Northern Oil & Gas (NYSE:NOG) Azioni

NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC

Northern Oil & Gas

Northern Oil & Gas Inc is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties. Its principal business is crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production. The company's oil and natural gas sales come from three geographic areas in the United States: the Williston Basin (North Dakota and Montana), the Permian Basin (New Mexico and Texas), the Uinta Basin, and the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania and Ohio).

Northern Oil & Gas Inc

NONGFU SPRING UNSP/ADR by NONGFU SPRING CO LTD.

Nongfu Spring Co Ltd

Nogin Inc COM NEW

Nogin Inc

Nogin Inc WT EXP

Nogin Inc Warrants (01/03/2028)

B of A Securities analyst Noah Hungness maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Buy and raises the price target from $29 to $33.

News

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

B of A Securities Maintains Buy on Northern Oil & Gas, Raises Price Target to $33

Raymond James analyst John Freeman maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Strong Buy and raises the price target from $35 to $36.

Raymond James Maintains Strong Buy on Northern Oil & Gas, Raises Price Target to $36

Across the recent three months, 8 analysts have shared their insights on Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>), expressing a variety of opinions spanning from bullish to bearish.
The following table summarizes their recent ratings, shedding light on the changing sentiments within the past 30 days and comparing them to the preceding months.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th align="right">Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Indifferent</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bearish</th>
<th align="right">Bearish</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Total Ratings</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">6</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Last 30D</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1M Ago</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2M Ago</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3M Ago</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Insights from analysts' 12-month price targets are revealed, presenting an average target of $36.88, a high estimate of $45.00, and a low estimate of $30.00. This current average has decreased by 11.66% from the previous average price target of $41.75. 
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/1747159238_0.png" alt="price target chart" />
<h2>Interpreting Analyst Ratings: A Closer Look</h2>
An in-depth analysis of recent analyst actions unveils how financial experts perceive Northern Oil &amp; Gas. The following summary outlines key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Analyst</th>
<th>Analyst Firm</th>
<th>Action Taken</th>
<th>Rating</th>
<th>Current Price Target</th>
<th>Prior Price Target</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Mark Lear</td>
<td>Piper Sandler</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$30.00</td>
<td>$34.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>William Janela</td>
<td>Mizuho</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$33.00</td>
<td>$35.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Scott Hanold</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Maintains</td>
<td>Sector Perform</td>
<td>$34.00</td>
<td>$34.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Scott Hanold</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Sector Perform</td>
<td>$34.00</td>
<td>$40.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Noah Hungness</td>
<td>B of A Securities</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$41.00</td>
<td>$48.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Devin McDermott</td>
<td>Morgan Stanley</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Equal-Weight</td>
<td>$38.00</td>
<td>$43.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Paul Diamond</td>
<td>Citigroup</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
<td>$55.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Scott Hanold</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Sector Perform</td>
<td>$40.00</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Key Insights:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Action Taken: In response to dynamic market conditions and company performance, analysts update their recommendations. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise', or 'Lower' their stance, it signifies their reaction to recent developments related to Northern Oil &amp; Gas. This insight gives a snapshot of analysts' perspectives on the current state of the company.</li>
<li>Rating: Delving into assessments, analysts assign qualitative values, from 'Outperform' to 'Underperform'. These ratings communicate expectations for the relative performance of Northern Oil &amp; Gas compared to the broader market.</li>
<li>Price Targets: Understanding forecasts, analysts offer estimates for Northern Oil &amp; Gas's future value. Examining the current and prior targets provides insight into analysts' changing expectations.</li>
</ul>
For valuable insights into Northern Oil &amp; Gas's market performance, consider these analyst evaluations alongside crucial financial indicators. Stay well-informed and make prudent decisions using our Ratings Table.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NOG/analyst-ratings?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=analyst-ratings&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Stay up to date on Northern Oil &amp; Gas analyst ratings.</a>
<h2>Delving into Northern Oil &amp; Gas's Background</h2>
Northern Oil &amp; Gas Inc is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties. Its principal business is crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production. The company's oil and natural gas sales come from three geographic areas in the United States: the Williston Basin (North Dakota and Montana), the Permian Basin (New Mexico and Texas), the Uinta Basin, and the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania and Ohio).
<h3>Northern Oil &amp; Gas's Economic Impact: An Analysis</h3>
Market Capitalization Analysis: Below industry benchmarks, the company's market capitalization reflects a smaller scale relative to peers. This could be attributed to factors such as growth expectations or operational capacity.
Revenue Growth: Northern Oil &amp; Gas's remarkable performance in 3M is evident. As of 31 March, 2025, the company achieved an impressive revenue growth rate of 8.5%. This signifies a substantial increase in the company's top-line earnings. In comparison to its industry peers, the company trails behind with a growth rate lower than the average among peers in the Energy sector.
Net Margin: Northern Oil &amp; Gas's net margin surpasses industry standards, highlighting the company's exceptional financial performance. With an impressive 23.95% net margin, the company effectively manages costs and achieves strong profitability.
Return on Equity (ROE): Northern Oil &amp; Gas's ROE stands out, surpassing industry averages. With an impressive ROE of 5.89%, the company demonstrates effective use of equity capital and strong financial performance.
Return on Assets (ROA): The company's ROA is a standout performer, exceeding industry averages. With an impressive ROA of 2.46%, the company showcases effective utilization of assets.
Debt Management: With a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.96, Northern Oil &amp; Gas faces challenges in effectively managing its debt levels, indicating potential financial strain.
<h2>The Basics of Analyst Ratings</h2>
Benzinga tracks 150 analyst firms and reports on their stock expectations. Analysts typically arrive at their conclusions by predicting how much money a company will make in the future, usually the upcoming five years, and how risky or predictable that company's revenue streams are.
Analysts attend company conference calls and meetings, research company financial statements, and communicate with insiders to publish their ratings on stocks. Analysts typically rate each stock once per quarter or whenever the company has a major update.
Beyond their standard evaluations, some analysts contribute predictions for metrics like growth estimates, earnings, and revenue, furnishing investors with additional guidance. Users of analyst ratings should be mindful that this specialized advice is shaped by human perspectives and may be subject to variability.
Which Stocks Are Analysts Recommending Now?
Benzinga Edge gives you instant access to all major analyst upgrades, downgrades, and price targets. Sort by accuracy, upside potential, and more. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-checkout/?t=be8be9arja3be22bz21&amp;adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=analyst-ratings&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Click here to stay ahead of the market</a>.
This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

