
&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1914249859353264212?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">April 21, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/04/44891949/xi-jinpings-china-pledges-retaliation-against-countries-isolating-beijing-by-giving-into-trump-admini">Xi Jinping&#8217;s China Pledges Retaliation Against Countries Isolating Beijing By Giving Into Trump Administration&#8217;s &#8216;Unilateral Bullying,&#8217; Says It Will &#8216;Never Accept It&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: Additionally, a recent study released last week, titled ‘<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/04/44858165/policy-push-vs-market-pull-dollar-under-pressure-as-reserve-curren">Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different</a>,' highlights that "Between April 4 and April 14, the U.S. dollar depreciated by 3.6%." 
"Normally, in times of global volatility… the dollar appreciates as dollar-denominated assets benefit from a flight to safety. Not this time around," the note stated.
The dollar&#8217;s surprising depreciation indicates a divergence from typical market behavior. "If U.S. Treasuries are no longer viewed as the world&#8217;s preferred safe asset, then the status of the dollar as the world&#8217;s reserve currency may be called into question," the note stated.
Meanwhile, Chatham House expert David Lubin highlighted in another note that "policy push" from Trump's administration aims to weaken the dollar permanently against other currencies,
"Undermining the dollar&#8217;s global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S.," cautioned Lubin.
Price Action: The dollar index was down 9.49% on a year-to-date basis. The WisdomTree Bloomberg US Dollar Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USDU#NYSE">USDU</a>) was 5.82% YTD, whereas, Invesco DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UUP#NYSE">UUP</a>) dropped 7.99% in 2025.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Monday. The SPY was down 1.32% to $519.46, while the QQQ declined 1.54% to $437.26, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/04/44892375/dean-of-valuation-aswath-damodaran-warns-buying-the-dip-akin-to-catching-a-falling-">Dean Of Valuation Aswath Damodaran Warns Buying The Dip Akin To Catching A Falling Knife, Says It Takes A &#8216;Stronger Stomach&#8217; Than Most Have</a></li>
</ul>
Image Via Shutterstock

Currency ETFs

Analyst Ratings

USDU

PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish Fund

Dollar Slips To A Three-Year Low Below 98-Mark: 'Higher Rates Are Not Supporting The Dollar,' Says Expert

As the U.S. dollar remains under pressure, its status as the &#8220;reserve currency&#8221; has come into question. Experts are highlighting the current administration&#8217;s intentions to reshape global economic linkages, along with a market reaction that suggests a potential erosion in its status.
What Happened: The U.S. dollar index has declined 8.21% on a year-to-date basis as of the publication of this article. This decline was accelerated by the surprising market response to the <a href="https://benzinga.com/25/04/44616760/donald-trump-sets-reciprocal-tariffs-on-key-trade-partners-in-historic-policy-shock">administration&#8217;s announced reciprocal tariffs</a> in early April 2025.
A recent study titled &#8216;Dollar Upheaval: This Time is Different,&#8217; by five experts, including Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Hanno Lustig, Robert Richmond, and Chenzi Xu, highlights that &#8220;Between April 4 and April 14, the U.S. dollar depreciated by 3.6%.&#8221;
&#8220;Normally, in times of global volatility… the dollar appreciates as dollar-denominated assets benefit from a flight to safety. Not this time around,&#8221; the note stated.
This unexpected depreciation suggests a disconnect between traditional market dynamics and the dollar&#8217;s current performance. &#8220;If U.S. Treasuries are no longer viewed as the world's preferred safe asset, then the status of the dollar as the world's reserve currency may be called into question.&#8221;
Adding a crucial layer to this analysis is commentary from Chatham House expert David Lubin, who points to a &#8220;view of some within the Trump administration that the reserve currency status of the dollar is more of a burden to the U.S. economy than a blessing.&#8221;
This &#8220;policy push&#8221; aims to weaken the dollar permanently against other currencies, hoping to reduce the trade deficit and attract manufacturers to the U.S.
However, Lubin strongly cautions against this approach, arguing that &#8220;if the international monetary system cannot rely on the dollar's full convertibility, or its availability in a crisis, it is entering unknown territory. Undermining the dollar's global status would not only transmit huge amounts of additional uncertainty to the global economy, but would be a needless act of self-harm for the U.S.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44834505/scott-bessent-affirms-china-wont-weaponize-us-treasuries-as-it-would-weaken-their-currency-affecting-exports-we-do-buybacks">Scott Bessent Says China Won&#8217;t &#8216;Weaponize&#8217; US Treasuries, Citing Risk To RMB And Exports: &#8216;We Do Buybacks&#8217;</a>
Why It Matters: Despite the administration&#8217;s potential motivations and the market&#8217;s reaction, as detailed in the &#8216;Dollar Upheaval&#8217; note suggests a market pull away from the dollar&#8217;s traditional &#8220;safe asset&#8221; status.
Their analysis of the Treasury basis further indicates that investors &#8220;(i) question the safety of the dollar, not just Treasuries, and (ii) that they perceive these changes to be long-lasting.&#8221;
Lubin notes a growing argument in the government, citing Vice President JD Vance&#8216;s &#8220;resource curse&#8221; analogy and Steve Miran&#8216;s claim that the dollar&#8217;s reserve role is causing &#8220;persistent currency distortions&#8221; leading to trade deficits.
The confluence of a deliberate policy push to weaken the dollar and a market response indicating a declining appetite for dollar-denominated assets paints a concerning picture, according to these experts.
Price Action: The U.S. Dollar Index Spot was 0.33% up at the 99.706 level as of the publication of this article. It was close to its 52-week low of 99.0140 and 9.5% lower than its 52-week high of 110.1760.
The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell on Wednesday. The SPY was down 2.22% to $525.66, while the QQQ declined 3.02% to $444.18, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones futures were up 0.78%, whereas the S&amp;P 500 index rose 0.90% and the Nasdaq 100 advanced 1.09%.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/04/44831287/trump-administration-imposes-up-to-245-tariff-on-chinese-imports-amid-intensifying-trade-battle">China Now Faces Up To 245% Tariffs On Certain Imports, Says White House: Here&#8217;s What You Should Know</a></li>
</ul>
Disclaimer:&nbsp;This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Policy Push vs. Market Pull: Dollar Under Pressure As 'Reserve Currency May Be Called Into Question' Amid Tariff Turmoil

