Ultime notizie per SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (ARCA:XME)

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF

Basic Materials

Energy

Industrials

In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Metals & Mining Select Industry Index (the index), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the metals and mining segment of the S&P Total Market Index (S&P TMI). The fund is non-diversified.

Carpenter Technology Corp

Ati Inc

Newmont Corp.

Royal Gold Inc

United States Steel Corp Common Stock

Steel Dynamics Inc

Reliance Steel & Aluminum Co.

Nucor Corp.

Commercial Metals Co

Hecla Mining Co

Cleveland-cliffs Inc

Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc

Core Natural Resources Inc.

Coeur Mining Inc

Analyst Color

Equities

Mid Cap

News

Upgrades

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

Trading Ideas

Analizziamo le prospettive di mercato nel settore siderurgico con l&#39;insediamento di Donald Trump dal punto di vista di Gordon L. Johnson II.

L&#39;acciaio potrebbe tornare a salire? Ecco cosa ne pensa questo analista

Xemex Group Inc

XMet Inc

JP Morgan analyst Bill Peterson downgraded United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) from Overweight to Neutral and cut the price <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/x/analyst-ratings" rel="noreferrer noopener">forecast from $43 to $38</a>.
The analyst cited the pending NSC deal, which seems to be &#8216;in the hands <a target="_blank" href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/03/44545889/nippon-attempts-to-revive-us-steel-deal-with-larger-capital-investments" rel="noreferrer noopener">of the Trump administration&#8217; as the reason</a>.
In recent news, Nippon Steel&nbsp;and&nbsp;United States Steel&nbsp;are reportedly negotiating with the Trump administration to revive their $14 billion merger by significantly boosting investments in U.S. Steel&#8217;s <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/03/44432858/us-steel-faces-q1-pressures-but-eyes-long-term-gains-from-br2-nippon-partnership" rel="noreferrer noopener">Rust Belt facilities.</a>
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/04/44733757/trump-torpedoes-us-steel-deal-x-stock-tumbles-despite-bullish-chart" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Torpedoes US Steel Deal, X Stock Tumbles Despite Bullish Chart</a>
The analyst writes that, on the demand side, construction is under pressure, while tin/container demand should benefit from S232 tariffs.
Meanwhile, Peterson believes that the auto sector may experience short-term demand pull-through from earlier pre-buying, with longer-term tariff risks potentially impacting demand.
Regarding BRS2&#8217;s ramp-up, the analyst expects upstream melt capacity to be fully online in the second half of 2025, with the entire facility reaching steady-state production by 2026.
The analyst notes that last month, the company guided for the first quarter of 2025 adjusted EPS loss of 53 cents–49 cents (vs.&nbsp;consensus loss of 30 cents) and adjusted EBITDA of about $125 million, in line with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/guidance/25/03/44432858/us-steel-faces-q1-pressures-but-eyes-long-term-gains-from-br2-nippon-partnership" rel="noreferrer noopener">prior&nbsp;outlook of&nbsp;$100 million&nbsp;– $150 million</a>.
Consequently, Peterson now estimates softer FRP shipments this year and flat next year (-0.9%/+0.4% vs. previous +0.1%/+0.0%) to account for auto tariff risks.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE" rel="noreferrer noopener"> SLX</a>) and&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: United States Steel shares are up 0.65% at $41.66 at the last check Wednesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/44727180" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Cramer Praises Trump For Pushback On Nippon &#8216;Dumper&#8217; Steel, Calls The Block A &#8216;Smart Move&#8217;</a></li>
</ul>
Photo by T. Schneide via Shutterstock

Large Cap

Downgrades

With Nippon Deal In Trump's Court, JPMorgan Turns Cautious On US Steel

United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) shares are trading lower premarket on Friday. On Thursday, the company guided for the first quarter of 2025 adjusted EPS loss of 53 cents &#8211; 49 cents vs. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/03/b44425492/united-states-steel-corporation-provides-first-quarter-2025-guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">consensus loss of 30 cents</a>.
Also, the company expects adjusted EBITDA of about $125 million in the first quarter of 2025, in line with prior&nbsp;first quarter&nbsp;outlook of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/43353295" rel="noreferrer noopener">$100 million&nbsp;&#8211; $150 million.</a>
The company projects the Flat-Rolled segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be lower sequentially on typical seasonal logistics constraints in the mining sector, which is expected to unwind in the second quarter.
United States Steel expects higher average selling prices and higher volumes <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance">to partially offset this mining impact.</a>
Meanwhile, the company anticipates Mini Mill segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be higher Q/Q on higher shipments.
Apart from this, the European segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA is expected to improve Q/Q due to an increase in shipments, volume efficiencies, and favorable raw material pricing despite the challenging demand environment in Europe.
On the other hand, the company sees Tubular segment&#8217;s adjusted EBITDA to be higher Q/Q led by an increase in prime shipments and rise in average selling prices.
President and Chief Executive Officer David B. Burritt said, &#8221;BR2 is expected to make a significant contribution to our 2025 EBITDA, with run-rate throughput expected during the second half of 2025 and full run-rate capability in 2026.&#8221;
&#8220;We applaud President Trump&#8217;s leadership and advocacy for the American steel industry in his recent tariff announcements. We continue to assess the benefit we expect from these tariff policies.&#8221;
&#8221;Combined with the partnership with Nippon Steel, which includes investment commitments, technology transfer and innovation, U. S. Steel&#8217;s future is extremely bright.&#8221;
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: X shares are down 1.34% at $40.51 premarket at the last check Friday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/03/44423382/billionaire-stanley-druckenmiller-boosts-us-steel-stake-by-143-is-he-betting-on-merger" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller Boosts US Steel Stake By 143%: Is He Betting On Merger?</a></li>
</ul>
Image via Shutterstock.

Guidance

Movers

US Steel Faces Q1 Pressures, But Eyes Long-Term Gains From BR2 & Nippon Partnership

The Trump administration granted Nippon Steel and United States Steel Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>) a 21-day extension in their lawsuit over the proposed merger, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/02/43576917/trump-says-reconsiders-nippon-steels-149-billion-us-steel-deal-theyve-agreed-to-invest-heavilyas-opposed-to-own-it" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">allowing further negotiations with regulators.</a>
What Happened: The Wall Street Journal <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/nippon-steel-u-s-steel-lawsuit-gets-extension-to-continue-government-negotiations-3638d994" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reported </a>that the Department of Justice pushed back the litigation briefing deadlines, citing a motion filed on Friday. 
Additionally, the oral argument, initially set for April 24, has been rescheduled to May 12.
The move indicates that President Donald Trump may approve the deal, <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/17/business/us-steel-nippon-trump-cfius/index.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">reports </a>CNN.
Former President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/movers/25/01/42787508/biden-blocks-14-9b-us-steel-takeover-shares-plunge">blocked it</a>, citing national security and domestic supply chain concerns.
Also Read:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/tech/25/03/44376743/google-parent-alphabet-to-acquire-wiz-in-32-billion-deal-its-biggest-bet-yet" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Google Parent Alphabet To Acquire Wiz In $32 Billion Deal, Its Biggest Bet Yet</a>
Why It Matters: Last month, Trump contemplated approving Nippon Steel&#8217;s $14.1<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/25/02/43574248/trump-hints-at-rekindling-nippon-steels-14-billion-acquisition-of-united-steel-in-talks-with-japanese-pm-ishiba" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener"> billion bid</a> for U.S. Steel as an investment rather than a purchase. The remarks were made in the presence of Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the Oval Office.
The latest extension aims to facilitate continued discussions between the companies and the government in an attempt to resolve the situation without proceeding to a full legal resolution.
In December 2023, Nippon Steel agreed to purchase U.S. Steel, but ended up in a legal dispute with the Biden administration last year over the stalled acquisition.
In early January, CEO&nbsp;Eiji Hashimoto&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/25/01/42870745/nippon-steel-ceo-slams-tariffs-defends-15-billion-us-steel-merger-amid-national-security-concerns-we-never-think-that-industry-can-become-stronger-through-tariffs-alone" rel="noreferrer noopener">dismissed tariffs as an inadequate solution</a>&nbsp;for bolstering the U.S. steel industry. He defended the merger, asserting that it would strengthen national security by creating a more resilient and competitive company.
In response, Nippon Steel and U.S. Steel filed a lawsuit in January, claiming the decision was influenced by President Biden&#8217;s desire to gain favor with the United Steelworkers union in Pennsylvania.
According to&nbsp;<a target="_blank" href="https://pro.benzinga.com/?gspk=YWRhbWVja2VydDUzMzY&amp;gsxid=zBMR4PKmcgBw" rel="noreferrer noopener">Benzinga Pro</a>, X stock has gained over 3% in the past year. Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: X shares are trading higher by 0.36% to $40.26 premarket at last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44377660/walgreens-executive-chair-stefano-pessina-seeks-to-strengthen-control-with-nearly-double-stake" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Walgreens&#8217; Executive Chair Stefano Pessina Seeks To Strengthen Control With Nearly Double Stake</a></li>
</ul>

