Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) Azioni

Royal Gold

Royal Gold Inc enquires and manages precious metal royalties and streams with a focus on gold. The company purchases a percentage of the metal produced from a mineral property for an initial payment without assuming responsibility for mining operations. Similarly, precious metal streams are purchase agreements with mine operators providing the right to purchase all or a portion of one or more metals produced from a mine in exchange for an upfront deposit payment. Generally, Royal Gold does not work on the properties in which it holds royalty and streaming assets. The company owns a portfolio of producing, development, evaluation, and exploration royalties and streams, and the majority of group revenue is generated from Canada, Mexico, Chile, and the United States.

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Royal Gold's (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NYSE">RGLD</a>) short percent of float has fallen 43.78% since its last report. The company recently reported that it has 1.07 million shares sold short, which is 2.44% of all regular shares that are available for trading. Based on its trading volume, it would take traders 1.86 days to cover their short positions on average.
<h3>Why Short Interest Matters</h3>
Short interest is the number of shares that have been sold short but have not yet been covered or closed out. <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-short-a-stock?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">Short selling</a> is when a trader sells shares of a company they do not own, with the hope that the price will fall. Traders make money from short selling if the price of the stock falls and they lose if it rises.
Short interest is important to track because it can act as an indicator of market sentiment towards a particular stock. An increase in short interest can signal that investors have become more bearish, while a decrease in short interest can signal they have become more bullish.
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/short-interest?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">List of the most shorted stocks</a>
<h3>Royal Gold Short Interest Graph (3 Months)</h3>
<img src="https://www.benzinga.com/files/images/story/2025/1753214429_0.png" alt="short_fig" />
As you can see from the chart above the percentage of shares that are sold short for Royal Gold has declined since its last report. This does not mean that the stock is going to rise in the near-term but traders should be aware that less shares are being shorted.
<h3>Comparing Royal Gold's Short Interest Against Its Peers</h3>
Peer comparison is a popular technique amongst analysts and investors for gauging how well a company is performing. A company's peer is another company that has similar characteristics to it, such as industry, size, age, and financial structure. You can find a company's peer group by reading its 10-K, proxy filing, or by doing your own similarity analysis.
According to <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/">Benzinga Pro</a>, Royal Gold's peer group average for short interest as a percentage of float is 3.94%, which means the company has less short interest than most of its peers.
Did you know that increasing short interest can actually be bullish for a stock? <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/money/how-to-make-money-on-a-short-squeeze?adType=benzinga-insights&amp;ad=short-interest&amp;campaign=wallstreetadvantage">This post by Benzinga Money explains how you can profit from it.</a>
This article was generated by Benzinga's automated content engine and was reviewed by an editor.