As the U.S. dollar witnessed its largest two-day decline in over two years, an economist argues the importance of devaluation for global growth while another expert explains the weakness to as a symptom and not a cause.
What Happened: The macro strategist at Crescat Capital, Otavio Costa highlighted the dollar&#8217;s largest two-day decline in over two years in his latest X post.
While he said that the dollar was the &#8220;most overvalued&#8221; concerning other fiat currencies, he reiterated that it &#8220;needs to be devalued to restore global growth.&#8221;
However, according to Aditya Sesh, the founder and managing director at Basiz Fund&nbsp;Services, the weakness in the dollar was a &#8220;symptom and not a cause.&#8221;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Once again, almost unnoticed, we saw another substantial drop in the dollar. In fact, it was the largest two-day decline in over two years. The dollar remains one of the most overvalued in history relative to other fiat currencies, and in my view, it likely needs to be devalued… <a href="https://t.co/SJ8W2gQlsf">https://t.co/SJ8W2gQlsf</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1897457211993202752?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 6, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
Other economists like Peter Schiff said that the plans to form a Bitcoin (CRYPTO: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/btc/usd">BTC</a>) strategic reserve in the U.S. could be a reason for &#8220;dollar&#8217;s demise,&#8221; saying that &#8220;ultimate winner will be gold.&#8221;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">If Bitcoin&#39;s success is predicated on the dollar&#39;s failure, if the U.S. is foolish enough to actually create a Bitcoin strategic reserve, this development will accelerate the dollar&#39;s demise, potentially benefiting Bitcoin in the short run. But the ultimate winner will be gold.
&mdash; Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) <a href="https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/1897428815137153078?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 5, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/03/44160509/starlinks-european-rival-up-over-600-since-trump-halted-ukraine-aid-now-plans-to-replace-e">Starlink&#8217;s European Rival, Up Over 600% Since Trump Halted Ukraine Aid, Now Plans To Replace Elon Musk&#8217;s Satellite Internet Service In War-Torn Nation</a>
Why It Matters: Sesh said that &#8220;it is not surprising that the USD can come under pressure at various points in time,&#8221; while highlighting the following developments as the &#8220;symptoms&#8221;.
<ul>
<li>Correction After A Period Of Strength: According to Sesh, the dollar&#8217;s recent strong performance against other major currencies makes it susceptible to a natural market correction.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Fiscal Implications: A &#8220;review of public finance in the U.S.,&#8221; including cleaning up USAID and the spending cuts by the Department of Government Efficiency, &#8220;is a long time, arduous task&#8221;.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Economic Slowdown Signals: Sesh also highlights economic weakness hampering the USD. According to him, declining indicators like the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, particularly the drop in new orders, suggest a potential slowdown in US manufacturing.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Geopolitical And Infrastructure Burdens: Finally, the dollar&#8217;s reserve currency status, along with the need to renovate aging infrastructure, creates substantial financial obligations that can place downward pressure on the currency, according to Sesh.</li>
</ul>
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell in premarket on Thursday. SPY decline 0.87% to $577.96&nbsp;and QQQ was down 1.10% to $496.48, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
On Wednesday, the SPY declined 1.07% to $583.06, and the QQQ rose 1.30% to $502.01.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/03/44159401/rigetti-claims-leadership-in-quantum-computing-race-aims-to-scale-to-100-qubits-as-it-look">Rigetti Claims &#8216;Leadership&#8217; In Quantum Computing Race, Aims To Scale To 100 Qubits As It Looks To Catch Up With IBM, Google</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