Politics

Markets

General

Trump Eyes Approval Of Controversial Steel Merger: Nippon, US Steel Await Key Decision

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum called for increased activity in the commodity sector, urging industry leaders to seize opportunities on public lands. At the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston on Wednesday, Burgum noted the need for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities" rel="noreferrer noopener">higher domestic production</a> and reduced dependence on foreign supply chains.
"If we're going to drill, baby, drill, then we've got to be asked to also mine, baby, mine," Burgum told the audience, according <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ceraweek-us-can-slash-20-30-regulation-boost-energy-interior-secretary-says-2025-03-12/" rel="noreferrer noopener">to</a> Reuters.
President Donald Trump's administration has actively pursued policies to bolster domestic supply chains, including a yet-to-be-signed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/44057033/this-is-something-that-president-trump-does-over-and-over-again-geopolitical-strategist-says-about-failed-rare-minerals-deal-with-ukraine-president-zelenskyy" rel="noreferrer noopener">agreement with Ukraine</a> for mineral resource cooperation. Additionally, Trump has proposed building critical mineral refining facilities on Pentagon-controlled military bases.
Burgum, a former governor of North Dakota, the third-largest oil-producing state, noted opportunities to generate government revenue. According to his estimates, the current administration could unwind 20% to 30% of existing production regulations, significantly lowering the cost of commodity extraction.
The Interior Secretary stressed the importance of strengthening critical minerals production, citing growing concerns about China's dominance in the sector.
"We put ourselves in a position of incredible risk, where we've allowed ourselves to have a major competitor control 80% of the processing for critical minerals," Burgum said.
He proposed leveraging the planned U.S. sovereign wealth fund and strengthening collaboration with allied nations to secure a stable supply of key minerals like lithium and nickel to counter this situation.
According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/07/39870803/us-mine-development-delays-among-worlds-longest-second-only-to-zambia" rel="noreferrer noopener">last year's study</a>, the U.S. must find ways to cut the red tape on its mineral production. Its permitting process is the second-slowest in the world, taking as much as 29 years from discovery to production.
Still, there is a delicate balance between deregulation and environmental destruction. The Biden administration blocked one of the largest domestic projects, the Pebble Mine project in Alaska, citing environmental risks to the Bristol Bay watershed.
In response to Burgum's remarks, the National Parks Conservation Association <a target="_blank" href="https://act.npca.org/page/79022/action/1" rel="noreferrer noopener">opposed</a> increased drilling and mining near national monuments like Bears Ears and Grand Staircase-Escalante.
"If we lose these places to oil and gas development, we forfeit a century-old legacy that we will not pass on to our grandchildren," the association warned last month.
Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/03/44271394/goldman-sees-copper-imports-frontrunning-tariffs-as-fcx-positions-to-benefit" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Goldman Sachs Sees Copper Imports Frontrunning Tariffs As FCX Positions To Benefit</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Government

Regulations

Commodities

iShares Trust Dow Jones US Basic Materials Sector Index Fund

PowerShares Dynamic Basic Materials Sector Portfolio

Market Vectors Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Etf

REMX

Interior Secretary Calls For 'Mine, Baby, Mine,' Promising Cost Savings From Deregulation

The latest round of tariffs on metal imports, announced by the Trump administration, is set to create significant investment opportunities in ETFs <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/25/02/43587918/donald-trumps-expected-tariffs-on-aluminum-steel-imports-may-impact-domestic-companies-heres-a-list-of-metal-etfs-that-could-be-affected">focused on U.S. steelmakers. </a>
With a 25% tariff now set to be imposed on all steel and aluminum imports, domestic steel producers are expected to gain market share and see rising profitability. A KeyBanc Capital Markets report shows how these tariffs could reshape the steel market, reducing finished steel imports by 14% year-over-year in 2025, primarily impacting sheet and plate steel. 
Analysts anticipate U.S. steel mills capturing market share previously held by foreign competitors, reinforcing the bullish outlook for U.S. steel companies-focused ETFs.
Three <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">standout ETFs</a> are VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>), SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>), and Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PAVE#BATS">PAVE</a>).
VanEck Steel ETF 
This is a direct play on the steel sector, offering concentrated exposure to leading steel manufacturers. With holdings in Nucor (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NUE#NYSE">NUE</a>), Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>), Steel Dynamics (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLD#NASDAQ">STLD</a>), and United States Steel Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/X#NYSE">X</a>), the fund is well-positioned to benefit from higher domestic steel prices.
The new tariffs are expected to curb foreign steel imports, which accounted for a substantial share of the U.S. market. This will increase demand for domestically produced steel, boosting revenue for companies within SLX&#8217;s portfolio.
As steel prices rise, profit margins for U.S. steel producers will expand, which might be a boost for stock valuations.
Also Read: <a href="https://in.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43613133/trumps-25-tarrifs-a-self-inflicted-wound-says-economist-amid-warnings-of-fewer-american-jobs-peter-schiff-says-youll-pay-more-for-cars-and-homes">Trump&#8217;s 25% Tarrifs A &#8216;Self-Inflicted Wound,&#8217; Says Economist Amid Warnings Of Fewer American Jobs — Peter Schiff Says You&#8217;ll Pay More For Cars And Homes</a>
SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF
XME provides broader exposure to the metals and mining sector but is still heavily weighted toward steel stocks like Steel Dynamics, Nucor and United States Steel Corp.
The tariff-induced price hikes on imported steel will force industries relying on metal, such as construction, automotive, and energy, to turn to U.S.-based suppliers. Steel Dynamics, Cleveland-Cliffs, and Nucor stand to gain from increased domestic sales, while higher scrap prices further support pricing power.
Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF
PAVE is a more diversified play, offering exposure to the broader infrastructure sector, which is a major consumer of steel. Infrastructure companies like Trane Technologies (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TT#NYSE">TT</a>) and Eaton Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ETN#NYSE">ETN</a>) are part of the ETF&#8217;s portfolio.
With increased steel demand for construction projects and infrastructure spending, U.S. steel producers will see long-term growth.
Supply And Demand Shift
KeyBanc projects U.S. real carbon steel demand to grow by around 2% in 2025 (compared to a 1-2% decline in 2024), supported by rebounds in oil &amp; gas, industrial, and construction sectors. Moreover, Hot Rolled Coil (HRC) prices are expected to rise from $750 per ton to $810 per ton in 2025, buoyed by tariff-driven demand shifts and rising scrap prices.
KeyBanc analysts also upgraded Steel Dynamics to Overweight, citing improved operational efficiencies and pricing tailwinds.
The Trump administration's aggressive trade stance is designed to protect U.S. steelmakers from cheap foreign imports. KeyBanc said that analysts anticipate a boost in domestic steel production, with sector utilization rising to 78% in 2025.
Earnings Growth for Steel Stocks
Steel Dynamics: KeyBanc raised the estimated 2025 EBITDA to $2.57 billion from $2.13 billion, driven by higher utilization and rising steel prices.
Cleveland-Cliffs: The research firm raised EBITDA expectation to $1.034 billion amid improved demand for U.S.-made steel.
Nucor: Holding a Sector Weight rating, NUE's diversified steel operations make it a stable long-term play.
Parting Thoughts
The tariffs are set to create a favorable market for domestic steelmakers, and ETFs with significant exposure to U.S. steel stocks stand to gain. With KeyBanc's bullish outlook on steel demand and pricing, the ETFs discussed in this piece could see substantial upside in the months ahead.
Read Next:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43635740/eu-president-vows-firm-and-proportionate-countermeasures-after-trump-imposes-steel-aluminum-tariffs"> </a>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/global/25/02/43635740/eu-president-vows-firm-and-proportionate-countermeasures-after-trump-imposes-steel-aluminum-tariffs">EU President Vows &#8216;Firm And Proportionate Countermeasures&#8217; After Trump Imposes Steel, Aluminum Tariffs</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Vladimir Mulder/Shutterstock.com