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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Nova Minerals (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NVA#NYSE">NVA</a>)</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On July 15, Nova Materials announced it has priced a $11.1 million public offering. The company's stock fell around 30% over the past month and has a 52-week low of $4.35.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 27.7</li>
<li>NVA Price Action: Shares of Nova Minerals fell 1% to close at $9.16 on Wednesday.</li>
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<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Namib Minerals (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NAMM#NASDAQ">NAMM</a>)&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On June 5, Namib Minerals and Hennessy Capital Investment Corp. VI announced the closing of business combination. The company's stock fell around 51% over the past month and <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/NAMM">has a 52-week low</a> of $6.65.</li>
<li>RSI Value: 22.6</li>
<li>NAMM Price Action: Shares of Namib Minerals fell 0.5% to close at $7.87 on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Edge Stock Ratings: Value at 17.34.</li>
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<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/namm"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="407" height="181" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074223/image-213.png" alt="" class="wp-image-989585" style="width:292px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074223/image-213.png 407w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074223/image-213-300x133.png 300w" sizes="(max-width: 407px) 100vw, 407px" /></a></figure>
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Royal Gold Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>)</h3>
<ul class="wp-block-list">
<li>On July 8, the company reported updates for it's the second-quarter stream segment sales and details for its release of the second quarter. The company's stock fell around 12% over the past month and has a 52-week <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/RGLD">low of $125.68.</a></li>
<li>RSI Value: 28.8</li>
<li>RGLD Ltd Price Action: Shares of Royal Gold fell 0.1% to close at $157.67 on Wednesday.</li>
<li>Benzinga Pro&#8217;s signals feature notified of a potential breakout in <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0717">RGLD shares</a>. </li>
</ul>
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full is-resized"><a href="https://www.benzinga.com/pro/register?utm_adType=bzprocontent&amp;utm_campaign=14daytrial&amp;utm_ad=0717"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="901" height="832" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074437/image-214.png" alt="" class="wp-image-989593" style="width:622px;height:auto" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074437/image-214.png 901w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074437/image-214-300x277.png 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/17074437/image-214-768x709.png 768w" sizes="(max-width: 901px) 100vw, 901px" /></a></figure>
Learn more about BZ Edge Rankings—click to see scores for other stocks in the sector and s<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/premium/ideas/benzinga-edge-2#:~:text=Turn%20Market%20Chaos,when%20markets%20rebound">ee how they compare.</a>
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Termination Rights
 &nbsp;
The Sandstorm Agreement contains certain termination rights for both Royal Gold and Sandstorm, including, among others: (i) mutual consent by Royal Gold and Sandstorm; (ii) by either party if the Sandstorm Arrangement shall not have been consummated on or prior to January 6, 2026 (which date may be extended until April 6, 2026 by either party if requisite regulatory approvals shall not have been obtained or denied by a non-appealable decision); (iii) by either party if after the date of the Sandstorm Agreement, there is enacted, made or enforced any applicable law, or any applicable law is amended, that makes consummation of the Sandstorm Arrangement illegal or otherwise prohibits or enjoins Royal Gold or Sandstorm from consummating the Sandstorm Arrangement and such applicable law, prohibition or enjoinment shall have become final and non-appealable; (iv) by either party if either the Sandstorm Requisite Shareholder Approval or Royal Gold Stockholder Approval shall not have been obtained; (v) by a party if the other party breaches any of its representations, warranties or covenants in the Sandstorm Agreement in a manner that would cause the corresponding condition to not be satisfied, subject to certain conditions; (vi) by a party if the other party's board of directors changes its recommendation with respect to the Sandstorm Arrangement or the other party breaches applicable non-solicitation restrictions in any material respect; (vii) by Royal Gold if the Horizon Agreement is terminated in accordance with its terms, subject to certain conditions, or Sandstorm shall have failed to comply with its obligations under a support and voting agreement entered into with Royal Gold; and (viii) by a party in order for such party to enter into a definitive agreement with respect to a superior competing business combination transaction prior to receiving approval from such party's shareholders (provided that such party has not materially breached the applicable non-solicitation restrictions).
 &nbsp;
If the Sandstorm Agreement is terminated in certain specified circumstances, Royal Gold or Sandstorm would be required to pay the other party a termination fee of $200 million or $130 million, respectively, or reimburse the other party for up to $5 million of expenses of the other party's representatives.

Contracts

Royal Gold Says If Sandstorm Agreement Is Terminated Under Certain Circumstances, Royal Gold Or Sandstorm To Pay Other Party Termination Fee Of $200M Or $130M, Respectively