US Dollar Weakness A 'Symptom Not Cause,' Argues Expert As Economist Hails Devaluation To 'Restore Global Growth'

Wall Street ended a two-week losing streak, with the S&amp;P 500 closing just 0.07% below its record high. The rally was fueled by <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43748007/inflation-spikes-in-january-wall-street-rallies-on-ukraine-peace-talks-delayed-tariffs-this-week-in-the-markets">investor optimism despite tariff-related announcements</a> from President Donald Trump and mixed inflation data. 
The S&amp;P 500 gained 1.5%, the Nasdaq surged 2.6%, and the Dow rose 0.5%. Sector-wise, Information Technology led the gains, while Healthcare lagged.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">Among ETFs</a>, five stood out as last week's top performers.
GraniteShares 2x Long SMCI Daily ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCL#NASDAQ">SMCL</a>) soared alongside Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>), delivering significant leveraged gains.
<ul>
<li>Weekly Gains: 63.98%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Focus: Aims to mirror daily investment results of 2 times the daily percentage change of Super Micro Computer.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Expense Ratio: 1.5%</li>
</ul>
ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BOIL#NYSE">BOIL</a>) rallied as natural gas prices rebounded from recent lows. 
<ul>
<li>Weekly Gains: 23.75%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Focus: Offers 2x daily leveraged exposure to natural gas aiming to catch big swings in price over a relatively short period. </li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Expense Ratio: 0.95%</li>
</ul>
PLUS Korea Defense Industry Index ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KDEF#NYSE">KDEF</a>) was propelled by South Korea's growing defense spending. 
<ul>
<li>Weekly Gains: 15.09%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Focus: Offers investment results that reflects the total return performance of the Korea Defense Industry Index.&nbsp;</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Expense Ratio: 0.65%</li>
</ul>
ProShares Ultra FTSE China 50 ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XPP#NYSE">XPP</a>) gained on renewed interest in Chinese equities.
<ul>
<li>Weekly Gains: 14.16%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Focus: Offers 2x daily long leverage to the&nbsp;FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index. This makes it an ideal tool for investors with a bullish short-term outlook for Chinese equities.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Expense Ratio: 0.95%</li>
</ul>
ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>) benefited from bullish sentiment in chip stocks last week.
<ul>
<li>Weekly Gains: 10.46%</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Focus: Offers 2 times daily long leverage to the Dow Jones U.S. Semiconductors Index.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Expense Ratio: 0.95% </li>
</ul>
Also Read:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/02/43656846/inflation-rises-more-than-expected-in-january-chills-interest-rate-cut-hopes"> Inflation Rises More Than Expected In January, Chills Interest Rate Cut Hopes</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">What Happened In The Market Last Week?</h2>
Among individual stocks, Super Micro Computer was the biggest gainer in the S&amp;P 500, surging 32%, followed by Intel (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/INTC#NASDAQ">INTC</a>) gaining 24%. On the downside, West Pharmaceutical Services (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WST#NYSE">WST</a>) fell 33%, leading the week's worst performers.
With investors digesting economic data and global trade developments, attention now shifts to the week ahead, where key earnings reports and macroeconomic events could set the tone for market direction.
Wall Street rebounded after two weeks of losses. Investor sentiment improved despite geopolitical and inflation concerns.
The week also saw Trump announce a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. However, the lack of immediate enforcement helped ease market fears. Inflation data also influenced sentiment, with a hotter-than-expected consumer report midweek offset by a softer producer <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/02/43701823/economists-breathe-sigh-of-relief-why-producer-inflation-isnt-as-bad-as-it-seems">inflation reading on Thursday</a>.
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/25/02/43769585/health-insurance-etfs-in-focus-as-rfk-jr-takes-over-hhs">Health Insurance ETFs in Focus as RFK Jr Takes Over HHS</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