Beyond The Numbers: 8 Analysts Discuss Northern Oil & Gas Stock

Piper Sandler analyst Mark Lear maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $34 to $30.

Piper Sandler Maintains Neutral on Northern Oil & Gas, Lowers Price Target to $30

Mizuho analyst William Janela maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Neutral and lowers the price target from $35 to $33.

Mizuho Maintains Neutral on Northern Oil & Gas, Lowers Price Target to $33

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Shares of energy stocks are trading higher amid a rise in the price of oil after the US and China agreed to a temporary reduction in most tariffs. The commodity may be experiencing strength amid escalating conflict between Pakistan and India.

Northern Oil & Gas shares are trading higher after the company reported better-than-expected Q1 financial results.

Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) reported quarterly earnings of $1.33 per share which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.12 by 18.75 percent. This is a 3.91 percent increase over earnings of $1.28 per share from the same period last year. The company reported quarterly sales of $576.95 million which beat the analyst consensus estimate of $560.82 million by 2.88 percent. This is a 8.44 percent increase over sales of $532.04 million the same period last year.

Earnings

Earnings Beats

Northern Oil & Gas Q1 Adj. EPS $1.33 Beats $1.12 Estimate, Sales $576.95M Beat $560.82M Estimate

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Earnings Scheduled For April 29, 2025

<a href="https://noginc.com/sustainability/default.aspx">https://noginc.com/sustainability/default.aspx</a>

General

NOG Reveals 2024 ESG Report

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Shares of energy stocks are trading higher as the price of oil rises. Oil has gained amid overall market strength following US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's reported remarks about trade de-escalation with China. Recent Iran sanctions may also be driving supply uncertainty.

RBC Capital analyst Scott Hanold reiterates Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Sector Perform and maintains $34 price target.