Central banks remain a key support in the gold market, while silver continues to attract investor inflows and platinum enters a potential consolidation phase, according to the latest update from <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/topic/precious-metals">precious metals specialist</a> Heraeus.
In May 2025, central banks added a net 20 tons (t) of gold to their reserves, led by Kazakhstan, Türkiye, and Poland. Kitco <a href="https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-07-07/central-banks-go-gold-investors-still-see-value-silver-platinum-may">reported</a> that Heraeus analyst wrote this level was "close to but still below the 12-month average of 27 t," yet reflective of resilient sentiment.
Although it is slightly slowing, the sentiment remains overwhelmingly bullish. The survey revealed that 95% of central banks expect global gold holdings to reach a record high, and 43% plan to increase their reserves.
This buying continues a multi-year trend. Central banks have collectively acquired over 1,000 tons of gold annually for the past three years, well above the long-term average. This consistent accumulation has helped anchor gold prices, which have climbed from around $2,000 per ounce to $3,300 per ounce over the last 18 months, despite traditional correlations, such as those with U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, weakening.
"Ongoing central bank gold buying is expected to continue to underpin gold price performance through the remainder of 2025," Heraeus added.
<h3 class="wp-block-heading">Mergers And Acquisitions</h3>
Meanwhile, the gold industry has also seen activity in mergers and acquisitions. Equinox Gold (AMEX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EQX#AMEX">EQX</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/legal/25/02/43938698/equinox-gold-buys-calibre-mining-for-1-8-billion-creating-canadas-second-largest-gold-producer">acquired Calibre Mining</a> in a $1.8 billion deal, creating the second-largest gold producer in Canada, while Royal Gold (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>) <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/m-a/25/07/46275779/royal-gold-acquires-sandstorm-and-horizon-in-bold-expansion-move">acquired Sandstorm Gold</a> in a $3.5 billion deal, on top of the $196 million cash deal for Horizon Copper Corp. A preference for all-share acquisitions indicates a focus on seeking synergies and preserving cash for capital expenditures.
Silver is also capturing investor interest. Heraeus highlighted that since early June, silver-backed ETFs have recorded net inflows of 990 t, with over 50% of year-to-date inflows occurring in this period. Most notably, the silver price stabilized above $36 per ounce— a level <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/45819573/silver-tops-36-triggering-a-generational-technical-breakout">not seen in over a decade</a>. Though high, silver still trails historic peaks when adjusted for inflation. The nominal record of nearly $50/oz in 1980 would equate to more than $180 per ounce in 2025 terms.
Heraeus notes that the gold-to-silver ratio currently stands at 90.3, significantly above the 10-year average of 80.2, which supports the view that silver has room to appreciate.
Finally, platinum may be entering a period of pause. After rallying for <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/commodities/25/06/46138446/investors-seek-gold-alternative-platinum-hits-1400-as-supply-deficit-deepens">five consecutive weeks</a> and reaching a high of $1,394 per ounce, Heraeus said price momentum may be slowing. They noted <a href="https://irhosted.profiledata.co.za/impala/2017_feeds/senspopup.aspx?id=517701">consolidation efforts</a> in South Africa, where Impala Platinum is merging its operations with those of Royal Bafokeng Platinum to reduce costs.
Despite mining inflation, recent cost-saving efforts and rising basket prices may support margins in the near term; however, analysts caution that "a more prolonged period of consolidation is possible" following the recent surge.
Price Watch: abrdn Physical Precious Metals ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLTR#NYSE">GLTR</a>) is up 26.19% year-to-date.
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Royal Gold shares are trading lower. The company reported updates for its Q2 2025 stream segment sales and details for its release of Q2 2025 results.

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>) (together with its subsidiaries, "Royal Gold" or the "Company," "we" or "our") announced today that its wholly owned subsidiary, RGLD Gold AG, sold approximately 40,600 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs)1 comprised of approximately 32,200 ounces of gold, 578,700 ounces of silver and 1,100 tonnes of copper related to its streaming agreements during the three-month period ended June 30, 2025 (the "second quarter"). RGLD Gold AG had approximately 12,700 ounces of gold and 341,000 ounces of silver in inventory at June 30, 2025.
RGLD Gold AG's average realized gold, silver and copper prices for the second quarter were $3,248 per ounce, $32.91 per ounce and $9,210 per tonne ($4.18 per pound), respectively. Cost of sales was approximately $596 per GEO for the second quarter. Cost of sales is specific to the Company's streaming agreements and is the result of RGLD Gold AG's purchase of gold, silver or copper for cash payments at a set contractual price, or a percentage of the prevailing market price of gold, silver or copper when purchased.

Royal Gold's Subsidiary RGLD Gold AG Sells 40,600 Gold Equivalent Ounces Including 32,200 Gold, 578,700 Silver Ounces, And 1,100 Tonnes Copper In Q2 2025 At Average Prices Of $3,248/oz Gold, $32.91/oz Silver, And $9,210/tonne Copper

Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>) is making a decisive move to scale up in the precious metals streaming and royalty space through <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/07/n46270672/royal-gold-to-acquire-sandstorm-gold-royalties-and-horizon-copper-forming-large-scale-industry-lea" rel="noreferrer noopener">two simultaneous acquisitions</a>, a $3.5 billion all-share merger with Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAND#NYSE">SAND</a>) and a $196 million cash deal for Horizon Copper Corp. (OTC:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HNCUF#OTC">HNCUF</a>).
Under the terms, Sandstorm shareholders will receive 0.0625 Royal Gold shares for each share held, reflecting a 21% premium to its 20-day average price.
The Horizon acquisition values each share at 2.00 Canadian dollars, representing an 85% premium over its recent average. These deals aim to create a dominant North American player with deep asset diversity and enhanced cash flow strength.
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When finalized, the combined portfolio will comprise 393 streams and royalties, largely focused in the Americas, with 80 cash-flowing assets and 47 in development. Approximately 87% of its revenue will stem from precious metals, with gold alone contributing about 75% in 2025. No single asset will make up more than 13% of net asset value, significantly lowering risk from asset concentration.
Royal Gold will maintain its name post-merger, while Sandstorm investors will hold around 23% of the enlarged entity. Sandstorm&#8217;s CEO, Nolan Watson, called the agreement a &#8220;milestone&#8221; and noted the merger allows investors to participate in a stronger, more liquid company with long-term upside.
Horizon CEO Erfan Kazemi emphasized the value unlocked for shareholders as Horizon integrates its copper-heavy portfolio into a bigger precious metals platform.
The transaction adds key assets such as Mount Milligan in Canada, Pueblo Viejo in the Dominican Republic, and MARA in Argentina. Projects in Chile, South Africa, Türkiye, and Botswana round out a global footprint focused in mining-friendly regions. Development-stage investments like Hod Maden, Platreef, and Antamina are also expected to drive future organic growth.
Boards and special committees at all three companies have endorsed the deals. Final approval depends on shareholder votes, court proceedings, and regulatory sign-offs, including antitrust reviews in Canada and South Africa. Completion is anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2025, after which Sandstorm and Horizon shares will be delisted.
Royal Gold held <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com/pressreleases/25/05/b45265814/royal-gold-reports-record-earnings-for-the-first-quarter-and-a-strong-start-to-2025" rel="noreferrer noopener">$240.76 million</a> in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2025.
Related ETFs: VanEck Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GDX#NYSE">GDX</a>), iShares MSCI Global Metals &amp; Mining Producers ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PICK#NYSE">PICK</a>).
Price Action: SAND shares are trading higher by 5.30% to $10.14, and RGLD shares are trading lower by 8.36% to $164.80 at the last check Monday.
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Royal Gold Acquires Sandstorm And Horizon In Bold Expansion Move

Royal Gold shares are trading lower following an announcement that the company will acquire Sandstorm Gold for $3.5 billion,

Sandstorm Gold Ltd. ("Sandstorm Gold Royalties", "Sandstorm", or the "Company") (NYSE: <a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/sand#NYSE">SAND</a>) (TSX:SSL) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement with Royal Gold Inc.
Sandstorm Gold Ltd. ("Sandstorm Gold Royalties", "Sandstorm", or the "Company") (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAND#NYSE">SAND</a>) (TSX:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SSL#TSX">SSL</a>) is pleased to announce that the Company has entered into a definitive arrangement agreement with Royal Gold Inc. ("Royal Gold"), pursuant to which Royal Gold will acquire all of the issued and outstanding common shares of Sandstorm (the "Sandstorm Shares") in an all-share transaction with an implied value of approximately $3.5&nbsp;billion (the "Sandstorm Transaction"). Sandstorm shareholders will receive 0.0625 of a share of common stock of Royal Gold (each whole share, a "Royal Gold Share") for each Sandstorm Share held, implying a 21% premium to the 20-day volume-weighted average price ("VWAP") of the Sandstorm Shares for the period ended July 3, 2025, and a 17% premium to the closing price of the Sandstorm Shares on the New York Stock Exchange (the "NYSE") on July 3, 2025. Upon closing, existing Royal Gold and Sandstorm shareholders will own approximately 77% and 23%, of the issued and outstanding Royal Gold Shares on a fully diluted basis.

Sandstorm Gold Enters Agreement With Royal Gold, Under Which Royal Gold Will Acquire All Issued And Outstanding Shares Of Sandstorm In All-Share Deal With Implied Value Of $3.5B

Shares of precious metals are trading lower amid Israel-Iran ceasefire efforts.