BOIL

INTC

KDEF

SMCL

Wall Street Bounces Back: Top-Performing ETFs Of Last Week

The emergence of DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43232316/deepseek-jitters-shatter-us-tech-stocks-wipe-out-12-trillion-on-wall-street-analyst-eyes-four-chinese-giants-set-to-benefit">rattled the markets</a> on Monday. However, as AI demand continues to rise many described the reaction to be "overdramatic" and suggested to "buy the dip". Here is a list of top semiconductor exchange-traded funds, with the lowest expense ratios that investors could consider. 
What Happened: As DeepSeek boasts of high performance at a significantly lower cost, semiconductor stocks which are the backbone of AI development, bore the brunt of the selloff.
"To me, it's an overreaction," Fundstrat Global Advisors‘ head of research Tom Lee <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/tom-lee-calls-market-sell-off-overreaction-nvidia-falls-on-deepseek-news.html?taid=67980792a96d920001c44f58&amp;utm_campaign=trueanthem&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter%7Cmain">told </a>CNBC's "Closing Bell," comparing the drop to Nvidia Corp.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) March 2020 decline that proved to be a significant <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43259288/fundstrats-tom-lee-sees-nvidias-17-plunge-as-an-opportunity-calls-nasdaqs-over-600-points-plunge-drop-a-market-overreaction">entry point</a> for investors.
Similarly, Subho Moulik, the founder and CEO of Appreciate said, "The sudden emergence of DeepSeek is a Sputnik-like moment for the U.S. and potentially undermines U.S. AI exceptionalism, but we see yesterday's panic selling to be overdramatic."
As Nvidia shares <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/01/43259288/fundstrats-tom-lee-sees-nvidias-17-plunge-as-an-opportunity-calls-nasdaqs-over-600-points-plunge-drop-a-market-overreaction">plunged</a> 17% on Monday, eroding $593 billion in <a href="https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1884009665597690125">market capitalization</a>, Moulik said, "It's not just Nvidia, the other semicaps that took a battering in the markets – Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) and Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>) – can be an interesting buy on dip."
Investors could consider buying ETFs with a low expense ratio to "buy on dip." An expense ratio is a percentage that represents the annual cost of owning a fund or an ETF which is calculated by dividing a fund&#8217;s operating expenses by its net assets.
According to <a href="https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/etfs-how-much-do-they-really-cost#:~:text=Investors%20should%20consider%20the%20impact,significantly%20erode%20returns%20over%20time.">Charles Schwab</a>, &#8220;ETFs with lower expense ratios and lower trading costs typically offer better value to investors, because higher expense ratios and/or steeper trading costs may significantly erode returns over time.&#8221; 
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>ETF Name</td>
<td>AUM (In Billion)</td>
<td>Expense Ratio</td>
<td>Six Month Returns</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Semiconductor ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XSD#NYSE">XSD</a>)</td>
<td>$1.28</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
<td>-0.29%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>)</td>
<td>$23.60</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
<td>-1.17%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>)</td>
<td>$13.86</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
<td>-7.14%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>First Trust Nasdaq Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FTXL#NASDAQ">FTXL</a>)</td>
<td>$1.32</td>
<td>0.60%</td>
<td>-9.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>)</td>
<td>$1.24</td>
<td>0.95%</td>
<td>-7.38%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Source: <a href="https://www.etf.com/topics/semiconductors">ETF.com</a> </figcaption></figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43259969/microsoft-ai-revenue-poised-to-surpass-10-billion-fueling-explosive-growth-says-piper-sandler-as-it-maintains-overweight-rating-on-msft">Microsoft&#8217;s AI Revenue Set To Surpass $10 Billion: Piper Sandler Maintains Overweight Rating </a>
Why It Matters: According to Moulik, DeepSeek&#8217;s claim of lower training costs of $6 million vs ChatGPT&#8217;s $100 million plus, remains unverified. The Chinese firm's reliance on less-advanced Nvidia chips, due to U.S. chip export restrictions, could also hinder its ability to maintain a competitive edge in AI development.
Even if DeepSeek&#8217;s cost claims hold, it&#8217;s still positive for Big Tech, said Moulik, as AI extends beyond Large Language Models. Cost-effective LLM training allows U.S. companies to prioritize <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/43222744/verizon-launches-ai-connect-as-mckinsey-predicts-that-60-70-of-ai-workload-will-shift-from-training-to-inferencing-by-2030">LLM inferencing</a> – the next stage. Inferencing involves applying pre-trained LLMs for real-world tasks, optimizing AI investments by shifting focus from costly training to scalable, practical applications, ultimately driving long-term growth.
"For industry leaders like Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc., this means redirecting massive spending from training infrastructure to real-world applications such as search, customer service, and automation," added Moulik. Cloud servers like Amazon.com Inc.&#8217;s Amazon Web Service could benefit too.
Although the short-term will be bumpy, the long-term runway appears stable, added Moulik, "Unless DeepSeek drops another Chinese New Year gift to the world later&nbsp;this&nbsp;year.&#8221;
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43258090/gamestop-short-seller-wants-freedom-of-speech-for-millions-having-stock-market-conversations-questioning-sec-on-what-protects-honest-opinions">Gamestop Short Seller Wants Freedom Of Speech For &#8216;Millions&#8217; Having Stock Market Conversations, Questioning SEC On &#8216;What Protects Honest Opinions?&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Sector ETFs

FTXL

iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index Fund

SOXX

DeepSeek Buzz Batters Big Tech But This Analyst Says 'Buy The Dip:' Here's Are Top 5 Semiconductor ETFs With The Lowest Expense Ratios That You Can Consider