Sector ETFs

ETFs

PAVE

STLD

Trump's Metal Tariffs Set Stage For US Steel ETF Gains

President Donald Trump announced on Sunday that he will impose new 25% <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">tariffs</a> on all steel and aluminum imports, adding to existing duties, in a further escalation of his trade policy. While this could impact domestic steel and aluminum companies, investors can consider the following list of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to trade following the development.
What Happened: On his way to the NFL Super Bowl in New Orleans, Trump spoke to reporters on Air Force One, and said he would reveal the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">new tariffs</a> on Monday, followed by reciprocal tariffs on Tuesday or Wednesday, matching the rates imposed by other countries.
Tariffs impact domestic companies by influencing costs, competitiveness, and supply chains
According to a report by the First National Bank of Omaha and the think tank Council on Foreign Relations, the negative effects of tariffs include increased input costs, reduced competitiveness, disruption in supply chains, retaliation, diversion in investment, and reduced consumer spending. On the positive side, tariffs may temporarily protect domestic industries and generate government revenue.
Investors should look out for the following metal ETFs as Trump is likely to impose tariffs on imports.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Fund Name</td>
<td>AUM</td>
<td>Expense Ratio</td>
<td>Six Month Returns</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>)</td>
<td>$75.23 million</td>
<td>0.56%</td>
<td>-4.88%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Invesco DB Base Metals Fund (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DBB#NYSE">DBB</a>)</td>
<td>$112.4 million</td>
<td>0.79%</td>
<td>2.39%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>iShares U.S. Basic Materials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYM#NYSE">IYM</a>)</td>
<td>$534.51 million</td>
<td>0.39%</td>
<td>-0.68%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>)</td>
<td>$1623.5 million</td>
<td>0.35%</td>
<td>5.00%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Iron ore, a key ingredient in steelmaking, saw its prices rise 0.71% in Singapore around 3:43 p.m. local time, while aluminum futures on the Comex gained 0.49%.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/25/02/43583123/trump-to-announce-25-steel-and-aluminum-tariffs-economist-warns-president-is-making-us-manufacturing-globally-uncompetitive">Trump To Announce 25% Steel And Aluminum Tariffs — Economist Warns President Is &#8216;Making US Manufacturing Globally Uncompetitive&#8217;</a> 
Why It Matters: Although Trump initially paused tariffs on Canada and Mexico, he has renewed threats by specifically targeting metals in his media interactions on Sunday.
According to the American Iron and Steel Institute&#8217;s January <a href="https://www.steel.org/2025/02/aisi-releases-january-sima-imports-data-4/">data</a>, the U.S. gets most of its imported steel from Canada, Brazil, and Mexico, followed by South Korea and Vietnam. 
&#8220;Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the U.S., from defence, shipbuilding, and auto,&#8221; said the Canadian Minister of Innovation, Science and Industry, Francois-Philippe Champagne, in an X post.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">Let's all be clear. Canadian steel and aluminum support key industries in the U.S. from defence, shipbuilding and auto. This is making North America more competitive and secure. We will continue to stand up for Canada, our workers, and our industries. <a href="https://t.co/NBFeU6Y8zN">pic.twitter.com/NBFeU6Y8zN</a>
&mdash; François-Philippe Champagne (FPC) &#x1f1e8;&#x1f1e6; (@FP_Champagne) <a href="https://twitter.com/FP_Champagne/status/1888754195727106310?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 10, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Citing the risks of these metal tariffs, Joseph Brusuelas, the principal and chief economist at RSM US said that other countries could follow to protect their economies, and a much larger trade war could ensue after these impositions by Trump.
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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">US-China Trade War: With Trump set to announce 25% tariffs on aluminum &amp; steel imports and the Chinese imposing $14 billion on trade taxes on U.S. good it is likely that a series of tit-for-tat retaliation has begun. A look at relative yield differentials between the US and… <a href="https://t.co/ACWRKgzlmg">pic.twitter.com/ACWRKgzlmg</a>
&mdash; Joseph Brusuelas (@joebrusuelas) <a href="https://twitter.com/joebrusuelas/status/1888728283392667924?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
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Read Next:
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/02/43521806/deepseeks-hedge-fund-owner-had-multiple-top-projects-before-creating-the-firm-that-fueled-1-trillion-market-cap-erosion-of-ai-stocks">DeepSeek&#8217;s Hedge Fund Owner Had Multiple Top Projects Before Creating The Firm That Fueled $1 Trillion Market Cap Erosion Of AI Stocks</a></li>
</ul>
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock

Economics

Donald Trump's Expected Tariffs On Aluminum, Steel Imports May Impact Domestic Companies: Here's A List Of Metal ETFs That Could Be Affected

The energy transition is reshaping the global mining industry, with demand for critical minerals expected to surge over the coming decades. A shift toward renewable energy and electrification drives demand for commodities like copper, nickel, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/23/07/33233340/rare-earth-elements-explained" rel="noreferrer noopener">rare earth elements</a>.
According to BDO's Annual Mining Report, the demand for key energy transition minerals will <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bdo.co.uk/en-gb/insights/industries/natural-resources-and-energy/annual-mining-report" rel="noreferrer noopener">nearly triple by 2030</a> and quadruple by 2040.
Copper remains a cornerstone of the transition, as it is the only critical mineral vital for all clean energy technologies, such as solar, wind, electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, and power grids.
While copper prices hit a record high in mid-2024, they later softened due to weak demand from China's property market. In 2025, forecasts suggest continued price constraints due to high inventories despite the long-term positive outlook.
Merger and acquisition activity has surged – with mining giant BHP <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/05/39068033/time-runs-out-for-bhp-deal-49-billion-acquisition-of-anglo-american-proves-too-complex-to-solve" rel="noreferrer noopener">unsuccessfully bidding</a> for Anglo American and launching a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/40031488/bhp-to-unlock-south-american-copper-riches-partners-with-lundin-for-filo-acquisition" rel="noreferrer noopener">joint venture</a> with Lundin. Meanwhile, sector leader Freeport-McMoRan is opting for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/09/41098074/freeport-mcmoran-sticks-with-organic-growth-takes-advantage-of-geodiversity" rel="noreferrer noopener">capex-driven internal expansion</a>.
Nickel, a metal essential for battery technologies, has faced a turbulent period. In 2024, an oversupply from Indonesia and China led to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/large-cap/24/07/39749321/bhp-halts-nickel-mine-were-not-able-to-overcome-economic-challenges-driven-by-oversupply" rel="noreferrer noopener">mine closures</a>, including those operated by Glencore and BHP. However, a rebound is expected in 2025 as supply surpluses narrow and demand for EV batteries remains strong.
Despite the forecasted price stabilization, industry players remain cautious, with some automakers shifting towards alternative battery chemistries that reduce dependence on nickel.
Zinc, another key transition metal used in wind and solar infrastructure, experienced a sluggish first half of 2024 due to subdued industrial activity but rebounded later in the year thanks to Chinese stimulus measures.
In 2025, BDO expects the demand to strengthen as renewable energy projects ramp up. Still, supply constraints and logistical challenges may continue to drive price fluctuations.
The rare earth element market is also in focus as countries look to diversify their supply chains since the U.S., China, and Myanmar account for 92% of global production.
President Donald Trump's recent remark shows the importance of this group of metals, which is vital for producing magnets.
"We're looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they're going to secure what we're giving them with their rare earths and other things," he said,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trump-says-he-wants-ukraine-supply-us-with-rare-earths-2025-02-03/" rel="noreferrer noopener"> per</a> Reuters.
Looking forward, despite opportunities created by the energy transition, BDO notes a pressing demographic challenge.
Per McKinsey's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/metals-and-mining/our-insights/has-mining-lost-its-luster-why-talent-is-moving-elsewhere-and-how-to-bring-them-back" rel="noreferrer noopener">survey</a> of Canadian mining companies, 70% of people between 15 and 30 years old would not consider working in mining. Meanwhile, between 2016 and 2022, the number of mining engineering graduates in the U.S. fell by 41%.
While the industry tries to reverse the trend by integrating advanced technologies and enhancing sustainability efforts to create a more attractive work environment – closing the skills gap remains a key. To drive the next phase of mining evolution, the future workforce will need expertise in automation, AI, and environmental management.
Read Next:&nbsp;
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/02/43432736/copper-stocks-on-shaky-ground-jpmorgan-analysts-say-tariffs-deepseek-cloud-outlook" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook</a></li>
</ul>
Photo via Shutterstock