Following gold's conspicuous correction in early April, the precious metal has marched steadily higher, with the latest tensions in the Middle East acting as a supporting catalyst. Subsequently, this backdrop may provide a tailwind for the mining sector, particularly for precious metal streaming management company Royal Gold Inc (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>).
Fundamentally, headlines are zeroed in on Israel's military strike against Iran, with the escalating conflict sparking two major concerns. First, Iran is <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/markets/macro-economic-events/25/06/45943707/us-economy-to-face-pretty-limited-impact-from-israel-iran-airstrikes-with-only-a-tiny-bit-recession-risk-say-economists">strategically positioned near the Strait of Hormuz</a>, which is a vital route for global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Second and more critically, lawmakers — including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) — have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/news/politics/25/06/45988135/bernie-sanders-slams-israels-illegal-attack-on-iran-says-absolutely-imperative-that-the-united-states-not-be-dragged-into-this-war">expressed deep anxieties</a> about the U.S. potentially being dragged into the conflict.
Given the seriousness of the matter, several sectors have attracted pragmatic (if not cynical) investment capital. Predictably, the precious metals ecosystem has been elevated as diplomatic solutions wane. Recently, benchmark exchange-traded funds, such as the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAU#NYSE">IAU</a>) and SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GLD#NYSE">GLD</a>) have <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/etfs/broad-u-s-equity-etfs/25/06/45983526/trump-wants-an-end-not-a-ceasefire-for-the-israel-iran-war-what-that-means-for-etfs">witnessed modest but consistent inflows</a>.
In fairness, as other publications have noted, RGLD stock isn't exactly the gold industry's standard bearer. At this moment, the consensus <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/rgld/analyst-ratings">analyst rating</a> for Royal Gold is 2.5, which is in Sell territory. In contrast, streaming competitor Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WPM#NYSE">WPM</a>) carries a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/wpm/analyst-ratings">3.0 rating</a> or Hold, while mining powerhouse Newmont Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>) is slightly better with a <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/quote/nem/analyst-ratings">3.2 rating</a>.
Nevertheless, RGLD stock appears to provide a more "readable" signal. From a more heuristic perspective, technical analysts will likely argue that RGLD is currently charting a bullish pennant formation. In April, the security popped higher but has since entered a consolidation phase of generally lower highs.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-full"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1001" height="598" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18152038/RGLD-stock-technical-analysis.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-954459" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18152038/RGLD-stock-technical-analysis.jpg 1001w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18152038/RGLD-stock-technical-analysis-300x179.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18152038/RGLD-stock-technical-analysis-768x459.jpg 768w" sizes="(max-width: 1001px) 100vw, 1001px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by TradingView</figcaption></figure>
Still, RGLD stock has also been charting higher lows, which lends credence to the idea that it could eventually break out of this consolidation zone. Contrast that with WPM or NEM, where the respective charts arguably lack a discernible pattern.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Using Statistics To Frame The Opportunity In RGLD Stock</h2>
Although RGLD stock enjoys both a fundamental and technical justification for bullishness, both these methodologies lack specificity. From an investor's point of view, the typical timeframe — usually a year or longer — provides the underlying thesis with considerable flexibility to pan out as forecasted. Unfortunately, traders (especially options traders) don't have that luxury.
It comes down to structure. Since options have an expiration date, a thesis has to materialize accurately in terms of magnitude (y-axis) and time (x-axis). To be sure, what raises the stakes is that when an options strategy goes sour, the entire principal — or worse if selling naked calls and puts — is at risk.
Still, the tremendous leverage that options provide consistently attracts market participants. For these folks, the decision to trade comes down to probabilities. However, in order to calculate probabilities that are relevant — the conditional variety — the language within the target dataset must be unified.
In that sense, both the fundamental and technical approaches suffer from the same dilemma: non-stationarity of the core measurement metric. For example, share prices frequently change over time, as do valuation ratios such as price to earnings. In order to conduct sensible statistical analysis, one must impose stationarity on the dataset. Converting price action into market breadth, which simply tracks accumulative and distributive sessions, is one viable solution.
<figure class="wp-block-image size-large"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" width="1024" height="576" src="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18151219/RGLD-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg" alt="" class="wp-image-954442" srcset="https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18151219/RGLD-stock-10wk-forecast-1024x576.jpg 1024w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18151219/RGLD-stock-10wk-forecast-300x169.jpg 300w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18151219/RGLD-stock-10wk-forecast-768x432.jpg 768w,https://editorial-assets.benzinga.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/18151219/RGLD-stock-10wk-forecast.jpg 1280w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption class="wp-element-caption">Image by author</figcaption></figure>
Under this framework, RGLD stock is on course toward printing a "4-6-U" sequence by this Friday: four up weeks, six down weeks, with a net positive trajectory across the 10-week period. A rare event, this sequence has only materialized 25 times in the trailing decade. Notably, in 72% of cases, the following week's price action results in upside, with a median return of 2.7%.
Should the implications of the 4-6-U pan out as projected, RGLD stock could breach $185 in short order, perhaps in a week or two. If the bulls maintain control of the market, a push toward the $190 level wouldn't be unreasonable, especially with the fundamental backdrop acting as a supporting element.
<h2 class="wp-block-heading">Aggressive Call Spreads For The Bullish Trader</h2>
Based on the market intelligence above, arguably the most aggressive but realistic trade is to buy the 180/185 bull call spread expiring July 18. This transaction involves buying the $180 call and simultaneously selling the $185 call, for a net debit paid of 280. Should RGLD stock rise through the short strike price ($185) at expiration, the maximum reward is $220, a payout of roughly 79%.
Those who want to take a little more risk may consider the 180/190 bull spread, also expiring July 18. This transaction involves a higher net debit paid of $445. However, the max reward stands at $555, translating to a payout of almost 125%.
In both trades, the appeal centers on the implied shift in sentiment regime. As a baseline, the chance that a long position in RGLD stock is profitable over any given week is only 52.29%. Therefore, the 4-6-U sequence statistically provides "free odds" for the bullish speculator.
To be 100% clear, this doesn't guarantee a positive outcome. Rather, for those who are already willing to take a risk in the options market, the use of conditional probabilities helps traders separate the wheat from the chaff empirically.
The opinions and views expressed in this content are those of the individual author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Benzinga. Benzinga is not responsible for the accuracy or reliability of any information provided herein. This content is for informational purposes only and should not be misconstrued as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Readers are asked not to rely on the opinions or information herein, and encouraged to do their own due diligence before making investing decisions.
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Photo: Shutterstock