Exchange-traded funds, or ETFs, with leveraged exposure to chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">experienced a dramatic Monday</a> thanks to the debut of AI upstart DeepSeek. 
<ul>
<li>The GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDL#NASDAQ">NVDL</a>) plunged 34.55% as of writing. </li>
<li>Graniteshares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVD#NASDAQ">NVD</a>), its leveraged inverse counterpart designed to profit from Nvidia&#8217;s losses, soared 34.69% at last check</li>
<li>The ProShares Ultra Semiconductors ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>), which holds more than 40% of its assets in Nvidia, dropped by more than 27% </li>
<li>More broadly, the Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund, where Nvidia is the second-largest holding at nearly 15% of the portfolio, shed 4.7%.</li>
<li>The VistaShares Artificial Intelligence Supercycle ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AIS#NYSE">AIS</a>), which has only 3% of its assets in Nvidia but holds other AI stocks, lost 8.43%.</li>
</ul>
These ETFs offer the potential for amplified profits at the cost of higher-than-usual fees of around 1% and greater volatility. 
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43250480/nvidia-sinks-below-200-day-average-for-first-time-in-2-years-deepseek-technical-reset">Nvidia Sinks Below 200-Day Moving Average For First Time In 2 Years As DeepSeek Sparks Historic Technical Reset</a>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">What Triggered The Selloff?</h3>
DeepSeek is the culprit. This <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43232316/deepseek-jitters-shatter-us-tech-stocks-wipe-out-12-trillion-on-wall-street-analyst-eyes-four-chinese-giants-set-">Hangzhou, China-based AI startup</a> launched a new model that poses a challenge to U.S. competitors, including Nvidia's core business. 
DeepSeek's open-source AI model has already surpassed ChatGPT in downloads on Apple's app store, leaving the AI market in awe. Industry experts like venture capitalist Marc Andreessen called this moment a &#8220;Sputnik moment&#8221; for U.S. AI companies as this could be a ground-breaker in the AI space, reported Reuters.
The market's reaction was swift. Nvidia&#8217;s stock, a major player in the AI space, dropped nearly 17.65%, taking along semiconductor stocks like Broadcom (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>) in the ride south. 
The iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>), which tracks semiconductor stocks, also plummeted by 8.39%, experiencing its worst day since the pandemic-led selloff in March 2020.
As fear spread, investors flocked to safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries, leading to yields on the 10-year note dipping to a one-month low.
See Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/43244872/tech-stocks-tumble-on-ai-nightmare-nvidia-eyes-worst-day-since-march-2020-bitcoin">Tech Stocks Tumble On AI Nightmare, Nvidia Eyes Worst Day Since March 2020, Bitcoin Drops Below $100,000: What&#8217;s Driving Markets Monday?</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

NVDL

DeepSeek AI Model Sends Shockwaves Through Nvidia, Slams ETFs

The Bank of Japan has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking a 17-year high of 0.50%. This move signifies the end of an era of historically low interest rates for the Asian exporter. We assess how BOJ&#8217;s move can impact the U.S. dollar and the stock market.
What Happened: An increase in interest rates generally leads to higher yields, and less liquidity in the system leading to uncertainty in the stock market.
Investors have famously used Japan&#8217;s historically low interest rates for a carry trade, which involves borrowing in yen and investing in other higher-yielding assets.
However, BOJ&#8217;s rate decision could lead to &#8220;the unwinding of carry trade positions,&#8221; said Markus Ammann, the global advisor at BierbaumPro AG, in a LinkedIn post.
&#8220;Japan's evolving monetary strategy reflects its efforts to adapt to changing economic conditions while addressing decades-long deflationary pressures,&#8221; said Giordano Colombini, the co-founder of MG Bridge Consulting.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On Yields</h4>
After BOJ&#8217;s announcement, the U.S. Treasuries remained largely unchanged, with the 10-year bond yielding 4.63% and the two-year bond at 4.27%. The Japanese two-year and 10-year bonds rose to 0.72% and 1.24%, respectively.
&#8220;Traders had almost fully priced in a rate change while about three-quarters of economists predicted the move in a Bloomberg survey released last week,&#8221; the global macroeconomic expert, Anish Nanda told <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga</a>.
Japanese investors are the largest foreign holders of U.S. Treasuries, said Nanda, adding that &#8220;Rate hikes in Japan could impact U.S. investors, it would pressure U.S. Treasuries if Japanese investors were to pull money out.&#8221;
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43183617/goldman-research-shows-us-market-falls-just-5-after-tariff-imposition-but-7-after-retaliatory-tariffs-we-lose-when-we-punch-and-we-lose-when-were-punched-says-economist">Trump Tariffs A Lose-Lose Proposition? Goldman Research Indicates Markets Fall After Imposition And Retaliation — Economist Warns &#8216;We Lose When We Punch And We Lose When We&#8217;re Punched&#8217;</a>
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On Dollar</h4>
While the U.S. dollar fell by 0.40% to 107.627, as of 7:22 a.m., ET, the USD/JPY rate pulled back from the day&#8217;s high of 156.4.
According to Nanda, future rate hikes could further boost the yen and any decision to cut interest rates by the Fed would likely weaken the dollar. Simultaneously, the dollar continues to be under pressure following the Trump administration&#8217;s call for imposing tariffs.
&#8220;The yen is expected to gain further ground if the BOJ maintains its hawkish stance, though volatility is expected in the USD to JPY pair,&#8221; he added.
<h4 class="wp-block-heading">Impact On U.S. Market</h4>
While the change in Japan&#8217;s monetary policy has no direct impact on the U.S. market, a weaker dollar, higher yields and resultant change in liquidity environment can create headwinds for U.S. equities, also owing to changes in its own economic policies.
&#8220;The interplay of economic policies, inflation trends, and market reactions is shaping a volatile yet intriguing narrative for 2025,&#8221; said Jez Jacob, the AVP at Finvasia.
Read Next:
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Asia