Global

COPX

CPER

PICK

SLVP

Critical Metal Demand To Triple By 2030, But Demographics Pose Risks

Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>) shares are trading lower Monday after the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43431003/cleveland-cliffs-provides-preliminary-fourth-quarter-and-full-year-2024-results" rel="noreferrer noopener"> company reported preliminary results</a>.
For the fourth quarter of 2024, Cleveland-Cliffs expects steel shipments of 3.8 million net tons, with revenues of around $4.30 billion <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">(vs. consensus of $4.49 billion)</a>.
Also, the company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of about $85 million in the quarter.
For 2024, steel shipments are expected to reach 15.6 million net tons, with revenues around $19.2 billion (vs. street view of $19.37 billion) and adjusted EBITDA of around $775 million.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41690362">Including Stelco</a>, the pro-forma adjusted EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be about $1.2 billion.
Cleveland-Cliffs attributed its weaker results, particularly in fourth-quarter, to subdued demand from the North American automotive sector.
Lourenco Goncalves, Cliffs&#8217; Chairman, President, and CEO, said, &#8221;So far into this new year, we have already seen improvements in our order book, both automotive and non-automotive, and are confident that the manufacturing-friendly items on President Trump&#8217;s agenda will have an outsized benefit on Cleveland-Cliffs.&#8221;
&#8221;This includes the recently announced tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China and the expectation that there is more to come on steel specifically. Stelco has been a major contributor since day 1 and a substantial portion of our expected synergies are already in motion. Based on their experience in 2018, we expect Stelco will benefit from steel tariffs as well. We look forward to the success in 2025 that all of these developments will ultimately bring.&#8221;
&#8220;We applaud President Trump for taking decisive action on tariffs. Cleveland-Cliffs is a firm believer in the long-term positive impact that tariffs can play to make America a manufacturing superpower once again.&#8221;
Apart from this, Cleveland-Cliffs disclosed its intention to offer $750 million in Senior Guaranteed Notes due 2031, subject to market <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/02/b43431022/cleveland-cliffs-inc-announces-proposed-offering-of-750-million-of-senior-unsecured-guaranteed-not" rel="noreferrer noopener">conditions and other factors</a>.
The company plans to use the net proceeds for general corporate purposes, which includes the repayment of borrowings under its asset-based credit facility.
The company plans to release fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener">results on February 24, 2025</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) and VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>).
Price Action: CLF shares are down 2.64% at $9.97 at the last check Monday.
Read Next:
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</ul>
Photo: Vladimir Mulder/Shutterstock.com.

Earnings

Cleveland-Cliffs Predicts Q4 Revenue Miss & EBITDA Loss, CEO Applauds Trump's Tariffs For 2025 Boost

Hedge funds have always been closely watched for cues on investment opportunities. Although their strategies can be complex, understanding the trends they're bullish on can offer important insights for retail investors. 
Siddharth Singhai, CIO of value-based global hedge fund IronHold Capital, recently shared his perspective on sectors worth watching, and how <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs">ETFs can help investors</a> capitalize on these themes. 
From automobiles and homebuilding to mining and AI, here are some ETFs based on his insights:
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Automobile Industry On Third Gear</h1>
One area drawing attention is the U.S. auto industry. With protectionist policies likely to intensify under the Trump administration, automakers such as General Motors Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GM#NYSE">GM</a>), Ford Motor Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/F#NYSE">F</a>), and Stellantis NV (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/STLA#NYSE">STLA</a>) stand to benefit significantly, according to Singhai. 
Possible tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles could set the playing field for these companies, making the U.S. auto sector one to keep a close eye on. 
&#8220;We do anticipate a clear protectionism policy in place for U.S. auto, specifically the big three: General Motors, Ford and Stellantis. Simply because if the tariffs were not put in place against Chinese EVs, U.S. automakers would be at about a 30% to 40% cost disadvantage, which would essentially mean the end of U.S. auto as we know it,&#8221; said Singhai.
However, as a word of caution, he said that one should be wary of auto companies that might face trouble in the face of EV revolution. 
&#8220;We believe U.S. autos and U.S. auto parts suppliers, who have been hit badly due to the excess inventories prevailing in the U.S. auto industry in general, could be a good hunting ground, potentially. Although investors should be focused on auto suppliers that are probably not going to get disrupted by the EV transition,&#8221; Singhai said.
For investors, ETFs like the First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles &amp; Tech (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CARZ#NASDAQ">CARZ</a>) offer exposure to the expected surge in domestic automotive manufacturing. The ETF has an expense ratio of 0.7% and among its holdings are Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TSLA#NASDAQ">TSLA</a>), Ford, General Motors and Stellantis.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/25/01/43236579/chinas-deepseek-ai-rattles-tech-stocks">China&#8217;s DeepSeek AI Rattles Tech Stocks, Analyst Ives Says Market Plunge &#8216;Golden Buying Opportunity&#8217;</a>
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Home Building Industry In Focus</h1>
Homebuilders are another promising area, according to Singhai. Despite overvaluation concerns in the equity market, the housing sector continues to experience a significant supply-demand imbalance. Years of undersupply following the 2008 financial crisis created the opportunity for select homebuilding companies to thrive.
&#8220;U.S. market is extremely overvalued at the moment, and there are not that many sectors that could be happy hunting grounds for hedge funds or value investors like us. In general, homebuilders, some of them, seem to be still attractively positioned given the great imbalance between supply and demand, mainly because of years of undersupply post-Great Recession in 2008-&#8217;09. So we believe homebuilders, some of them, present very compelling opportunities,&#8221; Singhai noted.
Investors interested in this space might consider ETFs such as the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITB#BATS">ITB</a>), which focuses on leading players in the sector, such as Builders Firstsource, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/BLDR#NYSE">BLDR</a>) and Lowes Companies, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LOW#NYSE">LOW</a>). The expense ratio that this ETF carries is 0.39%.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">Mining — Hidden Gems To Look For</h1>
Mining is another area that stands out. Many companies in this space, especially low-cost producers, are undervalued and largely overlooked by the market. These firms could see strong performance with a rebound in global demand for raw materials.
&#8220;Mining companies also seem to be hit badly and ignored by investors. You could find some really good mining companies that are the lowest cost producers in their respective industries that could prove to be high performers over the next two to three years,&#8221; Singhai noted from his expertise.
ETFs such as the SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) invest in a range of mining companies and could be a good fit for investors looking to capture growth in this area. The ETF carries an expense ratio of 0.35% and holdings in Hecla Mining Co (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HL#NYSE">HL</a>) and Reliance Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RS#NYSE">RS</a>), among others.
<h1 class="wp-block-heading">AI Trends To Watch</h1>
Singhai also touched upon the continued interest in semiconductors and AI. While these industries are undeniably buzzing, he warns against impulsive investing. Many companies in this space are trading at lofty valuations that may not be sustainable. 
&#8220;I do foresee a lot of hedge funds diving right into semiconductors and AI stocks. I also believe more retail investors will seriously consider allocating capital to this particular sector moving forward as well. However, it is ripe with extreme bubble-like valuations. The marquee names in the AI industry are trading for as high as 20 to 50 times revenue, which to us seems excessive even given the promise of AI,&#8221; he said.
Singhai also added, &#8220;Not all AI companies can capture 50% of the market or even 30% of the market, and if they fail to do so, they cannot foreseeably justify their current valuations. This leads us to the ultimate conclusion that there will be a few big winners and many, many losers within the industry. As such, most AI companies do not deserve their expensive, hefty valuations.&#8221;
For those interested in exploring the AI-driven growth story, a diversified ETF like the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SMH#NASDAQ">SMH</a>) offers exposure to leading players like NVDIA Corp (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVDA#NASDAQ">NVDA</a>) and Broadcom Inc&nbsp;(NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AVGO#NASDAQ">AVGO</a>) while mitigating the risks of betting on individual stocks. And the cost of investing in this ETF is also reasonable at 0.35%.
All that said, Singhai emphasized the route of ETFs should be seen as tools for diversification and steady returns — not as a shortcut to mimicking hedge fund performance. It will be wise for retail investors to focus on sectors with solid fundamentals rather than on speculative trends.
See Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/new-etfs/25/01/43198940/how-foliobeyonds-innovative-fixed-income-etf-can-provide-low-risk-income-generation-in-volatile-tim">How FolioBeyond&#8217;s Innovative Fixed Income ETF Can Provide Low-Risk Income Generation In Volatile Times</a></li>
</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Hedge Funds