Reiteration

RBC Capital Reiterates Sector Perform on Northern Oil & Gas, Maintains $34 Price Target

Northern Oil and Gas Inc (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) shares are rising in extended trading Wednesday after the company provided an update on first-quarter hedging results <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/04/b44852024/nog-provides-update-on-first-quarter-hedging-results-and-shareholder-returns">and shareholder returns</a>.
What Happened: Northern Oil and Gas reported estimated unrealized mark-to-market gains on derivatives of $9 million to $10 million for the first quarter. The unrealized gains were driven primarily by changes to the value of the company&#8217;s oil derivatives portfolio.
Northern Oil And Gas said realized hedge gains were an estimated $11 million to $12 million in the quarter, primarily driven by the company&#8217;s crude oil and Waha basis hedges. 
Northern Oil and Gas noted it added &#8220;substantial&#8221; hedges since its fourth quarter report, including hedges to oil, natural gas and Waha, Midland-Cushing and M2 basis hedges.
The company also provided an update on shareholder returns. Northern Oil and Gas said it paid dividends of approximately $42 million during the first quarter. In February, the company declared a dividend of 45 cents per share, up 7% compared to the prior quarterly dividend. The dividend is payable on April 30.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/25/04/44852989/kinder-morgan-q1-earnings-revenue-beat-eps-miss-forward-guidance-our-company-can-be-a-safe-haven-during-the-storm">Kinder Morgan Q1 Earnings: Revenue Beat, EPS Miss, Forward Guidance — &#8216;Our Company Can Be A Safe Haven During The Storm&#8217;</a>
Northern Oil and Gas also said it repurchased 499,100 shares during the quarter at an average price of $30.07. Year-to-date shareholder returns are currently around $57 million, the company said.
Northern Oil and Gas is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings after the market close on April 29. Analysts are looking for adjusted earnings of 11 cents per share and revenue of $556.94 million, per <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a> estimates.
NOG Price Action: <a href="http://benzinga.com/quote/nog">Northern Oil And Gas shares</a> were up 4.43% at $23.95 after-hours at the time of publication Wednesday, according to <a href="http://pro.benzinga.com">Benzinga Pro</a>.
Photo: <a href="https://www.shutterstock.com/g/color+space+illusion">fotokaleinar</a>/Shutterstock.

Dividends

Commodities

Buybacks

After-Hours Center

Movers

Northern Oil And Gas Stock Climbs On Q1 Hedging Results, Shareholder Return Update: What You Need To Know

RBC Capital analyst Scott Hanold maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Sector Perform and lowers the price target from $40 to $34.

RBC Capital Maintains Sector Perform on Northern Oil & Gas, Lowers Price Target to $34

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Shares of energy companies are trading lower as stocks pull back after surging Wednesday following President Trump's tariff pause announcement.

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Shares of energy stocks are trading higher following President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China.

B of A Securities analyst Noah Hungness maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Buy and lowers the price target from $48 to $41.

B of A Securities Maintains Buy on Northern Oil & Gas, Lowers Price Target to $41