How Bank Of Japan's Shift From Historically Low Interest Rates Impacts US Markets: Higher Yields, Less Liquidity, Market Uncertainty And More

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/ai-chips" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Artificial intelligence chip stocks</a> including Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), Marvell Technology, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), Arm Holdings (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), and Micron Technology, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), are trading higher Thursday in sympathy with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co&#8217;s (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/43022654/taiwan-semiconductor-q4-earnings-3nm-and-5nm-nodes-lead-topline-growth-expands-margins-issues-strong-q1-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">upbeat quarterly print</a>.
Taiwan Semiconductor is the key contract chipmaker behind Nvidia&#8217;s graphics processing units&nbsp;(GPU) and Apple Inc.&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) smartphones.
However, on Wednesday, the Biden administration announced its <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">latest semiconductor regulations</a>, including extended licensing requirements on companies like Taiwan Semiconductor, which manufactures chips, and packaging companies, citing national security threats.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/media/25/01/42981814/apple-and-nvidia-supplier-taiwan-semiconductor-leads-semiconductor-market-with-64-share" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Apple And Nvidia Supplier Taiwan Semiconductor Leads Semiconductor Market with 64% Share</a>
Chipmakers like Taiwan Semiconductor and&nbsp;Samsung Electronics (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SSNLF#OTC">SSNLF</a>) must <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/43003008/taiwan-semi-samsung-intel-may-face-stricter-us-rules-on-chip-exports-to-china-over-security-concerns" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">ramp up due diligence</a> especially with China-based firms.
Washington imposed sanctions on 16 Chinese companies, including Sophgo Technologies, for building their country&#8217;s chip industry, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-15/us-unveils-new-rules-to-restrict-flow-of-advanced-chips-to-china?srnd=phx-technology&amp;sref=TBDibEcD" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cites</a> the Commerce Department.
On Monday, the U.S. disclosed sanctions on the sale of AI chips by Nvidia and other advanced makers to data centers in most countries.
The rules for AI chips follow&nbsp;controls&nbsp;announced in December that aim to block Beijing&#8217;s access to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/24/08/40198085/huawei-and-baidu-increase-samsung-hbm-purchases-as-us-curbs-loom" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">high-bandwidth memory</a> chips from Micron.
Semiconductor chip stocks enjoyed a massive upside in 2024, backed by the AI boom.
A third of the top ten global companies with valuations above $1 trillion in 2024 came from the chip industry.
Investors can gain exposure to stocks of companies that manufacture semiconductors through ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>) and Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>).
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/01/43008511/broadcoms-latest-san-switch-offers-scalable-energy-efficient-solution-for-growing-storage-demands" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Broadcom&#8217;s Latest SAN Switch Offers Scalable, Energy-Efficient Solution for Growing Storage Demands</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

AI Chip Stocks Gain Momentum On Taiwan Semiconductor Performance;  Biden's Semiconductor Sanctions Kick In