AVGO

BLDR

CARZ

iShares Dow Jones US Homenstruction Index Fund

NVDA

STLA

TSLA

IronHold Capital CIO Reveals Trends Hedge Funds Track: 4 ETFs To Watch

Trump's first day in office brought a wave of executive orders targeting immigration, energy, social policies, and announcing the withdrawal from global agreements like the Paris Climate Accord and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">the World Health Organization. </a>
Trump also pledged to raise tariffs up to 25% on both Canada and Mexico starting Feb. 1, but fell short of announcing universal tariffs on all imports.
Following Monday&#8217;s market closure for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, investors began assessing how Trump's new policy measures could impact sectors across the board. 
Gold miners and defense stocks outperformed, while solar energy companies were among the hardest hit.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Wall Street&#8217;s Winners And Losers After Trump&#8217;s Day 1</h3>
Gold miners were among the standout performers, amid rising trade fears between the U.S. and Canada. 
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) climbed 2.6% by 1:30 p.m. ET Tuesday. Leading gains were Harmony Gold Mining Co. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HMY#NYSE">HMY</a>), up 4.3% and Endeavour Silver Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EXK#NYSE">EXK</a>), up 3.1%.
&#8220;While President Trump's Inauguration Day policy announcements on tariffs were more benign than expected, we continue to expect the White House to increase tariff rates on autos and imports from China, and we see other tariff proposals as a risk,&#8221; Goldman Sach&#8217;s analyst Elsie Peng wrote in a note Tuesday.
Defense stocks also surged as Trump's policies emphasized national security and border protection declaring a &#8220;national emergency&#8221; at the southern border with Mexico. The iShares U.S. Aerospace &amp; Defense ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/ITA#NYSE">ITA</a>) rose 3.3%.
Other notable movers included the U.S. Global Jets ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/JETS#NYSE">JETS</a>), up 2%, and the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>), which rose 1.6% as investors bet on increased demand for industrial materials.
Oil and gas exploration companies saw declines despite <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/government/regulations/25/01/43097430/trumps-drill-baby-drill-era-begins-oil-prices-tumble-us-energy-stocks-edge-up">Trump's "Drill, Baby, Drill"</a> push to unleash U.S. energy resources. The SPDR S&amp;P Oil &amp; Gas Exploration &amp; Production ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XOP#NYSE">XOP</a>) dropped 1.1%, signaling concerns about potential oversupply.
Clean energy and solar stocks, however, suffered from Trump's decision to halt offshore wind leasing and withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Climate Accord. 
The Invesco Solar ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/TAN#NYSE">TAN</a>) fell 3.1%, with losses from Daqo New Energy Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/DQ#NYSE">DQ</a>), down 6.7%, and First Solar Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FSLR#NASDAQ">FSLR</a>), which dropped 5.4%. The Invesco WilderHill Clean Energy ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PBW#NYSE">PBW</a>) slipped 1%.
Read Next: 
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</ul>
Photo: Shutterstock

Econ #s

FSLR

Market Vectors ETF Trust Market Vectors Gold Miners

iShares Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Index Fund

JETS

PowerShares Exchange Traded Fund Trust WilderHill Clean Energy Portfolio

Trump's First Day Sends Gold Miners, Defense Stocks Soaring, Solar Sliding

As metals markets weather volatility, optimism for a &#8220;V-shaped recovery&#8221; is gaining traction. JPMorgan analysts Dominic O&#8217;Kane and Patrick Jones suggest <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/12/42692036/billionaire-investors-michael-burry-david-tepper-could-benefit-from-chinas-stimulus-measures">China's expected fiscal stimulus</a> could be the turning point for the sector. 
With metal prices poised for a rebound, they urge investors to &#8220;accumulate positions in oversold miners&#8221; like Anglo American PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NGLOY#OTCQX">NGLOY</a>) (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AAUKF#OTCQX">AAUKF</a>), First Quantum Minerals Ltd (OTCPK:FQVLF) and Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK:LUNMF).
Exchange-traded funds like the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>), the iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>) provide diversified exposure to the metals and mining sector.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Mining Stocks Set For Revival?</h2>
The 17% decline in European metals &amp; mining stocks since late September 2024 reflects market caution amid tariff risks and US$/CNY devaluation. However, analysts see this downturn as an opportunity for strategic investment. Anglo American faces near-term challenges, including $2 billion in impairments and delays in its diamond divestment strategy. Despite this, the company may emerge as an M&amp;A target post the Anglo Platinum de-merger.
Lundin Mining and Norsk Hydro ASA (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NHYDY#OTCQX">NHYDY</a>) stand out as resilient picks, with strong fundamentals that may help them weather tariff-related uncertainties. 
Analysts maintain a positive outlook on these names, expecting them to benefit from the broader market recovery.
Read Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/24/12/42455382/gold-to-shine-bright-in-2025-as-top-investment-bank-predicts-bullish-outlook-amid-trade-tensions">Gold To Shine Bright In 2025 As Top Investment Bank Predicts Bullish Outlook Amid Trade Tensions</a>
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Gold Stocks Shine Amid Market Turbulence</h2>
Gold continues to prove its mettle as a safe-haven asset, with prices projected to rise to $2,100 per ounce. 
Stocks like AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>), Hochschild Mining PLC (OTCQX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCHDF#OTCQX">HCHDF</a>), and Fresnillo PLC (OTCPK:FNLPF) remain key picks by the analysts, supported by strong silver production forecasts and rising demand for precious metals.
The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>) and the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDXJ#NYSE">GDXJ</a>) are popular ways to get exposure to gold miners&#8217; stocks.
The analysts highlight Fresnillo's silver production strength, placing it on a Positive Catalyst Watch.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">China's Stimulus: The Tipping Point?</h2>
All eyes are on the March 5 National People&#8217;s Congress, where China is expected to announce fiscal measures that could fuel a surge in metal prices. 
The analysts believe these moves could trigger a sharp market recovery, solidifying the case for accumulating positions in mining stocks before a potential uptrend.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">The Takeaway</h2>
As metals markets teeter on the edge of revival, accumulating oversold miners may offer strategic value ahead of a &#8220;V-shaped recovery.&#8221; 
Read Next: 
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/sector-etfs/25/01/42986605/exclusive-energy-semiconductors-could-dominate-portfolios-in-2025-says-direxion-ceo" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">EXCLUSIVE: Energy, Semiconductors Could Dominate Portfolios In 2025, Says Direxion CEO</a></li>
</ul>
Image created using photos from Shutterstock.