6 analysts have expressed a variety of opinions on Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) over the past quarter, offering a diverse set of opinions from bullish to bearish.
Summarizing their recent assessments, the table below illustrates the evolving sentiments in the past 30 days and compares them to the preceding months.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th></th>
<th align="right">Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bullish</th>
<th align="right">Indifferent</th>
<th align="right">Somewhat Bearish</th>
<th align="right">Bearish</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Total Ratings</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">4</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Last 30D</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>1M Ago</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2M Ago</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">2</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>3M Ago</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">1</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
<td align="right">0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Providing deeper insights, analysts have established 12-month price targets, indicating an average target of $43.0, along with a high estimate of $55.00 and a low estimate of $35.00. Highlighting a 6.87% decrease, the current average has fallen from the previous average price target of $46.17. 
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/1743105669_0.png" alt="price target chart" />
<h2>Investigating Analyst Ratings: An Elaborate Study</h2>
The standing of Northern Oil &amp; Gas among financial experts becomes clear with a thorough analysis of recent analyst actions. The summary below outlines key analysts, their recent evaluations, and adjustments to ratings and price targets.
<table>
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Analyst</th>
<th>Analyst Firm</th>
<th>Action Taken</th>
<th>Rating</th>
<th>Current Price Target</th>
<th>Prior Price Target</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Devin McDermott</td>
<td>Morgan Stanley</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Equal-Weight</td>
<td>$38.00</td>
<td>$43.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Paul Diamond</td>
<td>Citigroup</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
<td>$55.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Scott Hanold</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Sector Perform</td>
<td>$40.00</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Mark Lear</td>
<td>Piper Sandler</td>
<td>Lowers</td>
<td>Neutral</td>
<td>$35.00</td>
<td>$37.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Neal Dingmann</td>
<td>Truist Securities</td>
<td>Raises</td>
<td>Buy</td>
<td>$55.00</td>
<td>$52.00</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Scott Hanold</td>
<td>RBC Capital</td>
<td>Maintains</td>
<td>Sector Perform</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
<td>$45.00</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Key Insights:</h3>
<ul>
<li>Action Taken: In response to dynamic market conditions and company performance, analysts update their recommendations. Whether they 'Maintain', 'Raise', or 'Lower' their stance, it signifies their reaction to recent developments related to Northern Oil &amp; Gas. This insight gives a snapshot of analysts' perspectives on the current state of the company.</li>
<li>Rating: Analysts assign qualitative assessments to stocks, ranging from 'Outperform' to 'Underperform'. These ratings convey the analysts' expectations for the relative performance of Northern Oil &amp; Gas compared to the broader market.</li>
<li>Price Targets: Analysts navigate through adjustments in price targets, providing estimates for Northern Oil &amp; Gas's future value. Comparing current and prior targets offers insights into analysts' evolving expectations.</li>
</ul>
Capture valuable insights into Northern Oil &amp; Gas's market standing by understanding these analyst evaluations alongside pertinent financial indicators. Stay informed and make strategic decisions with our Ratings Table.
<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NOG/analyst-ratings?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=analyst-ratings&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Stay up to date on Northern Oil &amp; Gas analyst ratings.</a>
<h2>Get to Know Northern Oil &amp; Gas Better</h2>
Northern Oil &amp; Gas Inc is an independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas properties. Its principal business is crude oil and natural gas exploration, development, and production. The company's oil and natural gas sales come from three geographic areas in the United States: the Williston Basin (North Dakota and Montana), the Permian Basin (New Mexico and Texas), the Uinta Basin, and the Appalachian Basin (Pennsylvania and Ohio).
<h3>A Deep Dive into Northern Oil &amp; Gas's Financials</h3>
Market Capitalization Analysis: The company's market capitalization is above the industry average, indicating that it is relatively larger in size compared to peers. This may suggest a higher level of investor confidence and market recognition.
Revenue Growth: Northern Oil &amp; Gas's remarkable performance in 3 months is evident. As of 31 December, 2024, the company achieved an impressive revenue growth rate of 0.56%. This signifies a substantial increase in the company's top-line earnings. As compared to its peers, the revenue growth lags behind its industry peers. The company achieved a growth rate lower than the average among peers in Energy sector.
Net Margin: Northern Oil &amp; Gas's net margin surpasses industry standards, highlighting the company's exceptional financial performance. With an impressive 13.06% net margin, the company effectively manages costs and achieves strong profitability.
Return on Equity (ROE): The company's ROE is a standout performer, exceeding industry averages. With an impressive ROE of 3.09%, the company showcases effective utilization of equity capital.
Return on Assets (ROA): Northern Oil &amp; Gas's ROA excels beyond industry benchmarks, reaching 1.35%. This signifies efficient management of assets and strong financial health.
Debt Management: The company faces challenges in debt management with a debt-to-equity ratio higher than the industry average. With a ratio of 1.02, caution is advised due to increased financial risk.
<h2>The Significance of Analyst Ratings Explained</h2>
Analyst ratings serve as essential indicators of stock performance, provided by experts in banking and financial systems. These specialists diligently analyze company financial statements, participate in conference calls, and engage with insiders to generate quarterly ratings for individual stocks.
Some analysts also offer predictions for helpful metrics such as earnings, revenue, and growth estimates to provide further guidance as to what to do with certain tickers. It is important to keep in mind that while stock and sector analysts are specialists, they are also human and can only forecast their beliefs to traders.
Which Stocks Are Analysts Recommending Now?
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This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and reviewed by an editor.

Beyond The Numbers: 6 Analysts Discuss Northern Oil & Gas Stock

Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott maintains Northern Oil &amp; Gas (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NOG#NYSE">NOG</a>) with a Equal-Weight and lowers the price target from $43 to $38.