Nvidia&#8217;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>)&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors" rel="noreferrer noopener">U.S. Big Tech customers</a>, including Microsoft&nbsp;Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>), Amazon.com Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMZN#NASDAQ">AMZN</a>) Amazon Web Services, Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOGL#NASDAQ">GOOGL</a>) (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GOOG#NASDAQ">GOOG</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;Google, and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/META#NASDAQ">META</a>) postponed Blackwell GB200 rack orders due to overheating problems, Reuters cites the Information.
A data center rack accommodates chips and cables. Reportedly, Nvidia&#8217;s hyperscalar customers had placed orders worth $10 billion or more.
The first rack shipments with Blackwell chips reportedly exhibited glitches in the chips&#8217; connections, prompting customers to postpone orders for an updated version or purchase the company&#8217;s older AI chips.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42924519/nvidia-amd-broadcom-lead-semiconductor-stock-decline-amid-us-china-ai-chip-export-ban-concerns-amd-downgraded-by-goldman-sachs-and-more" rel="noreferrer noopener">Nvidia, Broadcom Among Goldman Highlights For AI Opportunities</a>
The Biden administration&#8217;s potential <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">AI chip and technology exports</a> posed a double whammy for Nvidia.
The ten leading global semiconductor companies slashed their capital expenditure plans to tackle overcapacity and weakening demand in electric vehicles and smartphones, with artificial intelligence offering minimal respite, Nikkei Asia <a target="_blank" href="https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tech/Semiconductors/Chipmakers-cut-investment-plans-by-9.5bn-on-smartphone-EV-slump" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports</a>.
Capex plans for each company&#8217;s fiscal 2024&nbsp;dropped&nbsp;to $123.3 billion (down by 2%), implying a decline of $9.5 billion from their May estimates, which predicted a 6% growth.
DA Davidson&#8217;s Gil Luria told Reuters he expects the U.S. embargo to significantly affect (Nvidia&#8217;s) market as up to 50% of its chips end up in countries that will be off-limits once the rules kick in. Dan Coatsworth of AJ Bell also voiced similar concerns about the sanctions to Reuters.
Reuters cites the company&#8217;s regulatory disclosures as indicating that Nvidia generates ~56% of its revenue from customers outside the U.S., with China making up about 17% of sales.
Nvidia Vice President of Government Affairs Ned Finkle and the Semiconductor Industry Association had expressed dissatisfaction with the U.S. semiconductor sanctions that would hinder Nvidia&#8217;s growth potential.
Interestingly, the U.S. sanctions will benefit the U.S. Big Tech giants as they can grow their market share by seeking approval to establish data centers in countries affected by the embargo.
Investors will closely watch for President-elect Donald Trump&#8217;s take on the potential semiconductor embargo.
Investors can gain exposure to stocks of companies that manufacture semiconductors through ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>) and Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>).
Price Action: NVDA stock traded higher by 1.53% to $135.27 premarket at the last check on Tuesday.
Also Read:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42947562/taiwan-semiconductor-begins-4nm-chip-production-in-arizona-eyes-11-4-billion-q4-profit" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Taiwan Semiconductor Begins 4nm Chip Production in Arizona, Eyes $11.4 Billion Q4 Profit</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by Tatiana Popova and rawf8 via Shuttterstock

AMZN

GOOG

GOOGL

US Semiconductor Sanctions Spell Trouble for Nvidia, But May Benefit Big Tech

As Washington ramps up chip export restrictions to unfriendly countries, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>) are in the midst of a geopolitical power shift that could disrupt the semiconductor <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors">industry&#8217;s global landscape.</a>
In a report shared Monday, Bloomberg outlined the Biden administration&#8217;s imminent release of updated export <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/42897081/nvidia-and-ai-chip-stocks-brace-for-impact-as-biden-administration-considers-new-china-export-ban-report">rules targeting advanced semiconductors. </a>
The new measures, expected to drop Friday, intensify the U.S.&#8217;s strategic efforts to slow China's technological and military advancements by restricting access to high-performance computing chips.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">New AI Export Framework: Allies And Adversaries</h3>
The regulations will reportedly create a three-tiered structure for semiconductor exports, emphasizing access tiers for key U.S. allies, neutral nations, and restricted countries. 
China is expected to fall under the most severe tier, joining nations such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
This tier-based framework allows certain companies in restricted countries to bypass national limits by agreeing to U.S. security protocols and human rights standards. 
These entities, designated as validated end users, would have higher caps for chip purchases, a move aimed at encouraging safer AI development globally.
The measures expand the sweeping export restrictions initiated in October 2022, which already limited sales of advanced AI chips like Nvidia's Hopper GPUs. 
These earlier rules also prohibited U.S. firms and individuals from supporting Chinese chip development without explicit government approval. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nvidia And AMD Under Scrutiny</h3>
Nvidia's specialized A800 and H800 chips, developed to comply with prior regulations, could now fall under new restrictions, potentially denting AI giant&#8217;s upcoming revenues. 
According to data firm FactSet, China accounts for approximately 16% of Nvidia&#8217;s revenue, making it the company's second-largest market after the U.S. This marks a decline from 25% prior to the 2022 export restrictions.
In 2023, AMD generated roughly $3.4 billion in revenue from China, including Hong Kong, according to Statista. This represents 15% of the company&#8217;s total revenue of $22.7 billion.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Key ETFs Tied To Nvidia And AMD</h3>
Several ETFs heavily exposed to Nvidia and AMD could face ripple effects:
Top ETFs Holding Nvidia (Percentage of Holdings):
<ul>
<li>ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>): 34.96%</li>
<li>Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SHOC#NASDAQ">SHOC</a>): 21.10%</li>
<li>YieldMax Target 12 Semiconductor Option (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXY#NASDAQ">SOXY</a>): 20.50%</li>
<li>VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>): 20.21%</li>
<li>VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMHX#NASDAQ">SMHX</a>) – 20.11%</li>
</ul>
Top ETFs Holding AMD (Percentage of Holdings):
<ul>
<li>VanEck Video Gaming and Esports ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ESPO#NASDAQ">ESPO</a>): 8.01%</li>
<li>iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXX#NASDAQ">SOXX</a>): 7.12%</li>
<li>AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AOTG#NASDAQ">AOTG</a>): 7.07%</li>
<li>Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>): 7.04%</li>
<li>REX FANG &amp; Innovation Equity ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FEPI#NASDAQ">FEPI</a>): 6.95%</li>
</ul>
Read Next: 
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/economics/macro-economic-events/25/01/42888800/goldman-sachs-flags-market-correction-risk-as-inflation-trump-policies-stir-uncertainty">Goldman Sachs Flags Market Correction Risk As Inflation, Trump Policies Stir Uncertainty</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using photos from Shutterstock.