Options

Options Corner: Safe-Haven Demand Could Spark A Golden Payout For This Royal Gold Call Spread

Shares of precious metals stocks are trading lower as gold prices fall after reports allege that Iran wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel. Investor optimism about potential resolutions to regional tensions may drive a rotation out of safe-haven assets.

Shares of precious metals stocks are trading higher as gold prices rise following Israel's strikes on Iran, which have lifted safe-haven assets.

Shares of precious metals stocks are trading higher as gold and silver prices rise amid dollar weakness.

BMO Capital analyst Matthew Murphy maintains Royal Gold (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>) with a Market Perform and raises the price target from $196 to $197.

Price Target

Analyst Ratings

BMO Capital Maintains Market Perform on Royal Gold, Raises Price Target to $197

Last week, gold and silver prices dropped after the U.S. and China agreed to temporarily reduce most tariffs on each other&#8217;s goods. This could be driving a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/45429569" rel="noreferrer noopener">rotation out of safe-haven assets</a>.
Most gold mining stocks were among the top ten large-cap worst performers in the last week. Are they in your portfolio?
<ol class="wp-block-list">
<li>UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/UNH#NYSE">UNH</a>) shares dipped 23.31%  in reaction to a media report on a possible investigation <a href="https://www.benzinga.com//node/45443695" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">for criminal Medicare fraud</a>.</li>
<li>Fiserv, Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/FI#NYSE">FI</a>) shares were down 9.46%.</li>
<li>Alamos Gold Inc. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AGI#NYSE">AGI</a>) shares declined 9.43%.</li>
<li>Agnico Eagle Mines (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AEM#NYSE">AEM</a>) stock fell 9.27%.</li>
<li>AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>) stock dived 9.06%.</li>
<li>Kinross Gold Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KGC#NYSE">KGC</a>) stock fell 8.96%.</li>
<li>Wheaton Precious Metals Corp (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/WPM#NYSE">WPM</a>) shares decreased 8.48%</li>
<li>Gold Fields Limited (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/GFI#NYSE">GFI</a>) shares were down 8.47%.</li>
<li>Barrick Mining Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/B#NYSE">B</a>) stock decreased 8.38%.</li>
<li>Royal Gold, Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>) stock dived 7.20%.</li>
</ol>
Image Via Shutterstock

Gold Mining Stocks Were Among Top 10 Large-Cap Losers Last Week (May 12-May 16): Are These In Your Portfolio?