Asia

Long Ideas

Specialty ETFs

AAUKF

FNLPF

FQVLF

GDXJ

HCHDF

LUNMF

NGLOY

NHYDY

Will Gold, Mining Stocks Ride A 'V-Shaped Recovery'? Analysts Say Accumulate 'Oversold Miners'

Donald Trump's economic planning is often referred to as "Maganomics," a phrase based on his campaign slogan, "Make <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/donald-trump">America Great Again.&#8221; </a> Trump&#8217;s policy ideas have led to divided opinions between economists and investors, according to a <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/cbdcf6f1-16d5-4ce9-aa94-5d3098cc19b8">report </a>by the Financial Times. The former worry about the potential shortcomings of protectionist policies such as tariffs and immigration curbs, while investors are focusing on the brighter side, especially for U.S. manufacturing. And here's where things get interesting— certain ETFs might gain from these dynamics.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/25/01/42948649/goldman-sachs-warns-of-90-oil-risk-trump-may-not-ease-sanctions-once-he-takes-office">Oil Could Hit $90, Goldman Sachs Says: &#8216;Trump May Not Ease Sanctions&#8217; On Russia</a>
Trump's targeted tariffs and pro-business standpoint is designed to increase domestic manufacturing and attract investment into sectors like industrials and materials. The idea is simple: by imposing tariffs on imports, U.S.-made goods become more competitive and encourage domestic manufacturers to up their production. For investors, this shift can push economic growth, despite warnings from experts.
This optimism among investors makes ETFs heavy on manufacturing and industrial growth particularly appealing. Funds like the iShares U.S. Industrials ETF (BATS:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IYJ#BATS">IYJ</a>) or the SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) could gain directly from increased investment in American factories and infrastructure. These ETFs provide exposure to companies that are likely to thrive under policies encouraging domestic production.
The iShares U.S. Industrials ETF has an expense ratio of 0.39% and includes some big names in the industrials sector, like GE Aerospace (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GE#NYSE">GE</a>), Honeywell International (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HON#NYSE">HON</a>) and Lockheed Martin (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/LMT#NYSE">LMT</a>) in its holdings.
Meanwhile, the SPDR S&amp;P Metals and Mining ETF, with an even lower expense ratio of 0.35%, is exposed to the steel industry by 51.04%, coal and consumable fuels by 13.31%, aluminum by 7.18% and diversified metal and mining by 5.58%, among others.
An analyst at T. Rowe Price, cited by the Financial Times, suggests that Trump&#8217;s pro-business policies could encourage companies previously hesitant under past administrations to boost their spending.
This could also help funds like the Vanguard Industrials ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/VIS#NYSE">VIS</a>), which invests in a broader range of industrial sectors.
Ultimately, the appeal of "Maganomics" for investors lies in how likely it is to create short-term winners, especially in manufacturing and industrials. ETFs that play with these themes could allow investors to ride the wave of optimism while diversifying risk.
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Image created using photos from Shutterstock.

iShares Trust Dow Jones US Industrial Sector Index Fund

How Trump's 'Maganomics' Could Power Industrials-Focused ETFs

GLJ Research analyst Gordon L. Johnson II upgraded Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>) to Buy from Sell rating with <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/clf/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">a price forecast of $14.27</a>.
The analyst notes the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many acknowledge. With Donald Trump set to take office on January 20, 2025, and his pro-tariff policies likely impacting sectors like steel, the analyst foresee a potential rise in U.S. HRC prices in the near term.
In particular, the analyst says that following Trump&#8217;s win (November 2016), and Joe Biden&#8217;s win (November 2020), U.S. HRC spot prices rose by +25.5% and +65.9%, respectively, three months out. However, since Trump&#8217;s win on November 5, 2024, U.S. HRC spot prices have declined by 6.9%.
Also, the positive seasonality typically seen in the U.S. steel sector from January to April, and CLF&#8217;s stock performance in particular, raises the question: &#8220;Is now an opportune time to dip one&#8217;s feet back into the &#8216;long-U.S.-
steel-stocks pool&#8217;?&#8221; adds the analyst.
Notably, Johnson II states that from the month Trump was first elected to the month he lost to Biden, U.S. steel imports fell by a significant -51.1%, from 2.5 million tons to 1.2 million tons. This decline is often attributed to Trump&#8217;s pro-U.S. steel policies.
Incorporating Stelco&#8217;s additional tons into CLF&#8217;s 2025 estimated output, and assuming U.S. HRC prices rise to $900/ton in May 2025 before falling to $705/ton by July, the analyst estimate CLF&#8217;s 2025 aggregated steel price to be $1,055/ton, slightly higher than the consensus estimate of $1,050.22/ton.
For 2026, Johnson II forecast an average price of $1,068/ton, reflecting a +1.2% year-over-year increase, vs. the consensus estimate of $1,084.42/ton.
Consequently, the analyst project 2025 adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $945 million and -$0.56, respectively, vs. consensus estimates of $1.32 billion and -$0.09.
In 2026, the analyst expects adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS of $1.804 billion and $1.06, respectively, while the consensus estimates are $1.884 million and $0.69.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: CLF shares are up 1.26% at $10.03 at the last check Tuesday.
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</ul>
Photo by QinJin on Shutterstock.

Analyst Sees US Steel Price Rebound Under Trump's Pro-Tariff Stance, Upgrades Cleveland-Cliffs Stock

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Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>) shares are trading lower on Tuesday following weak third-quarter <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/24/11/41730393/cleveland-cliffs-q3-earnings-revenue-eps-miss-on-weaker-demand-and-pricing-shares-slide" rel="noreferrer noopener">results reported on Tuesday</a>.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of&nbsp;$4.57 billion, versus&nbsp;estimates&nbsp;of $4.77 billion, and adjusted loss per share of $0.33, versus estimates for a loss of $0.27.
Cleveland-Cliffs lowered its capital expenditures outlook for full year 2024 from a range of $650 million to $700 million to a new range of<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener"> $600 million to $650 million</a>.
In the earnings press release, the company said Stelco&#8217;s assets are well-capitalized, and it expects to benefit from the company&#8217;s cost advantages and strong business model on day one. Cleveland-Cliffs noted Stelco&#8217;s business has &#8220;virtually no exposure&#8221; to the automotive sector.&nbsp;
B Riley Securities analyst Lucas N. Pipes says that based on management&#8217;s earlier comments, they previously projected $985 million for 2025 and anticipate insights on the significant reductions.
The analyst adds that Cliffs&#8217; acquisition of Stelco was finalized on November 1, and they are eager to hear management&#8217;s thoughts on the integration process, potential synergies, debt reduction, and product mix.
Also, the analyst anticipates updated insights from management regarding the timeline for the integration process of the Stelco acquisition and the complete realization of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39770873/cleveland-cliffs-doubles-down-on-steel-with-2-5b-acquisition-expects-120m-in-annual-savings" rel="noreferrer noopener">$120 million in cost synergies</a>.
The analyst maintains the <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/CLF/analyst-ratings">Buy rating and $21 price forecast.</a>
KeyBanc Capital Markets analyst Philip Gibbs writes that Cleveland-Cliffs reported EBITDA of $124 million for the quarter, compared to their estimate of $134 million. The slight shortfall in steel volumes appears to be linked to adjustments in automotive production and inventory.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) and&nbsp;VanEck Steel ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SLX#NYSE">SLX</a>).
Price Action: CLF shares are down 10.3% at $11.76 at the last check Tuesday.
Read Next:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/esg/24/11/41722922/trump-vs-harris-evgo-cleveland-cliffs-plug-power-nucor-brace-for-2024-election-impact" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Trump Vs. Harris: EVgo, Cleveland-Cliffs, Plug Power, Nucor Brace For 2024 Election Impact</a></li>
</ul>