Global

AOTG

ESPO

FEPI

EA Series Trust Strive U.S. Semiconductor ETF

SHOC

SMHX

SOXY

Biden's Final Chip Curbs Set To Shake AI Markets: 10 ETFs With High Stakes In Nvidia, AMD

<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/semiconductors" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Semiconductor chips stocks</a>, including Nvidia Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>), Advanced Micro Devices, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AMD#NASDAQ">AMD</a>), Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSM#NYSE">TSM</a>), STMicroelectronics (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STM#NYSE">STM</a>), Marvell Technology, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MRVL#NASDAQ">MRVL</a>), Micron Technology, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MU#NASDAQ">MU</a>), Arm Holdings plc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ARM#NASDAQ">ARM</a>), Qualcomm Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QCOM#NASDAQ">QCOM</a>), Super Micro Computer, Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMCI#NASDAQ">SMCI</a>) surged during premarket trading on Monday ahead of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas on Tuesday.
The investor enthusiasm also reflects Big Tech giant Microsoft Corp&#8216;s (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MSFT#NASDAQ">MSFT</a>) plans to commit <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42804813/microsofts-80-billion-investment-outlay-musks-battle-with-openai-and-nvidias-billion-dollar-bet-this-week-in-artificial-intelligence" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">$80 billion to</a> developing AI data centers in fiscal 2025. 
Additionally, Foxconn, also known as Hon Hai Technology, reported robust revenue in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/01/42808796/foxconn-posts-record-revenue-rides-high-on-ai-server-demand-and-nvidia-partnership" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the fourth quarter</a>, backed by cloud and networking products revenue and AI server demand.
Also Read: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42793170/alibaba-cloud-joins-forces-with-ex-google-execs-unicorn-to-boost-ai-models" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alibaba Cloud Joins Forces With Ex-Google Exec&#8217;s Unicorn To Boost AI Models</a>
The Taiwanese Apple Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAPL#NASDAQ">AAPL</a>) and Nvidia supplier&#8217;s revenue grew by over 15%, reaching $64.8 billion. December revenue grew by over 42% to $19.9 billion.
Investors expect Nvidia to offer positive pointers at CES, as Focus Taiwan <a href="https://focustaiwan.tw/business/202501060009" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">cites</a> MasterLink Securities analyst Tom Tang alluding to Nvidia chief Jenseng Huang&#8216;s keynote speech at the event.
The semiconductor chip stocks had a remarkable run in 2024, backed by the AI frenzy, pivotal to the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq index&#8217;s&nbsp;gains of 23%—29% in 2024.
Last year, a third of the 10 global companies worth over $1 trillion valuation were from the chip industry.
Notably, Nvidia&#8217;s valuation <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42793394/nvidias-2-trillion-ai-rally-fueled-by-chips-startups-and-robotics" rel="noreferrer noopener">surged by over</a> $2 trillion in 2024, breaching the $3 trillion mark. This was backed by its GPUs, which initially targeted video games but ended up being critical hardware for developing AI models. Broadcom joined the&nbsp;trillion-dollar club&nbsp;in 2024, supported by demand for its custom chips.
Contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42784508/taiwan-semiconductors-2nm-progress-fuels-taiwan-index-musk-highlights-talent-pool" rel="noreferrer noopener">remains on track</a> to produce 2nm chips&nbsp;in Taiwan and commercialize 4nm chips at its Arizona fab. It is a key supplier to companies such as Apple, Nvidia, AMD, and more.
Dan Ives of Wedbush expects tech stocks to post a 25% gain in 2025, backed by favorable policies from President-elect Donald Trump and Big Tech spending.
Investors can gain exposure to semiconductor stocks through ProShares Ultra Semiconductors (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/USD#NYSE">USD</a>) and Invesco PHLX Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SOXQ#NASDAQ">SOXQ</a>).
Also Read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42772915/li-auto-rerated-on-new-model-pipeline-and-autonomous-driving-advances-analyst" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Goldman Sachs Sees Strong Upside In Li Auto on New Model Pipeline and Autonomous Driving Advances</a></li>
</ul>
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