Morgan Stanley Maintains Equal-Weight on Northern Oil & Gas, Lowers Price Target to $38

Having a falling stock market isn't enough.
Apparently, several commodity sectors, most notably crude oil, have decided to get in on the action as well. Oil prices have been dropping sharply over the past week, caught in the whirlwind of turmoil, drama, and just a whole mess of market-rocking stories.
Crude oil is trading on the expectation of a weakening U.S. economy, and that is absolutely a possibility. The markets are growing increasingly anxious about stagflation creeping into the United States.
Will it happen? Maybe, maybe not—but it's on the table.
&nbsp;Inflationary pressures, particularly from tariffs, are adding fuel to the fire.
&nbsp;Just ask the big three car manufacturers: if those Canadian tariffs had stayed in place, car prices in the U.S. would have skyrocketed by 25%, punishing not the folks we imposed the tariff on, but American consumers.
Tariffs tend to restrict global trade, and when you factor in the potential for mass layoffs in government sectors, you start getting a picture of an economy slowing down, even as inflation remains sticky.
That's the textbook definition of stagflation, and it's not exactly great for oil and gas demand.
The United States has been one of the primary drivers of oil and gas demand, despite some, shall we say, moderately to completely misguided policies of the previous administration when it came to energy.
Meanwhile, President Trump keeps touting his &#8220;Drill, baby, drill&#8221; strategy, promising a surge in production.
&nbsp;But here's the thing: he forgot to mention how exactly he's going to convince oil companies to abandon fiscal responsibility and ramp up production, thereby lowering commodity prices and hurting their own bottom line.
&nbsp;It doesn't quite add up.
All this uncertainty? It's hitting oil and gas stocks hard.
&nbsp;Take the VanEck Oil Services ETF, down 17% over the past year and already off another 8% this year.
&nbsp;Clearly, the market thinks nobody's ever going to work in the oil and gas patch again.
Here is &nbsp;where things get interesting. The oil services industry is ripe for consolidation, and we're going to see more of it in the months ahead.
Expect increased activist activity as well. This is something &nbsp;we will keep a close eye on.
The (Ticker: XLE) is basically flat on the year so far, but we're well off December highs of nearly $98, now trading around $86.
So, oil and gas has been in a bit of a mini bear market. It's not a full-blown oil panic just yet, but we can't rule that out either.
Of course, OPEC+ decided they wanted a piece of the action.
&nbsp;Last week, they announced an increase in oil production, the first in several years.
For a while, they had been cutting production to keep prices elevated in the aftermath of COVID and the global slowdown.
But with economic weakness persisting in Europe and China, they decided it was time to open the taps.
Speaking of China, they wrapped up their latest high-profile economic meeting, the so-called Two Sessions, and they're targeting 5% growth this year.
&nbsp;Sounds great, right?
But with their ongoing real estate crisis and internal economic difficulties, hitting that number is no sure bet. The potential for continued weak Chinese oil demand is adding more uncertainty to the global picture.
What happens if a peace agreement is reached in Ukraine? Russian oil and gas restrictions could be lifted, which would bring even more supply onto the market.
Most of that would likely flow to China, further reducing the need for imports from Western and Middle Eastern producers.
That, my friends, is yet another factor weighing on oil prices.
But despite all this bearishness, don't forget that crude oil demand is still on the rise.
We may be in the doldrums now, but long-term, supply and demand dynamics are still positive.
That said, the U.S. is not in &#8220;drill, baby, drill&#8221; mode. Oil production growth slowed significantly last year, marking one of the smallest increases in years.
While natural gas production remains strong, there's been no serious bearish talk about gas prices.
Now, here's where it gets really messy: refining.
The U.S. refining industry is built to process heavy crude. We spent decades importing it, so we set up refineries along the Gulf Coast and in California to handle the heavy, sulfur-rich stuff.
Guess what?
We're now one&nbsp; of the world's top producers of light, sweet crude, and our refining infrastructure just isn't designed for it.
Converting a refinery to handle light crude costs hundreds of millions, potentially billions—of dollars, and getting the permits to build a new one?
&nbsp;Forget it. The only thing harder than getting a new refinery approved is getting a nuclear power plant built.
Between federal, state, and local governments, plus the inevitable backlash from environmental and citizen groups, new refining capacity is a distant dream.
Most of our imported crude comes from three places: Mexico, Venezuela, and Canada. And yet, we're either not trading with them or actively engaged in trade disputes. Venezuela's output just took a hit as the Trump administration gave Chevron a 30-day notice to shut down all Venezuelan crude operations. That's 50,000 barrels a day—gone. And with Venezuela still under heavy restrictions, that oil isn't coming back anytime soon.
So, what does this all mean for crude prices? More near-term weakness, probably.
Longer-term, the fundamentals point to higher prices.
We've still got tension in the Middle East, and Ukraine-Russia negotiations could fall apart in an instant. In fact, just last week, Russia ramped up military activity, attacking Ukrainian energy infrastructure with drones and airstrikes.
We're not out of the woods.
Historically, insider purchases in oil and gas firms have been highly predictive of subsequent rebounds. During previous downturns such as the 2008–2009 financial crisis, the 2014–2016 oil crash, and the COVID-19 collapse in early 2020, insiders stepped up their buying, signaling confidence in the long-term fundamentals despite widespread market pessimism.
Empirical evidence backs this up. During the 2014–2016 oil crash, when crude prices plunged from ~$100 to below $30 per barrel, energy executives aggressively bought shares.
Companies like Occidental Petroleum (Ticker: OXY), Diamondback Energy (Ticker: FANG), and Pioneer Natural Resources later posted double-digit annualized returns from 2016–2018.
A similar pattern emerged in 2020, when oil briefly went negative—insiders at companies like Apache (Ticker: APA), Devon Energy (Ticker: DNV), and ExxonMobil (Ticker: XOM) made significant purchases, and their stocks multiplied several-fold over the next 12–18 months.
We are starting to see that kind of insider activity in the oilpatch once again
&nbsp;Over at Permian Resources (Ticker: PR), board member William J. Quinn just bought 750,000 shares or$9.5 million worth. Quinn also picked up 300,000 shares last September.
Permian Resources is the biggest operator in the Delaware Basin and has been on a buying spree. They picked up Earthstone in 2023, financed entirely with equity, and expect to add over $225 million in annual cost savings. They have $2.5 billion in liquidity, and their debt was just upgraded by Moody's, S&amp;P, and Fitch.
The stock is trading under book value and at a single-digit P/E. That's the kind of setup we like.
Meanwhile, Dorchester Minerals (Ticker: DMLP), one of my favorite royalty trusts, is seeing insider buying. CEO Bradley Ehrman just added to his stake, and the Dorchester Minerals Operating Company has been steadily buying shares.
This trust collects royalties on oil and gas production, with no operational costs. The dividend yield should end up around 10% this year.
Northern Oil and Gas (Ticker: NOG) has also seen a shift.
&nbsp;For most of the last year insiders were selling&nbsp; small amounts of stock.
That changed last week. Directors Bahram Akhradi and Stuart Lasher just bought over $1.6 million worth of stock.
The stock is down to $27.88 from last year's high of $44.
With 11,000 wells across top basins, a focus on free cash flow, and a 6.5% dividend yield, this is another one that looks positioned for an eventual rebound.
Oil stocks have taken a beating.
But if you follow the insiders, they're telling you something: prices have fallen too far. And when oil bounces back—and it will—these companies are set up to win.