Reiteration

Cleveland-Cliffs' Q3 Shortfall Linked To Automotive Adjustments; Analysts Await Stelco Integration Insights

Alcoa Corporation&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) shares are trading lower on Thursday after rebounding from Wednesday&#8217;s increase.
Yesterday, the company reported third-quarter sales of $2.904 billion, missing the consensus of $2.967 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.57, exceeding <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41376546" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">the consensus of $0.28</a>.
JPMorgan analyst Bill Peterson raised the price target to $39 from $36 while <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/AA/analyst-ratings" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">maintaining a Neutral rating</a>.
The analyst wrote that with low-hanging fruit already secured, future progress depends on savings from Kwinana's curtailment, the ramp-up at Warrick/Alumar and potential benefits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA).
The analyst anticipated additional support from lagged alumina pricing for the fourth quarter before it normalizes later next year.
The analyst said he is also eager for updates on the proposed San Ciprian resolution, which seemed to hinge on government and union cooperation before funding runs out in the coming months.
Also Read: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/41387068" rel="noreferrer noopener">Alcoa Analysts Increase Their Forecasts After Upbeat Earnings</a>
Alcoa appeared to be adopting a disciplined approach to enhance efficiencies, reduce costs and streamline its portfolio, which was expected to strengthen its capital structure and generate further EBITDA growth independent of commodity pricing, added the analyst.
The analyst did reflect a cautious near-term outlook for aluminum due to conflicting indicators from China, the potential impact of the U.S. elections and the beginning of the Federal Reserve&#8217;s rate-cutting cycle.
The analyst believed the market needs more evidence of supportive fiscal stimulus from China, improved macroeconomic activity and significant inventory draws to trigger the next sustainable increase in aluminum pricing, likely extending into 2025.
Overall, the analyst said execution remained a "show me" story, with the next catalyst likely being a decision regarding the loss-making San Ciprian complex before the end of 2024.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Macquarie ETF Trust Macquarie Energy Transition ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWER#NYSE">PWER</a>) and&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
AA Price Action: Alcoa shares are down 3.73% at $40.50 at publication Thursday.
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Photo: Shutterstock

PWER

Alcoa Analyst Boosts Price Target: Growth Strategy Hinges On Kwinana Savings, San Ciprian Resolution

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) shares are trading higher on premarket Thursday. On Wednesday, the company reported third quarter sales of $2.904 billion, <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41368327/alcoa-corporation-reports-third-quarter-2024-results" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">missing the consensus of $2.967 billion</a>.
Alumina production dropped 4% sequentially&nbsp;to 2.44 million metric tons, mainly due to the full curtailment of the Kwinana refinery in June 2024.
Meanwhile, aluminum production rose 3% sequentially&nbsp;to 559,000 metric tons, driven by progress on the Alumar smelter restart.
In the Alumina segment, third-party shipments dropped 9% sequentially, mainly due to reduced trading activity.
In the Aluminum segment, total shipments fell 6% on a sequential basis, owing to lower trading and shipment timing.
Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, rose to $455 million from $325 million in the second quarter thanks to higher alumina prices and lower raw material costs.
Adjusted EPS&nbsp;of $0.57 exceeded<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/earnings" rel="noreferrer noopener"> the consensus of $0.28</a>.
The company ended the third quarter of 2024 with a cash balance of $1.3 billion.
Dividend: The Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on November 15 to stockholders of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41355285/alcoa-corporation-declares-quarterly-cash-dividend" rel="noreferrer noopener">record as of October 29</a>.
Outlook: Alcoa maintains its 2024 Alumina segment production forecast at 9.8 to 10 million metric tons while increasing its shipment projection to 12.9 to 13.1 million metric tons, up by 0.2 million metric tons from the prior forecast <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/calendars/guidance" rel="noreferrer noopener">due to higher trading volumes</a>.
This gap between production and shipments is attributed to the use of externally sourced alumina to meet contracts following the Kwinana refinery curtailment.
Aluminum segment production and shipment estimates remain unchanged, with production expected between 2.2 and 2.3 million metric tons, and shipments between 2.5 and 2.6 million metric tons.
In fourth quarter, Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA is expected to see a $30 million sequential benefit from higher shipments and lower costs, while the Aluminum Segment is anticipated to perform flat, maintaining the third quarter levels.
Alcoa President and CEO William F. Oplinger said, &#8221;We gained flexibility after closing the Alumina Limited acquisition and announced the sale of our interest<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40873786/alcoa-pockets-1-1b-from-saudi-joint-venture-sale-details" rel="noreferrer noopener"> in the Ma&#8217;aden joint ventures</a>.&#8221;
&#8220;Positive markets and our focus on continuous improvement led to stronger results for the third quarter, while we continue to execute initiatives to further enhance our operations.&#8221;
In a separate release, Alcoa and IGNIS Equity Holding disclosed plans to move forward with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41367645/alcoa-and-ignis-eqt-progress-toward-strategic-agreement-to-support-future-of-alcoa-san-cipri-n-ope" rel="noreferrer noopener">strategic cooperation agreement</a>.
The partnership aims to support the ongoing operation of Alcoa&#8217;s San Ciprián facilities.
This week, the company announced a long-term agreement to supply Aluminium Bahrain B.S.C. (Alba) with up to 16.5 million tonnes of smelter-grade <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/10/b41328920/alcoa-announces-long-term-alumina-supply-contract-extension-with-aluminium-bahrain" rel="noreferrer noopener">alumina over the next ten years</a>.
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Macquarie ETF Trust Macquarie Energy Transition ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWER#NYSE">PWER</a>) and&nbsp;SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF&nbsp;(NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: AA shares are up 5.18% at $44.25 premarket at the last check Thursday.
Photo via Shutterstock
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Alcoa Beats Q3 EPS Expectations, Rides Alumina Price Surge Despite Production Hiccups