Despite the falling gold prices after the stock market rebound, the gold mining companies are poised for growth as this expert highlights &#8220;record levels of free cash flow&#8221; for these companies over the next two years.
What Happened: The Macro Strategist at Crescat Capital, Otavio Costa, has underscored the data for the two-year forward free cash flow estimate for gold mining companies, highlighting the possibility of strong fundamental growth.
According to a chart shared by him, the free cash flow estimates of these companies surpass the expectation of the gold price level by the Philadelphia Gold &amp; Silver Exchange by 2027.
&#8220;Despite the recent pullback in gold, mining companies remain positioned to deliver record levels of free cash flow in the current environment,&#8221; he said in an X post.
This comes as the Gold Spot US Dollar fell 1.02% to hover around $3,145.09 per ounce during the publication of this piece. It was much lower than its recent record high of $3,500.33 per ounce.
&#8220;I've always found it compelling when prices of an asset decline even as fundamentals improve,&#8221; said Costa, adding that &#8220;Investors are gradually beginning to grasp the magnitude of what's unfolding, but in my view, we've already entered the Golden Age of Mining.&#8221;
<figure class="wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter"> 
<div class="wp-block-embed__wrapper">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="500" data-dnt="true">I've always found it compelling when prices of an asset decline even as fundamentals improve. Despite the recent pullback in gold, mining companies remain positioned to deliver record levels of free cash flow in the current environment. Investors are gradually beginning to… <a href="https://t.co/F6RGYWu9vu">pic.twitter.com/F6RGYWu9vu</a>
&mdash; Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) <a href="https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1922836052143657281?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 15, 2025</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
</figure>
See Also: <a href="https://www.benzinga.com/general/market-summary/25/05/45399940/warren-buffett-shows-how-patience-pays-98-of-his-160-billion-wealth-came-after-turning-65-thanks-the-power-of-compound-interest">Warren Buffett Shows How Patience Pays: 98% Of His $160 Billion Wealth Came After Turning 65, Thanks The Power Of ‘Compound Interest'</a>
Why It Matters: Here&#8217;s a list of some gold mining stocks that investors could consider as experts peg a possibility of higher cash flows in the future.
<figure class="wp-block-table is-style-stripes"> 
<table class="has-fixed-layout">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td>Stocks</td>
<td>YTD Performance</td>
<td>One Year Performance</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/HMY#NYSE">HMY</a>)</td>
<td>66.75%</td>
<td>50.59%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Perpetua Resources Corp. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/PPTA#NASDAQ">PPTA</a>)</td>
<td>4.16%</td>
<td>104.44%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Eldorado Gold Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/EGO#NYSE">EGO</a>)</td>
<td>10.90%</td>
<td>16.00%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SAND#NYSE">SAND</a>)</td>
<td>40.98%</td>
<td>41.23%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Iamgold Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/IAG#NYSE">IAG</a>)</td>
<td>9.68%</td>
<td>36.61%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Skeena Resources Ltd. (TSE: SKE)</td>
<td>14.77%</td>
<td>120.11%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/KGC#NYSE">KGC</a>)</td>
<td>36.54%</td>
<td>71.85%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Newmont Corporation (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/NEM#NYSE">NEM</a>)</td>
<td>26.82%</td>
<td>12.66%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Royal Gold Inc. (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/RGLD#NASDAQ">RGLD</a>)</td>
<td>23.11%</td>
<td>26.94%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Anglogold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/AU#NYSE">AU</a>)</td>
<td>63.80%</td>
<td>60.64%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</figure>
Price Action: The SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/SPY#NYSE">SPY</a>) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:<a class="ticker" href="https://www.benzinga.com/stock/QQQ#NASDAQ">QQQ</a>), which track the S&amp;P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, ended higher on Wednesday. The SPY was up 0.13% to $587.59, while the QQQ advanced 0.60% to $518.68, according to <a href="https://pro.benzinga.com/dashboard">Benzinga Pro</a> data.
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Image Via Shutterstock

Analyst Color

Macro Notification

Market Summary

Broad U.S. Equity ETFs

Futures

General

PPTA

Gold Miners Poised For Boom As Analyst Predicts 'Record Levels Of Free Cash Flow' Despite Price Dip: 'Golden Age Of Mining'

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Small Cap

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Legal

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