Opinion

DMLP

Alpha Buying: Navigating the Complex Future of Oil Under Trump's Policy Push

Press Releases

NOG Provides Fourth Quarter 2024 Operational Update; Provides Initial 2025 Capital and Production Guidance; Announces Signing of $40 Million Bolt-On Acquisition in First Quarter

NOG Announces Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Results; Provides Detailed 2025 Guidance

NOG CEO Nick O'Grady to Present at the Raymond James 46th Annual Institutional Investors Conference on March 4, 2025

NOG Board Approves Increase in Share Buyback Authorization; Adds $100 Million to Existing Program

NOG Schedules First Quarter 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

NOG Provides Update on First Quarter Hedging Results and Shareholder Returns

NOG Publishes 2024 ESG Report

NOG Announces First Quarter 2025 Results

NOG Declares $0.45 Quarterly Cash Dividend, 12.5% Increase Year-over-Year

NOG Expands Credit Facility

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California Resources Corporation Common Stock

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Dorchester Minerals, L.P. - Common Units Representing Limited Partnership Interests

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HighPeak Energy

Kosmos Energy

Kimbell Royalty Partners Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests

Kimbell Royalty Partners

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Magnolia Oil & Gas

Mach Natural Resources LP Common Units representing Limited Partner Interests

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Matador Resources

Murphy Oil

Sabine Royalty

SM Energy

Sable Offshore

Sitio Royalties Corp. Class A Common Stock

Sitio Royalties

Talos Energy

TXO Partners, L.P. Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests

TXO Partners

Vista Energy S.A.B. de C.V. American Depositary Shares, each representing one series A share, with no par value

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BENZINGA NEL MONDO