U.S. metals and mining stocks posted their strongest one-day rally of 2024 on Tuesday, driven by China&#8217;s unexpected <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/09/41003814/chinese-stocks-jump-as-central-bank-unveils-major-stimulus-to-spur-economy-a-step-in-the-right-direc">and substantial monetary easing. </a>
The People&#8217;s Bank of China&#8217;s (PBoC) stimulus measures, including cuts to the reserve requirement ratio and repo rates, boosted global demand for raw materials, sparking a surge in metal prices and mining stocks.
The SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>) surged 4.2%, marking its best one-day performance since November 2023. The move reflected heightened optimism in the sector, which benefits heavily from demand in China, the world's largest consumer of raw materials.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Chart: Metals &amp; Mining Stocks Mark Best Day In Almost A Year</h3>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="371" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190-1024x371.png" alt="" class="wp-image-563348" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190-1024x371.png 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190-300x109.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190-768x278.png 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190-1536x556.png 1536w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/24101235/image-190.png 1920w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image: <a href="https://bzresearch.myclickfunnels.com/benzinga-pro-content-webinar-registration/?utm_source=BZprocontent092424&amp;t=be2bearmibe3na1">Benzinga Pro</a></figcaption></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Precious, Industrial Metals Shine</h3>
Gold prices hit yet another fresh record on Tuesday, rising 0.3% to $2,638 per ounce, the highest in history, as the metal benefited from expectations of higher liquidity from global central banks. 
The People&#8217;s Bank of China&#8217;s 50-basis-point cut to the reserve requirement ratio is expected to boost bank lending, while the reduction in key interest rates provides relief to heavily indebted sectors. This move is also seen as a strong signal that further monetary easing may be on the horizon.
Silver jumped 1.2%, while copper saw an even bigger rally, surging over 3%. The broad gains in metals prices were driven by expectations of increased Chinese demand, as the country&#8217;s easing measures are aimed at stimulating domestic economic activity.
Last week, the Federal Reserve slashed interest rates by 50 basis points to 4.75%-5%, offering another strong tailwind to metal commodities. 
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Mining Stocks, ETFs Post Gains</h3>
Mining-related stocks and ETFs are enjoying strong performance Tuesday. The Global X Copper Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/COPX#NYSE">COPX</a>) climbed over 6%, reflecting the sharp increase in copper prices, while the Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SIL#NYSE">SIL</a>) rose 2%.
Here's a look at the five strongest performers within the SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF stocks on Tuesday
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Company</th>
<th>Price</th>
<th>1-Day Return</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>MP Materials Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/MP#NYSE">MP</a>)</td>
<td>$15.72</td>
<td>+10.48%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Ramaco Resources, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/METC#NYSE">METC</a>)</td>
<td>$11.04</td>
<td>+8.83%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HCC#NYSE">HCC</a>)</td>
<td>$59.94</td>
<td>+7.81%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>)</td>
<td>$36.78</td>
<td>+7.45%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/CLF#NYSE">CLF</a>)</td>
<td>$12.74</td>
<td>+7.36%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Updated at 10:30 a.m. ET Photo via Shutterstock. </figcaption></figure>

Small Cap

Tech

BABA

KWEB

METC

Gold Breaks Records On China's Policy Stimulus: Mining, Metal Stocks Exhibit Strongest 1-Day Rally In 2024

Goldman Sachs (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GS#NYSE">GS</a>) reinforced its bullish outlook on gold, citing increased central bank demand and expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/federal-reserve" rel="noreferrer noopener">interest rate cut</a> tomorrow.
"While we see some tactical downside to gold prices under our economists' base case of a 25bp Fed cut on Wednesday, we reiterate our long gold trading recommendation and our price target of $2,700/oz by early 2025," the investment bank said in a note.
With the price of gold making new all-time highs, reaching 2589.60 on the spot market, the two-quarter upside price target of 5% doesn't seem much. At the moment, the market is pricing a 65% chance of a 50-basis-point cut tomorrow, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&amp;q=cme+fed+watchtool" rel="noreferrer noopener">per</a> the CME FedWatch tool.
Now read:<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener"> Why Interest Rate Cuts Won't Automatically Boost The Stock Market</a>
Gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty. With the U.S. recession still in discussion and a Fed pivot toward more accommodative monetary policies, investor interest in gold is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/09/40689742/goldman-sachs-bullish-on-gold-wall-street-giant-targets-2-700-by-early-2025-driven-" rel="noreferrer noopener">expected to remain strong</a>, accompanied by buying from foreign central banks, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/asia/24/05/38649656/how-chinas-central-bank-gold-buying-frenzy-drove-prices-to-record-highs-attracting-gen-z-to-gold-bea" rel="noreferrer noopener">particularly China</a>.
The Fed's anticipated rate cuts could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/09/40861213/why-interest-rate-cuts-wont-automatically-boost-the-stock-market" rel="noreferrer noopener">lower bond yields</a>, making gold more attractive as it does not generate interest.
In contrast to its positive gold outlook, the bank recently downgraded its projection for iron ore prices. The bank slashed its fourth-quarter 2024 forecast by $15 per metric ton, lowering it to $85 due to concerns of oversupply despite stabilizing demand from China.
Despite China's attempts at economic stimulus and rising steel demand, the broader economic slowdown and the real estate crisis have dampened demand for iron ore. Its futures briefly dipped below $90, reaching the lowest point in almost two years.
Goldman noted that while there might be short-term support due to restocking ahead of the holiday week in October, but the continued buildup of iron ore inventories is likely to drive prices further down.
Supply-demand imbalances have been a key issue for the market, particularly with major players like Brazil's Vale and Australia's BHP maintaining production levels.
Kallanish Consulting analyst Ian Roper explained the current price dynamics <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/international/2024/09/11/iron-ore-tests-floor-as-plunge-to-90-a-ton-puts-mines-at-risk/" rel="noreferrer noopener">for</a> Bloomberg.
"We need to eliminate about 100 million tons to balance this market, and to do that, we need prices to settle in the $80s," he noted.
Also read:
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<li><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/09/40875211/bhp-group-sounds-alarm-on-copper-supply-ai-and-ev-growth-could-drive-prices-soaring-report" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">BHP Group Sounds Alarm on Copper Supply, AI and EV Growth Could Drive Prices Soaring: Report</a></li>
</ul>
Benzinga Mining is the bridge between mining companies and retail investors. Reach out to <a href="mailto:licensing@benzinga.com" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">licensing@benzinga.com</a> to get started!
Image via Shutterstock

AAAU

GLDM

SGOL

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Goldman Sachs Sees Gold Higher, Takes A Downbeat Stance On Iron Ore

Alcoa Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AA#NYSE">AA</a>) shares are trading higher after it entered a binding agreement with Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma&#8217;aden) to sell its 25.1% ownership in the<a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/09/b40868965/alcoa-announces-agreement-to-sell-its-25-1-stake-in-maaden-joint-venture-to-maaden" rel="noreferrer noopener"> </a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/09/b40868965/alcoa-announces-agreement-to-sell-its-25-1-stake-in-maaden-joint-venture-to-maaden" rel="noreferrer noopener">Ma&#8217;aden Joint Venture</a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/09/b40868965/alcoa-announces-agreement-to-sell-its-25-1-stake-in-maaden-joint-venture-to-maaden" rel="noreferrer noopener"> for around $1.1 billion</a>.
The transaction comprises around 86 million Ma&#8217;aden shares, valued at $950 million based on the 30-day volume-weighted average price as of September 12, 2024, and $150 million in cash.
The 2009 Saudi joint venture includes Ma&#8217;aden Bauxite and Alumina Company&nbsp;(MBAC) and Ma&#8217;aden Aluminium Company&nbsp;(MAC). Alcoa holds 25.1% of the joint venture, valued at $545 million as of June 30, 2024.
As per the deal, Alcoa will retain its Ma&#8217;aden shares for at least three years, with one-third becoming transferable after the third, fourth, and fifth anniversaries of the transaction&#8217;s closing.
During this holding period, Alcoa can hedge or borrow against its shares. In certain conditions, the holding period may be shortened.
After the transaction, Alcoa will hold approximately 2% of Ma&#8217;aden&#8217;s outstanding shares.
The transaction is pending regulatory approvals, Ma&#8217;aden shareholder approval, and other customary conditions, with an expected closing in the first half of 2025.
William F. Oplinger, Alcoa&#8217;s President and CEO, said, &#8220;The transaction simplifies our portfolio, enhances visibility in the value of our investment in Saudi Arabia and provides greater financial flexibility for Alcoa, an important part of improving our long-term competitiveness.&#8221;
&#8220;Since 2009, Alcoa has been a valued partner of Ma&#8217;aden, and our aluminium business has benefited substantially from our strategic partnership,&#8221; stated Bob Wilt, Ma&#8217;aden&#8217;s CEO.
Alcoa closed the second quarter with a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/24/07/b39825296/alcoa-corporation-reports-second-quarter-2024-results" rel="noreferrer noopener">cash balance of $1.49 billion.</a>
Investors can gain exposure to the stock via&nbsp;Macquarie ETF Trust Macquarie Energy Transition ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PWER#NYSE">PWER</a>) and SPDR S&amp;P Metals &amp; Mining ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/XME#NYSE">XME</a>).
Price Action: AA shares are up 1.45% at $32.99 premarket at the last check Monday.
Photo via Shutterstock
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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